2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Ferguson97]

Trump will still win imo

Delusion

[Alben Barkley]

Trump will still win imo

https://www.healio.com/pediatrics/journals/pedann/1973-7-2-7/%7B6c3477cf-1cbe-4947-b654-b63babbb1c3e%7D/treatment-of-mental-retardation

[FrancoAgo]

Pennsylvania margin go up to 45,670

[Alben Barkley]

Pennsylvania margin go up to 45,670

It will be over 100k in the end. Since America no longer has a president, the desperate delusional moron in chief will try to challenge it anyway and get his ass laughed out of court.

I'm here for it!

[n1240]

Yeah, the money that Trump supporters are pouring into PredictIt is just insane. I saw this morning that they've bid Trump up to nearly 20 cents in Georgia.

Is Predictit a legit site and can I make money on it from the UK?

Yeah I've been using it for four years and never have had problem getting my money on withdrawals, but it's only accessible to US citizens. Betfair exchange is the closest equivalent for non-US citizens although the odds aren't quite as insane compared to PredictIt right now.

[Alben Barkley]

You know what the best part about getting (relatively) rich AND getting to watch a fake "rich" asshole like Donald Trump suffer at the same time is?

ALL OF IT!!!!!!!!!

Again, best day of my life.

Best time of my life.

Will be the best holiday of my life.

Overall just finally feeling schadenfreude that has been pent up for four years.

Happy days are here again!!!

[Panda Express]

Looking at the Colorado swings, just brutal numbers for Trump in the populous counties. Big swings from Hillary to Biden in the Denver suburbs as expected but there was also serious erosion in the GOP strongholds of Douglas County (wealthy exurban) and El Paso (CO Springs). Interestingly, Biden narrowly flipped Pueblo back but Trump managed to flip Alamosa (small rural hispanic county)

Denver +55 Clinton => Biden +64 (9 point swing)
Boulder +48 Clinton => Biden +57 (9 point swing)
Larimer +5 Clinton => Biden +15 (10 point swing)
Jefferson +7 Clinton => Biden +19 (12 point swing)
Adams +9 Clinton => Biden +17 (8 point swing)
Arapahoe +14 Clinton => Biden +25 (11 point swing)
Douglas +18 Trump => Trump +7 (11 point swing)
El Paso +22 Trump => Trump +11 (11 point swing)

Statewide +5 Clinton => +13 Biden (8 point swing)

[Alben Barkley]

Our new FDR deserves to hear the song!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It seems like the popular vote has barely budged on the NYT map.  Are we expecting Biden +3 to hold?  If so, I'm a little surprised that the electoral college wasn't even more of a nailbiter (even though the tipping point state will likely be decided by <1%).

[Panda Express]

It seems like the popular vote has barely budged on the NYT map.  Are we expecting Biden +3 to hold?  If so, I'm a little surprised that the electoral college wasn't even more of a nailbiter (even though the tipping point state will likely be decided by <1%).

There's still a lot out in many blue states. Around +4.5 is what it will be

[Alben Barkley]

It seems like the popular vote has barely budged on the NYT map.  Are we expecting Biden +3 to hold?  If so, I'm a little surprised that the electoral college wasn't even more of a nailbiter (even though the tipping point state will likely be decided by <1%).

MANY NY and CA votes alone left to be counted. Will AT LEAST be +4 in the end. But yeah, honestly, the fact that it's not greater and our man still got over 300 is impressive actually. Just goes to show how disliked your Fuhrer was across the map!

I must admit the fact that Joe had a massively higher favorability rating than Hillary according to polls but will still only outperform her by a couple points is somewhat surprising to me, however.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It seems like the popular vote has barely budged on the NYT map.  Are we expecting Biden +3 to hold?  If so, I'm a little surprised that the electoral college wasn't even more of a nailbiter (even though the tipping point state will likely be decided by <1%).

I must admit the fact that Joe had a massively higher favorability rating than Hillary according to polls but will still only outperform her by a couple points is somewhat surprising to me, however.

Might be that the high turnout on the part of Trump-backers cancelled this out.  Favorability prompted many more Democrats/NeverTrumpers to get out and vote, plus it likely flipped a bunch of third-party voters from 2016.  But Trump also saw a surge of support from his locked-in voting bloc (as well as infrequent/non-voters, apparently).  

Once the dust settles, it will be interesting to see the actual trends (not just those based solely on E-day exit polls).  

[Alben Barkley]

I will only say it once but I WILL say it:

God... bless......... Philadelphia:

[Badger]

Friendly reminder that the electoral college is still the dumbest system around for electing a President.

You speak facts. Weird how so many Americans care more about corn than people.

California shouldn't dictate to the other 49 states who gets to be president.

But California HAS dictated who is president. If California had voted for Trump then he would be President.

It is the only state in the nation that has decided the result, flip any other state and Biden still wins, but California alone would change the outcome.

So?

[Alben Barkley]

Overheard in White House situation room after the election:

“He got me,” Trump said of Biden's dunk over him. "That f***ing Biden boomed me."

Trump added, “He’s so good,” repeating it four times.

Trump then said he wanted to add Biden to the list of presidents he golfs with this summer.

[Alben Barkley]

Friendly reminder that the electoral college is still the dumbest system around for electing a President.

You speak facts. Weird how so many Americans care more about corn than people.

California shouldn't dictate to the other 49 states who gets to be president.

But California HAS dictated who is president. If California had voted for Trump then he would be President.

It is the only state in the nation that has decided the result, flip any other state and Biden still wins, but California alone would change the outcome.

California will end up like, what, 67% Biden?

LOL if anything it (as by far the most populous state in the nation) should have even MORE say in who becomes president!

The hell you crying about?!

[Badger]

Overheard in White House situation room after the election:

“He got me,” Trump said of Biden's dunk over him. "That f***ing Biden boomed me."

Trump added, “He’s so good,” repeating it four times.

Trump then said he wanted to add Biden to the list of presidents he golfs with this summer.

Literal. Cuck.

[Kalimantan]

Friendly reminder that the electoral college is still the dumbest system around for electing a President.

You speak facts. Weird how so many Americans care more about corn than people.

California shouldn't dictate to the other 49 states who gets to be president.

But California HAS dictated who is president. If California had voted for Trump then he would be President.

It is the only state in the nation that has decided the result, flip any other state and Biden still wins, but California alone would change the outcome.

So?

So don't make the argument that the electoral college should stay because otherwise California would decide the election. Find a different argument instead.

[Alben Barkley]

Overheard in White House situation room after the election:

“He got me,” Trump said of Biden's dunk over him. "That f***ing Biden boomed me."

Trump added, “He’s so good,” repeating it four times.

Trump then said he wanted to add Biden to the list of presidents he golfs with this summer.

Literal. Cuck.

LOL I wish it was real but it's just a joke copypasta.

[MATTROSE94]

https://twitter.com/khamenei_ir/status/1325138042047377408

The Aytolli speaks!

[wbrocks67]

Looks like a few new votes in GA, Biden up to +10.5K now. (i think it was like +10.2 before)

[wbrocks67]

Pennsylvania margin go up to 45,670

Yep:

Joe Biden 3,362,018 (49.8%)
Donald Trump 3,316,291 (49.1%)

~2,900/3K new votes out of Philly - Biden got 2.7k, Trump only ~200K

[Sir Mohamed]

Good morning/afternoon/evening.

What is going with AZ?

Can Trump still win it?

Doubtful. There was another vote dump in past 24 hours, and Biden still up by about 0.5%. It will be razor thin, but I gues Biden keeps it. 306 EV Irony Map incoming.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The website has updated overnight with a few additional votes from Apache County. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST Tuesday: 6203
Provisional ballots: 40602
Ballots ready for tabulation: 30193

Total: 76998

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 65776 ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 12151 of them.  He currently trails by 16985, so would finish behind by 4834.

It's over and the networks could call it.

[Mike88]

The four seasons thing was already a joke, but now this is just... lol:

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1325813524069806083