2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[n1240]

Another dump in Arizona. Biden's lead dropped to 16,952 votes

Trump 8567
Biden 4491
Total 13417

Pinal - 500 mail-in ballots, 1700 provs remaining in the county.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325563462433509376
I don't think he's appearing though.

What is that even?  That sounds like some D list conservamoron.  He's not even getting Tucker to push this?

Uh oh...

"During the 2020 election, Levin called on Republican-controlled state legislatures to disregard the results of the 2020 election and send electors to the Electoral College who would vote for Trump.[69]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Levin#2020_election

I keep telling you people this is what's going to happen in the end

And we keep telling you that it's not.  It's a right-wing fantasy.

Everything Trump's done after entering office was right wing fantasy until it became reality. I have absolutely no faith in these people to do the right thing as they've proven they simply don't care

And you believe the voters or the Democrats would just stand by and accept that? Seems more like the straw that broke the camel's back (or in that case, the United States).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another dump in Arizona. Biden's lead dropped to 16,952 votes

Trump 8567
Biden 4491
Total 13417

Pinal

That's the last big batch from an R county that can be expected.  I'll run the numbers with this.

[Gass3268]

Another dump in Arizona. Biden's lead dropped to 16,952 votes

Trump 8567
Biden 4491
Total 13417

Pinal - 500 mail-in ballots, 1700 provs remaining in the county.

This was the last mass number of ballots that would be super Trump.

[Alben Barkley]

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325563462433509376
I don't think he's appearing though.

What is that even?  That sounds like some D list conservamoron.  He's not even getting Tucker to push this?

Uh oh...

"During the 2020 election, Levin called on Republican-controlled state legislatures to disregard the results of the 2020 election and send electors to the Electoral College who would vote for Trump.[69]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Levin#2020_election

I keep telling you people this is what's going to happen in the end

And we keep telling you that it's not.  It's a right-wing fantasy.

Everything Trump's done after entering office was right wing fantasy until it became reality. I have absolutely no faith in these people to do the right thing as they've proven they simply don't care

But... they literally can't do it. Democratic state parties are choosing the electors in enough states that Trump couldn't do it even if they tried.

Come on, I thought you abandoned your doomer ways.

[Crumpets]

Wow, that Maricopa drop was brutal for whatever hopes Trump may have had in the state. He cannot afford to win these drops by 11 points, let alone lose them by that much.

It was a small batch.

Was there anything particularly unique about this latest batch that would distinguish its results from further Maricopa ballots? Genuine question.

About the Maricopa vote dump in an hour or so:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1325567242910593024

if these do not go majorly trump, will AZ be called?

These are "special ballots" too, so they probably lean towards Biden or at the very least won't give Trump the ~60% he needs.

https://twitter.com/MaricopaVote/status/1325105878547099648?s=20

All they have left in the non-provisional group are "different ballots." Braille, large print, overseas, and military ballots. As we saw from this batch, they will lean towards Biden. 

I can't wait for Trump and his supporters to come up with some half-baked reason why braille and large print ballots are bad and shouldn't be accepted. We all know it's coming.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325563462433509376
I don't think he's appearing though.

What is that even?  That sounds like some D list conservamoron.  He's not even getting Tucker to push this?

Uh oh...

"During the 2020 election, Levin called on Republican-controlled state legislatures to disregard the results of the 2020 election and send electors to the Electoral College who would vote for Trump.[69]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Levin#2020_election

I keep telling you people this is what's going to happen in the end

And we keep telling you that it's not.  It's a right-wing fantasy.

Everything Trump's done after entering office was right wing fantasy until it became reality. I have absolutely no faith in these people to do the right thing as they've proven they simply don't care

And you believe the voters or the Democrats would just stand by and accept that? Seems more like the straw that broke the camel's back (or in that case, the United States).

Let me tell you what would happen if they tried that BS: Republican legislatures would be sued immediately for violating their own state law, which clearly states how electors must be chosen. No court in the world is going to say they can just change election law after the fact because they didn't like the result.

But it doesn't matter because they're not even gonna try it. We've already heard as much, and it's pretty clear most of the GOP and their backers like Murdoch are ready to ditch him.

[LimoLiberal]

Biden will end with a nice thick margin in PA. Scranton Joe!

https://twitter.com/itsacoaster/status/1325552614474440704

[dspNY]

Another dump in Arizona. Biden's lead dropped to 16,952 votes

That was the last of the outstanding votes from Pinal County, which is red. There aren't that many left to count statewide, only 33,600 before provisionals are taken into account (and the provisionals will be Democratic leaning)

[GP270watch]

 Arizona has been really hard to follow vs PA and Georgia where we know the county and amounts remaining. Arizona votes remaining keeps shifting around.

 Also 18,000 provisional in PIMA seems like a really high figure.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The website has updated with the Pinal dump and better Maricopa numbers. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST Tuesday: 6253
Provisional ballots: 40602
Ballots ready for tabulation: 33642

Total: 80497

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.

With these assumptions, an estimated 69250 ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 11665 of them.  He currently trails by 16952, so would finish behind by 5287, up from 3755 before the Pinal dump.

It's over.  I'd expect networks to call it now.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

for the trumpistas iz now mariCOPEa county

[GeorgiaModerate]

At this point, it wouldn't surprise me to see Biden's margin exceed 10,000 in Arizona.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden will end with a nice thick margin in PA. Scranton Joe!

https://twitter.com/itsacoaster/status/1325552614474440704

Trump and Republicans sometimes mocked Biden for playing up his Scranton upbringing but I think it really did pay off.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325563462433509376
I don't think he's appearing though.

What is that even?  That sounds like some D list conservamoron.  He's not even getting Tucker to push this?

Uh oh...

"During the 2020 election, Levin called on Republican-controlled state legislatures to disregard the results of the 2020 election and send electors to the Electoral College who would vote for Trump.[69]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Levin#2020_election

I keep telling you people this is what's going to happen in the end

And we keep telling you that it's not.  It's a right-wing fantasy.

Everything Trump's done after entering office was right wing fantasy until it became reality. I have absolutely no faith in these people to do the right thing as they've proven they simply don't care

But... they literally can't do it. Democratic state parties are choosing the electors in enough states that Trump couldn't do it even if they tried.

Come on, I thought you abandoned your doomer ways.

You're confusing doomerism with my genuine fear as to what is going to come out of the next few months, given these people have proven they have no regard for basic democratic institutions. There's too much at stake and that these are even being suggested by people in power is downright terrifying. And don't forget Republicans hold the legislature in enough states that they could pull this off if they wanted to.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I hope we can save Adrian Fontes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The website has updated with a dump from Apache County. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST Tuesday: 6253
Provisional ballots: 40602
Ballots ready for tabulation: 30341

Total: 77196

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 65949 ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 12127 of them.  He currently trails by 16952, so would finish behind by 4825.

It's over and the networks could call it.

[BudgieForce]

The website has updated with a dump from Apache County. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST Tuesday: 6253
Provisional ballots: 40602
Ballots ready for tabulation: 30341

Total: 77196

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 65949 ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 12127 of them.  He currently trails by 16952, so would finish behind by 4825.

It's over and the networks could call it.

Thanks for putting in the effort with these posts. It's really helped me follow the Arizona count a lot better.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325563462433509376
I don't think he's appearing though.

What is that even?  That sounds like some D list conservamoron.  He's not even getting Tucker to push this?

Uh oh...

"During the 2020 election, Levin called on Republican-controlled state legislatures to disregard the results of the 2020 election and send electors to the Electoral College who would vote for Trump.[69]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Levin#2020_election

I keep telling you people this is what's going to happen in the end

And we keep telling you that it's not.  It's a right-wing fantasy.

Everything Trump's done after entering office was right wing fantasy until it became reality. I have absolutely no faith in these people to do the right thing as they've proven they simply don't care

But... they literally can't do it. Democratic state parties are choosing the electors in enough states that Trump couldn't do it even if they tried.

Come on, I thought you abandoned your doomer ways.

You're confusing doomerism with my genuine fear as to what is going to come out of the next few months, given these people have proven they have no regard for basic democratic institutions. There's too much at stake and that these are even being suggested by people in power is downright terrifying. And don't forget Republicans hold the legislature in enough states that they could pull this off if they wanted to.

Hammy, my friend, I have singing the same chorus as you for months. The best I can tell you is Pennsylvania is just too damned big a margin for even the bastards in the GOP legislature there to try pulling this stunt. It's just too big a hill for them to die on, in addition to also having to bring on board the legislators in Georgia and Arizona as well.

It's not that they have a shred of morality or respect for democracy, they just understand that they still control the Senate and can obstruct Biden with everything and anything that requires more than an executive order, they'll probably get some typical midterm gains in two years, and then come back in four years with a different Neo-authoritarian with establishment backing, and thus more to their palates.

TL;DR version, Pennsylvania is too big a margin, and would require the same actions in Arizona and Georgia to boot, in order for the Republican Party establishment to die on that Hill for Trump.

[GP270watch]

I need more votes, c'mon somebody... Anybody else releasing votes tonight?

I need a hit!

[Progressive Pessimist]

I need more votes, c'mon somebody... Anybody else releasing votes tonight?

I need a hit!

That or a call. For Arizona and/or Georgia to be called for Biden would be even more satisfying. I'm sure it will take awhile, but I can't get over how giddy I am at the prospect of Biden getting a 306 victory map against Trump.

[DaleCooper]

Since there's no recount unless it's within 200 votes, I expect Arizona to be called relatively soon.

[GP270watch]

 I want Arizona votes not a a call, several outlets already called Arizona and I think it was too early.