2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

The way this is going we could get this thread to a thousand pages.

[Blue3]

Which presidential term will Biden's be most like?

FDR 1933?

Truman 1949?

LBJ 1965?

Carter 1977?

HW 1989?

Clinton 1993?

Bush 2001?

Obama 2009?

Either Clinton or Carter

George HW Bush

There's going to be no legislative agenda, and very few appointments, possibly even blocking Biden from having a Cabinet.

[Crumpets]

Let's all take a second and be glad that California isn't a swing state - it's still only at 77% counted. Ditto Alaska.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The way this is going we could get this thread to a 1,000 pages.

True.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I would guess that we'll see the networks calls the race once the Allegheny vote comes in, which will put Biden's PA lead well over 0.5%.

I doubt it, if provisionals are GOP friendly and if there really are 100,000 of them they could cut into if not completely erase Biden's lead.

I don't think we'll have a call from PA until at least Monday.

They've been GOP friendly because they've come from rural areas. The vast majority of outstanding provisional are from urban centers, meaning they'll lean Biden.

Ok I feel better about PA now. That was a rollercoaster

An artificially manufactured one. Classic Atlas.

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyleKulinski/status/1324735367610798081
lol

The left is not going to get far if it keep believing in the delusion that a majority of voters are closet progressives who are just waiting to cast their ballots for Bernie Sanders or AOC.

- 63% support for a 15 Dollar minimum wage  
- 66% support healthcare for all
- 63% support tuition free universities

Don't cite polls, you know how awful they were

Historically, issue polls have been much more accurate than election polls.

     Key is most voters aren't Atlas posters. They don't really care that much about issues beyond one or two pet projects, if even that. The proportion of voters who are swayed by those issues isn't as high as 60-something %.

[cg41386]

Yikes, Pennsylvania is gonna be a lot closer than we originally thought.  the remaining provisional ballots are included in the 40k Philadelphia has left

Huh?

There are a lot of PA ballots still out in places other than Philly.

Well of course, but it’s definitely not going to be “closer than we originally thought.”

[Tender Branson]

Livestream of US vote count:

[emailking]

I think what I posted is just an indication of why they're not calling it, not an argument that Trump will win FWIW.

[Figueira]

Let's all take a second and be glad that California isn't a swing state - it's still only at 77% counted. Ditto Alaska.

Hey, Alaska could be a swing state for all we know. But it's not populous enough to make a difference in most cases.

[Tekken_Guy]

I would guess that we'll see the networks calls the race once the Allegheny vote comes in, which will put Biden's PA lead well over 0.5%.

I doubt it, if provisionals are GOP friendly and if there really are 100,000 of them they could cut into if not completely erase Biden's lead.

I don't think we'll have a call from PA until at least Monday.

They've been GOP friendly because they've come from rural areas. The vast majority of outstanding provisional are from urban centers, meaning they'll lean Biden.

Ok I feel better about PA now. That was a rollercoaster

An artificially manufactured one. Classic Atlas.

Kind of like the Arizona one.

[Asta]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyleKulinski/status/1324735367610798081
lol

The left is not going to get far if it keep believing in the delusion that a majority of voters are closet progressives who are just waiting to cast their ballots for Bernie Sanders or AOC.

- 63% support for a 15 Dollar minimum wage  
- 66% support healthcare for all
- 63% support tuition free universities

Those are vague and it isn't the expansion of the welfare state that turns voters off, it's the anti-market stuff (bad for business, overregulation, killing industries) and the smash the system stuff (defund, abolish, etc) that's utterly toxic. Plus positively identifying as socialist.

The left is a minority faction of a party that represents just over one half of the country, with some of them having particularly huge demands.
No wonder they end up disappointed.

Speaking as someone who opposes $15 minimum wage, I'm the first one to concede that it is fairly popular. Even red-leaning FL just passed the minimum wage amendment, 61-39.

$15 still isn't precluded from not being a big lift even if it is popular. You have folks like Manchin and Sinema and a few other moderate-to-conservative Dems that won't vote for $15 but might strongly consider a lower number.

I know. Where I disagree is that progressive ideas aren't exactly as unpopular as you postulate. It just happens to be that progressivism is extremely concentrated in already blue states, making an inefficient map for the purpose of electing progressive senators.

Democrats don't have an "idea" problem. They have a land disadvantage problem because non-college whites, Republican base, are far more efficiently spread out across the map.

[Rand]

[Storr]

Rita Hart has taken the lead in Iowa-02 according to DDHQ. It's only by 151 votes, and who knows if it will stand. But I'll take it!

[Middle-aged Europe]

AP/Fox still haven't called NV and projected Biden as the winner? Gosh, I'll be back in an hour.

[Real Texan Politics]

Which presidential term will Biden's be most like?

FDR 1933?

Truman 1949?

LBJ 1965?

Carter 1977?

HW 1989?

Clinton 1993?

Bush 2001?

Obama 2009?

I could see a similarity to Carter, though I will have to ask. Who was the last president to be elected without both parts of congress being the same party as the president?

[Illiniwek]

Are yall f#cking serious rn? Biden is the heavy heavy favorite to win PA.

No need to doom Doomers. Just make sure your champagne is chilling.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

AP/Fox still haven't called NV and projected Biden as the winner? Gosh, I'll be back in an hour.

Step one: Click "log out"

Step two: Don't come back until December

[It’s so Joever]

Which presidential term will Biden's be most like?

FDR 1933?

Truman 1949?

LBJ 1965?

Carter 1977?

HW 1989?

Clinton 1993?

Bush 2001?

Obama 2009?

Biden 2021.

Anyways the answer is probably Ford. Carter will come after Biden...and will get to end with a recession and a severe environmental crisis.
Fear/savor the year 2028, folks.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Which presidential term will Biden's be most like?

FDR 1933?

Truman 1949?

LBJ 1965?

Carter 1977?

HW 1989?

Clinton 1993?

Bush 2001?

Obama 2009?

I could see a similarity to Carter, though I will have to ask. Who was the last president to be elected without both parts of congress being the same party as the president?

HW Bush in 1988, though polarization was much lower then and Republicans could count on conservative Democrats to pass legislation. In practice, Biden faces a much more antagonistic Congress (if Republicans keep the Senate, which seems likely).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Are we seriously gonna go 48 hours+ with no new calls!?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyleKulinski/status/1324735367610798081
lol

The left is not going to get far if it keep believing in the delusion that a majority of voters are closet progressives who are just waiting to cast their ballots for Bernie Sanders or AOC.

- 63% support for a 15 Dollar minimum wage 
- 66% support healthcare for all
- 63% support tuition free universities

Those are vague and it isn't the expansion of the welfare state that turns voters off, it's the anti-market stuff (bad for business, overregulation, killing industries) and the smash the system stuff (defund, abolish, etc) that's utterly toxic. Plus positively identifying as socialist.

The left is a minority faction of a party that represents just over one half of the country, with some of them having particularly huge demands.
No wonder they end up disappointed.

Speaking as someone who opposes $15 minimum wage, I'm the first one to concede that it is fairly popular. Even red-leaning FL just passed the minimum wage amendment, 61-39.

$15 still isn't precluded from not being a big lift even if it is popular. You have folks like Manchin and Sinema and a few other moderate-to-conservative Dems that won't vote for $15 but might strongly consider a lower number.

I know. Where I disagree is that progressive ideas aren't exactly as unpopular as you postulate. It just happens to be that progressivism is extremely concentrated in already blue states, making an inefficient map for the purpose of electing progressive senators.

Democrats don't have an "idea" problem. They have a land disadvantage problem because non-college whites, Republican base, are far more efficiently spread out across the map.

I think the biggest issue for the left is the huge gulf between them and the wider public. They are a labartory for dreaming up ways to change society but carry such unrealistic assumptions too often when they think about how to realize them. A left that is "normal" is no longer really the left. It's got unique strengths and handicaps. But those handicaps are particularly prominent in regards to actually getting progressives elected.

[Xing]

Kind of crazy how Trump did better with non-white voters than any Republican nominee since 1960 and still lost!

Shocking, really.  Trump of all people.  Very probably the most racist president in modern times.

People have talked about this and beaten it to death and hurled plenty of insults at those who explain why and give reasons that are not always 100% positive or don't seem rational (without actually refuting any points made), and the fact that this happens explains exactly why this is so hard for people to grasp. Many people just don't understand other communities or cultures, and have to see that understanding other communities and cultures is knowing the good and the bad, and understanding that seemingly irrational behavior to one person is completely normal to another. There are people I know from Mexico and Taiwan who say that there are some things they just don't understand about America/Americans because they make absolutely no sense, and when I reflect on these things, I definitely think they have a point.

In the end, people of color supporting someone as racist as Trump in larger numbers than before makes about as much sense as rural working class white voters supporting someone as far removed from the working class in rural areas as Trump. It seems irrational, and you can definitely argue that it is to an extent (or criticize the logic behind the decision), but it does pay to understand why people see things differently.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Which presidential term will Biden's be most like?

FDR 1933?

Truman 1949?

LBJ 1965?

Carter 1977?

HW 1989?

Clinton 1993?

Bush 2001?

Obama 2009?

If the pattern holds, 1933.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

SCOTUS can't nor won't do anything. America would like to see them try, we've been through a civil war before.

I wouldn't lose sleep over them.