2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Benjamin Frank]

Also giving pronunciation lessons: DeKalb (second syllable like taxi cab) County; House-ton County; Al-Bane-y.

I found out from watching CNN that DeKalb and Gwinnett are actually pronounced duh-KAB and gwin-ETT, not duh-KAHLB and GWIN-it. Good thing no one on Atlas could hear me mentally mispronouncing DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Albany counties! I already knew about House-ton from someone on Atlas though.

Great! Now try Dacula, Dahlonega, Lithonia, and Martinez.  

If you're Trump, try Yosemite.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The Doom is settling in on the right.

Your signature is...really upsetting and unsettling, Kander, but I can't put my finger on why

[BlueSwan]

Well I just donated $10 each to Ossoff and Warnock.

Just to clarify: as a foreigner, I am in no way allowed to donate to a US senate campaign, right?

No.

Unless you send the money to a US citizen who donates it for you.

Our own Antonio V once had to get a refund from the Sanders 2016 campaign after he unwittingly violated this law.

OK, I'll keep my vast fortune and buy some more boardgames instead.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1324810864562630656
This is a red county. By my napkin math, I don't believe Trump won this by enough to close the gap meaningfully.

The guy on CNN not named John King seems to think Trump needs to win the remaining vote by 54% to take the lead, but I think his math is wrong.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Kind of crazy how Trump did better with non-white voters than any Republican nominee since 1960 and still lost!

Shocking, really.  Trump of all people.  Very probably the most racist president in modern times.

People have talked about this and beaten it to death and hurled plenty of insults at those who explain why and give reasons that are not always 100% positive or don't seem rational (without actually refuting any points made), and the fact that this happens explains exactly why this is so hard for people to grasp. Many people just don't understand other communities or cultures, and have to see that understanding other communities and cultures is knowing the good and the bad, and understanding that seemingly irrational behavior to one person is completely normal to another. There are people I know from Mexico and Taiwan who say that there are some things they just don't understand about America/Americans because they make absolutely no sense, and when I reflect on these things, I definitely think they have a point.

In the end, people of color supporting someone as racist as Trump in larger numbers than before makes about as much sense as rural working class white voters supporting someone as far removed from the working class in rural areas as Trump. It seems irrational, and you can definitely argue that it is to an extent (or criticize the logic behind the decision), but it does pay to understand why people see things differently.

Please, educate us. NOT sarcastic here.

I can't speak for latinos or blacks, but i can contribute a bit as an Asian that most Asians, particularly older ones, are socially conservative. If exit polls are correct that Asians swing toward Trump, I'm not surprised by it because my anecdotal experience corresponds with it as well.

Many of us have first generation immigrant parents that would vote for the conservative party of our native country.

We have identified as non-privileged minorities and sided as Obama's coalition but strangely enough, I have begun to observe more than a few around me that, despite Trump's rhetorics, seem to sympathize, and even extol merits in his behaviors (media is untrustworthy, BLM is rude)

These are some of the things I have heard over the last 4 years. It's unfortunate that Trump will be written in history as racially depolarizing candidate but whether this happened because of him and not in spite of him is less conspicuous to me. I'm still of the belief that Kasich would have won OH by double digits and Midwest convincingly over Clinton and Biden. (Kasich had a positive net approval among blacks in 2016) In some sense, one can argue that electing Trump might have decelerated Democrats' collapse among non-whites.

Adding on to this with Latinos and Hispanics, if I can, with the exception of Cubans, who can never be grouped in the rest, you have to remember a few things. First is that most Latinos are very socially conservative, they're mainly catholic, so that plays a lot, they can be swayed. Another thing is the whole "Latinx" crowd, for politically active Latinos, even democrats if they're not young SJW's, I've found that it very much pisses them off, I've also seen many feel, especially in rural areas, used by Democrats that they've voted for for decades, look in TX-23 in those rural Latino areas.

[Kuumo]

Also giving pronunciation lessons: DeKalb (second syllable like taxi cab) County; House-ton County; Al-Bane-y.

I found out from watching CNN that DeKalb and Gwinnett are actually pronounced duh-KAB and gwin-ETT, not duh-KAHLB and GWIN-it. Good thing no one on Atlas could hear me mentally mispronouncing DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Albany counties! I already knew about House-ton from someone on Atlas though.

Great! Now try Dacula, Dahlonega, Lithonia, and Martinez. 

I'd rather not.

[cp]

https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1324810864562630656
This is a red county. By my napkin math, I don't believe Trump won this by enough to close the gap meaningfully.

The guy on CNN not named John King seems to think Trump needs to win the remaining vote by 54% to take the lead, but I think his math is wrong.

Her name is Christiane Amanpour!

[brucejoel99]

Well I just donated $10 each to Ossoff and Warnock.

Just to clarify: as a foreigner, I am in no way allowed to donate to a US senate campaign, right?

No.

Unless you send the money to a US citizen who donates it for you.

Pretty sure isn’t kosher either.

Yeah, as if the FEC would care if I transfer 20€ to the US and some US citizen then donates (in his/her name !) to the GA campaigns ...

...

Yes. The FEC cares about illegal campaign contributions. That's literally their job.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

The Doom is settling in on the right.

Your signature is...really upsetting and unsettling, Kander, but I can't put my finger on why

A new Chad is coming to Pennsylvania Avenue.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Trump has told people he has no plans to concede even if his path to victory is blocked

Even as vote totals now show him trailing former Vice President Joe Biden in key battlegrounds, Trump has not prepared a concession speech and in conversations with allies in recent days has said he has no intention of conceding the election, people familiar with the matter said.

So far he has been bolstered in his stance by those closest to him, including his senior advisers and his adult sons, who have mounted an aggressive effort in the courts to challenge the results and have pressured other Republicans into defending him.

Top aides, including his chief of staff Mark Meadows, have not attempted to come to terms with the President about the reality of what is happening. Instead, they have fed his baseless claim that the election is being stolen from underneath him. That has led to some annoyance among staff, who believe Meadows is feeding the President's baseless claim that the election is illegitimate.

If he really goes this route, and especially if he tries to litigate everything...I don't see how that does anything except give the Democrats in the two GA Senate runoffs a better chance at winning.

Him acting like a child will galvanize his detractors big time...and while it may do the same to his supporters, I'm not sure if they'll be as inclined to vote in as large numbers when his name isn't on the ballot and they're already demoralized.

And his place in history is now set right?  Historians won't look kindly on this.  He'll be seen as our worst president ever.

I mean baby jails got him at least down to Jacksonian levels of wrong side of history, pandemic response failure shot him past Bush and into Johnson/Hooverville. Now he's actually trying to start a civil war to finally take Buchanan off his perch. The man is a machine

[GeorgiaModerate]

Also giving pronunciation lessons: DeKalb (second syllable like taxi cab) County; House-ton County; Al-Bane-y.

I found out from watching CNN that DeKalb and Gwinnett are actually pronounced duh-KAB and gwin-ETT, not duh-KAHLB and GWIN-it. Good thing no one on Atlas could hear me mentally mispronouncing DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Albany counties! I already knew about House-ton from someone on Atlas though.

Great! Now try Dacula, Dahlonega, Lithonia, and Martinez. 

Don't forget Taliaferro County.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1324810864562630656
This is a red county. By my napkin math, I don't believe Trump won this by enough to close the gap meaningfully.

The guy on CNN not named John King seems to think Trump needs to win the remaining vote by 54% to take the lead, but I think his math is wrong.

Thank goodness it's from Pinal County.

If it's from Maricopa County, I might get a heart attack.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1324810864562630656
This is a red county. By my napkin math, I don't believe Trump won this by enough to close the gap meaningfully.

The guy on CNN not named John King seems to think Trump needs to win the remaining vote by 54% to take the lead, but I think his math is wrong.

That math is very bad, about 200k ballots left statewide I believe, so Trump needs to win by 20% statewide to win Arizona.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1324769516153409536?s=21

YUP.

What the HELL are the networks waiting on?

[Crumpets]

Also giving pronunciation lessons: DeKalb (second syllable like taxi cab) County; House-ton County; Al-Bane-y.

I found out from watching CNN that DeKalb and Gwinnett are actually pronounced duh-KAB and gwin-ETT, not duh-KAHLB and GWIN-it. Good thing no one on Atlas could hear me mentally mispronouncing DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Albany counties! I already knew about House-ton from someone on Atlas though.

So many counties I've learned to pronounce this election!

I can contribute a couple from my neck of the woods:

Pend Oreille = pawn doe-RAY
Okanogan = oak-uh-NAWG-in
Spokane = spow-CAN

[Bacon King]

Also giving pronunciation lessons: DeKalb (second syllable like taxi cab) County; House-ton County; Al-Bane-y.

I found out from watching CNN that DeKalb and Gwinnett are actually pronounced duh-KAB and gwin-ETT, not duh-KAHLB and GWIN-it. Good thing no one on Atlas could hear me mentally mispronouncing DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Albany counties! I already knew about House-ton from someone on Atlas though.

Great! Now try Dacula, Dahlonega, Lithonia, and Martinez. 

don't forget Taliaferro!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Yeah that Pinal margin isn't nearly good enough. Pinal, Yavapai, and Mojave are the GOP vote breadbaskets of Arizona and he needs to be clearing two thirds to have a shot.

[Baki]

https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1324810864562630656
This is a red county. By my napkin math, I don't believe Trump won this by enough to close the gap meaningfully.

The guy on CNN not named John King seems to think Trump needs to win the remaining vote by 54% to take the lead, but I think his math is wrong.

Phil Mattingly.
I actually think he's quite good.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1324810864562630656
This is a red county. By my napkin math, I don't believe Trump won this by enough to close the gap meaningfully.

The guy on CNN not named John King seems to think Trump needs to win the remaining vote by 54% to take the lead, but I think his math is wrong.

Thank goodness it's from Pinal County.

If it's from Maricopa County, I might get a heart attack.

These are just slightly more friendly to Trump than Pinal's overall results so far.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1324810864562630656
This is a red county. By my napkin math, I don't believe Trump won this by enough to close the gap meaningfully.

The guy on CNN not named John King seems to think Trump needs to win the remaining vote by 54% to take the lead, but I think his math is wrong.

Phil Mattingly.
I actually think he's quite good.

I'm sure he is.

[Tender Branson]

Well I just donated $10 each to Ossoff and Warnock.

Just to clarify: as a foreigner, I am in no way allowed to donate to a US senate campaign, right?

No.

Unless you send the money to a US citizen who donates it for you.

Pretty sure isn’t kosher either.

Yeah, as if the FEC would care if I transfer 20€ to the US and some US citizen then donates (in his/her name !) to the GA campaigns ...

...

Yes. The FEC cares about illegal campaign contributions. That's literally their job.

I’m not familiar with campaign finance laws in the US.

Is there a section somewhere that explicitly bans foreigners to transfer small amounts of money to a US citizen, who then donates it to a campaign ?

As long as it’s not large sums or a concentrated large amount of foreigners doing so, it could be ok.

For example, there could be a US exchange student in Austria who’s a fan of the Warnock campaign and I’d like to contribute because the student is a friend of mine.

I give the friend 20€ and back in the US he donates it.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1324769516153409536?s=21

YUP.

What the HELL are the networks waiting on?

Hypothesis: The Biden team has obviously told the networks about the primetime speech tonight, and the networks are all waiting until before or after to strategically release the calls together to unify the attention of the public.

[South Dakota Democrat]

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1324769516153409536?s=21

YUP.

What the HELL are the networks waiting on?

I suspect they're waiting for the evening to get more views. They shouldn't be,  though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1324769516153409536?s=21
YUP.

What the HELL are the networks waiting on?

I suspect they're waiting for the evening to get more views. They shouldn't be,  though.

The 2016 race was called in the wee hours of the morning, so I don't think that's it.

[President Johnson]

I don't know why most TV panels are still saying "uh, we don't have enough evidence for fraud....". There nothing such as fraud going on. Trump is just making this up 100% because he can't acknowledge he lost the election. It doesn't take rocket science to figure this out.