COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Florida Man for Crime]

Deaths arent ticking up at all. The variant is infecting people but no one is getting very ill from it. Hospitalizations continue to fall.

Cases in the UK beginning to fall as well, I think this is the last gasp of the virus.

After all this time, still nobody understands that hospitalizations and deaths are lagging indicators. I swear, we could be on wave #7 and we'll still be getting "but deaths are not going up" comments. In fairness, that makes sense for vaccinated cases, but it completely neglects the fact that a large portion of the population is not vaccinated (especially in many states where cases are surging the most in the south).

[Calthrina950]

One other thing I've thought of, is that the return of the employee mask mandate means I don't have to wear one at home anymore. So I get some minor solace from that.

[Hammy]

Deaths arent ticking up at all. The variant is infecting people but no one is getting very ill from it. Hospitalizations continue to fall.

Cases in the UK beginning to fall as well, I think this is the last gasp of the virus.

After all this time, still nobody understands that hospitalizations and deaths are lagging indicators. I swear, we could be on wave #7 and we'll still be getting "but deaths are not going up" comments. In fairness, that makes sense for vaccinated cases, but it completely neglects the fact that a large portion of the population is not vaccinated (especially in many states where cases are surging the most in the south).

What I do is compare the rate the deaths are going up compared to how they were previous times we've reached certain caseload milestones. They are still about a third per number of cases compared to last time, I suspect a big part of it being many highest risk people have already been vaccinated.

[roxas11]

Deaths arent ticking up at all. The variant is infecting people but no one is getting very ill from it. Hospitalizations continue to fall.

Cases in the UK beginning to fall as well, I think this is the last gasp of the virus.

I hope you end up being right about all of this

I just dont wont to wake up one day and find out that now we all have to worry about the new Florida or Alabama variant...

[emailking]

One other thing I've thought of, is that the return of the employee mask mandate means I don't have to wear one at home anymore. So I get some minor solace from that.

I'd take that trade if I was in your situation lol.

[Calthrina950]

One other thing I've thought of, is that the return of the employee mask mandate means I don't have to wear one at home anymore. So I get some minor solace from that.

I'd take that trade if I was in your situation lol.

That's true. And I do have to keep in mind that I wore a mask at my job for over a year before the mandate was initially lifted, and I got used to it, so I will just have to adapt to it again.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1422555523644264453

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1422555523644264453

Good! Hopefully more cities and states follow suit.

[Donerail]

What timeline are we living in where I am thankful for Bill de Blasio's decisive national leadership? Feels weird

[Florida Man for Crime]

What I do is compare the rate the deaths are going up compared to how they were previous times we've reached certain caseload milestones. They are still about a third per number of cases compared to last time, I suspect a big part of it being many highest risk people have already been vaccinated.

That is a bad/unscientific way to compare. With the delta variant, if you are comparing based on a raw level # of cases, deaths will tend to lag behind more than with previous variants, because it is more transmissable. The slopes of epidemiological curves depend on the R value for a virus, and that has changed.

Simple hypothetical example with simplified math:

1) With previous variants, suppose it took 10 cases 1 week to turn into 100 cases

2) Whereas suppose with the new variant, it takes 5 cases 1 week

3) Suppose that some indicator (hospitalizations or deaths) lags by 1 week.

4) With the new variant, after 1 week when you have 100 cases, you will have half as many instances of the lagging indicator (hospitalizations or death) as in the previous case with the old variants, because the lagging indicator will be proportional to 5 rather than to 10.


Of course, let me hasten to add that I would not expect deaths to go as high as before (unless cases REALLY explode) because it is true that many of the most vulnerable people are already vaccinated (or deceased). However, that doesn't mean that deaths/hospitalizations are not going to behave as a lagging indicator and go up, it just means that the *level* at which they go up to should be lower relative to the number of cases than before (or at least would be if all cases were accurately and reliably tested for).

[soundchaser]

Cases dropped again in the U.K. today. Not by quite as much as the last few days, but still a promising sign.

[Not Me, Us]

Cases dropped again in the U.K. today. Not by quite as much as the last few days, but still a promising sign.

Do we know why this is happening? Did the UK re-implement a mask mandate or capacity restrictions?

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1422555523644264453

Democrats go full circle and support segregation.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1422555523644264453

Democrats go full circle and support segregation.

What a stupid statement.  If you want an analogy, it's more like a cover charge.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Cases dropped again in the U.K. today. Not by quite as much as the last few days, but still a promising sign.

Do we know why this is happening? Did the UK re-implement a mask mandate or capacity restrictions?

I think it's because the U.K. has blasted way past herd immunity.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1422555523644264453

Democrats go full circle and support segregation.

Because those who forego the needle implicitly are introduced to the tar brush? Don’t be a bitch.


OK. That was mean but you generally are a reasonable guy but that was wrong. I’d rather call you a bitch than report you for hyperbolically equating public health to racism.

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1422555523644264453

Democrats go full circle and support segregation.

Because those who forego the needle implicitly are introduced to the tar brush? Don’t be a bitch.


OK. That was mean but you generally are a reasonable guy but that was wrong. I’d rather call you a bitch than report you for hyperbolically equating public health to racism.

Do white liberals understand that a disproportionate number of Hispanics and blacks are unvaccinated? Are they deplorable "anti-vaxxers" who don't deserve to go into a restaurant? This policy is literally racist.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1422555523644264453

Democrats go full circle and support segregation.

Because those who forego the needle implicitly are introduced to the tar brush? Don’t be a bitch.


OK. That was mean but you generally are a reasonable guy but that was wrong. I’d rather call you a bitch than report you for hyperbolically equating public health to racism.

Do white liberals understand that a disproportionate number of Hispanics and blacks are unvaccinated? Are they deplorable "anti-vaxxers" who don't deserve to go into a restaurant? This policy is literally racist.

No, it's not.  It's a public health policy regardless of how you try to twist it.  Anyone of any race can get in simply by showing proof of vaccination.  If they choose not to get vaccinated, that's their decision but it is not a racist policy.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1422555523644264453

Democrats go full circle and support segregation.

Because those who forego the needle implicitly are introduced to the tar brush? Don’t be a bitch.


OK. That was mean but you generally are a reasonable guy but that was wrong. I’d rather call you a bitch than report you for hyperbolically equating public health to racism.

Do white liberals understand that a disproportionate number of Hispanics and blacks are unvaccinated? Are they deplorable "anti-vaxxers" who don't deserve to go into a restaurant? This policy is literally racist.

No, it's not.  It's a public health policy regardless of how you try to twist it.  Anyone of any race can get in simply by showing proof of vaccination.  If they choose not to get vaccinated, that's their decision but it is not a racist policy.

And vaccines are free.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1422555523644264453

Democrats go full circle and support segregation.

Because those who forego the needle implicitly are introduced to the tar brush? Don’t be a bitch.


OK. That was mean but you generally are a reasonable guy but that was wrong. I’d rather call you a bitch than report you for hyperbolically equating public health to racism.

Do white liberals understand that a disproportionate number of Hispanics and blacks are unvaccinated? Are they deplorable "anti-vaxxers" who don't deserve to go into a restaurant? This policy is literally racist.

No, it's not.  It's a public health policy regardless of how you try to twist it.  Anyone of any race can get in simply by showing proof of vaccination.  If they choose not to get vaccinated, that's their decision but it is not a racist policy.

And vaccines are free. And yes. I wouldn't mind Voter ID laws if IDs were free.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Maybe Democrats should accept a compromise requiring both a picture ID and proof of vaccination to vote?

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1422555523644264453

Democrats go full circle and support segregation.

Because those who forego the needle implicitly are introduced to the tar brush? Don’t be a bitch.


OK. That was mean but you generally are a reasonable guy but that was wrong. I’d rather call you a bitch than report you for hyperbolically equating public health to racism.

Do white liberals understand that a disproportionate number of Hispanics and blacks are unvaccinated? Are they deplorable "anti-vaxxers" who don't deserve to go into a restaurant? This policy is literally racist.

No, it's not.  It's a public health policy regardless of how you try to twist it.  Anyone of any race can get in simply by showing proof of vaccination.  If they choose not to get vaccinated, that's their decision but it is not a racist policy.

You guys on the left argue all the time that policies that have disproportionate outcomes racially are systemically racist. And I agree with you, to an extent. I don't see why you can't see this. Creating a class of people that don't have access to basic recreational activities is so immoral, especially over a virus that poses little risk for young, healthy people, in which vaccinated people are supposed to be protected. And Democrats argued months ago that voter ID laws were the "new Jim Crow", lol. This is far more authoritarian and dangerous than a voter ID law.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Maybe Democrats should accept a compromise requiring both a picture ID and proof of vaccination to vote?

This may surprise some people, as I am a Democrat and very pro-vaccine, but I oppose the proof of vaccination part of that.  I'm OK with a picture ID to vote as long as it's both free *and* easy and convenient to obtain (none of that stuff like having the nearest place to obtain an ID 50 miles away).  But there should be NO extraneous requirements of any type needed to vote; and as much as I support vaccination, it would be an extraneous requirement.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1422555523644264453

Democrats go full circle and support segregation.

Because those who forego the needle implicitly are introduced to the tar brush? Don’t be a bitch.


OK. That was mean but you generally are a reasonable guy but that was wrong. I’d rather call you a bitch than report you for hyperbolically equating public health to racism.

Do white liberals understand that a disproportionate number of Hispanics and blacks are unvaccinated? Are they deplorable "anti-vaxxers" who don't deserve to go into a restaurant? This policy is literally racist.

No, it's not.  It's a public health policy regardless of how you try to twist it.  Anyone of any race can get in simply by showing proof of vaccination.  If they choose not to get vaccinated, that's their decision but it is not a racist policy.

You guys on the left argue all the time that policies that have disproportionate outcomes racially are systemically racist. And I agree with you, to an extent. I don't see why you can't see this. Creating a class of people that don't have access to basic recreational activities is so immoral, especially over a virus that poses little risk for young, healthy people, in which vaccinated people are supposed to be protected. And Democrats argued months ago that voter ID laws were the "new Jim Crow", lol. This is far more authoritarian and dangerous than a voter ID law.

I'm not arguing against voter ID laws (see previous post), and you should stop trying to deflect the discussion into them.  And the vaccine policy is not authoritarian and dangerous.  I don't see why you can't see this.

[pppolitics]

Biden should roll out door-to-door vaccination campaigns in Democratic areas.