2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Pulaski]

Someone tell me why PA is so close when it was supposed to be a comfortable Biden win...

 Because we're still waiting on a ton of f**king ballets. Oh my f**king god. You are insufferable.

[wbrocks67]

People seem to have wrong information about Philly. There is still 20-25K left *REGULAR* mail in ballots to count. Then there is like at least 15-20K provisionals. That all doesn't count anything that was after 8pm Tuesday

Because there was 53K regular ballots this morning. Then they dumped ~30K. So now theres about 23K by my calculation left of regular mail ins.

[Inmate Trump]

Is there any reason to be worried about PA, AZ, or GA?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is there any reason to be worried about PA, AZ, or GA?

None, slightly, slightly.

[Del Tachi]

Why do you have all the ballots on one paper? In the UK, we'd have separate ballots for each election.

Because this is how long the ballots are:

Front side: https://i.ibb.co/RgPsjSn/FCFE6361-BBDC-4-BBA-81-EA-A510333-FD940.jpg

Back side: https://i.ibb.co/Wvx51v1/5-FC33672-2-A19-4-C05-AE71-65-D9-F8-D0-A6-A2.jpg

wtf...university regents in Michigan are elected statewide!?

I don't want to hear anyone from Michigan ever give Mississippi a haranguing that we still elect county coroners, lol 

[ultraviolet]

I just want networks to call it so people stop telling me the DDHQ call is fake news

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Trump only needs 54% according to Phil Mattingly and he's been getting at least 59% in the last three dumps. His overall averge is about 58%. He's on track in AZ.

In Georgia the military ballots if they go heavily to him can easily overcome the margin of 1,600.

It all comes down to PA and what Kornacki was saying about the 100,000 provisionals continuing to be heavily Republican, as they have so far. If they are, Trump can pull it out.

The Democrats celebrated too early.

No reason believe either GA military ballots or the PA provisional will favor Trump, if anything, it's likely that Biden gains from both.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Why do you have all the ballots on one paper? In the UK, we'd have separate ballots for each election.

Because this is how long the ballots are:

Front side: https://i.ibb.co/RgPsjSn/FCFE6361-BBDC-4-BBA-81-EA-A510333-FD940.jpg

Back side: https://i.ibb.co/Wvx51v1/5-FC33672-2-A19-4-C05-AE71-65-D9-F8-D0-A6-A2.jpg

wtf...university regents in Michigan are elected statewide!?

I don't want to hear anyone from Michigan ever give Mississippi a haranguing that we still elect county coroners, lol  

Every state in the United States has totally absurd elected positions. I mean in the USA you f!cking elect judges and sheriffs.

[DaleCooper]

Nate Silver debunked the theory that PA's provisional ballots favor Trump on Twitter, saying that the batches that favored him came from R counties but actually were worse for Trump than their counties' margin.

Remember, Biden is in the lead now in PA. Trump has to actually win these outstanding ballots and half of them are from Philly.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looking through the county level swings from NYT. A couple areas stand out (Latinos4Trump, Mormons coming home, trendz in southern Midwest and non-deep south, Blue Wall reforming, angry New England women, D.C. hates orange man)

Geez, though, the bottom really fell out in Colorado and the Atlanta metro for the GOP; I think it's safe to say that Colorado is blue for the foreseeable future, and the Republicans are clearly in freefall in Georgia. Well done, Stacey Abrams; really hope ATL isn't maxed out for Democrats quite yet. This should also be setting off alarm bells for the GOP, because if something like this were to happen in North Carolina the state is instantly light blue, although I'm not sure if the Democrats have as much room to grow there.

NC just seems like it's stagnating and won't really start trending either direction, which is annoying because Ds always seem to narrowly lose it. There's still plenty of areas of NC that both parties have to improve in, and they will likely largely cancel eachother out.

[Inmate Trump]

Is there any reason to be worried about PA, AZ, or GA?

None, slightly, slightly.

Good.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Is there any reason to be worried about PA, AZ, or GA?

None, slightly, slightly.

Seconding this. I'd put AZ and (pending recount) GA as Lean-Likely and PA as Safe in all but name. (However, I think AZ should just be called already because news organizations with precinct-level data have already done so and insist they know what they're talking about.)

[wbrocks67]

Is there any reason to be worried about PA, AZ, or GA?

Do people not read this thread? Or are they just trolling? You can read the past few pages to get the gist.

[Benjamin Frank]

Why do you have all the ballots on one paper? In the UK, we'd have separate ballots for each election.

Because this is how long the ballots are:

Front side: https://i.ibb.co/RgPsjSn/FCFE6361-BBDC-4-BBA-81-EA-A510333-FD940.jpg

Back side: https://i.ibb.co/Wvx51v1/5-FC33672-2-A19-4-C05-AE71-65-D9-F8-D0-A6-A2.jpg

wtf...university regents in Michigan are elected statewide!?

I don't want to hear anyone from Michigan ever give Mississippi a haranguing that we still elect county coroners, lol 

The joke in U.S politics is that even dog catchers are elected, but it is true that at least the sanitation commission is often an elected position. (Do not vote for Homer Simpson as sanitation commissioner.)

That the ballot is so long is one reason why mail in ballots make so much sense.  People can consider their vote for every office now.  Not saying they will, but it's much easier to do so having the ballot with you on your kitchen table.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Silver debunked the theory that PA's provisional ballots favor Trump on Twitter, saying that the batches that favored him came from R counties but actually were worse for Trump than their counties' margin.

Remember, Biden is in the lead now in PA. Trump has to actually win these outstanding ballots and half of them are from Philly.

Here are Nate's tweets on it:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324816362108264449
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324817435237797893

[wbrocks67]

Maricopa only has what, 140K left? If the rest of it goes like they just did today, Trump would only net like 10-12K votes out of that. Biden +40K right now. Not nearly enough.

[T'Chenka]

We only need Biden to expand his PA lead by maybe 10 or 20 thousand and the networks should call it. So OF COURSE the faucet of PA votec updates slows to a drip this afternoon. Ugh...

[Inmate Trump]

Is there any reason to be worried about PA, AZ, or GA?

Do people not read this thread? Or are they just trolling? You can read the past few pages to get the gist.

The reason I asked the question is because I did read the last few posts before mine.  The one from Beet is what made me wonder.  And while I realize I shouldn't put much stock in what he said, I still wondered.

[wbrocks67]

Nate Silver debunked the theory that PA's provisional ballots favor Trump on Twitter, saying that the batches that favored him came from R counties but actually were worse for Trump than their counties' margin.

Remember, Biden is in the lead now in PA. Trump has to actually win these outstanding ballots and half of them are from Philly.

Here are Nate's tweets on it:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324816362108264449
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324817435237797893

I think these are an *additional* 40K on top of the original 40K left. As of this morning, there was 53K regular mail in ballots left to count in Philly. They counted 30K, meaning there is still 23K REGULAR mail in ballots

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

We only need Biden to expand his PA lead by maybe 10 or 20 thousand and the networks should call it. So OF COURSE the faucet of PA votec updates slows to a drip this afternoon. Ugh...

CNN said an hour or so ago that Allegheny is supposed to start dumping starting at about 5.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From the AZ data guy:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324816592530669568

[Hammy]

Is there any reason to be worried about PA, AZ, or GA?

Do people not read this thread? Or are they just trolling? You can read the past few pages to get the gist.

The reason I asked the question is because I did read the last few posts before mine.  The one from Beet is what made me wonder.  And while I realize I shouldn't put much stock in what he said, I still wondered.

Don't believe anything from Beet--he's openly supported Trump multiple times in the past and is doing nothing but posting misinformation at this point.

[n1240]

Trump only needs 54% according to Phil Mattingly and he's been getting at least 59% in the last three dumps. His overall averge is about 58%. He's on track in AZ.

In Georgia the military ballots if they go heavily to him can easily overcome the margin of 1,600.

It all comes down to PA and what Kornacki was saying about the 100,000 provisionals continuing to be heavily Republican, as they have so far. If they are, Trump can pull it out.

The Democrats celebrated too early.

This entire post is misinformation.

As I said his math is wrong in Arizona - 200k outstanding ballots with a 40k deficit, 40k/200k = needs 20% lead over Biden to win, which likely means over 60%. Also misleading to say he's been getting over 59% in the latest dumps - yes this is true but these are Republican counties and Trump isn't getting the necessary swing to get 60%+ statewide. Also the last Maricopa dump had Trump at 51.4% and there isn't any evidence to suggest the later dumps will be better for him in Maricopa.

In Georgia Biden will grow his lead by 2k from Gwinnett, and military/overseas ballots will be a wash and likely only a thousand or two in volume and will probably be roughly tied, Trump will in no way overtake the lead off these ballots.

In PA the provisional ballots are disproportionately in high pop centers so they won't affect Biden that much (also Biden will probably grow his lead to around 80k off mail so that wouldn't be enough provisional ballots to allow Trump to take the lead in PA again).

[lfromnj]

Navajo is closer to swing but the other 2 are pretty red but yeah Biden should win.

[DaleCooper]

The "Here's how Trump can still win" game that the networks are playing is actually extremely unethical and dangerous. They're framing this like it's a football game or something that Biden came back and won in the 4th quarter. All of these votes were cast on or before election day, and we've been able to project the results of PA and Nevada (and possibly Arizona) for over 48 hours now. They're playing right into Trump's desire to delegitimize the election.