2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

House-ton County

I just...gagged a little. 

Relax, that's my hometown. We're very touchy on people mispronouncing our name.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

LGBT trump-supporting people are more likely to be uncloseted compared to 4 years ago just because of graduate social change around the acceptability of homosexuality

I assume Lindsey Graham is the exception that proves the rule.

[pppolitics]

The last AZ dump was heavy Trump.

The one from this morning?

No, it wasn't.

right now around 5K votes, the margin is now 40954 statewide

I see what you mean

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

Where are these huge margins coming from?

Biden 34.0% / 66.0% Trump

Biden 18.7% / 81.3% Trump

[Inmate Trump]

Trump has told people he has no plans to concede even if his path to victory is blocked

Even as vote totals now show him trailing former Vice President Joe Biden in key battlegrounds, Trump has not prepared a concession speech and in conversations with allies in recent days has said he has no intention of conceding the election, people familiar with the matter said.

So far he has been bolstered in his stance by those closest to him, including his senior advisers and his adult sons, who have mounted an aggressive effort in the courts to challenge the results and have pressured other Republicans into defending him.

Top aides, including his chief of staff Mark Meadows, have not attempted to come to terms with the President about the reality of what is happening. Instead, they have fed his baseless claim that the election is being stolen from underneath him. That has led to some annoyance among staff, who believe Meadows is feeding the President's baseless claim that the election is illegitimate.

If he really goes this route, and especially if he tries to litigate everything...I don't see how that does anything except give the Democrats in the two GA Senate runoffs a better chance at winning.

Him acting like a child will galvanize his detractors big time...and while it may do the same to his supporters, I'm not sure if they'll be as inclined to vote in as large numbers when his name isn't on the ballot and they're already demoralized.

And his place in history is now set right?  Historians won't look kindly on this.  He'll be seen as our worst president ever.

[BlueSwan]

A capable scam artist knows when to fold the tent and leave town:

https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1324765319626395648

I don't follow these nutters. What was the Q "theory" on how the election would go down?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1324727522915921920

[DaleCooper]

Senator Casey said again within the last two or three hours that he still expects PA to go for Biden by about 100,000 votes. He hasn't wavered a bit and he has all the information we have, and probably more. The hesitation to call PA seems to purely be a networks thing at this point and I don't understand the reasoning.

[Horus]

The last AZ dump was heavy Trump.

The one from this morning?

No, it wasn't.

right now around 5K votes, the margin is now 40954 statewide

I see what you mean

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

Where are these huge margins coming from?

Biden 34.0% / 66.0% Trump

Biden 18.7% / 81.3% Trump

So much for the rest of the AZ ballots being more Dem favorable...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Hey, gonna be that guy, just got back here after many hours, can someone give me a basic gestalt on what I've missed? Where does everything stand right now? This thread is my primary source of info and I love you all

Trump is still undershooting his targets in Arizona, and Biden is expanding his lead in Nevada. A consensus is developing on the forum and among Silver-type bean-counters that those states badly need to be called already.

A few, mostly online, news outlets--DDHQ, Vox, Business Insider--have called Pennsylvania and the election for Biden, but the big networks and newspapers have not. The rationale for this is that provisionals may be more Republican than mail ballots; however, this is unlikely to appreciably dent Biden's lead since most provisionals outstanding are from Democratic areas. The real reason is likely that "BIDEN ON VERGE OF VICTORY" is ratings gold in a way that "BIDEN WINS" is not.

Georgia is headed to a recount but Biden currently leads by about 1.5k.

Trump isn't any closer to conceding.

[Asta]

Kind of crazy how Trump did better with non-white voters than any Republican nominee since 1960 and still lost!

Shocking, really.  Trump of all people.  Very probably the most racist president in modern times.

People have talked about this and beaten it to death and hurled plenty of insults at those who explain why and give reasons that are not always 100% positive or don't seem rational (without actually refuting any points made), and the fact that this happens explains exactly why this is so hard for people to grasp. Many people just don't understand other communities or cultures, and have to see that understanding other communities and cultures is knowing the good and the bad, and understanding that seemingly irrational behavior to one person is completely normal to another. There are people I know from Mexico and Taiwan who say that there are some things they just don't understand about America/Americans because they make absolutely no sense, and when I reflect on these things, I definitely think they have a point.

In the end, people of color supporting someone as racist as Trump in larger numbers than before makes about as much sense as rural working class white voters supporting someone as far removed from the working class in rural areas as Trump. It seems irrational, and you can definitely argue that it is to an extent (or criticize the logic behind the decision), but it does pay to understand why people see things differently.

Please, educate us. NOT sarcastic here.

I can't speak for latinos or blacks, but i can contribute a bit as an Asian that most Asians, particularly older ones, are socially conservative. If exit polls are correct that Asians swing toward Trump, I'm not surprised by it because my anecdotal experience corresponds with it as well.

Many of us have first generation immigrant parents that would vote for the conservative party of our native country.

We have identified as non-privileged minorities and sided as Obama's coalition but strangely enough, I have begun to observe more than a few around me that, despite Trump's rhetorics, seem to sympathize, and even extol merits in his behaviors (media is untrustworthy, BLM is rude)

These are some of the things I have heard over the last 4 years. It's unfortunate that Trump will be written in history as racially depolarizing candidate but whether this happened because of him and not in spite of him is less conspicuous to me. I'm still of the belief that Kasich would have won OH by double digits and Midwest convincingly over Clinton and Biden. (Kasich had a positive net approval among blacks in 2016) In some sense, one can argue that electing Trump might have decelerated Democrats' collapse among non-whites.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Well I just donated $10 each to Ossoff and Warnock.

[Benjamin Frank]

Senator Casey said again within the last two or three hours that he still expects PA to go for Biden by about 100,000 votes. He hasn't wavered a bit and he has all the information we have, and probably more. The hesitation to call PA seems to purely be a networks thing at this point and I don't understand the reasoning.

Maybe they are concerned the provisional votes might go heavily for Trump.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

(NYT):  Important amid lawsuits in Pa.: Ballots arriving after Election Day are segregated. They are then processed and counted separately, and, for now, not added to the current totals.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1324799848168722432

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Hey, gonna be that guy, just got back here after many hours, can someone give me a basic gestalt on what I've missed? Where does everything stand right now? This thread is my primary source of info and I love you all

Trump is still undershooting his targets in Arizona, and Biden is expanding his lead in Nevada. A consensus is developing on the forum and among Silver-type bean-counters that those states badly need to be called already.

A few, mostly online, news outlets--DDHQ, Vox, Business Insider--have called Pennsylvania and the election for Biden, but the big networks and newspapers have not. The rationale for this is that provisionals may be more Republican than mail ballots; however, this is unlikely to appreciably dent Biden's lead since most provisionals outstanding are from Democratic areas. The real reason is likely that "BIDEN ON VERGE OF VICTORY" is ratings gold in a way that "BIDEN WINS" is not.

Georgia is headed to a recount but Biden currently leads by about 1.5k.

Trump isn't any closer to conceding.

Wow, Arizona really did tighten significantly from when I last checked! Not enough for Trump, but a lot closer than I expected. Fox was definitely too quick on their call here.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1324799848168722432

Hmmmm......if only there was some legislative body that could have done something about that.....

[Silent Hunter]

Why do you have all the ballots on one paper? In the UK, we'd have separate ballots for each election.

[DaleCooper]

Senator Casey said again within the last two or three hours that he still expects PA to go for Biden by about 100,000 votes. He hasn't wavered a bit and he has all the information we have, and probably more. The hesitation to call PA seems to purely be a networks thing at this point and I don't understand the reasoning.

Maybe they are concerned the provisional votes might go heavily for Trump.

Nate Cohn says they're likely to favor Biden.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I don't blame those for wanting to think Trump was an utterly terrible candidate.
But fact of the matter is that whatever can be said about his record as President, he's a strong performer electorally, though it's very much a regional-based appeal concentrated in the MW. He's doing worse than generic R in the Sunbelt.
A big part of it is that he's a very proficient liar. He tells so many lies, it's impossible debunking them all. A media outlet tried to count the lies he's said, but they gave up. It's that bad.

He's also able to appeal with a subset of the population who don't like the mainstream media and are persuadable. These people don't trust what the media says about him. The media's statements seem excessive to them. It seems they are making him into a strawman. A week ago or so I thought about why he has appeal and supporters. Part of this has to be blamed on the media, for both caring more about money and clicks than about the truth, and for excessive self-righteousness. I was a firm Clinton supporter in 2016 and I still feel a bit mad at the media for the emails stuff. I still don't trust the media wholly. But also, for a second imagine if you were a politically apathetic Trump supporter and you saw the media saying all the things it did. Why would you trust the mainstream news over the man himself? Especially when they are relying on "anonymous sources".

The Trumpist base is one that would be rudderless without him. For them, he is a rock. When he goes and says stuff like the media is enemy of the people and says the media lies, his words go more unquestioned because they rely on him for information. And partisan polarization only intensifies all this, by making them less liable to trusting what the other side says and be more willing to read their actions as carrying bad faith intentions.

Trump is an entertainer, and he has never strayed away from providing entertainment. For tribal Republicans, he is their fighter in the ring. It should shock no one that Trump did so well in 2016 and 2020.

Thoughts on this?

I agree with many posters' takes that the sensationalist mainstream media is biased in Trump's favor, despite being negatively biased in their reporting on him. I certainly agree with Nathan's assessment that many figures in the media-industrial complex want/wanted Trump to be reelected.

[Rand]

Well I just donated $10 each to Ossoff and Warnock.

Big spenda.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The last AZ dump was heavy Trump.

The one from this morning?

No, it wasn't.

right now around 5K votes, the margin is now 40954 statewide

I see what you mean

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

Where are these huge margins coming from?

Biden 34.0% / 66.0% Trump

Biden 18.7% / 81.3% Trump

So much for the rest of the AZ ballots being more Dem favorable...

I would guess these are not Maricopa ballots, but rather from one of the several small, heavily Republican counties that still had a few thousand outstanding ballots.

[MaxQue]

Why do you have all the ballots on one paper? In the UK, we'd have separate ballots for each election.

You would have 20+ different papers?

[BlueSwan]

Well I just donated $10 each to Ossoff and Warnock.

Just to clarify: as a foreigner, I am in no way allowed to donate to a US senate campaign, right?

[afleitch]

I'll say something about the gays later. But the LGBT vote is 7% of all voters which is impressive.

[Kuumo]

Also giving pronunciation lessons: DeKalb (second syllable like taxi cab) County; House-ton County; Al-Bane-y.

I found out from watching CNN that DeKalb and Gwinnett are actually pronounced duh-KAB and gwin-ETT, not duh-KAHLB and GWIN-it. Good thing no one on Atlas could hear me mentally mispronouncing DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Albany counties! I already knew about House-ton from someone on Atlas though.