2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The batch of Allegheny ballots still is overwhelmingly Dem. So that provides Biden some cushion.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think 70% of Trump supporters are at Stage 1, with 30% at Stage 2 in the stages of grief.

Denial and Anger, for those who don't know.

Next is Bargaining, then Depression, then Acceptance, which only a small handful of Trump supporters will reach.

Greedo is moving along swimmingly now. He is at stage 3, bargaining.

[n1240]

Provisionals won't be great for Dems but they're likely disproportionately in high pop centers which will probably allow Biden to win provisionals in the end, but as of now Trump is doing very well among the small amount of provisional votes in rural counties.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Provisionals won't be great for Dems but they're likely disproportionately in high pop centers which will probably allow Biden to win provisionals in the end, but as of now Trump is doing very well among the small amount of provisional votes in rural counties.

The 40k still out in Philly is mostly provisionals, so yeah.

Still, at least there's a coherent explanation for the lack of a PA call.

[Virginiá]

Seems like Trump followed a trajectory similar to Obama 2012, in that he and his party performed better than expected, but only about half as good (give or take) as his original win. The problem for Trump is that his first "win" was a 2.1% plurality LOSS, and won the rust belt states that brought him over the edge by slim margins.

If you wanted to apply the same trend to Biden, 2024 wouldn't bode well, but he's probably not running again anyway, so who knows.

[Asta]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyleKulinski/status/1324735367610798081
lol

The left is not going to get far if it keep believing in the delusion that a majority of voters are closet progressives who are just waiting to cast their ballots for Bernie Sanders or AOC.

- 63% support for a 15 Dollar minimum wage 
- 66% support healthcare for all
- 63% support tuition free universities

Those are vague and it isn't the expansion of the welfare state that turns voters off, it's the anti-market stuff (bad for business, overregulation, killing industries) and the smash the system stuff (defund, abolish, etc) that's utterly toxic. Plus positively identifying as socialist.

The left is a minority faction of a party that represents just over one half of the country, with some of them having particularly huge demands.
No wonder they end up disappointed.

Speaking as someone who opposes $15 minimum wage, I'm the first one to concede that it is fairly popular. Even red-leaning FL just passed the minimum wage amendment, 61-39.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol, now I'm freaking out about PA all over again

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I would guess that we'll see the networks calls the race once the Allegheny vote comes in, which will put Biden's PA lead well over 0.5%.

[BlueSwan]

Why the hell are we only learning this about PA now?

[SevenEleven]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyleKulinski/status/1324735367610798081
lol

The left is not going to get far if it keep believing in the delusion that a majority of voters are closet progressives who are just waiting to cast their ballots for Bernie Sanders or AOC.

- 63% support for a 15 Dollar minimum wage 
- 66% support healthcare for all
- 63% support tuition free universities

Those are vague and it isn't the expansion of the welfare state that turns voters off, it's the anti-market stuff (bad for business, overregulation, killing industries) and the smash the system stuff (defund, abolish, etc) that's utterly toxic. Plus positively identifying as socialist.

The left is a minority faction of a party that represents just over one half of the country, with some of them having particularly huge demands.
No wonder they end up disappointed.

Speaking as someone who opposes $15 minimum wage, I'm the first one to concede that it is fairly popular. Even red-leaning FL just passed the minimum wage amendment, 61-39.

A higher minimum wage isn't exactly a dividing issue among Democrats, lol.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Are yall f#cking serious rn? Biden is the heavy heavy favorite to win PA.

[Horus]

I would guess that we'll see the networks calls the race once the Allegheny vote comes in, which will put Biden's PA lead well over 0.5%.

I doubt it, if provisionals are GOP friendly and if there really are 100,000 of them they could cut into if not completely erase Biden's lead.

I don't think we'll have a call from PA until at least Monday.

[politics_king]

Are yall f#cking serious rn? Biden is the heavy heavy favorite to win PA.

The doom is still strong with these ones. lol

[ProgressiveModerate]

Are yall f#cking serious rn? Biden is the heavy heavy favorite to win PA.

We're just very reactionary to this kind of stuff. A drop in confidence from 99.9% to 99.8% feels like a drop from 100% to 50%

[Panda Express]

GA-07 finally called for Bourdeaux. D Pickup. Good job this election, Georgia
.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyleKulinski/status/1324735367610798081
lol

The left is not going to get far if it keep believing in the delusion that a majority of voters are closet progressives who are just waiting to cast their ballots for Bernie Sanders or AOC.

- 63% support for a 15 Dollar minimum wage  
- 66% support healthcare for all
- 63% support tuition free universities

Those are vague and it isn't the expansion of the welfare state that turns voters off, it's the anti-market stuff (bad for business, overregulation, killing industries) and the smash the system stuff (defund, abolish, etc) that's utterly toxic. Plus positively identifying as socialist.

The left is a minority faction of a party that represents just over one half of the country, with some of them having particularly huge demands.
No wonder they end up disappointed.

Speaking as someone who opposes $15 minimum wage, I'm the first one to concede that it is fairly popular. Even red-leaning FL just passed the minimum wage amendment, 61-39.

$15 still isn't precluded from not being a big lift even if it is popular. You have folks like Manchin and Sinema and a few other moderate-to-conservative Dems that won't vote for $15 but might strongly consider a lower number.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Which presidential term will Biden's be most like?

FDR 1933?

Truman 1949?

LBJ 1965?

Carter 1977?

HW 1989?

Clinton 1993?

Bush 2001?

Obama 2009?

Either Clinton or Carter

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I would guess that we'll see the networks calls the race once the Allegheny vote comes in, which will put Biden's PA lead well over 0.5%.

I doubt it, if provisionals are GOP friendly and if there really are 100,000 of them they could cut into if not completely erase Biden's lead.

I don't think we'll have a call from PA until at least Monday.

Almost half of the provisionals are in Philly.

[BudgieForce]

I would guess that we'll see the networks calls the race once the Allegheny vote comes in, which will put Biden's PA lead well over 0.5%.

I doubt it, if provisionals are GOP friendly and if there really are 100,000 of them they could cut into if not completely erase Biden's lead.

I don't think we'll have a call from PA until at least Monday.

They've been GOP friendly because they've come from rural areas. The vast majority of outstanding provisional are from urban centers, meaning they'll lean Biden.

[Inmate Trump]

Are yall f#cking serious rn? Biden is the heavy heavy favorite to win PA.

The doom is still strong with these ones. lol

All they’re doing is discussing electoral implications.  There are reasons to be worried just as there reasons to be confident.  Don’t knock someone just because they’re rightfully worried.

EDIT: I’m still confident personally, but I’m just saying.  Unless someone is dooming to a Woodbury level of trolling, what’s the problem in expressing concern about something?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would guess that we'll see the networks calls the race once the Allegheny vote comes in, which will put Biden's PA lead well over 0.5%.

I doubt it, if provisionals are GOP friendly and if there really are 100,000 of them they could cut into if not completely erase Biden's lead.

I don't think we'll have a call from PA until at least Monday.

They've been GOP friendly because they've come from rural areas. The vast majority of outstanding provisional are from urban centers, meaning they'll lean Biden.

Ok I feel better about PA now. That was a rollercoaster

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I would guess that we'll see the networks calls the race once the Allegheny vote comes in, which will put Biden's PA lead well over 0.5%.

I doubt it, if provisionals are GOP friendly and if there really are 100,000 of them they could cut into if not completely erase Biden's lead.

I don't think we'll have a call from PA until at least Monday.

Almost half of the provisionals are in Philly.

what's the likeliest partisan split among Philly provisionals?

[BudgieForce]

I would guess that we'll see the networks calls the race once the Allegheny vote comes in, which will put Biden's PA lead well over 0.5%.

I doubt it, if provisionals are GOP friendly and if there really are 100,000 of them they could cut into if not completely erase Biden's lead.

I don't think we'll have a call from PA until at least Monday.

Almost half of the provisionals are in Philly.

what's the likeliest partisan split among Philly provisionals?

Respectfully, what do you think?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I would guess that we'll see the networks calls the race once the Allegheny vote comes in, which will put Biden's PA lead well over 0.5%.

I doubt it, if provisionals are GOP friendly and if there really are 100,000 of them they could cut into if not completely erase Biden's lead.

I don't think we'll have a call from PA until at least Monday.

Almost half of the provisionals are in Philly.

what's the likeliest partisan split among Philly provisionals?

Respectfully, what do you think?

I dunno, 85% Dem? (exactly in line with the city)

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Kind of crazy how Trump did better with non-white voters than any Republican nominee since 1960 and still lost!

Shocking, really.  Trump of all people.  Very probably the most racist president in modern times.

Post WWII, definitely. With only Nixon somewhat close at least Nixon didn't publicly express support for white suprematists.

Reagan?