2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Rep Jessica]

I'm back from a couple days away from this forum and US politics in general and how has the race not been called yet? wth is taking so long?

But yay Biden won (or is almost certainly gonna win)

I'll probably be called around Christmas! Santa will put it under the tree.

[Hammy]

Idiot

https://twitter.com/mediaite/status/1324953722401804288

sh**t like this is why I'm 99% convinced Trump will remain president after Jan 20 and why I think any celebration and gloating should hold off until after that. These subversive traitors are going to do whatever it takes to stay in power. And the networks are 100% complicit in giving them enough leverage by entertaining their conspiracy theories and treating this race as if Trump can still win the vote count.

[Tender Branson]

There are more than 14k provisional ballots left in GA.

Trump has won the 2.200 that were counted so far by a 59-40 margin.

[ObamaMichael]

There are more than 14k provisional ballots left in GA.

Trump has won the 2.200 that were counted so far by a 59-40 margin.

I'm really starting to feel like this race might not be called until december

[Dr. Arch]

There are more than 14k provisional ballots left in GA.

Trump has won the 2.200 that were counted so far by a 59-40 margin.

I'm really starting to feel like this race might not be called until december

What the heck are you two talking about?

[NOVA Green]

Oh dear, this thing STILL hasn't been called. Just woke up. Very disappointing.

So can anybody give me the rundown of what has happened over the last 8-9 hours or so?

- Biden up almost 29k in PA. Did Allegheny finally come in? Do we have any new info on what remains and why the hell they aren't calling it to end this nightmare?

- I assume that NV is still safe and the media is just not calling it because reasons?

- 4k+ ahead in GA. Do we even know what the remaining ballots are or how many military ballots have come in?

- It seems like not much has happened in AZ. I assume we still believe that Biden has got this?

Hi BlueSwan---

Good to see you back and me and my Wife would love be able to go to Copenhagen for a proper visit (I spent a couple days backpacking in the City back in the early '90s, and we both spent about (12) Hours in the Airport back in the late '00s, and a bit later on almost had a chance to get relocated for a job out out there).

I will let others fill out the details and attempt to provide a brief Summary (Atlas Hive Feel Free to Correct and provide additional information).

1.) Part of Allegheny came in, including a mixture  of "Overseas Ballots", including Military Ballots, as well as some Provisionals, but I believe there are still a significant number of remaining ballots not counted today.

2.) Overall PA ballots continue to heavily favor Democrats, regardless of the "Provisionals", let alone Mail Ballots from Heavily Trump Counties such as Washington County.

3.) Mail Ballots arriving after election day are "segregated" and not included in Total Vote Counts yet, despite in some case having already been tabulated.

4.) Most of the Outstanding Ballots remaining continue to reside in heavily Democratic Counties, and even in Erie County, we have not seen the "Provisional Ballots" favor Trump theory manifest.

5.) Nevada--- I believe most of us is suspecting that the News Organizations are not calling it out of an abundance of caution, especially since the AZ Fox & AP calls left some of them "Gun Shy" about "Early Calls" where Early VbM vs Late VbM patterns shifted a bit from previous voting patterns.

TBH--- We saw something similar in Oregon, where DEMs were overwhelmingly leading Turnout vs REG PUBs and then the latest numbers show only a +0.5% D Turnout Gap.

6.) NV--- Atlas still has some conspiracy theories regarding media trying to string out the race over the Weekend for ratings, and other theories about how the news media is intimidated by Trump, etc...

Personally, I would ignore most of those takes.

7.) Most of the votes in NV remaining are in Clark County, which as you are well aware is a heavily DEM stronghold, but the "what if" scenarios regarding which votes have been counted in various parts of the huge Metropolis, "maybe somehow Henderson County or various uninc 'Burbs are the outstanding places".... "what if" Latinos are swinging harder to Trump in the Barrios of the Las Vegas.

Quite frankly in my mind this is a bunch of bunk bathtub Acid from the early '90s, but well we shall see.

8.) I'll trust Ralston the NV numbers and that he has essentially seen enough, but granted COVID-19 disproportionately hit Vegas, just like the Great Recession of '08, so maybe some more extreme shifts here than in some other places with "Trump Checks", etc getting delivered to folks for their "Gig Economy" work, etc.... So a bit wild out there, and I suspect many members of the Media

9.) GA--- Think we are down to less ballots remaining than the size of Biden's lead. Only reason the State hasn't been called yet is that news orgs don't want to call a state when it's under recount zone.   

Recounts rarely change anything for Statewide Elections unless it's a major "Tabulation Error", so Biden numbers should hold in GA unless there happened to be some weird thing with a particular voting machine in a certain place, etc....

10.) AZ---- Bit of a Trip. Should be a Biden hold based upon the % of Trump / Biden Ballots added, not looking good for Trump in the largest Counties.

Still, theoretically there are enough outstanding voted out in AZ for a Trump flip, but he's gotta be doing better in the various vote batches.

[Panda Express]

What date does the Electoral College meet? Trump can try legal shenanigans until then but after that date there is constitutionally nothing he can do.

[Tender Branson]

There are more than 14k provisional ballots left in GA.

Trump has won the 2.200 that were counted so far by a 59-40 margin.

I'm really starting to feel like this race might not be called until december

From what I understand, those provisional ballots counted so far are from rural counties.

So the remaining ones should be pro Biden, but I don’t know really.

Also, nobody knows how many overseas/military ballots are left.

8.000 were requested, but most probably came back and were already counted.

[Dr. Arch]

There are more than 14k provisional ballots left in GA.

Trump has won the 2.200 that were counted so far by a 59-40 margin.

I'm really starting to feel like this race might not be called until december

From what I understand, those provisional ballots counted so far are from rural counties.

So the remaining ones should be pro Biden, but I don’t know really.

Also, nobody knows how many overseas/military ballots are left.

8.000 were requested, but most probably came back and were already counted.

Fewer than 100 came back. The deadline was today at 7:00 PM EST.

[BlueSwan]

Oh dear, this thing STILL hasn't been called. Just woke up. Very disappointing.

So can anybody give me the rundown of what has happened over the last 8-9 hours or so?

- Biden up almost 29k in PA. Did Allegheny finally come in? Do we have any new info on what remains and why the hell they aren't calling it to end this nightmare?

- I assume that NV is still safe and the media is just not calling it because reasons?

- 4k+ ahead in GA. Do we even know what the remaining ballots are or how many military ballots have come in?

- It seems like not much has happened in AZ. I assume we still believe that Biden has got this?

Hi BlueSwan---

Good to see you back and me and my Wife would love be able to go to Copenhagen for a proper visit (I spent a couple days backpacking in the City back in the early '90s, and we both spent about (12) Hours in the Airport back in the late '00s, and a bit later on almost had a chance to get relocated for a job out out there).

I will let others fill out the details and attempt to provide a brief Summary (Atlas Hive Feel Free to Correct and provide additional information).

1.) Part of Allegheny came in, including a mixture  of "Overseas Ballots", including Military Ballots, as well as some Provisionals, but I believe there are still a significant number of remaining ballots not counted today.

2.) Overall PA ballots continue to heavily favor Democrats, regardless of the "Provisionals", let alone Mail Ballots from Heavily Trump Counties such as Washington County.

3.) Mail Ballots arriving after election day are "segregated" and not included in Total Vote Counts yet, despite in some case having already been tabulated.

4.) Most of the Outstanding Ballots remaining continue to reside in heavily Democratic Counties, and even in Erie County, we have not seen the "Provisional Ballots" favor Trump theory manifest.

5.) Nevada--- I believe most of us is suspecting that the News Organizations are not calling it out of an abundance of caution, especially since the AZ Fox & AP calls left some of them "Gun Shy" about "Early Calls" where Early VbM vs Late VbM patterns shifted a bit from previous voting patterns.

TBH--- We saw something similar in Oregon, where DEMs were overwhelmingly leading Turnout vs REG PUBs and then the latest numbers show only a +0.5% D Turnout Gap.

6.) NV--- Atlas still has some conspiracy theories regarding media trying to string out the race over the Weekend for ratings, and other theories about how the news media is intimidated by Trump, etc...

Personally, I would ignore most of those takes.

7.) Most of the votes in NV remaining are in Clark County, which as you are well aware is a heavily DEM stronghold, but the "what if" scenarios regarding which votes have been counted in various parts of the huge Metropolis, "maybe somehow Henderson County or various uninc 'Burbs are the outstanding places".... "what if" Latinos are swinging harder to Trump in the Barrios of the Las Vegas.

Quite frankly in my mind this is a bunch of bunk bathtub Acid from the early '90s, but well we shall see.

8.) I'll trust Ralston the NV numbers and that he has essentially seen enough, but granted COVID-19 disproportionately hit Vegas, just like the Great Recession of '08, so maybe some more extreme shifts here than in some other places with "Trump Checks", etc getting delivered to folks for their "Gig Economy" work, etc.... So a bit wild out there, and I suspect many members of the Media

9.) GA--- Think we are down to less ballots remaining than the size of Biden's lead. Only reason the State hasn't been called yet is that news orgs don't want to call a state when it's under recount zone.   

Recounts rarely change anything for Statewide Elections unless it's a major "Tabulation Error", so Biden numbers should hold in GA unless there happened to be some weird thing with a particular voting machine in a certain place, etc....

10.) AZ---- Bit of a Trip. Should be a Biden hold based upon the % of Trump / Biden Ballots added, not looking good for Trump in the largest Counties.

Still, theoretically there are enough outstanding voted out in AZ for a Trump flip, but he's gotta be doing better in the various vote batches.

Thank you for the thorough response mate. Sounds like there isn't really much to worry about and we should just settle in for the wait. I was getting worried because I officially called PA and hence the election to Biden yesterday in our podcast on american politics, and to my students, and on my facebook page. And I wasn't being like, Biden will probably win. I was saying that Biden had DEFINITELY won PA and hence the election. Suddenly got concerned last night when it appeared that the outstanding vote in PA wasn't quite what we thought it was (with all the provisionals, etc).

[Pericles]

The 2024 Republican contenders need to look like they support Trump rigging the election to win over the base, but even if they could they wouldn't actually rig the election for Trump. If Trump can rig an election, the next thing to go is the 22nd Amendment, and that kills all their dreams.

[Rand]

I'm expecting a headline from the NY Daily News tomorrow like this:

America to Trump: YOU'RE FIRED!

I thought we were focused on unity, and not futher pissing off the other 50% of the country?

Liberals talk so much sh it.

I may literally be the only one on this forum who got tonight absolutely spot on.

How’s the humble pie?

We wouldn’t know. You ate it all.

[Splash]

Fulton County just came through with 5.1K ballots.

+2,818 Biden. His statewide lead now stands at 7,248 votes.

[Dr. Arch]

Surprise GA vote dump. Joe Biden is now ahead by over 7k votes!

[BlueSwan]

FULTON JOE!!!

[Ferguson97]

Biden leads by 0.24%... if he gets above 0.5%, Trump is not eligible for a recount.

[NOVA Green]

Oh dear, this thing STILL hasn't been called. Just woke up. Very disappointing.

So can anybody give me the rundown of what has happened over the last 8-9 hours or so?

- Biden up almost 29k in PA. Did Allegheny finally come in? Do we have any new info on what remains and why the hell they aren't calling it to end this nightmare?

- I assume that NV is still safe and the media is just not calling it because reasons?

- 4k+ ahead in GA. Do we even know what the remaining ballots are or how many military ballots have come in?

- It seems like not much has happened in AZ. I assume we still believe that Biden has got this?

Hi BlueSwan---

Good to see you back and me and my Wife would love be able to go to Copenhagen for a proper visit (I spent a couple days backpacking in the City back in the early '90s, and we both spent about (12) Hours in the Airport back in the late '00s, and a bit later on almost had a chance to get relocated for a job out out there).

I will let others fill out the details and attempt to provide a brief Summary (Atlas Hive Feel Free to Correct and provide additional information).

1.) Part of Allegheny came in, including a mixture  of "Overseas Ballots", including Military Ballots, as well as some Provisionals, but I believe there are still a significant number of remaining ballots not counted today.

2.) Overall PA ballots continue to heavily favor Democrats, regardless of the "Provisionals", let alone Mail Ballots from Heavily Trump Counties such as Washington County.

3.) Mail Ballots arriving after election day are "segregated" and not included in Total Vote Counts yet, despite in some case having already been tabulated.

4.) Most of the Outstanding Ballots remaining continue to reside in heavily Democratic Counties, and even in Erie County, we have not seen the "Provisional Ballots" favor Trump theory manifest.

5.) Nevada--- I believe most of us is suspecting that the News Organizations are not calling it out of an abundance of caution, especially since the AZ Fox & AP calls left some of them "Gun Shy" about "Early Calls" where Early VbM vs Late VbM patterns shifted a bit from previous voting patterns.

TBH--- We saw something similar in Oregon, where DEMs were overwhelmingly leading Turnout vs REG PUBs and then the latest numbers show only a +0.5% D Turnout Gap.

6.) NV--- Atlas still has some conspiracy theories regarding media trying to string out the race over the Weekend for ratings, and other theories about how the news media is intimidated by Trump, etc...

Personally, I would ignore most of those takes.

7.) Most of the votes in NV remaining are in Clark County, which as you are well aware is a heavily DEM stronghold, but the "what if" scenarios regarding which votes have been counted in various parts of the huge Metropolis, "maybe somehow Henderson County or various uninc 'Burbs are the outstanding places".... "what if" Latinos are swinging harder to Trump in the Barrios of the Las Vegas.

Quite frankly in my mind this is a bunch of bunk bathtub Acid from the early '90s, but well we shall see.

8.) I'll trust Ralston the NV numbers and that he has essentially seen enough, but granted COVID-19 disproportionately hit Vegas, just like the Great Recession of '08, so maybe some more extreme shifts here than in some other places with "Trump Checks", etc getting delivered to folks for their "Gig Economy" work, etc.... So a bit wild out there, and I suspect many members of the Media

9.) GA--- Think we are down to less ballots remaining than the size of Biden's lead. Only reason the State hasn't been called yet is that news orgs don't want to call a state when it's under recount zone.   

Recounts rarely change anything for Statewide Elections unless it's a major "Tabulation Error", so Biden numbers should hold in GA unless there happened to be some weird thing with a particular voting machine in a certain place, etc....

10.) AZ---- Bit of a Trip. Should be a Biden hold based upon the % of Trump / Biden Ballots added, not looking good for Trump in the largest Counties.

Still, theoretically there are enough outstanding voted out in AZ for a Trump flip, but he's gotta be doing better in the various vote batches.

Thank you for the thorough response mate. Sounds like there isn't really much to worry about and we should just settle in for the wait. I was getting worried because I officially called PA and hence the election to Biden yesterday in our podcast on american politics, and to my students, and on my facebook page. And I wasn't being like, Biden will probably win. I was saying that Biden had DEFINITELY won PA and hence the election. Suddenly got concerned last night when it appeared that the outstanding vote in PA wasn't quite what we thought it was (with all the provisionals, etc).

I am surprised to see that nobody else on Atlas has commented on your post to provide their own inputs, but I suspect partially it is that most folks have checked out of this thread knowing we are not going to get any updates until Tomorrow anywhere within any of the States still not called (Including AZ if we consider that to perhaps be an excessively aggressive early call.

The PA numbers alone continue to move increasingly negative against Trump, even within the context of the "Provisional Ballot Theory" of a Trump come from behind win in PA, based upon practically any objective metric.

In fact the preponderance of evidence will likely support a Biden win of at minimum +50k D if not much higher.

The number of "sequestered ballots" (Still not included in official results) appear to be extremely low (4k Ballots thus far??), regardless of the SCOTUS decision to basically put them "ON HOLD" and "NOT INCLUDE IN OFFICIAL COUNTS", which is basically how the PA Election authorities have already been doing it.

Media stunt on the part of PUBs to create doubt and confusion about election counting in PA.

Regardless for your students and professional career, important thing to note is that there are even more ballots yet to be counted, the trajectory appears to be clear and that we have yet to see any real evidence that Trump is winning the "late votes".

Arizona trends might be running a bit different with shifts in Early VbM, Late VbM, etc....

You can always use Oregon as an example from my posts on Atlas about Voter Turnout Levels by Party REG and Partisan Enthusiasm in 2020.   

[Bootes Void]

Maybe Joe might Ga by 20k afterall if the NYT needle was correct

[ucscgaldamez1]

I was watching a report by NBC news report that essentially said that the reason why PA has not been called has to do with the provisional ballots. That what they are seeing is that they are similar to the results of those who voted on election day (I don't know what the % break down that is - 59 to 41% or so?) and that's the reason. If there are 115k outstanding provisional ballots and they would break down this way, that would net Trump around 21k, but he's already down close to 29k and going even higher...so maybe they just want all mail vote to come in and then make the call? But we also know from others (i.e. Erie county) that the margins of those who voted provisionally were somewhat resembling the up to date margins of those counties.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/live-blog/2020-11-06-trump-biden-election-results-n1246707/ncrd1246888#liveBlogHeader

[Rand]

Biden leads by 0.24%... if he gets above 0.5%, Trump is not eligible for a recount.

Let’s hope enough ballots can materialize out of thin air to accomplish this.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Where are they getting these ballots anyway?

[Splash]

I was watching a report by NBC news report that essentially said that the reason why PA has not been called has to do with the provisional ballots. That what they are seeing is that they are similar to the results of those who voted on election day (I don't know what the % break down that is - 59 to 41% or so?) and that's the reason. If there are 115k outstanding provisional ballots and they would break down this way, that would net Trump around 21k, but he's already down close to 29k and going even higher...so maybe they just want all mail vote to come in and then make the call? But we also know from others (i.e. Erie county) that the margins of those who voted provisionally were somewhat resembling the up to date margins of those counties.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/live-blog/2020-11-06-trump-biden-election-results-n1246707/ncrd1246888#liveBlogHeader

Yeah, but from what I understand, the outstanding provisional ballots are heavily weighted toward SEPA. If that's actually the case, I don't think we should assume that the breakdown will mirror the election day vote statewide. I wouldn't be surprised if Biden ended up netting votes overall due to the provisional ballots due to the fact that so many of them are apparently from Philadelphia.

[emailking]

What date does the Electoral College meet? Trump can try legal shenanigans until then but after that date there is constitutionally nothing he can do.

They vote on December 13 and the votes are counted/affirmed by Congress on January 6.

[AGA]

There are more than 14k provisional ballots left in GA.

Trump has won the 2.200 that were counted so far by a 59-40 margin.

So he'll net 2800. Not enough.

[AGA]

I'll just leave this here.