COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[It’s so Joever]

Good grief! I just don't get it.

Of course I think schools should offer online instruction, but I don't understand the fetish for moving everything online when some families want in-person classes. Online schooling is only good as a short-term solution, but it's been going on since March.

Sooner or later - like very soon - we've got to get our schools back open just like normal. When I first voted when I was 18, one of my priorities was education. There's no way an all-online system would have been tolerated back then, even if it had been invented.

I know there's some people who still have some fear, but this is something we as a community and nation are going to overcome.

What some idiots want without regard of how many people will die when the hospitals get overwhelmed should not dictate medical policy.

I'll say it here again, since some people just don't get it:

If we reopen everything because of some idiots whining, we are going to see a massive spike in cases, more hospitals getting overwhelmed, more people will die who might've otherwise been able to receive treatment because of this, and people who need medical attention for relatively minor to potentially life-threatening things that aren't covid, are thus more likely to die as well--not to mention permanent heart and lung damage for survivors

Anybody who continues to think this isn't the case or that the risk is worth it should be the first in line to volunteer to contract the virus, and sign a waiver stating they will not receive treatment.  If you are not willing to do this, then quit whining about online schooling or mask rules.

Hey, I wish I had equitable online schooling at all.
People complaining about it are ***holes.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1292886763690745859

https://twitter.com/wingoz/status/1296486281405501440

[It’s so Joever]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/08/20/sen-bill-cassidy-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-399465

[GP270watch]

Unemployment claims ticked back up over the one-million mark:

https://mobile.twitter.com/USDOL/status/1296424389370679298

 Wasn't somebody in this thread arguing that the end of supplemental unemployment insurance meant everybody was going to rush out and get a job?

 When will people learn?

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 8/20 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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8/9: <Sunday>

• Cases: 5,199,444 (+49,721 | ΔW Change: ↑0.79% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)
• Deaths: 165,617 (+547 | ΔW Change: ↑17.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)

8/10: <M>

• Cases: 5,251,446 (+52,002 | ΔW Change: ↑7.16% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)
• Deaths: 166,192 (+575 | ΔW Change: ↑1.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

8/11: <T>

• Cases: 5,305,957 (+54,511 | ΔW Change: ↓3.08% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 167,749 (+1,557 | ΔW Change: ↑14.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

8/12: <W>

• Cases: 5,360,302 (+54,345 | ΔW Change: ↓1.46% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 169,131 (+1,382 | ΔW Change: ↑5.42% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)

8/13: <Þ>

• Cases: 5,415,666 (+55,364 | ΔW Change: ↓5.54% | Σ Increase: ↑1.03%)
• Deaths: 170,415 (+1,284 | ΔW Change: ↑6.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.76%)

8/14: <F>

• Cases: 5,476,266 (+60,600 | ΔW Change: ↓4.33% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 171,535 (+1,120 | ΔW Change: ↓13.18% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)

8/15: <S>

• Cases: 5,529,789 (+53,523 | ΔW Change: ↓1.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.98%)
• Deaths: 172,606 (+1,071 | ΔW Change: ↑9.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

8/16: <Sunday>

• Cases: 5,566,632 (+36,843 | ΔW Change: ↓25.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.67%)
• Deaths: 173,128 (+522 | ΔW Change: ↓4.57% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

8/17: <M>

• Cases: 5,612,027 (+45,395 | ΔW Change: ↓12.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 173,716 (+588 | ΔW Change: ↑2.26% | Σ Increase: ↑0.34%)

8/18: <T>

• Cases: 5,655,974 (+43,947 | ΔW Change: ↓19.38% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 175,074 (+1,358 | ΔW Change: ↓12.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

8/19 (Yesterday): <W>

• Cases: 5,700,931 (+44,957 | ΔW Change: ↓17.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)
• Deaths: 176,337 (+1,263 | ΔW Change: ↓8.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

8/20 (Today): <Þ>

• Cases: 5,746,272 (+45,341 | ΔW Change: ↓18.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)
• Deaths: 177,424 (+1,087 | ΔW Change: ↓2.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

[Koharu]

Apparently the federal government is still trying to fight the states for supplies.

https://twitter.com/WPR/status/1296580286940172289?s=20

For those unaware, Tommy Thompson was the (Republican) governor of Wisconsin from 1987-2001. He was also Secretary of HHS under W.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I just read that Oxford is starting a phase 3 trial of their vaccine for 1500 subjects in Arizona over the next few weeks.  

I'm sure this sounded like a great plan a month or two ago when they were deciding on trial locations.  Unfortunately, Arizona now has a new case rate well below the national average.  I guess Brazil is still promising!

[It’s so Joever]

I just read that Oxford is starting a phase 3 trial of their vaccine for 1500 subjects in Arizona over the next few weeks.  

I'm sure this sounded like a great plan a month or two ago when they were deciding on trial locations.  Unfortunately, Arizona now has a new case rate well below the national average.  I guess Brazil is still promising!

They should do a state that hasn’t had a big wave yet, but has a virus-downplaying Governor. I would suggest Iowa and Nebraska. They have large enough cities for an outbreak, unlike some other states which fit this criteria.

[It’s so Joever]

Alright, today was my first day in-person in a high school of 3.7~k students (but only 3/8ths were here today due to the hybrid model) I can share some observations:

Classes
The classrooms were pretty well spaced out. The furniture was moved around and students were mostly distanced.

Hallways
This is probably the second worst part. The hallways and even the outdoor pathways were pretty crowded (not Paulding HS levels, but still crowded enough for a virus to easily spread)

Masks
This one is pretty positive. All but one student had a mask covering nose and mouth (one idiot decided to not cover either), I guess the suspension of about 150 entitled senior girl-brats was enough to make people fall in line.
The break down of type was about:
55% Cloth
35% Surgical
9% KN95
1% N95

Hand washing
Encouraged, but not enforced. Teachers at least had large provisions of hand sanitizer (that smelled exactly like Tequila) although a lot of students brought their own.

Lunch breaks
The stupidest idea on the school’s part. Anyone is allowed to go anywhere during the breaks and no mask wearing/social distancing is enforced. I get that they want to keep an “open campus” but this is the Achilles’ Heel of the plan.

Education
Eh, I honestly do better with online learning because I am a very visual learner and am pretty independent with my studying. I can see the appeal for other types of students.

I didn’t take many good photos and I’m pretty sure I’m not allowed to post them. I think overall it was okay, but there will be an outbreak by October 1st.

[It’s so Joever]

Update: I should add, teachers have honestly been mixed: Some have been very proactive and have had everyone sanitize before entering, others are doing the minimum. The only bad one was my English teacher who said and I quote,”Yeah, if you want to take your masks off to ventilate that’s okay. Just a few seconds, you can slide it off your nose a bit.”
Luckily most students weren’t that f**king stupid.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 8/21 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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8/9: <Sunday>

• Cases: 5,199,444 (+49,721 | ΔW Change: ↑0.79% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)
• Deaths: 165,617 (+547 | ΔW Change: ↑17.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)

8/10: <M>

• Cases: 5,251,446 (+52,002 | ΔW Change: ↑7.16% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)
• Deaths: 166,192 (+575 | ΔW Change: ↑1.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

8/11: <T>

• Cases: 5,305,957 (+54,511 | ΔW Change: ↓3.08% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 167,749 (+1,557 | ΔW Change: ↑14.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

8/12: <W>

• Cases: 5,360,302 (+54,345 | ΔW Change: ↓1.46% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 169,131 (+1,382 | ΔW Change: ↑5.42% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)

8/13: <Þ>

• Cases: 5,415,666 (+55,364 | ΔW Change: ↓5.54% | Σ Increase: ↑1.03%)
• Deaths: 170,415 (+1,284 | ΔW Change: ↑6.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.76%)

8/14: <F>

• Cases: 5,476,266 (+60,600 | ΔW Change: ↓4.33% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 171,535 (+1,120 | ΔW Change: ↓13.18% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)

8/15: <S>

• Cases: 5,529,789 (+53,523 | ΔW Change: ↓1.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.98%)
• Deaths: 172,606 (+1,071 | ΔW Change: ↑9.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

8/16: <Sunday>

• Cases: 5,566,632 (+36,843 | ΔW Change: ↓25.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.67%)
• Deaths: 173,128 (+522 | ΔW Change: ↓4.57% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

8/17: <M>

• Cases: 5,612,027 (+45,395 | ΔW Change: ↓12.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 173,716 (+588 | ΔW Change: ↑2.26% | Σ Increase: ↑0.34%)

8/18: <T>

• Cases: 5,655,974 (+43,947 | ΔW Change: ↓19.38% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 175,074 (+1,358 | ΔW Change: ↓12.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

8/19: <W>

• Cases: 5,700,931 (+44,957 | ΔW Change: ↓17.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)
• Deaths: 176,337 (+1,263 | ΔW Change: ↓8.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

8/20 (Yesterday): <Þ>

• Cases: 5,746,272 (+45,341 | ΔW Change: ↓18.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)
• Deaths: 177,424 (+1,087 | ΔW Change: ↓2.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

8/21 (Today): <F>

• Cases: 5,796,727 (+50,455 | ΔW Change: ↓16.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.88%)
• Deaths: 179,200 (+1,776 | ΔW Change: ↑58.57% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

A less disastrous week than last week, reasonable to think reporting lags were a significant part of what had looked like the start of a plateau then.

That being said, 45-50K new cases most days this week is still a disaster. That's still more than twice what we were seeing in late spring, and the daily death toll is not relenting yet.

[emailking]

Definitely looks like we've more than likely peaked (for now) so that's good at least.

Unfortunately these death tolls are still pretty catastrophic.

[jamestroll]

Not sure why people on Atlas and Aad and some discord servers act like I am Brian Kemp or Ron DeSantis on being anti-lock down.

I am pro-mask.

I am pro-social distancing.

I oppose any state moving into new phases. And in fact would encourage most states to stay at phase 2.

I support rotational lockdowns to stop the virus from surging out of control.

What more do people want?

COVID 19 is not going away but we can still live with it and economically function!

[GeorgiaModerate]

University of Georgia health faculty: Campus is in "grave danger".

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

No more people using their 96 year old great grandmother card as an excuse to act on a moral high ground. Nursing homes played a huge role in allowing this spiral out of control. Their business practices are immoral and "for profit" nursing homes are immoral. I can not believe there has not been more discussion on nursing home reform!

Reform would be extremely expensive. That's why it hasn't happened. The greatest expense of nursing homes is labor, and it isn't paid particularly well.

[YE]

https://twitter.com/yascha_mounk/status/1297226437905260545?s=21

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/yascha_mounk/status/1297226437905260545?s=21

They shouldn’t have used the word “Draconian” alone. Expulsion at least is necessary, probably more.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Any punishment by colleges for social gatherings is completely unacceptable, especially the threat of expulsion. It is their faults, not the students' faults.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think the key for college campus is much more to establish as much of a bubble around the campus rather than to prevent any contact within the bubble.

Classes at my university start on Monday.  We are testing all students as they arrive on campus.  So far, we’ve tested about 4,000, and gotten only 5 positives (0.1% positivity rate).  So I am optimistic.

[KaiserDave]

Any punishment by colleges for social gatherings is completely unacceptable, especially the threat of expulsion. It is their faults, not the students' faults.

I agree in large part. They shouldn't have opened like this to begin with. This was an inevitable consequence.

I just don't agree that any punishment is unacceptable

[emailking]

If it takes place off campus and is an otherwise legal gathering I don't think the universities should have any basis to do anything. If it's on campus or violates government mass gathering limits then yeah.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 8/22 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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8/9: <Sunday>

• Cases: 5,199,444 (+49,721 | ΔW Change: ↑0.79% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)
• Deaths: 165,617 (+547 | ΔW Change: ↑17.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)

8/10: <M>

• Cases: 5,251,446 (+52,002 | ΔW Change: ↑7.16% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)
• Deaths: 166,192 (+575 | ΔW Change: ↑1.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

8/11: <T>

• Cases: 5,305,957 (+54,511 | ΔW Change: ↓3.08% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 167,749 (+1,557 | ΔW Change: ↑14.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

8/12: <W>

• Cases: 5,360,302 (+54,345 | ΔW Change: ↓1.46% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 169,131 (+1,382 | ΔW Change: ↑5.42% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)

8/13: <Þ>

• Cases: 5,415,666 (+55,364 | ΔW Change: ↓5.54% | Σ Increase: ↑1.03%)
• Deaths: 170,415 (+1,284 | ΔW Change: ↑6.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.76%)

8/14: <F>

• Cases: 5,476,266 (+60,600 | ΔW Change: ↓4.33% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 171,535 (+1,120 | ΔW Change: ↓13.18% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)

8/15: <S>

• Cases: 5,529,789 (+53,523 | ΔW Change: ↓1.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.98%)
• Deaths: 172,606 (+1,071 | ΔW Change: ↑9.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

8/16: <Sunday>

• Cases: 5,566,632 (+36,843 | ΔW Change: ↓25.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.67%)
• Deaths: 173,128 (+522 | ΔW Change: ↓4.57% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

8/17: <M>

• Cases: 5,612,027 (+45,395 | ΔW Change: ↓12.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 173,716 (+588 | ΔW Change: ↑2.26% | Σ Increase: ↑0.34%)

8/18: <T>

• Cases: 5,655,974 (+43,947 | ΔW Change: ↓19.38% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 175,074 (+1,358 | ΔW Change: ↓12.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

8/19: <W>

• Cases: 5,700,931 (+44,957 | ΔW Change: ↓17.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)
• Deaths: 176,337 (+1,263 | ΔW Change: ↓8.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

8/20: <Þ>

• Cases: 5,746,272 (+45,341 | ΔW Change: ↓18.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)
• Deaths: 177,424 (+1,087 | ΔW Change: ↓2.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

8/21 (Yesterday): <F>

• Cases: 5,796,727 (+50,455 | ΔW Change: ↓16.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.88%)
• Deaths: 179,200 (+1,776 | ΔW Change: ↑58.57% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)

8/22 (Today): <S>

• Cases: 5,841,428 (+44,701| ΔW Change: ↓20.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 180,174 (+974 | ΔW Change: ↓9.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Humans are social animals. Not just college students, but people of any age. Colleges have no business punishing students for attending parties off campus.

I would have been horrified at these parties back in April. But not now. People need normal social interaction after being isolated for 5 months.

[Pericles]

Humans are social animals. Not just college students, but people of any age. Colleges have no business punishing students for attending parties off campus.

I would have been horrified at these parties back in April. But not now. People need normal social interaction after being isolated for 5 months.

"$1,000+ deaths a day is an acceptable price to pay for normal life" That's the choice you are making.