COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I wear a mask indoors now in most public places because most public places I go to now require it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just curious…

Any vaccinated people starting wearing masks again when going out?  Any choosing not to mask up?

I stopped after being fully vaccinated, but have started masking again in places that request it for all customers (the local Kroger and Walmart recently started doing this).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Just curious…

Any vaccinated people starting wearing masks again when going out?  Any choosing not to mask up?

I wear them pretty much all the time now because my college requires them in all facilities.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

https://twitter.com/business/status/1431139669970980866
Previous Covid Prevents Delta Infection Better Than Pfizer Shot

eople who recovered from a bout of Covid-19 during one of the earlier waves of the pandemic appear to have a lower risk of contracting the delta variant than those who got two doses of the vaccine from Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE.

The largest real-world analysis comparing natural immunity -- gained from an earlier infection -- to the protection provided by one of the most potent vaccines currently in use showed that reinfections were much less common. The paper from researchers in Israel contrasts with earlier studies, which showed that immunizations offered better protection than an earlier infection, though those studies were not of the delta variant.

The results are good news for patients who already successfully battled Covid-19, but show the challenge of relying exclusively on immunizations to move past the pandemic. People given both doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine were almost six-fold more likely to contract a delta infection and seven-fold more likely to have symptomatic disease than those who recovered.

“This analysis demonstrated that natural immunity affords longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization due to the delta variant,” the researchers said.

People given both doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine were almost six-fold more likely to contract a delta infection and seven-fold more likely to have symptomatic disease than those who recovered.


Anti-vaxxers, drinking de-wormers, are gonna be like: ooh ah, ooh ah, yeah, ooh ooh!


Disclaimer: it's a pre-print that hasn't been peer-reviewed yet.

The data was posted as a preprint article on medRxiv, and hasn’t yet been reviewed by other researchers.

Link to the study https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1.full.pdf

I think this finding, if true, has more interesting repercussions on whether boosters are actually necessary. If vaccines are highly effective against serious disease, and disease is effective at significantly boosting immunity, relying on very mild infections among the vaccinated might be better for the pandemic overall than hogging vaccines that could go to less-vaccinated developing countries.

I am double vaccinated. Had a fever two weeks ago for a day and some persistent sniffles and a throat tickle that lasted a week. Didn’t get tested but mostly isolated until symptoms went away. If that is what COVID looks like for a generally healthy person who is double-vaxxed, I hardly think boosters are needed for everyone. Maybe for the most vulnerable, but not for me. I’ll get one if that ever becomes the policy in British Columbia, but I’m not sure it should.

[Inmate Trump]

Just curious…

Any vaccinated people starting wearing masks again when going out?  Any choosing not to mask up?

I stopped after being fully vaccinated, but have started masking again in places that request it for all customers (the local Kroger and Walmart recently started doing this).

I was just wondering.

I’ve stopped wearing it at work, which no longer requires it.  But there’s been 4 fully vaccinated people in my office get sick recently so it worries me.  We all work in one big room, distancing isn’t possible.  Really not sure what I should do.

[Inmate Trump]

For those Moderna recipients like me…

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/570177-moderna-vaccine-creates-twice-as-many-antibodies-as-pfizer-research


A study showed it produces twice as many antibodies than Pfizer.

[Not Me, Us]

Just curious…

Any vaccinated people starting wearing masks again when going out?  Any choosing not to mask up?

I'm in Washington, DC for college currently and wear masks in all university buildings and indoors due to Mayor Bowser's mandate. However, I don't wear masks when I hang out inside the lounge and stuff with friends, since my school mandated the vaccine.

[Calthrina950]

Just curious…

Any vaccinated people starting wearing masks again when going out?  Any choosing not to mask up?

Well, since the beginning of this month, I've had to wear a mask again when working. I have to do so when riding the bus, and I have to wear a mask when I'm on campus, as it's required there. I've also resumed with wearing a mask in other public places, so as to have consistency. On another note, I'll highlight that the number of mask-wearing customers at my job has gone up in recent weeks. I would say ~35%, and probably even 40%, of customers are wearing them again.

[_.]

Prediction: The epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States is going to have shifted North to the state of Georgia within one week's time, fueled by numbers in the Southern part of the state.

Positivity rates and daily confirmed cases in that state have been rising in the state to dangerously high levels. In fact, for a few days now, they've been over 15% statewide, and in fact, in terms of "Date of Collection" (as opposed to "Date of Reporting", which is usually used), the positivity rate has been above 15% and consistently rising day-on-day for weeks now!

Daily confirmed cases in Georgia also have been regularly reaching 7,000 for a few days now (for Florida this number is 21K and falling). I expect roles to reverse as Georgia reaches 10K cases a day and Florida's number falls below 20K, with Florida's positivity rates continue their drop, and weekly confirmed case numbers in Florida shift downwards below 150K for the first time in weeks.

Expect Governor Kemp of Georgia to face increasing media scrutiny.

Watch out for high rates in Tennessee, Arizona, and North Carolina as well.
Also be on the lookout for a steady increase in Southern California.


I originally wrote this two days ago, I should've posted it then. Honestly, this seems to be coming more true with each passing day as Georgia's positivity rates have risen to nearly 20% at this point, and Georgia these days is regularly reporting 9K cases a day.

See this data from the CDC as of today:

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And this data from the Georgia Department of Health, contrasting with lowering positivity rates in Florida:

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[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Just curious…

Any vaccinated people starting wearing masks again when going out?  Any choosing not to mask up?

For a brief time when things were looking up, I went without, but now it is N-95 time any time I am indoors anywhere other than my own residence. Combined with Moderna vaccination, that is hopefully enough to avoid long COVID, and the odds are relatively good for that at least in the short term. I'll reconsider this policy if/when:
a) the Delta wave subsides a lot
b) and/or when new information/studies come out regarding vaccine efficacy against long COVID or the severity/treatability/longevity of long COVID
c) and/or if a future vaccine comes out that provides strong verified sterilizing immunity (a nasal one might at some point).

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Prediction: The epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States is going to have shifted North to the state of Georgia within one week's time, fueled by numbers in the Southern part of the state.

We're starting to get to the point again where case counts are sort of misleading for a combination of reasons. An indicator of that is the fact that the positivity rate is so high, especially in hotspots like Florida.

1) In some areas, it has gotten to the point where testing capacity is limited/delayed and you have to check multiple places to get a test.

2) Some people who think they may be sick are deliberately NOT getting tested, to avoid rules at school/work that if you test positive you have to quarantine. Kinda like how Trump said, if you don't test, we don't have cases...

3) Some people won't bother getting tested even if they are sick unless they have something more than a mild case.

[_.]

Prediction: The epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States is going to have shifted North to the state of Georgia within one week's time, fueled by numbers in the Southern part of the state.

We're starting to get to the point again where case counts are sort of misleading for a combination of reasons. An indicator of that is the fact that the positivity rate is so high, especially in hotspots like Florida.

1) In some areas, it has gotten to the point where testing capacity is limited/delayed and you have to check multiple places to get a test.

2) Some people who think they may be sick are deliberately NOT getting tested, to avoid rules at school/work that if you test positive you have to quarantine. Kinda like how Trump said, if you don't test, we don't have cases...

3) Some people won't bother getting tested even if they are sick unless they have something more than a mild case.

This would be a good counterargument a few weeks back, but it doesn't take away from my overall point, the pandemic is winding down in Florida and the epicenter is shifting farther North (a process which will no doubt repeat many times over the coming months with different states).

In fact, despite Florida increasing the amount of tests it took by 20% week-on-week last update, the number of confirmed cases only rose by 1%. This occurred as the statewide positivity rate (after having been at a plateau for several weeks) declined by 3%. Combine this with lowering COVID hospitalization numbers and death rates, and it's pretty clear that, no matter how many people were uncounted a few weeks earlier, that the pandemic is winding down in this state.

Georgia has not experienced this process yet and currently is seeing positivity rates and confirmed cases both on the rise. It is a reasonable assumption to make that Georgia is going to be the new Hotspot in the future.

This isn't even to mention that your points #2 and #3 are true the world over, not really Florida-specific. That's happening everywhere.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Is there info about nursing homes related deaths?

Well...

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article253524984.html
Florida nursing homes have low staff vaccination rates. Resident cases and deaths are rising.

The most dramatic COVID-19 case increases this summer have occurred in states with low rates of vaccinated workers, such as Florida, where an estimated 47.5% of nursing home staff were fully vaccinated as of Aug. 15 — lower than the national average of vaccinated staff per facility (61.1%) and the lowest of any state, according to the most recent data reported by the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services or CMS.

About 70,000 people live in a nursing home in Florida, where the rate of fully vaccinated residents per facility — 73.1% — is lower than every other state except Nevada, which reported a resident vaccination rate of 71.7% per nursing home as of Aug. 15. The national average of vaccinated residents per nursing home is 83.1%.

As Florida nursing homes lag behind their peers in resident and staff vaccination rates, the number and rate of new COVID cases for residents and staff of the state’s more than 700 nursing homes spiked in July and early August

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Damn, is it ever going to peak? Seems like it’s burning like an uncontrolled wildfire with no end in sight.

[_.]

Tennessee's another dark horse for being a COVID-19 epicenter over the coming weeks, competing with Georgia despite only having 65% of its population

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Be aware that for Tennessee to be at Florida levels during its Delta Wave peak, it'd only need 7K cases a day. Tennessee is looking to surpass that, though.

South Carolina's also hot on their tail in terms of cases, but its positivity rate's somewhat lower.


In the case of Ohio, it looks like Autumn's about to arrive and is just around the corner.
Mike DeWine won't be happy about this one.

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Could be a harbinger of bad days to come for the Midwest over the coming months.
Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin all are seeing slow but steady increases, both in terms of positivity and in confirmed cases. The Midwestern wave is coming and it'll be brutal, possibly even worse than the Southern one.

This isn't even to speak of the Interior Northwest, where Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas are looking to break all records per capita despite it not even being close to winter yet. They should be getting ready, though.

[Dan the Roman]

There is some evidence Delta plateaus and sticks around a lot longer than Alpha variants. Take a look at the UK which when you remove the Euros peak has basically been sitting around 30k cases a day for 11 weeks now. Missouri has plateaued around 2300 or so cases a day.

While Florida has peaked it is possible it flatlines at around say 13K or so cases a day, at which point due to higher death rates due to lower vaccinations it may never drop below 70 or so deaths a day through next spring.

Real question is whether everyone can live with that.

We also really need more data at some point re when natural immunity wears off.

[Fargobison]

This isn't even to speak of the Interior Northwest, where Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas are looking to break all records per capita despite it not even being close to winter yet. They should be getting ready, though.

We peaked in late November last year, the surge is already starting now. Seems like we are on pace for an October peak this wave.

This came out today as well from the major health care system in my area....

Updated numbers for Sanford Health. We have 40 people in Fargo hospitalized currently which is double from last week. This is expected to rise precipitously.  We are having to reduce surgeries by 30% to use these staff to care for the hospitalized.  Breakthrough cases for those vaccinated and hospitalized are elderly or otherwise immunosuppressed. 3 kids under 14 currently hospitalized.
This is preventable. It is heartbreaking because it’s preventable. Get the vaccine.

[TheReckoning]

Tennessee's another dark horse for being a COVID-19 epicenter over the coming weeks, competing with Georgia despite only having 65% of its population

Not for anyone reading ExtremeRepublican’s posts.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Two Top F.D.A. Vaccine Regulators Are Set to Depart During a Crucial Period
The announcement that Dr. Marion Gruber and Dr. Philip Krause will leave this fall comes as the agency conducts sensitive reviews of coronavirus vaccines for children and booster shots.

WASHINGTON — Two of the Food and Drug Administration’s top vaccine regulators will leave the agency this fall, a development that could disrupt its work on deciding whether to recommend coronavirus vaccines for children under 12 and booster shots for the general population.

Dr. Marion Gruber, the director of the F.D.A.’s vaccines office, will retire at the end of October, and her deputy, Dr. Philip Krause, will leave in November, according to an email that Dr. Peter Marks, the agency’s top vaccine regulator, sent to staff members on Tuesday morning. One reason is that Dr. Gruber and Dr. Krause were upset about the Biden administration’s recent announcement that adults should get a coronavirus booster vaccination eight months after they received their second shot, according to people familiar with their thinking.

Neither believed there was enough data to justify offering booster shots yet, the people said, and both viewed the announcement, amplified by President Biden, as pressure on the F.D.A. to quickly authorize them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/31/us/politics/fda-vaccine-regulators-booster-shots.html

Imagine the outrage, if "Two Top F.D.A. Vaccine Regulators" resigned because of pressure from Trump... Anti-science Drumpf.

I fear, it will be used by anti-vaxers.

[JGibson]

Just curious…

Any vaccinated people starting wearing masks again when going out?  Any choosing not to mask up?

I personally have worn a mask in all public settings, even after being fully vaxxed and the CDC temporarily relaxed the rules for the vaccinated. With the Delta Variant lurking and my state mandating masks indoors again, I still wear mine indoors.

[Hammy]

Just curious…

Any vaccinated people starting wearing masks again when going out?  Any choosing not to mask up?

I never stopped, but I also have severe anxiety so I don't know if I'm a good example.

There could be a one in ten billion chance of something and my brain will convince me that I'll be the one person it'll happen to so, I always reduce the risk as much as possible (even things not related to health) so I can go out without stressing.

[Dan the Roman]

Two Top F.D.A. Vaccine Regulators Are Set to Depart During a Crucial Period
The announcement that Dr. Marion Gruber and Dr. Philip Krause will leave this fall comes as the agency conducts sensitive reviews of coronavirus vaccines for children and booster shots.

WASHINGTON — Two of the Food and Drug Administration’s top vaccine regulators will leave the agency this fall, a development that could disrupt its work on deciding whether to recommend coronavirus vaccines for children under 12 and booster shots for the general population.

Dr. Marion Gruber, the director of the F.D.A.’s vaccines office, will retire at the end of October, and her deputy, Dr. Philip Krause, will leave in November, according to an email that Dr. Peter Marks, the agency’s top vaccine regulator, sent to staff members on Tuesday morning. One reason is that Dr. Gruber and Dr. Krause were upset about the Biden administration’s recent announcement that adults should get a coronavirus booster vaccination eight months after they received their second shot, according to people familiar with their thinking.

Neither believed there was enough data to justify offering booster shots yet, the people said, and both viewed the announcement, amplified by President Biden, as pressure on the F.D.A. to quickly authorize them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/31/us/politics/fda-vaccine-regulators-booster-shots.html

Imagine the outrage, if "Two Top F.D.A. Vaccine Regulators" resigned because of pressure from Trump... Anti-science Drumpf.

I fear, it will be used by anti-vaxers.

For anyone wondering why Biden's numbers are falling and looking for scapegoats in Afghan coverage, Covid has been

1. Screwing up JJ
2. Not pushing Under 12
3. Making up for #2 by trying to steamroll boosters(and we are pushing Pfizer for both when there is evidence Moderna may be a whole lot more effective and that a lot of Israel's problems may be due to some yet to be fully understood issue with Pfizer which might be a reason to look into it but oh well...)
4. Feuding with GOP governors ineffectively to no clear end while getting sucked into a war over masks which probably will not work as a public health measure due to compliance and proper usage concerns, while also distracting from vaccines
5. Failing to reciprocate with the EU and getting America travel-banned

[ProudModerate2]

Just curious…
Any vaccinated people starting wearing masks again when going out?  Any choosing not to mask up?

I never stopped, but I also have severe anxiety so I don't know if I'm a good example.

There could be a one in ten billion chance of something and my brain will convince me that I'll be the one person it'll happen to so, I always reduce the risk as much as possible (even things not related to health) so I can go out without stressing.

Are you wearing a mask that will considerably increase the chances of protecting you, like a N95 or better mask?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Just curious…

Any vaccinated people starting wearing masks again when going out?  Any choosing not to mask up?

Since my local 7-day average hit substantial, I have been wearing a mask whenever I go indoors in a public space, or when I'm not certain I can socially distance outdoors.

[Hammy]

Just curious…
Any vaccinated people starting wearing masks again when going out?  Any choosing not to mask up?

I never stopped, but I also have severe anxiety so I don't know if I'm a good example.

There could be a one in ten billion chance of something and my brain will convince me that I'll be the one person it'll happen to so, I always reduce the risk as much as possible (even things not related to health) so I can go out without stressing.

Are you wearing a mask that will considerably increase the chances of protecting you, like a N95 or better mask?

Yeah, again I take whatever the risk reduction available. If I have to go in any sort of healthcare setting (doctors office for example) I triple mask--N95, KN95, and an ear loop dust mask that helps keep the second one firmly in place.