2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[charcuterie]

Let's say that Biden ends up winning 2016 + MI/WI/PA + AZ + GA, would this still be considered an underwhelming victory?

Compared to expectations going into yesterday, absolutely. Not underwhelming in the sense it would be if it were sub-300, but still not that great compared to what most thought.

[Pulaski]

https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1324104075038711808?s=20

None of that is accurate.  Most are early ballots that were dropped off.

Second, the PA margin is 320k and there are more than that outstanding.

And as I said several times last night, literally no-one knows the exact number of ballots still to be counted in PA; mail-ins are still arriving. Trump’s gonna due to stop those being counted, of course, but as of right now they will be counted.

[rhg2052]

Let's say that Biden ends up winning 2016 + MI/WI/PA + AZ + GA, would this still be considered an underwhelming victory?

I think it's pretty similar to 2018, where it started out as underwhelming, and then as the results solidified it kinda shifted to more impressive.

[DrScholl]

Lmao

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Let's say that Biden ends up winning 2016 + MI/WI/PA + AZ + GA, would this still be considered an underwhelming victory?

It shouldn't be. That's a thoroughly middle-of-the-projections result.

[Kuumo]

Let's say that Biden ends up winning 2016 + MI/WI/PA + AZ + GA, would this still be considered an underwhelming victory?

Not for me. The day before the election, I was predicting that map but with NC instead of GA.

[Stockdale for Veep]

If Sleepy Joe pulls off the GA-PA death march comeback...

[Alben Barkley]

When Biden is president, he is going to have to bring the police and Black Lives Matter activists together to have a criminal justice bill done....because the divisions are still deep

Trump did better on NY than NJ....you want to know why? The NYPD.

Does not appear to me he did better in NJ, and considering how many likely D ballots are outstanding in NY, not there either.

[Silent Hunter]

Guys hold off until Arizona and Nevada is called by everyone before throwing a party. PA looks good as well

Not allowed to. We're under a Covid stay at home order from midnight UK time.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Why was Georgia the only state where the polls seem to be accurate?

Because most GA poll overestimates Democrats % of the white vote but also underestimates the non-white share. The reason it seems GA polling looks so good is that minorities have been turning out and Democrats have been doing better with white Georgians in 2016, 2018 and now 2020 although still not as high as in the polls.

[Podgy the Bear]

Continue to feel hopeful about GA.  Biden down 64000 with 94% of vote in.  Still a good chunk of DeKalb and Rockdale and Chatham counties remaining.

Biden has truly overperformed in suburban Atlanta--shockingly in Forsyth and Cherokee (still big for Trump but nevertheless showing the rapid changes in GA).

[TopShelfGoal]

If the election goes Biden's way and is declared even by Fox News, if Mitch and senate Republicans have backbone, they should tell Trump the game is over and he has to concede. But they're not Barry Goldwater and Howard Baker, maybe besides the usual suspects as Mitt. However, if Trump loses, Mitch owes nothing to him any longer. Maybe he is once doing the right thing.

Mitch won't endorse Trump trying to steal the election, not because of "doing the right thing" but from a purely self-interested point of view. If you are Mitch things are pretty good, you have an R majority in the SCOTUS, a structural advantage in the Senate and in the EC. There really is very little reason to blantently try to steal an election, because if you do that, all of that including the SCOTUS majority is in jeopardy. If you do that then the institutions are in trouble (why would you do that when the institutions as currently constructed favor you) and things like secession are on the table.

Mitch has used Trump like a (very tiny) condom, he used to him to ejaculate his SC majority, now he's basically done with him and ready to throw him in the garbage and move on unless he can legitimately win.

[Pericles]

Let's say that Biden ends up winning 2016 + MI/WI/PA + AZ + GA, would this still be considered an underwhelming victory?

It shouldn't be. That's a thoroughly middle-of-the-projections result.

It's also hard because TX and FL have so many electoral votes, so while not many states might actually deviate from expectations it makes the EC win look underwhelming.

[politics_king]

Biden on track in GA if the votes stay on trend. PA is also on trend, but Biden might run out of urban votes.

Looks like WI and MI were the red mirage and blue wave. 12 hours ago, both were heading in Trump's favour. Simply amazing result from mail-in ballots for Biden.

Just added NV.

I would say McDonald Trump's goose is cooked, even with Court appeals. These states were won by significant margins.

WI - Biden WINS by 20,500 (98% counted)

Of the remaining ~67,300 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 23,400 of them. (34.8%)

MI - Biden WINS by 67,200 (97% counted)

Of the remaining ~166,686 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 50,000 of them. (29.9%)

NV - Biden up by 7,647 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~194,200 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 93,300 of them. (48.0%)

GA - Biden down by 68,000 (94% counted)

Of the remaining ~306,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 187,000 of them. (61.1%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining~ 283,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 180,000 of them. (63.4%)

PA - Biden down by 313,000 (84% counted)

Of the remaining ~1,144,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 728,000 of them. (63.7%)

Biden simply needs to win NV to win the Presidency with 270 EC votes.

GA, NC and PA would simply be a bonus.

I feel very confident that Biden could end up with the clean sweep. That would be amazing comeback for the Biden/Harris campaign. Thank you once against for these figures, they are truly helpful.

[SLA8]

When Biden is president, he is going to have to bring the police and Black Lives Matter activists together to have a criminal justice bill done....because the divisions are still deep

Trump did better on NY than NJ....you want to know why? The NYPD.

No it has to do with the types of votes being counted (NY hasn't counted its mail in ballots yet, I believe)

[President Johnson]

Let's say that Biden ends up winning 2016 + MI/WI/PA + AZ + GA, would this still be considered an underwhelming victory?

Somewhat, but not a nailbaiter. I'm curious what the popular vote margin will be in the end. I guess similar to 2012.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324108206801563650

[Pulaski]

If the election goes Biden's way and is declared even by Fox News, if Mitch and senate Republicans have backbone, they should tell Trump the game is over and he has to concede. But they're not Barry Goldwater and Howard Baker, maybe besides the usual suspects as Mitt. However, if Trump loses, Mitch owes nothing to him any longer. Maybe he is once doing the right thing.

Mitch won't endorse Trump trying to steal the election, not because of "doing the right thing" but from a purely self-interested point of view. If you are Mitch things are pretty good, you have an R majority in the SCOTUS, a structural advantage in the Senate and in the EC. There really is very little reason to blantently try to steal an election, because if you do that, all of that including the SCOTUS majority is in jeopardy. If you do the institutions are in trouble (why would you do that when the institutions as currently constructed favor you) and things like secession are on the table.

Mitch has used Trump like a (very tiny) condom, he used to him to ejaculate his SC majority, now he's basically done with him and ready to throw him in the garbage and move on unless he can legitimately win.

Fantastic post, especially the analogy at the end.

What would be lovely is if Mitch conceded that Biden has won and subsequently feels the wrath of the MAGAs. I would really really love to see a huge division open up in the Republican Party here.

[GP270watch]

Is Biden going to win PA?

[Illiniwek]

Let's say that Biden ends up winning 2016 + MI/WI/PA + AZ + GA, would this still be considered an underwhelming victory?

If that is what Biden ends up with, I would categorize that as a "solid" Electoral College victory. Now, based upon losing the Senate and having a smaller majority in the House, I think that makes this an underwhelming victory as a whole. But I would be very very happy with the EC outcome above.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324108206801563650

 Can they just ban him already?

[Pulaski]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324108206801563650

Too late; I’ve already claimed all 538 electoral votes, as well as Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa and Neptune.

[HisGrace]

I and some other people were praising Fox earlier, but now they are talking about "strange things" happening at polling places in a bid to dispute the results.

[Calthrina950]

Is Biden going to win PA?

Yes, I believe so. I also think he will win both Nevada and Arizona, and he has a shot at Georgia as well.

[Stockdale for Veep]

If Biden does win, and Senate control comes down to GA, I wouldn't be shocked if Mitch calls up SCOTUS and demands they not to kill the ACA.