2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[politics_king]

Theory, and maybe some consolation for (likely) losing the Senate:

Just like we saw in the 2010 and 2014 midterms, a lot of the “Obama coalition” did not bother to turn out to the polls to vote for anyone but Obama. Generic Democrat suffered as a result. I think Trump really drives up turnout among WWC rurals, and they’ll vote for downballot Rs while they’re at it, but many don’t bother to show up for JUST John James or whoever the f—k as we saw in 2018. So maybe this gives us a shot if the GA senate seats both go to a run-off, and MAYBE even in 2022. We shall see.

2022 will be favorable to Democrats. Two retiring Senators in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin is up for re-election, Rand Paul is up for re-election and I think with the right candidate is vulnerable and you have Marco Rubio (wish it was Rick Scott) up for re-election where you could run someone like Val Demings possibly or her husband against him.

But you have to defend Maggie Hassan whose opponent could be the Governor who just cruised to reelection by idk 30 points.

Good point. Tim Scott is up for re-election too, maybe Jamie Harrison takes another shot at it. Missouri has Hawley up for re-election, so I'm sure the Democrats would love to take a shot at him. But 2022 the Democrats could flip the Senate. They still have a chance right now to get it done too.

[compucomp]

Theory, and maybe some consolation for (likely) losing the Senate:

Just like we saw in the 2010 and 2014 midterms, a lot of the “Obama coalition” did not bother to turn out to the polls to vote for anyone but Obama. Generic Democrat suffered as a result. I think Trump really drives up turnout among WWC rurals, and they’ll vote for downballot Rs while they’re at it, but many don’t bother to show up for JUST John James or whoever the f—k as we saw in 2018. So maybe this gives us a shot if the GA senate seats both go to a run-off, and MAYBE even in 2022. We shall see.

538 said a while ago that those who vote in the presidential years, but is not in the midterm tends to be Republicans leaning (working class whites) in the midwest, but Democratic leaning (minorities) in the sunbelt.

Let's not be so cavalier to declare that low propensity voting minorities lean Democratic in the Sunbelt. The Dems were celebrating when they were able to drive up turnout in Miami-Dade and the Rio Grande Valley in Texas...

[Calthrina950]

I hate to say this but I feel like how close this election ended up being plus how things went downballot probably ensures Biden doesn’t run for re-election if he comes out on top.

That and the fact he'll be 82.

After what happened, does anyone on here think Kamala Harris would win if she ran in 2024 to succeed Biden?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

What is taking states so long to count votes? I understand some are waiting for more ballots, but PA has only moved 8% today or something. I'm glad NV and AZ are going to, hopefully, finish or at least update us tonight

[Alben Barkley]

I actually think this wasn’t a bad night for Democrats to be honest. Maybe I will kick myself in the a** for saying that, but this is about what we expected.

And by the way, those of you who suddenly went from radical optimists to doomers amuse me.

No, Democrats aren’t in a great position, but I think they are favored in GA-Special and have a shot at Perdue’s seat.

Also, those of you who think the GOP won’t have Trump’s baggage...you obviously haven’t been paying attention to the man. He LOVES attention and will do/say anything for views. He will continue to act like an a** and may even smear the GOP establishment (because he feels like they “betrayed” him for not handing him the win)

Also, Biden will likely oversee the recovery from Covid and the economic slump.
I do think Dems face an uphill battle in 2022, but it’s not a complete wash.
Even if Biden doesn’t get anything done himself, he will still oversee a recovery from 2020 and will be falsely given credit for it (reminds me of Trump)

Weird, as you were mocking me for holding firm and NOT becoming a doomer.

[Hope For A New Era]

Theory, and maybe some consolation for (likely) losing the Senate:

Just like we saw in the 2010 and 2014 midterms, a lot of the “Obama coalition” did not bother to turn out to the polls to vote for anyone but Obama. Generic Democrat suffered as a result. I think Trump really drives up turnout among WWC rurals, and they’ll vote for downballot Rs while they’re at it, but many don’t bother to show up for JUST John James or whoever the f—k as we saw in 2018. So maybe this gives us a shot if the GA senate seats both go to a run-off, and MAYBE even in 2022. We shall see.

I've been thinking along the same lines. It seems that when Trump is on the ballot, you should just ignore the polls.

[Hassan 2022]

Theory, and maybe some consolation for (likely) losing the Senate:

Just like we saw in the 2010 and 2014 midterms, a lot of the “Obama coalition” did not bother to turn out to the polls to vote for anyone but Obama. Generic Democrat suffered as a result. I think Trump really drives up turnout among WWC rurals, and they’ll vote for downballot Rs while they’re at it, but many don’t bother to show up for JUST John James or whoever the f—k as we saw in 2018. So maybe this gives us a shot if the GA senate seats both go to a run-off, and MAYBE even in 2022. We shall see.

2022 will be favorable to Democrats. Two retiring Senators in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin is up for re-election, Rand Paul is up for re-election and I think with the right candidate is vulnerable and you have Marco Rubio (wish it was Rick Scott) up for re-election where you could run someone like Val Demings possibly or her husband against him.

But you have to defend Maggie Hassan whose opponent could be the Governor who just cruised to reelection by idk 30 points.

Hassan isn't Feltes. It'll be competitive but clearly NH is much more willing to elect Republican governors than Senators and House reps. And considering Hassan and Sununu are literally from the same town, Sununu's geographic advantage in the Seacoast is cut by Hassan's ties to the area. And Hassan beat an incumbent Republican in a year that was generally awful for Democrats.

[forsythvoter]

I ran an analysis of the oustanding PA ballots. If they go 80% Biden (which is actually below the support rates he's been receivng in most counties), he's on track to win PA by about 200K or about 51-48%. Actually will be the to the left of MI and WI.

PA looking good for Biden - honestly it might not even end up that close.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324108206801563650

I know I like it when my President talks to me in a way that looks like I'm installing malware.

LOLed

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Theory, and maybe some consolation for (likely) losing the Senate:

Just like we saw in the 2010 and 2014 midterms, a lot of the “Obama coalition” did not bother to turn out to the polls to vote for anyone but Obama. Generic Democrat suffered as a result. I think Trump really drives up turnout among WWC rurals, and they’ll vote for downballot Rs while they’re at it, but many don’t bother to show up for JUST John James or whoever the f—k as we saw in 2018. So maybe this gives us a shot if the GA senate seats both go to a run-off, and MAYBE even in 2022. We shall see.

I've been thinking along the same lines. It seems that when Trump is on the ballot, you should just ignore the polls.

Unfortunately we're going to have to wait until after 2024 is over to have real evidence for this, and that's barring the horrifying scenario where Trump is the Republican nominee again in 2024

[rhg2052]

After all of the discourse over Virginia last night, I'm only just now noticing that Biden flipped Stafford, Chesterfield, and Virginia Beach (!!). Home state killing it!

[Silent Hunter]

NV won't be updating until tomorrow morning now.

[politics_king]

I hate to say this but I feel like how close this election ended up being plus how things went downballot probably ensures Biden doesn’t run for re-election if he comes out on top.

That and the fact he'll be 82.

After what happened, does anyone on here think Kamala Harris would win if she ran in 2024 to succeed Biden?

Honestly I think she would have to do primaries. I'm certain the Progressive movement is going to run a lot of challengers to Democrat incumbents, the base is moving more toward a Progressive platform and after this result probably see an opening. I'm curious who would run against her from the Progressive side, maybe someone like Ro Khanna. It just depends how the 4 years is going. Kamala Harris though could do very well as VP and really embrace the Progressive movement to have a coalition. I also could totally see Biden running for a 2nd term if he's having a successful one.

[charcuterie]

I ran an analysis of the oustanding PA ballots. If they go 80% Biden (which is actually below the support rates he's been receivng in most counties), he's on track to win PA by about 200K or about 51-48%. Actually will be the to the left of MI and WI.

PA looking good for Biden - honestly it might not even end up that close.

If that were the case, PA loses tipping point status to likely either AZ, WI, or GA.

[MillennialModerate]

Biden is going to win Pennsylvania and he has a 50/50 1/100 chance at Georgia

*Fixed

[Rookie Yinzer]

The insane amounts of cash that Stacey Abrams gets if she runs in a rematch against Kemp will be the first resistance wine mom cash dump that won't be a waste of everyone's time.

She sounded the alarm bells for two years that GA was a Presidential battleground and it's about to be closer than NC and FL. Places where Biden and outside Democratic groups spent hundreds of millions of bucks for months.

Biden's margins in Metro Atlanta are insane not to mention the remaining vote out in the Democratic bastions downstate.

Give Stacey ALLLLLL the cash.

[Calthrina950]

I hate to say this but I feel like how close this election ended up being plus how things went downballot probably ensures Biden doesn’t run for re-election if he comes out on top.

That and the fact he'll be 82.

After what happened, does anyone on here think Kamala Harris would win if she ran in 2024 to succeed Biden?

Honestly I think she would have to do primaries. I'm certain the Progressive movement is going to run a lot of challengers to Democrat incumbents, the base is moving more toward a Progressive platform and after this result probably see an opening. I'm curious who would run against her from the Progressive side, maybe someone like Ro Khanna. It just depends how the 4 years is going. Kamala Harris though could do very well as VP and really embrace the Progressive movement to have a coalition. I also could totally see Biden running for a 2nd term if he's having a successful one.

With Republicans likely keeping control of the Senate, I'm not sure Biden's Presidency will be as successful as we might have hoped before yesterday.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

The insane amounts of cash that Stacey Abrams gets if she runs in a rematch against Kemp will be the first resistance wine mom cash dump that won't be a waste of everyone's time.

She sounded the alarm bells for two years that GA was a Presidential battleground and it's about to be closer than NC and FL. Places where Biden and outside Democratic groups spent hundreds of millions of bucks for months.

Biden's margins in Metro Atlanta are insane not to mention the remaining vote out in the Democratic bastions downstate.

Give Stacey ALLLLLL the cash.

Speaking of which, new Georgia #s at 6EST, right?

I want it to be the one which puts Joe over 270 so much.

[politics_king]

The insane amounts of cash that Stacey Abrams gets if she runs in a rematch against Kemp will be the first resistance wine mom cash dump that won't be a waste of everyone's time.

She sounded the alarm bells for two years that GA was a Presidential battleground and it's about to be closer than NC and FL. Places where Biden and outside Democratic groups spent hundreds of millions of bucks for months.

Biden's margins in Metro Atlanta are insane not to mention the remaining vote out in the Democratic bastions downstate.

Give Stacey ALLLLLL the cash.

Depending how the Special Elections go, say and I hope not that Loeffler wins, she has to run again in 2022. I would put Keisha Lance Bottoms against her in that Senate race.

[Pericles]

2022 as the backup option is not very reassuring because Democrats not only need to get lucky and have a net gain of seats but they also need to hold the House, so they can actually pass legislation. Supreme Court vacancies and stuff of course only need the Senate though. Let's first hope they can cobble together a majority in this election.

[Horus]

The insane amounts of cash that Stacey Abrams gets if she runs in a rematch against Kemp will be the first resistance wine mom cash dump that won't be a waste of everyone's time.

She sounded the alarm bells for two years that GA was a Presidential battleground and it's about to be closer than NC and FL. Places where Biden and outside Democratic groups spent hundreds of millions of bucks for months.

Biden's margins in Metro Atlanta are insane not to mention the remaining vote out in the Democratic bastions downstate.

Give Stacey ALLLLLL the cash.

Depending how the Special Elections go, say and I hope not that Loeffler wins, she has to run again in 2022. I would put Keisha Lance Bottoms against her in that Senate race.

If Warnock doesn't beat her in the special I have no doubt KLB would mop the floor with her in 2022. It wouldn't even be close.

[pppolitics]

The insane amounts of cash that Stacey Abrams gets if she runs in a rematch against Kemp will be the first resistance wine mom cash dump that won't be a waste of everyone's time.

She sounded the alarm bells for two years that GA was a Presidential battleground and it's about to be closer than NC and FL. Places where Biden and outside Democratic groups spent hundreds of millions of bucks for months.

Biden's margins in Metro Atlanta are insane not to mention the remaining vote out in the Democratic bastions downstate.

Give Stacey ALLLLLL the cash.

With hindsight, Biden should have taken the cash for FL and dump it all on GA.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Biden is going to win Pennsylvania and he has a 50/50 1/100

chance at Georgia

*Fixed

We get it, you don’t think Biden is going to win Georgia. I don’t know how anything you’re saying on the subject is going to be new to anyone since you’ve been going on about it all day.

[politics_king]

I hate to say this but I feel like how close this election ended up being plus how things went downballot probably ensures Biden doesn’t run for re-election if he comes out on top.

That and the fact he'll be 82.

After what happened, does anyone on here think Kamala Harris would win if she ran in 2024 to succeed Biden?

Honestly I think she would have to do primaries. I'm certain the Progressive movement is going to run a lot of challengers to Democrat incumbents, the base is moving more toward a Progressive platform and after this result probably see an opening. I'm curious who would run against her from the Progressive side, maybe someone like Ro Khanna. It just depends how the 4 years is going. Kamala Harris though could do very well as VP and really embrace the Progressive movement to have a coalition. I also could totally see Biden running for a 2nd term if he's having a successful one.

With Republicans likely keeping control of the Senate, I'm not sure Biden's Presidency will be as successful as we might have hoped before yesterday.

I won't totally dismiss it. Biden is known for his pragmatic deal-making and if Mitch just stonewalls, I don't think that's a great strategy for 2022.

[MasterJedi]

Biden is going to win Pennsylvania and he has a 50/50 1/100

chance at Georgia

*Fixed

Yeah, son, you already guaranteed Biden would lose PA. You're pulling a Trump here, it's sad...