2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

We are up past 149.3 million votes on the cook popular vote tracker and Biden has not even reached 3% in the popular vote, Nate Silver tweeted out recently maybe he could win by 5 or even 6 points with late ballots, I doubt it, in California Biden's margin has gone from +33 to +31.3 as more votes have come in, New York should give a big boost to Biden but since election day Biden has only been winning votes by 16.5%, if we assume turnout of 160 million, a 16.5% advantage among the remaining vote would get Biden to a 3.9% margin in the popular vote.

New York has barely counted any votes since Election Day, so nothing really go get out of that. Also, I assume CA will go the way of CO: huge Biden lead in first batch of votes, then it narrows and some more mails in come in, but then the last chunk of mail ins extends Bidens lead again.

It would be quite surprising if CA only ends up 30/31, same as HRC.

[wbrocks67]

California keeps tightening with each update.  Biden is likely to end up with a lower CA margin of victory than Hillary when all is said and done.  WA/OR and NJ/MD are also tightening with late ballots.  I wouldn't expect the NPV margin to balloon like it did in 2016.  The NY absentees could be near unanimous Biden, but that could be last big PV swing he will get.

We really don't know though. Colorado is a good example I think - it started with a big lead, tightened as more mail ins got counted, but then got to a point and then Biden's lead started growing again. So we have no idea what is out in all of these places. It could keep tightening, it could tighten and then revert. We just don't know. I thought Colorado was gonna keep tightening and tightening, but now Biden is back up to +13.2.

[wbrocks67]

Biden lead at +34K in Nevada now.

Yep, Biden's +2.6 is now ahead of Hillary's +2.4, and he will likely end up +3/4

[Alben Barkley]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-campaign-doug-collins-georgia-recount

“During the coming recount, we are confident we will find evidence of improperly harvested ballots and other irregularities that will prove that President Trump won Georgia fairly again on his way to re-election as President. Georgians deserve a free and open process, and they will get one.”

Alarming that the person overseeing the recount has a predetermined outcome in mind. Looks like Trump is setting up to undermine the vote in Georgia

I am not even kidding when I say I think it would be in your own best interest to go into a voluntary coma or something until January 21. Clearly the stress of... winning bigly???... is far too much for you and other doomers to handle.

Sad!

Hell, at least Horus has had the decency to hide his face around here ever since his prediction of Kanye making a dent in Minnesota fell laughably flat.

I'm still very much around thank you. And we won. I'm happy. No reason to doom now lol

Wait you're Horus?

LOL

Hammy, looks like you're the last green GA avatar holdout doomer left!

When Horus has gone full bloomer, you KNOW it's time to go!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

NYT:

In rural Nebraska, a Biden win drew a big, red-state shrug. Many Republicans said they planned to show liberals that it was possible to simply move on when you lose.

Pretty pathetic when broad swaths of the citizenry are acting more mature than the President himself.  

[DaleCooper]

NYT:

In rural Nebraska, a Biden win drew a big, red-state shrug. Many Republicans said they planned to show liberals that it was possible to simply move on when you lose.

Pretty pathetic when broad swaths of the citizenry are acting more mature than the President himself.  

I've lived in all three of the state's congressional districts at one point or another, and I'm glad to see that my fellow Nebraskans in NE-03 are taking it relatively well. For as red as we are, we don't tend to elect many crazies, thankfully.

[Alben Barkley]

This literally might be the best day of my life.

I'm not even kidding.

[Kalimantan]

Friendly reminder that the electoral college is still the dumbest system around for electing a President.

You speak facts. Weird how so many Americans care more about corn than people.

California shouldn't dictate to the other 49 states who gets to be president.

But California HAS dictated who is president. If California had voted for Trump then he would be President.

It is the only state in the nation that has decided the result, flip any other state and Biden still wins, but California alone would change the outcome.

[DaleCooper]

This literally might be the best day of my life.

I'm not even kidding.

Why today specifically?

[Alben Barkley]

The money I'm about to make is just f--king insane.

We have a combination of Biden and news of a highly effective COVID vaccine causing stocks to go through the roof.

I have already outright robbed MAGAts of thousands of dollars over these past couple years with PredictIt alone, and I've just taken a few thousand more.

I'm going to be a very wealthy man soon, and I owe it all to my president, Joseph R. Biden, Jr.

He's your president too, MAGAts! Sorry you managed to somehow lose money over this LMFAO. Cucks.

[BlueSwan]

The money I'm about to make is just f--king insane.

We have a combination of Biden and news of a highly effective COVID vaccine causing stocks to go through the roof.

I have already outright robbed MAGAts of thousands of dollars over these past couple years with PredictIt alone, and I've just taken a few thousand more.

I'm going to be a very wealthy man soon, and I owe it all to my president, Joseph R. Biden, Jr.

He's your president too, MAGAts! Sorry you managed to somehow lose money over this LMFAO. Cucks.

Congrats mate. Taking money from MAGA clowns is doing Gods work. :-D

[Alben Barkley]

[Podgy the Bear]

The money I'm about to make is just f--king insane.

We have a combination of Biden and news of a highly effective COVID vaccine causing stocks to go through the roof.

I have already outright robbed MAGAts of thousands of dollars over these past couple years with PredictIt alone, and I've just taken a few thousand more.

Yes, thank you to whoever came up with PredictIt!  I've done well.  Surprisingly easy to capitalize on the stupidity and delusionary mindset of the Trump crowd.

[Alben Barkley]

I must say... There is really nothing in the world more satisfying than having Jethro and Bubba somehow thinking they had the upper hand on you after 2016, only for you to outright erase every single cent they have made over the past four years in one single stroke.

It's this meme incarnate:

Education pays, kiddos. HAVING A BRAIN pays!

[Alben Barkley]

For everyone else celebrating. Well, there is a song perfect for this occasion:

[Crumpets]

NYT:

In rural Nebraska, a Biden win drew a big, red-state shrug. Many Republicans said they planned to show liberals that it was possible to simply move on when you lose.

Pretty pathetic when broad swaths of the citizenry are acting more mature than the President himself.  

I read this quote and while I think it's relieving and gives me some faith in people who are politically the complete opposite of me, I have to say I'm genuinely confused about the mindset of the people it's describing, and maybe any Trump supporters here can help explain this to me. It's clear that Trump does not view this as a "normal" election, but a fundamental threat to the American political system - just like a lot of Democrats do. If you agree with Trump, it seems like your reaction should be a lot stronger than to shrug it off. It feels almost like seeing the headline "Iraqi Baathists on American invasion: 'Meh'"

Alternatively, if you know Trump is spouting BS and making the chance of a constitutional crisis way higher than it needs to be solely for his own sake and not because there's any legitimate threat to American democracy, why put up with and support him in the first place? Is it really just to "trigger the libs" or "6-3 Supreme Court"? Because that's what it feels like, and that seems like a pretty huge price to pay in GOP legitimacy for some pretty short-term gain and no major policy changes.

[DaleCooper]

Yeah, the money that Trump supporters are pouring into PredictIt is just insane. I saw this morning that they've bid Trump up to nearly 20 cents in Georgia.

[Alben Barkley]

This is basically how I feel now that it's all over:

[BobbieMac]

Yeah, the money that Trump supporters are pouring into PredictIt is just insane. I saw this morning that they've bid Trump up to nearly 20 cents in Georgia.

Is Predictit a legit site and can I make money on it from the UK?

[Crumpets]

Is it true that the election is going to the SC?

Probably not. Legal cases can't just be brought to the Supreme Court, as Trump seems to think. They all have to start with a normal lawsuit which, though a series of appeals, eventually reaches the Supreme Court. Alternately, there can be multiple cases in different circuit courts with different results which then need to be settled by the Supreme Court. Sometimes these processes can be sped up in case of major decisions that need to be made quickly, which is what happened in 2000 in Bush v. Gore.

However, the Trump campaign has yet to make it through even the first step of bringing this to a lower-level court, going (by the last count I saw) 0 for 10 and getting every attempted lawsuit dismissed by the first judge that sees it. If they can find some case that can make it past a judge, let alone the series of judges that would need to agree the case has merit to take it all the way to the Supreme Court, it's still legally and logistically possible, but their chances are dwindling fast.

[Alben Barkley]

OK, one more time:

Oompa loompa doompety doo

I've got a perfect puzzle for you

Oompa loompa doompety dee

If you are wise you'll listen to me

What do you get when you make everyone mad?

Be as big of a dick as an elephant has?

What are you at, getting terribly fat?

What do you think will come of that?

I don't like the look of it

Oompa loompa doompety da

If you're not greedy, you will go far

You will live in happiness too

Like the Oompa Loompa Doompety do

Doompety do

[wbrocks67]

It appears that the Philly and Allegheny updates have been pretty small, and both had at least 35-45K ballots left on Saturday, so I would think there's probably at least 20-25K ballots left out of both of those, which is at least 50K.

The official PA site says there is 30-40K non Philly/Allegheny, so it might be closer to like ~75-80k outstanding in PA right now - mail in, provisionals, overseas, military, etc

[FrancoAgo]

Good Morning, or Good Afternoon

There is a schedule for today results?

[Alben Barkley]

Good Morning, or Good Afternoon

There is a schedule for today results?

The schedule is quite simple actually:

1. Joe Biden wins 306 electoral votes.

2. Donald Trump LOSES.

3. America wins.

[Alben Barkley]

JAMES WOODS PULLED HIS ENTIRE NET WORTH OUT OF THE MARKET BECAUSE HE WAS DOOMING A BIDEN WIN AND NOW HAS DELETED THE TWEET LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I might LITERALLY be richer than an F-list Trumptard "celebrity" soon HAHAHAHAHAHA

Well, I said it might be the happiest day of my life!