COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Bandit3 the Worker]

For what it's worth, I'm 47. And yes, I'd get the vaccine if it was offered to me.

I believe very strongly in science, and I'm confident a safe vaccine will be available.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

https://mobile.twitter.com/6abc/status/1293891405736271873

Who knew that ending the $600 unemployment subsidy would mean folks would go out and apply for work?

Huh?  Lower unemployment claims mean that fewer people got laid off, not that more are looking for work.

It's the number first-time unemployment claims (not "layoffs" per se), and continuing claims were also down by 600,000.  The total number of Americans claiming unemployment fell by more than 3 million to 28.26 million for the week ending July 25.  The data suggests enhanced benefits provide an incentive for people to stay away from returning to work. 

Jobs would have to be opened, first. Which anecdotally, I know isn't happening. Which is fine because I already have a job but it would be great to have something lined up for tomorrow.

Also anecdotally, I know of several small retail businesses/restaurants who have been advertising positions and not receiving any applications.  I've even seen national reporting suggesting such.

You'd have to be really desperate for the money to take a public-facing job in retail or restaurants right now considering the increased personal risk, especially in Mississippi which has the third highest per capita rate  in the U.S. right now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Update from Cherokee County after two weeks of school:

As this second week of school comes to a close, the district is reporting 80 confirmed cases of the coronavirus and 1,106 students and staffers quarantined as a result. Last week ended with 28 cases and 563 under quarantine in the district of about 40,000 students.

The number of infected students more than tripled, to 66 from 20. Five staffers tested positive this week compared with one last week, and nine teachers compared with seven last week.

https://www.ajc.com/education/weekly-covid-19-count-nearly-triples-in-cherokee-county-schools/XYXNYDB4ZZGXTDT5Y7ASYCNNPA/

[Hammy]

White House warns of ‘widespread and expanding’ COVID-19 spread in Georgia

President Trump’s coronavirus task force warns that Georgia continues to see “widespread and expanding community viral spread” and that the state’s current policies aren’t enough to curtail COVID-19.

The task force “strongly recommends” Georgia adopt a statewide mandate that citizens wear masks, joining a chorus of public health officials, Democrats and others who have warned that Gov. Brian Kemp’s refusal to order face coverings has plunged the state into deeper crisis and will prolong recovery.

You've really screwed this up when Trump's admin is calling you out on it.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 8/14 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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8/2: <Sunday>

• Cases: 4,813,647 (+49,329 | ΔW Change: ↓13.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 158,365 (+467 | ΔW Change: ↑12.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

8/3: <M>

• Cases: 4,862,174 (+48,527 | ΔW Change: ↓21.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.01%)
• Deaths: 158,929 (+564 | ΔW Change: ↓5.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

8/4: <T>

• Cases: 4,918,420 (+56,246 | ΔW Change: ↓13.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.16%)
• Deaths: 160,290 (+1,361 | ΔW Change: ↓27.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)

8/5: <W>

• Cases: 4,973,568 (+55,148 | ΔW Change: ↓20.87% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 161,601 (+1,311 | ΔW Change: ↓13.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)

8/6: <Þ>

• Cases: 5,032,179 (+58,611 | ΔW Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 162,804 (+1,203 | ΔW Change: ↓16.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)

8/7: <F>

• Cases: 5,095,524 (+63,345 | ΔW Change: ↓10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.26%)
• Deaths: 164,094 (+1,290 | ΔW Change: ↓11.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)

8/8: <S>

• Cases: 5,149,723 (+54,199 | ΔW Change: ↓8.80% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)
• Deaths: 165,070 (+976 | ΔW Change: ↓15.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)

8/9: <Sunday>

• Cases: 5,199,444 (+49,721 | ΔW Change: ↑0.79% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)
• Deaths: 165,617 (+547 | ΔW Change: ↑17.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)

8/10: <M>

• Cases: 5,251,446 (+52,002 | ΔW Change: ↑7.16% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)
• Deaths: 166,192 (+575 | ΔW Change: ↑1.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

8/11: <T>

• Cases: 5,305,957 (+54,511 | ΔW Change: ↓3.08% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 167,749 (+1,557 | ΔW Change: ↑14.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

8/12: <W>

• Cases: 5,360,302 (+54,345 | ΔW Change: ↓1.46% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 169,131 (+1,382 | ΔW Change: ↑5.42% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)

8/13 (Yesterday): <Þ>

• Cases: 5,415,666 (+55,364 | ΔW Change: ↓5.54% | Σ Increase: ↑1.03%)
• Deaths: 170,415 (+1,284 | ΔW Change: ↑6.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.76%)

8/14 (Today): <F>

• Cases: 5,476,266 (+60,600 | ΔW Change: ↓4.33% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 171,535 (+1,120 | ΔW Change: ↓13.18% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Maybe it's a bit too early to say this with certainty, but the last week really seems consistent with the idea that we are - once again - plateauing at a disastrously high number of daily cases.

[Dr. Arch]

Maybe it's a bit too early to say this with certainty, but the last week really seems consistent with the idea that we are - once again - plateauing at a disastrously high number of daily cases.

Sounds about right. We're about a week away from another spike from school "re-openings."

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Maybe it's a bit too early to say this with certainty, but the last week really seems consistent with the idea that we are - once again - plateauing at a disastrously high number of daily cases.

Cases this week didn’t decline nearly as much as last week because there were a lot of testing and reporting problems last week that suppressed case numbers.  

Besides the weather related problems in FL, there were apparently administrative screw ups in CA that prevented the processing of ~300k tests dating back several weeks.  This testing backlog was being gradually processed this week, which is why case counts in CA shot up so suddenly.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Maybe it's a bit too early to say this with certainty, but the last week really seems consistent with the idea that we are - once again - plateauing at a disastrously high number of daily cases.

Cases this week didn’t decline nearly as much as last week because there were a lot of testing and reporting problems last week that suppressed case numbers.  

Besides the weather related problems in FL, there were apparently administrative screw ups in CA that prevented the processing of ~300k tests dating back several weeks.  This testing backlog was being gradually processed this week, which is why case counts in CA shot up so suddenly.

I really hope that explains it. If we're still seeing 50-55K cases next week, we're in even worse trouble than I thought we would be.

[Pericles]

Maybe it's a bit too early to say this with certainty, but the last week really seems consistent with the idea that we are - once again - plateauing at a disastrously high number of daily cases.

It seems logical, after all why would case numbers suddenly go down again? Very little has been done to actually stop the spread.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Maybe it's a bit too early to say this with certainty, but the last week really seems consistent with the idea that we are - once again - plateauing at a disastrously high number of daily cases.

It seems logical, after all why would case numbers suddenly go down again? Very little has been done to actually stop the spread.

Why did they eventually go down so dramatically in Sweden?
Once a certain threshold of infection is reached, case numbers will inevitably go down over time just due to partial herd immunity.

[Pericles]

Maybe it's a bit too early to say this with certainty, but the last week really seems consistent with the idea that we are - once again - plateauing at a disastrously high number of daily cases.

It seems logical, after all why would case numbers suddenly go down again? Very little has been done to actually stop the spread.

Why did they eventually go down so dramatically in Sweden?
Once a certain threshold of infection is reached, case numbers will inevitably go down over time just due to partial herd immunity.

Sweden is nowhere close to herd immunity and already has a higher per capita death toll than the US. Cases have gone down because the Swedes have gone to their holiday houses in the countryside and social contact is down, cases and deaths will go back up in the coming months.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Maybe it's a bit too early to say this with certainty, but the last week really seems consistent with the idea that we are - once again - plateauing at a disastrously high number of daily cases.

It seems logical, after all why would case numbers suddenly go down again? Very little has been done to actually stop the spread.

Why did they eventually go down so dramatically in Sweden?
Once a certain threshold of infection is reached, case numbers will inevitably go down over time just due to partial herd immunity.

Sweden is nowhere close to herd immunity and already has a higher per capita death toll than the US. Cases have gone down because the Swedes have gone to their holiday houses in the countryside and social contact is down, cases and deaths will go back up in the coming months.

I never said anything about the death rate, and I wasn’t meaning to imply that Sweden’s solution was a good one.

But the percentage of the population that must be infected to induce a reduction in cases under a regime of basic social distancing is far lower than the percentage required to achieve full herd immunity with no effort to distance whatsoever.  Even in places that have “reopened”, superspreader events like big conventions and sporting events are not happening (with a few notable exceptions).

For example, rt.live estimated the peak Rt in Arizona post-reopening at 1.25.  If you infect an additional 20% of the population, this by itself should drop the Rt to 1.0, and any additional infections beyond should move toward herd immunity. And it is quite possible that 20% of the population of AZ has been infected...this would be an infection/case ratio of about 7 to 1, which is actually lower than CDC estimates.

[jimrtex]

I think it was possible to keep schools reopened even if wasn't the greatest idea, However doing it with 0 restrictions was stupid.

The main changes that really need to be made in schools is better ventilation and better access to sinks. I'm the biggest germaphobe in the world, but I don't think kids need to go to school in a hazmat suit.

There's no way schools will be safe when community transmission is so widespread. Until new case numbers are pushed down to a low level, most activities will be too risky.

Are you suggesting that all school districts should consider going fully online for the fall semester? I am only beginning to imagine the consequences that will have for many families and students across the country. Of course, opening schools "normally" and in-person is fraught with its own difficulties, so we have a truly tough situation here.

Students (parents) should be given an option of in-person (traditional) schools, on-line charter schools, charter and private schools, cottage schools, home schooling, or no schooling.

Traditional schools should determine their capacity (teachers willing to work, class sizing, etc.). If more students want to attend than space is available, then oldest students in each grade are given priority.

Public schools should pay for students choosing on-line charter schools, charter and private schools, cottage schools, or home schooling.

For students choosing no schooling, taxes would be reduced.

Paying people to be illiterate?

Not levying taxes for services not provided.

Let's say a school district has 10,000 children of school age 5-17. They assess taxes to raise $7000 per student, or a total of $70M.

They are able to provide in-person schooling for 5000 willing students. 2000 choose on-line charter schools, 1000 choose private or charter schools, and 1000 choose to home school. 1000 prefer to defer education until they believe in-person schooling is safe, and don't like the alternatives.

So taxes are assessed for 9000 students.

That’s not how public goods work.

How so?

[It’s so Joever]

I would keep an eye on the Midwest and the Rocky Mountains. It seems they have yet to have had a major epicenter (Technically Michigan may fit, but not that much) Unless you can get the virus at least somewhat under control, anywhere in the country is susceptible, especially areas that have not had a big outbreak yet.

[Person Man]

I think it was possible to keep schools reopened even if wasn't the greatest idea, However doing it with 0 restrictions was stupid.

The main changes that really need to be made in schools is better ventilation and better access to sinks. I'm the biggest germaphobe in the world, but I don't think kids need to go to school in a hazmat suit.

There's no way schools will be safe when community transmission is so widespread. Until new case numbers are pushed down to a low level, most activities will be too risky.

Are you suggesting that all school districts should consider going fully online for the fall semester? I am only beginning to imagine the consequences that will have for many families and students across the country. Of course, opening schools "normally" and in-person is fraught with its own difficulties, so we have a truly tough situation here.

Students (parents) should be given an option of in-person (traditional) schools, on-line charter schools, charter and private schools, cottage schools, home schooling, or no schooling.

Traditional schools should determine their capacity (teachers willing to work, class sizing, etc.). If more students want to attend than space is available, then oldest students in each grade are given priority.

Public schools should pay for students choosing on-line charter schools, charter and private schools, cottage schools, or home schooling.

For students choosing no schooling, taxes would be reduced.

Paying people to be illiterate?

Not levying taxes for services not provided.

Let's say a school district has 10,000 children of school age 5-17. They assess taxes to raise $7000 per student, or a total of $70M.

They are able to provide in-person schooling for 5000 willing students. 2000 choose on-line charter schools, 1000 choose private or charter schools, and 1000 choose to home school. 1000 prefer to defer education until they believe in-person schooling is safe, and don't like the alternatives.

So taxes are assessed for 9000 students.

That’s not how public goods work.

How so?

Public goods are things that you can’t just make for certain people because there is no effective or desirable way to exclude people from the good or service.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Schools aren’t really a public good in the economics sense of the term.   Our society has chosen to make them freely available to all children because we believe it is good policy to have a universally educated public, not because it would be impractical to exclude children from them, or to tax individual families to send their children there.

[Person Man]

Schools aren’t really a public good in the economics sense of the term.   Our society has chosen to make them freely available to all children because we believe it is good policy to have a universally educated public, not because it would be impractical to exclude children from them, or to tax individual families to send their children there.

Well it kind of is when it’s the only way to participate in society. I guess we’ve had no public schools in the past and that it’s not like a street light where people will just be able to get light for free. The deal here would be is why not just have private schools? A system where people only pay what they use isn’t based on taxes. It’s based on fees.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 8/15 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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8/2: <Sunday>

• Cases: 4,813,647 (+49,329 | ΔW Change: ↓13.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 158,365 (+467 | ΔW Change: ↑12.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

8/3: <M>

• Cases: 4,862,174 (+48,527 | ΔW Change: ↓21.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.01%)
• Deaths: 158,929 (+564 | ΔW Change: ↓5.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

8/4: <T>

• Cases: 4,918,420 (+56,246 | ΔW Change: ↓13.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.16%)
• Deaths: 160,290 (+1,361 | ΔW Change: ↓27.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)

8/5: <W>

• Cases: 4,973,568 (+55,148 | ΔW Change: ↓20.87% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 161,601 (+1,311 | ΔW Change: ↓13.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)

8/6: <Þ>

• Cases: 5,032,179 (+58,611 | ΔW Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 162,804 (+1,203 | ΔW Change: ↓16.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)

8/7: <F>

• Cases: 5,095,524 (+63,345 | ΔW Change: ↓10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.26%)
• Deaths: 164,094 (+1,290 | ΔW Change: ↓11.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)

8/8: <S>

• Cases: 5,149,723 (+54,199 | ΔW Change: ↓8.80% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)
• Deaths: 165,070 (+976 | ΔW Change: ↓15.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)

8/9: <Sunday>

• Cases: 5,199,444 (+49,721 | ΔW Change: ↑0.79% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)
• Deaths: 165,617 (+547 | ΔW Change: ↑17.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)

8/10: <M>

• Cases: 5,251,446 (+52,002 | ΔW Change: ↑7.16% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)
• Deaths: 166,192 (+575 | ΔW Change: ↑1.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

8/11: <T>

• Cases: 5,305,957 (+54,511 | ΔW Change: ↓3.08% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 167,749 (+1,557 | ΔW Change: ↑14.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

8/12: <W>

• Cases: 5,360,302 (+54,345 | ΔW Change: ↓1.46% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 169,131 (+1,382 | ΔW Change: ↑5.42% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)

8/13: <Þ>

• Cases: 5,415,666 (+55,364 | ΔW Change: ↓5.54% | Σ Increase: ↑1.03%)
• Deaths: 170,415 (+1,284 | ΔW Change: ↑6.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.76%)

8/14 (Yesterday): <F>

• Cases: 5,476,266 (+60,600 | ΔW Change: ↓4.33% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 171,535 (+1,120 | ΔW Change: ↓13.18% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)

8/15 (Today): <S>

• Cases: 5,529,789 (+53,523 | ΔW Change: ↓1.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.98%)
• Deaths: 172,606 (+1,071 | ΔW Change: ↑9.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

[woodley park]

Awful. At this rate we will be well over 200,000 deaths by late September or early October.

[Pericles]

Awful. At this rate we will be well over 200,000 deaths by late September or early October.

I think the CDC predicted the US will exceed 200,000 by Labor Day. In reality though there have already been over 200,000 excess deaths in the US and the official death toll is almost certainly undercounting the full extent of the tragedy.

[Earthling]

Awful. At this rate we will be well over 200,000 deaths by late September or early October.

I think the CDC predicted the US will exceed 200,000 by Labor Day. In reality though there have already been over 200,000 excess deaths in the US and the official death toll is almost certainly undercounting the full extent of the tragedy.

Sadly enough, it will only get worse. The Trump administration is actively undermining the CDC and several states like Florida do the same. So the hidden tragedy will only get worse.

[jimrtex]

I think it was possible to keep schools reopened even if wasn't the greatest idea, However doing it with 0 restrictions was stupid.

The main changes that really need to be made in schools is better ventilation and better access to sinks. I'm the biggest germaphobe in the world, but I don't think kids need to go to school in a hazmat suit.

There's no way schools will be safe when community transmission is so widespread. Until new case numbers are pushed down to a low level, most activities will be too risky.

Are you suggesting that all school districts should consider going fully online for the fall semester? I am only beginning to imagine the consequences that will have for many families and students across the country. Of course, opening schools "normally" and in-person is fraught with its own difficulties, so we have a truly tough situation here.

Students (parents) should be given an option of in-person (traditional) schools, on-line charter schools, charter and private schools, cottage schools, home schooling, or no schooling.

Traditional schools should determine their capacity (teachers willing to work, class sizing, etc.). If more students want to attend than space is available, then oldest students in each grade are given priority.

Public schools should pay for students choosing on-line charter schools, charter and private schools, cottage schools, or home schooling.

For students choosing no schooling, taxes would be reduced.

Paying people to be illiterate?

Not levying taxes for services not provided.

Let's say a school district has 10,000 children of school age 5-17. They assess taxes to raise $7000 per student, or a total of $70M.

They are able to provide in-person schooling for 5000 willing students. 2000 choose on-line charter schools, 1000 choose private or charter schools, and 1000 choose to home school. 1000 prefer to defer education until they believe in-person schooling is safe, and don't like the alternatives.

So taxes are assessed for 9000 students.

That’s not how public goods work.

How so?

Public goods are things that you can’t just make for certain people because there is no effective or desirable way to exclude people from the good or service.

If you are unable to provide that service, then there is no excuse to charge those who are funding the service.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think it was possible to keep schools reopened even if wasn't the greatest idea, However doing it with 0 restrictions was stupid.

The main changes that really need to be made in schools is better ventilation and better access to sinks. I'm the biggest germaphobe in the world, but I don't think kids need to go to school in a hazmat suit.

There's no way schools will be safe when community transmission is so widespread. Until new case numbers are pushed down to a low level, most activities will be too risky.

Are you suggesting that all school districts should consider going fully online for the fall semester? I am only beginning to imagine the consequences that will have for many families and students across the country. Of course, opening schools "normally" and in-person is fraught with its own difficulties, so we have a truly tough situation here.

Students (parents) should be given an option of in-person (traditional) schools, on-line charter schools, charter and private schools, cottage schools, home schooling, or no schooling.

Traditional schools should determine their capacity (teachers willing to work, class sizing, etc.). If more students want to attend than space is available, then oldest students in each grade are given priority.

Public schools should pay for students choosing on-line charter schools, charter and private schools, cottage schools, or home schooling.

For students choosing no schooling, taxes would be reduced.

Paying people to be illiterate?

Not levying taxes for services not provided.

Let's say a school district has 10,000 children of school age 5-17. They assess taxes to raise $7000 per student, or a total of $70M.

They are able to provide in-person schooling for 5000 willing students. 2000 choose on-line charter schools, 1000 choose private or charter schools, and 1000 choose to home school. 1000 prefer to defer education until they believe in-person schooling is safe, and don't like the alternatives.

So taxes are assessed for 9000 students.

That’s not how public goods work.

How so?

Public goods are things that you can’t just make for certain people because there is no effective or desirable way to exclude people from the good or service.

If you are unable to provide that service, then there is no excuse to charge those who are funding the service.

Why would only people who choose not to send their kids to school get a tax rebate?  What about all the people who don’t have school age children?  Why are we making them pay for public schools now when they don’t use them?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cherokee County update: 3rd high school now closed due to COVID-19.

Creekview High School in Canton is suspending in-person learning effective immediately through Aug. 31, according to a spokeswoman for the county school district.

The decision came after more than a quarter of the 1,800 students taking in-person classes at the high school were directed to quarantine. The school district said it’s expecting the number of quarantined students to “significantly increase” once pending tests are returned.