2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Bootes Void]

Trump has 4.8 million votes in California easily beating 2016 and 2012, he will easily John McCain's 5 million vote total of 2008, I wonder if he passes Bush's 2004 total 5.5million(unlikely)

[gf20202]

anyone know when arizona dumps some more?

https://twitter.com/MaricopaVote/status/1325574036978458624

Pima, which has a decent cache of provisionals that should go heavily for Biden, and Maricopa are the only two counties left with 10k plus votes.

Pima took the weekend off but resumes going through its provisionals Monday. We should see some type of update then. Just a guess but maybe between 6 and 8 pm EST.

Maricopa has released results at either 11 am/ 6 pm / 9 pm EST so probably 6 or 9 EST.

how much vote is even left such as pa, ga and ariz?

as well as nevada

Haven't been able to track down a reported actual ballots remaining in Pennsylvania. NYT estimates 67,830 but most people think that is low.

It's unclear how many votes are left uncounted in GA but it is not many and the goal by SOS is to be done with the initial count by EOD Monday. Gwinett has 965 provisionals they are apparently tallying Monday. That's probably that largest left in any county in the state.

AZ has 70k votes left between regular ballots and provisionals, and another 6k ballots that need to be cured by Tuesday and are seemingly unlikely to be done so.

Nevada has approx 84k remaining vote, 67k of which are in Clark county, believe most of those are provisionals.

[Alben Barkley]

We are up past 149.3 million votes on the cook popular vote tracker and Biden has not even reached 3% in the popular vote, Nate Silver tweeted out recently maybe he could win by 5 or even 6 points with late ballots, I doubt it, in California Biden's margin has gone from +33 to +31.3 as more votes have come in, New York should give a big boost to Biden but since election day Biden has only been winning votes by 16.5%, if we assume turnout of 160 million, a 16.5% advantage among the remaining vote would get Biden to a 3.9% margin in the popular vote.

No offense, but I'm trusting Nate Silver's math over yours.

[n1240]

We are up past 149.3 million votes on the cook popular vote tracker and Biden has not even reached 3% in the popular vote, Nate Silver tweeted out recently maybe he could win by 5 or even 6 points with late ballots, I doubt it, in California Biden's margin has gone from +33 to +31.3 as more votes have come in, New York should give a big boost to Biden but since election day Biden has only been winning votes by 16.5%, if we assume turnout of 160 million, a 16.5% advantage among the remaining vote would get Biden to a 3.9% margin in the popular vote.

Biden can net about 250k from Maryland, 1 mil from NY (only mail-in vote remaining, massive Dem advantage) and Cali respectively which should get around to 4.5%

[Bootes Void]

We are up past 149.3 million votes on the cook popular vote tracker and Biden has not even reached 3% in the popular vote, Nate Silver tweeted out recently maybe he could win by 5 or even 6 points with late ballots, I doubt it, in California Biden's margin has gone from +33 to +31.3 as more votes have come in, New York should give a big boost to Biden but since election day Biden has only been winning votes by 16.5%, if we assume turnout of 160 million, a 16.5% advantage among the remaining vote would get Biden to a 3.9% margin in the popular vote.

Biden can net about 250k from Maryland, 1 mil from NY (only mail-in vote remaining, massive Dem advantage) and Cali respectively which should get around to 4.5%

California seems to more friendly to republicans as the votes come in however the net votes may be greater for Biden

[Alben Barkley]

Anyway, I just still can't believe I might have to thank above all Philadelphians, i.e. Eagles fans, for saving the world.

Between that and Texas utterly failing to come through... Well, I might not quite give up my Cowboys fandom for the Eagles (bleh, don't think I could ever bring myself to do it). But the Falcons? Those poor guys deserve a break if anyone does. And as I previously mentioned, I MIGHT be moving to the Atlanta area sometime in the near future, which could convert me once and for all.

[n1240]

We are up past 149.3 million votes on the cook popular vote tracker and Biden has not even reached 3% in the popular vote, Nate Silver tweeted out recently maybe he could win by 5 or even 6 points with late ballots, I doubt it, in California Biden's margin has gone from +33 to +31.3 as more votes have come in, New York should give a big boost to Biden but since election day Biden has only been winning votes by 16.5%, if we assume turnout of 160 million, a 16.5% advantage among the remaining vote would get Biden to a 3.9% margin in the popular vote.

Biden can net about 250k from Maryland, 1 mil from NY (only mail-in vote remaining, massive Dem advantage) and Cali respectively which should get around to 4.5%

California seems to more friendly to republicans as the votes come in however the net votes may be greater for Biden

1 million is a bit of a blanket estimate, depends on how much Trump overperforms on late ballots relative to current count. Some counties seem to have large variation in new votes, but in almost county that has reported new ballots Trump seems to do better - some extreme cases being San Luis Obispo where Biden was up 22% before and Trump won the latest batch by 12%, or El Dorado which went Trump+6 to Trump+34 on new count.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

We are up past 149.3 million votes on the cook popular vote tracker and Biden has not even reached 3% in the popular vote, Nate Silver tweeted out recently maybe he could win by 5 or even 6 points with late ballots, I doubt it, in California Biden's margin has gone from +33 to +31.3 as more votes have come in, New York should give a big boost to Biden but since election day Biden has only been winning votes by 16.5%, if we assume turnout of 160 million, a 16.5% advantage among the remaining vote would get Biden to a 3.9% margin in the popular vote.

No offense, but I'm trusting Nate Silver's math over yours.

You should never trust someone whose handle is one of Sauron's aliases.

[Alben Barkley]

You know what?

I'm starting to think Trump supporters aren't so bad after all. These people have kindly given me now thousands of dollars worth of free money. First it was 2018, when the idiots actually believed Manchin and Menendez would lose and that the Dems would lose the House. That was easy money.

Now they think somehow Trump still has a path in Arizona, Georgia, etc. even though we literally know for a mathematical fact that's impossible. Their sheer stupidity is making me rich. I owe them praise for that if nothing else! I have maxed my bets in all these markets, and guess what? I have a 100% success rate so far in PredictIt! Every single market I have ever invested in, I got the full payout for because I only bet when I KNOW I'm gonna win AND when I know there are a bunch of idiots who somehow think otherwise.

Also there's the fact that I actually INCREASED my investments in the stock market when it slightly dipped a week or two ago, around the same time MAGAts were predicting doom and gloom over how the market would react to Biden winning (and James Woods claimed to pull his entire net worth out). The market roared early on Friday when it seemed like Biden was the winner, then basically flatlined. I expect it to REALLY roar now.

I am actually going to make bank off dumbass Trumpf--ks. They are literally handing all their opiate money to me, a liberal.

And I thought we were supposed to be the "cucks???"

Well, this is how I (a CHAD) feel now...

[Tender Branson]

Did anything important happen during the night ?

[Alben Barkley]

Did anything important happen during the night ?

Arizona is confirmed D, for one thing.

RIP your bets I guess, except maybe that one you said you had with OH+FL going R but the election going D.

[AnOdyssey]

Is it true that the election is going to the SC?

[Tender Branson]

Did anything important happen during the night ?

Arizona is confirmed D, for one thing.

RIP your bets I guess, except maybe that one you said you had with OH+FL going R but the election going D.

It looks like it, yeah.

It was still a good night overall with Biden winning and with a significant money gain - even if it's not the 1.200$ in total.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

anyone know when arizona dumps some more?

https://twitter.com/MaricopaVote/status/1325574036978458624

Pima, which has a decent cache of provisionals that should go heavily for Biden, and Maricopa are the only two counties left with 10k plus votes.

Pima took the weekend off but resumes going through its provisionals Monday. We should see some type of update then. Just a guess but maybe between 6 and 8 pm EST.

Maricopa has released results at either 11 am/ 6 pm / 9 pm EST so probably 6 or 9 EST.

how much vote is even left such as pa, ga and ariz?

as well as nevada

Haven't been able to track down a reported actual ballots remaining in Pennsylvania. NYT estimates 67,830 but most people think that is low.

It's unclear how many votes are left uncounted in GA but it is not many and the goal by SOS is to be done with the initial count by EOD Monday. Gwinett has 965 provisionals they are apparently tallying Monday. That's probably that largest left in any county in the state.

AZ has 70k votes left between regular ballots and provisionals, and another 6k ballots that need to be cured by Tuesday and are seemingly unlikely to be done so.

Nevada has approx 84k remaining vote, 67k of which are in Clark county, believe most of those are provisionals.

Thank you so much

[Tender Branson]

It's pretty sad that a state like PA or GA, who had their deadlines of receiving any ballots on Friday, still don't know how many ballots are left to count ...

[Dr. Arch]

Is it true that the election is going to the SC?

No

[GoTfan]

Dear Nevada,

SORT YOUR S**T OUT.

Sincerely, The World.

[Hammy]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-campaign-doug-collins-georgia-recount

“During the coming recount, we are confident we will find evidence of improperly harvested ballots and other irregularities that will prove that President Trump won Georgia fairly again on his way to re-election as President. Georgians deserve a free and open process, and they will get one.”

Alarming that the person overseeing the recount has a predetermined outcome in mind. Looks like Trump is setting up to undermine the vote in Georgia

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-campaign-doug-collins-georgia-recount

“During the coming recount, we are confident we will find evidence of improperly harvested ballots and other irregularities that will prove that President Trump won Georgia fairly again on his way to re-election as President. Georgians deserve a free and open process, and they will get one.”

Alarming that the person overseeing the recount has a predetermined outcome in mind. Looks like Trump is setting up to undermine the vote in Georgia

Erm... no? He does not have the predetermined outcome in mind? He’s just saying that so he can get a recount which won’t change anything.

[Hammy]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-campaign-doug-collins-georgia-recount

“During the coming recount, we are confident we will find evidence of improperly harvested ballots and other irregularities that will prove that President Trump won Georgia fairly again on his way to re-election as President. Georgians deserve a free and open process, and they will get one.”

Alarming that the person overseeing the recount has a predetermined outcome in mind. Looks like Trump is setting up to undermine the vote in Georgia

Erm... no? He does not have the predetermined outcome in mind? He’s just saying that so he can get a recount which won’t change anything.

Collins is leading the recount team. All these people need to be thrown in jail when this is over.

[VAR]

CD numbers:

AZ-06 - Trump +4
IA-02 - Trump +4

[Alben Barkley]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-campaign-doug-collins-georgia-recount

“During the coming recount, we are confident we will find evidence of improperly harvested ballots and other irregularities that will prove that President Trump won Georgia fairly again on his way to re-election as President. Georgians deserve a free and open process, and they will get one.”

Alarming that the person overseeing the recount has a predetermined outcome in mind. Looks like Trump is setting up to undermine the vote in Georgia

I am not even kidding when I say I think it would be in your own best interest to go into a voluntary coma or something until January 21. Clearly the stress of... winning bigly???... is far too much for you and other doomers to handle.

Sad!

Hell, at least Horus has had the decency to hide his face around here ever since his prediction of Kanye making a dent in Minnesota fell laughably flat.

[n1240]

CD numbers:

AZ-06 - Trump +4
IA-02 - Trump +4

Last I checked couple OC districts (they added some votes so may have changed. last checked Sunday morning)
CA-45: Biden+2
CA-48: Biden+11

GA-06: Biden+10 (estimate, adjusted for some Cobb County precinct splits)
GA-07: Biden+6 (estimate, adjusted for some Forsyth County precinct splits)
SC-01: Trump+5.5
PA-17: Biden+2

Can do others upon request, although it depends on access + usability of county/state precinct data (counties/states that use Clarity are easiest).

[DaleCooper]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the GA recount being handled by the Secretary of State's office under bipartisan supervision of representatives from Trump and Biden's campaigns? Doug Collins is leading Trump's team, not the recount effort as a whole.

[Horus]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-campaign-doug-collins-georgia-recount

“During the coming recount, we are confident we will find evidence of improperly harvested ballots and other irregularities that will prove that President Trump won Georgia fairly again on his way to re-election as President. Georgians deserve a free and open process, and they will get one.”

Alarming that the person overseeing the recount has a predetermined outcome in mind. Looks like Trump is setting up to undermine the vote in Georgia

I am not even kidding when I say I think it would be in your own best interest to go into a voluntary coma or something until January 21. Clearly the stress of... winning bigly???... is far too much for you and other doomers to handle.

Sad!

Hell, at least Horus has had the decency to hide his face around here ever since his prediction of Kanye making a dent in Minnesota fell laughably flat.

I'm still very much around thank you. And we won. I'm happy. No reason to doom now lol