2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Angel of Death]

Based on the combined vote margins in the deciding states (WI+GA+AZ), this was a closer election than 2016 (PA+WI+MI)!

[emailking]

Based on the combined vote margins in the deciding states (WI+GA+AZ), this was a closer election than 2016 (PA+WI+MI)!

Pretty sad that Dems had to win the popular vote by 4%-5% to barely scrape by.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1328004838903279617?s=19

[DrScholl]

Based on the combined vote margins in the deciding states (WI+GA+AZ), this was a closer election than 2016 (PA+WI+MI)!

This framing is not exactly accurate. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were the deciding states here because Biden crossed 270 with them before Arizona and Georgia were called. When you add up those three you get a margin of over 234,000 votes and that is really what decided this election.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Such a triggered snowflake. What a sore LOSER!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1327978710809661440
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1327979630477922304

LOL the Democratic Party is not competent enough to rig an entire election.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Based on the combined vote margins in the deciding states (WI+GA+AZ), this was a closer election than 2016 (PA+WI+MI)!

This framing is not exactly accurate. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were the deciding states here because Biden crossed 270 with them before Arizona and Georgia were called. When you add up those three you get a margin of over 234,000 votes and that is really what decided this election.

That just isn't correct. If Biden had lost 20,000 votes in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan would have just pushed Biden over 270 before Arizona flipped to Trump and Georgia stayed Trump, pushing him back above 270. It doesn't matter what order the states are called in lol--all that matters is the eventual electoral college outcome. And a world where WI, AZ, and GA go Trump is a world where Trump wins. Thus, WI+AZ+GA is the Biden margin of victory.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1328041173856956418

[emailking]

I agree, the order the states are called in doesn't matter.

[wbrocks67]

Biden closing in on 50% in PA with a few new votes from Philly.

Joe Biden 3,419,445 (49.91%)
Donald Trump 3,352,748 (48.94%)
Jo Jorgensen 78,704 (1.15%)

Biden lead: +66,697

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1328041173856956418

Yes. In the same way that Dems needed to understand why Trump won and why he had the support he did among WWC, Trump supporters need to come to terms with why he is so hated and why there were thousands of people dancing in the streets when he lost.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1328041173856956418

Yes. In the same way that Dems needed to understand why Trump won and why he had the support he did among WWC, Trump supporters need to come to terms with why he is so hated and why there were thousands of people dancing in the streets when he lost.

I think it's so funny that there are still pundits out there saying that Biden needs to appeal and understand the 73 million that voted for Trump (which Biden will bc hes a good person and he wants to be a prez for everyone), but yet none of these people were telling Trump in 2016 that he needed to understand the 66 million Hillary voters out there.

[DrScholl]

Based on the combined vote margins in the deciding states (WI+GA+AZ), this was a closer election than 2016 (PA+WI+MI)!

This framing is not exactly accurate. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were the deciding states here because Biden crossed 270 with them before Arizona and Georgia were called. When you add up those three you get a margin of over 234,000 votes and that is really what decided this election.

That just isn't correct. If Biden had lost 20,000 votes in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan would have just pushed Biden over 270 before Arizona flipped to Trump and Georgia stayed Trump, pushing him back above 270. It doesn't matter what order the states are called in lol--all that matters is the eventual electoral college outcome. And a world where WI, AZ, and GA go Trump is a world where Trump wins. Thus, WI+AZ+GA is the Biden margin of victory.

You're moving the goal posts. All Biden needed was Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and he flipped them.. Regardless of how you play with the math, Biden clearly won this election by more than Trump did in 2016.

[emailking]

You're moving the goal posts. All Biden needed was Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and he flipped them.

All Trump needed was GA, WI, and AZ and he didn't get them. He got closer to getting them than MI, PA, and WI.

[emailking]

It depends what you mean. He outperformed Trump 2016 by 6%-7% in the popular vote margin, but that's style points. He came closer to losing the election that Trump did in 2016.

[Pollster]

Comparing the pre-election polls to the exit polls as well as the results, 2 things stand out in terms of what the pre-election polls, both at the state level and national level appear to have got wrong.

1. Consistently in state and national polls, the swing towards Trump among Hispanics was picked up as was his marginal gains with blacks and losses among college whites vs 2016, what the polls failed to capture was that there would be no large swing of non-college whites towards Biden, the only explanation is the polls were reaching a disproportionately anti Trump group of non-college whites.

2. The polls accurately captured how democrats would vote as well as how independents would swing to voting for Biden this year compared for Trump in 2016 what the polls missed was how many Republican defections there would be, the NYT/Siena poll in NV for example only had Trump winning Republicans by an 82% margin. For whatever reason the polls were reaching a particularly anti-Trump group of republicans.


Basically it seems the pre-election polls got two things wrong, they were sampling a disproportionately democratic leaning group of non college whites and they were sampling a disproportionately anti Trump group of Republicans, the two things can of course be related.

I guess it was something like the NYT calling random towns in PA and the non-college whites who picked up the phone were librarians who were democrats and that threw off their whole non-college white sample. Would not surprise me if pollsters oversampled the types of non-college whites who vote more democrat like librarians, teachers etc and under sampled those who vote Republican. 

Stricter likely voter screens have a lot to do with this as well. Great analysis.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Based on the combined vote margins in the deciding states (WI+GA+AZ), this was a closer election than 2016 (PA+WI+MI)!

This framing is not exactly accurate. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were the deciding states here because Biden crossed 270 with them before Arizona and Georgia were called. When you add up those three you get a margin of over 234,000 votes and that is really what decided this election.

That just isn't correct. If Biden had lost 20,000 votes in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan would have just pushed Biden over 270 before Arizona flipped to Trump and Georgia stayed Trump, pushing him back above 270. It doesn't matter what order the states are called in lol--all that matters is the eventual electoral college outcome. And a world where WI, AZ, and GA go Trump is a world where Trump wins. Thus, WI+AZ+GA is the Biden margin of victory.

You're moving the goal posts. All Biden needed was Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and he flipped them.. Regardless of how you play with the math, Biden clearly won this election by more than Trump did in 2016.

I'm very obviously not. All Biden needed was 270. That could come in the form of MI+PA+AZ, WI+AZ+PA, GA+AZ+MI, whatever. Biden won MI+PA+WI by over a quarter million votes but considering that was never his only--or even his easiest--path to 270, you have to calculate margin of  victory by the lowest total number of votes that have to flip in the closest states for Trump to hit 270 instead. In this case, it requires flipping AZ, GA, and WI.

[emailking]

Yeah when you look at the map and the PV margin and compare to 2016 it certainly feels like Biden had a pretty solid victory here. But when you actually look at the math (and yes, the math is what matters here) and look at the margins, he won it by the skin of his teeth.

[CookieDamage]

Yeah when you look at the map and the PV margin and compare to 2016 it certainly feels like Biden had a pretty solid victory here. But when you actually look at the math (and yes, the math is what matters here) and look at the margins, he won it by the skin of his teeth.

ermm i disagree. it wasnt a blowout but he certainly won by more than trump did

[emailking]

ermm i disagree. it wasnt a blowout but he certainly won by more than trump did

Ok, how? It's not clear to me.

[CookieDamage]

ermm i disagree. it wasnt a blowout but he certainly won by more than trump did

Ok, how? It's not clear to me.

His margin of victory in PA and MI are larger than Trump's were in 2016. His margin in WI is almost identical to Trump 2016. Plus, he flipped two red states. Like... his win is bigger than Trump's

[emailking]

ermm i disagree. it wasnt a blowout but he certainly won by more than trump did

Ok, how? It's not clear to me.

His margin of victory in PA and MI are larger than Trump's were in 2016. His margin in WI is almost identical to Trump 2016. Plus, he flipped two red states. Like... his win is bigger than Trump's

All that's true but he also came closer to losing than Trump did in 2016. PA and MI were Trump flips remember. There's nothing special about PA/MI/WI other than if Biden got them back and also held all the Hillary states he wins. He almost didn't though because he barely won Wisconsin.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

So is the New York Times going to fix the obvious reporting error in Douglas County, Colorado or no?

[Rep Jessica]

ermm i disagree. it wasnt a blowout but he certainly won by more than trump did

Ok, how? It's not clear to me.

His margin of victory in PA and MI are larger than Trump's were in 2016. His margin in WI is almost identical to Trump 2016. Plus, he flipped two red states. Like... his win is bigger than Trump's

All that's true but he also came closer to losing than Trump did in 2016. PA and MI were Trump flips remember. There's nothing special about PA/MI/WI other than if Biden got them back and also held all the Hillary states he wins. He almost didn't though because he barely won Wisconsin.

Arizonia and Ga are Biden Verizon of Wis, Mi and Pa.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Based on the combined vote margins in the deciding states (WI+GA+AZ), this was a closer election than 2016 (PA+WI+MI)!

This framing is not exactly accurate. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were the deciding states here because Biden crossed 270 with them before Arizona and Georgia were called. When you add up those three you get a margin of over 234,000 votes and that is really what decided this election.

That just isn't correct. If Biden had lost 20,000 votes in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan would have just pushed Biden over 270 before Arizona flipped to Trump and Georgia stayed Trump, pushing him back above 270. It doesn't matter what order the states are called in lol--all that matters is the eventual electoral college outcome. And a world where WI, AZ, and GA go Trump is a world where Trump wins. Thus, WI+AZ+GA is the Biden margin of victory.

You're moving the goal posts. All Biden needed was Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and he flipped them.. Regardless of how you play with the math, Biden clearly won this election by more than Trump did in 2016.

I'm very obviously not. All Biden needed was 270. That could come in the form of MI+PA+AZ, WI+AZ+PA, GA+AZ+MI, whatever. Biden won MI+PA+WI by over a quarter million votes but considering that was never his only--or even his easiest--path to 270, you have to calculate margin of  victory by the lowest total number of votes that have to flip in the closest states for Trump to hit 270 instead. In this case, it requires flipping AZ, GA, and WI.

However, AZ+GA+WI doesn't quite do that; it only gets Trump to 269 and the election goes to the House (assuming no faithless electors), where yes, Trump probably wins.  But it's not a sure thing -- and if you're looking at how many votes are necessary to gain an EC majority for Trump then you also need to add NE-02, where Biden leads by about 21K.

[emailking]

We might be debating different things. You can perhaps make an argument that Biden's win is more impressive or maybe even "bigger" than Trump's win in 2016, but he still came closer to losing. Shift 40K votes in 3 states, (or just a uniform popular vote shift of 0.01%), and he loses despite the large PV margin and taking PA & MI back by a significant amount.