2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[soundchaser]

Random thought: with Ohio, Florida, and probably North Carolina going for Trump, there will be hardly any active win streaks left, even if you allow for one miss. MI, WI, and PA will have win streaks going back to 2008. That's it.

Nevada?

Nevada voted for Clinton in 2016.

[DaleCooper]

Washington Post says that all of the outlets that use the same data that Fox and the Associated Press use have called Arizona for Biden. To my knowledge, none of them have retracted that, but correct me if I'm wrong.

[Inmate Trump]

Ok, I'm not a political pundit so I can say this. It's looking pretty bleak for Trump. I hadn't realized GA still had additional mal-in ballots that were received yesterday but not processed until now. Biden may win this by a larger margin than WI.

https://twitter.com/JustinGrayWSB/status/1324112940010770432?s=20
Current margin <60k

Interesting.  I thought Georgia didn't count ballots received after Election Day.  I'm probably mistaken I guess.

[forsythvoter]

Dekalb and Clayton are probably the big ones that could net Biden 50K votes. The mid-sized cities look like they could net Biden around 25K or so. The additoinal votes from Cobb, Gwinnett may add a few thousand more. Trump is up less than 60k.

Most of the counties in GA with votes out are heavily Biden but they're not Fulton/Gwinnett size. It's going to be tight.

Stunned

[Alben Barkley]

LOL

https://twitter.com/mj2v/status/1324124367027163138?s=20

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ok, I'm not a political pundit so I can say this. It's looking pretty bleak for Trump. I hadn't realized GA still allows mail-in ballots that are received through this Friday to count. Biden may win this by a larger margin than WI.

https://twitter.com/JustinGrayWSB/status/1324112940010770432?s=20
Current margin <60k

We don't allow absentee ballots to be received by Friday.  They must have been received by poll closing time yesterday.  But those that arrived (via mail or dropbox) in the last day or two are still being processed.

[compucomp]

Ok, I'm not a political pundit so I can say this. It's looking pretty bleak for Trump. I hadn't realized GA still had additional mal-in ballots that were received yesterday but not processed until now. Biden may win this by a larger margin than WI.

https://twitter.com/JustinGrayWSB/status/1324112940010770432?s=20
Current margin <60k

Interesting.  I thought Georgia didn't count ballots received after Election Day.  I'm probably mistaken I guess.

Key word is received yesterday I think? Not today?

[politics_king]

Ok, I'm not a political pundit so I can say this. It's looking pretty bleak for Trump. I hadn't realized GA still allows mail-in ballots that are received through this Friday to count. Biden may win this by a larger margin than WI.

https://twitter.com/JustinGrayWSB/status/1324112940010770432?s=20
Current margin <60k

We don't allow absentee ballots to be received by Friday.  They must have been received by poll closing time yesterday.  But those that arrived (via mail or dropbox) in the last day or two are still being processed.

That's only a good sign for Biden in my eyes.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Counting Arizona as uncalled, Trump has 3 paths:

PA, GA, NC, and AZ
PA, GA, NC, and NV
PA, GA, AZ, NV, and AK.

If Biden wins Georgia and Trump wins everything else it'll be a tie.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I would love to know which animal Ann Selzer sacrifices to the gods each election cycle in exchange for accurate polls.

[forsythvoter]

Yeah that was my bad.I mistook it for a different state so took down the post.

Ok, I'm not a political pundit so I can say this. It's looking pretty bleak for Trump. I hadn't realized GA still allows mail-in ballots that are received through this Friday to count. Biden may win this by a larger margin than WI.

https://twitter.com/JustinGrayWSB/status/1324112940010770432?s=20
Current margin <60k

We don't allow absentee ballots to be received by Friday.  They must have been received by poll closing time yesterday.  But those that arrived (via mail or dropbox) in the last day or two are still being processed.

[Ancestral Republican]

Kind of beautiful being able to look at blue Wisconsin and Michigan again. The 2016 map is so ugly.

Wisconsin is by no means definitely blue. A win by only 21,000 with many questions around absentee and mail in votes leaves plenty of room during the recount for this to swing back to Trump.

Given the corruption that has occurred down at the Detroit vote counting centre, this race will be going on for a while to come.

Never seen a Texan spell center that way before. Interesting.

I don't live in Texas - but I could not see a map symbol for a region outside of America (I don't live in America).

What country do you live in? We have numerous countries available.

[Crumpets]

Random thought: with Ohio, Florida, and probably North Carolina going for Trump, there will be hardly any active win streaks left, even if you allow for one miss. MI, WI, and PA will have win streaks going back to 2008. That's it.

Nevada?

I guess if you grant Nevada its one miss in 2016, it has a streak going back to 2004. If you switch to "always votes with the popular vote winner," though, there are a lot more options.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

GOP not coming to Trump's side...

https://twitter.com/IanSams/status/1324109632760123395

https://twitter.com/JNicholsonInDC/status/1324124024386015233

You just hate to see it

Also, for those looking at the CA margin, do so with caution.

I know it will change, but I love the irony that Biden is currently doing worse than Hillary in terms of the popular vote and yet appears to be on his way to victory.

More importantly, though, it probably means a lot of the outstanding vote is going to Biden generally, not just in the swing states.

What are you talking about?  Biden is outperforming Hillary in the NPV.

Barely, and it's unclear he will get the gigantic CA late ballot boost that Clinton got because CA is currently tightening with each update.  Trump's coalition is much less efficient this time.  Would be wild if Biden wins PA or AZ by more than 2.

With "every update"? CA has barely counted any significant votes since last night

Notably, Kern and El Dorado have flipped back to being Republican. I think that CA’s usual pattern might not be accurate this time because CA can now start to process mail-in/drop-off ballots before Election Day, so a lot of those super-Dem numbers we saw at the tail end of counting may have already been accounted for.

[politics_king]

I have to say that I'm glad we don't have the "Key Race Alert" graphic going off like last night on CNN, that was super annoying with that drop they play for it. Every 5 seconds... 'DUN DUNNN DUNNN"

[Angel of Death]

Random thought: with Ohio, Florida, and probably North Carolina going for Trump, there will be hardly any active win streaks left, even if you allow for one miss. MI, WI, and PA will have win streaks going back to 2008. That's it.

New Mexico will keep its streak of matching the winner of the national popular vote. Only once since it gained statehood has that not be the case, in 1976.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump is only at 66.5% of support in Forsyth county.

[Alben Barkley]

Random thought: with Ohio, Florida, and probably North Carolina going for Trump, there will be hardly any active win streaks left, even if you allow for one miss. MI, WI, and PA will have win streaks going back to 2008. That's it.

Nevada?

I guess if you grant Nevada its one miss in 2016, it has a streak going back to 2004. If you switch to "always votes with the popular vote winner," though, there are a lot more options.

If it's "always goes with the popular vote winner," then Colorado and Virginia each have a streak since 2004, New Mexico since 1980. That may be the longest.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump is only at 66.5% of support in Forsyth county.

I predicted 65-35.  Would love to see it come down to that number with the remaining absentees, if any.

[F. Joe Haydn]

Random thought: with Ohio, Florida, and probably North Carolina going for Trump, there will be hardly any active win streaks left, even if you allow for one miss. MI, WI, and PA will have win streaks going back to 2008. That's it.

Nevada?

I guess if you grant Nevada its one miss in 2016, it has a streak going back to 2004. If you switch to "always votes with the popular vote winner," though, there are a lot more options.

Nope, it goes all the way back to…1980.

[Hassan 2022]

Haley Stevens is probably going to win again in MI-11!

[Alben Barkley]

Random thought: with Ohio, Florida, and probably North Carolina going for Trump, there will be hardly any active win streaks left, even if you allow for one miss. MI, WI, and PA will have win streaks going back to 2008. That's it.

Nevada?

I guess if you grant Nevada its one miss in 2016, it has a streak going back to 2004. If you switch to "always votes with the popular vote winner," though, there are a lot more options.

Nope, it goes all the way back to…1980.

In 2000, it voted for W who did not win the popular vote. New Mexico does have a streak going back to 1980 though.

[forsythvoter]

Wow, the last batch of Forsyth votes actually went D. Assuming they are all mail-in votes at this point.

Trump is only at 66.5% of support in Forsyth county.

I predicted 65-35.  Would love to see it come down to that number with the remaining absentees, if any.

[Skill and Chance]

So apparently the last GA update was just the Chatham County (Savannah) absentees.  That means the 60K+ Fulton absentees and several thousand from DeKalb and Cobb are still out!

[MillennialModerate]

I have to say that I'm glad we don't have the "Key Race Alert" graphic going off like last night on CNN, that was super annoying with that drop they play for it. Every 5 seconds... 'DUN DUNNN DUNNN"

The MSNBC “projection” beat followed by music always makes my heart fludder