COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Del Tachi]

A good article about the CDC and the tracking of "excess deaths"

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-excess-deaths-tally-in-the-us-is-204691-in-7-months-so-covid-19-deaths-might-be-undercounted-2020-08-13?siteid=yhoof2

Only 16,000 of the excess deaths are not included in the official COVID counts.  There’s plenty of reason to think that lockdowns are also drivers of excess mortality, especially since so many “non-essential” medical visits/procedures were being cancelled/delayed earlier this year. 

[GP270watch]

 I never imagined The United States could have such a poor response to a pandemic, even with Trump at the helm. Like I went back and looked at my posts and I couldn't believe the failure it would take to get the death toll this high.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I'd actually think that as more months pass, the number of excess deaths should be fewer than the number of covid deaths, because such a large percentage of early covid deaths were from nursing homes.  A majority of nursing home residents die within six month of entering the home.  So a large percentage of those who died in March and April from covid would have died a few months later of other causes, and this should result in a deficit in excess deaths during these later months.

[GP270watch]

I'd actually think that as more months pass, the number of excess deaths should be fewer than the number of covid deaths, because such a large percentage of early covid deaths were from nursing homes.  A majority of nursing home residents die within six month of entering the home.  So a large percentage of those who died in March and April from covid would have died a few months later of other causes, and this should result in a deficit in excess deaths during these later months.

There is some evidence that Covid might be pulling deaths forward but no real evidence of increased deaths of despair which was already trending in America and is unrelated to Covid-19.

[It’s so Joever]

Stanford study shows teens who vape are 5x-7x more likely to develop COVID-19 symptoms, even controlling for confounding factors

I don’t understand why people think it’s safe to vape anyways.
It’s honestly probably more dangerous than conventional cigarettes and the pulmonologist researchers I’ve talked to agree.
It’s such a shame America‘s drug culture is becoming so permissive.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Stanford study shows teens who vape are 5x-7x more likely to develop COVID-19 symptoms, even controlling for confounding factors

I don’t understand why people think it’s safe to vape anyways.
It’s honestly probably more dangerous than conventional cigarettes and the pulmonologist researchers I’ve talked to agree.
It’s such a shame America‘s drug culture is becoming so permissive.

I agree, especially with the reports of mysterious lung illnesses in some vapers.

It seems logical that any kind of smoking/vaping could increase the risk factor for COVID-19.  Have there been any studies about its effects in tobacco or marijuana smokers?

[It’s so Joever]

Stanford study shows teens who vape are 5x-7x more likely to develop COVID-19 symptoms, even controlling for confounding factors

I don’t understand why people think it’s safe to vape anyways.
It’s honestly probably more dangerous than conventional cigarettes and the pulmonologist researchers I’ve talked to agree.
It’s such a shame America‘s drug culture is becoming so permissive.

I agree, especially with the reports of mysterious lung illnesses in some vapers.

It seems logical that any kind of smoking/vaping could increase the risk factor for COVID-19.  Have there been any studies about its effects in tobacco or marijuana smokers?

The evidence has been very limited and has ranged from “smokers are protected” to “if you touched a cig once you will die”. I wouldn’t be surprised, considering how both do affect the pulmonary/cardiovascular systems, although the evidence is conflicting.

Funny enough, some conspiracy theorists now are saying that Covid started in the US in 2019 and was actually the “mysterious lung disease” found in vapers.
Of course, these theories have about as much credibility at the ones about the Wuhan lab. (None)

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1293990087911514112

It is funny on how the pro-lock down people refuse to acknowledge the stats like this.

And I have not had one pro-lockdown person yet have a coherent answer when they are confronted with the societal issues of mass evictions, mass suicides, permanent unemployment, etc just to save a few old people.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1293990087911514112

It is funny on how the pro-lock down people refuse to acknowledge the stats like this.

And I have not had one pro-lockdown person yet have a coherent answer when they are confronted with the societal issues of mass evictions, mass suicides, permanent unemployment, etc just to save a few old people.

Have we been on lockdown in the past 30 days?
Anyways, my new plan would only be a two week shutdown for much of the country and would include a moratorium on evictions (with landlord support) and would give a check to all Americans to provide for basic needs.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It is funny on how the pro-lock down people refuse to acknowledge the stats like this.

From March to July, I didn't want to live. Not at all. Except maybe for a brief few days in May or June when the negativity let up for a little bit.

I don't think I really started feeling better for very long until I pretty much stopped looking at "mainstream" news outlets.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/thevincedao/status/1294025828800450560

Bruh, this is actually exactly how we defeat the virus LOL. Anyways, that guy's people are responsible for this anyways so he should just stfu.

[Beet]

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1293990087911514112

It is funny on how the pro-lock down people refuse to acknowledge the stats like this.

And I have not had one pro-lockdown person yet have a coherent answer when they are confronted with the societal issues of mass evictions, mass suicides, permanent unemployment, etc just to save a few old people.

This has been answered before.

1. There is no clear study proving the relationship between suicides and lockdowns. While there is some anecdotal evidence that suicides have increased, no one knows whether that is because of the lockdown or because the stress of the pandemic itself. And there are other reports that suicides decreased. Indeed, statistics show suicides actually declined during lockdowns in Germany, New Zealand, the Indian states of Punjab and Haryana, and Japan. A cross-national Google study suggest that life satisfaction similarly fell with the arrival of the pandemic and rebounded after lockdown began. If negative mental health and suicides are indeed being driven by the pandemic itself and not the lockdown, then lockdowns may actually help mental health in the long run by bringing the pandemic under control earlier.

2. A lockdown must be accompanied by a ban on evictions, of course. It's a catastrophe that not all jurisdictions have chosen this.

3. A lockdown must be accompanied by either paid furloughs or generous universal basic income to tide people over, accompanied by financial support to small businesses, funded by QE. Again, there is a problem when these or similar economic measures are not implemented and I would not advocate strict lockdowns without these measures.

[GeorgiaModerate]

White House warns of ‘widespread and expanding’ COVID-19 spread in Georgia

President Trump’s coronavirus task force warns that Georgia continues to see “widespread and expanding community viral spread” and that the state’s current policies aren’t enough to curtail COVID-19.

The task force “strongly recommends” Georgia adopt a statewide mandate that citizens wear masks, joining a chorus of public health officials, Democrats and others who have warned that Gov. Brian Kemp’s refusal to order face coverings has plunged the state into deeper crisis and will prolong recovery.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

White House warns of ‘widespread and expanding’ COVID-19 spread in Georgia

President Trump’s coronavirus task force warns that Georgia continues to see “widespread and expanding community viral spread” and that the state’s current policies aren’t enough to curtail COVID-19.

The task force “strongly recommends” Georgia adopt a statewide mandate that citizens wear masks, joining a chorus of public health officials, Democrats and others who have warned that Gov. Brian Kemp’s refusal to order face coverings has plunged the state into deeper crisis and will prolong recovery.

Are folks in Georgia actually afraid of this virus?

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1293990087911514112

It is funny on how the pro-lock down people refuse to acknowledge the stats like this.

And I have not had one pro-lockdown person yet have a coherent answer when they are confronted with the societal issues of mass evictions, mass suicides, permanent unemployment, etc just to save a few old people.

Have we been on lockdown in the past 30 days?
Anyways, my new plan would only be a two week shutdown for much of the country and would include a moratorium on evictions (with landlord support) and would give a check to all Americans to provide for basic needs.

I would be fine doing 30 day lockdown in much of the sun belt right now and in winter a 30 day lockdown in the north. That should be able to mitigate economic and health damage.

I do believe the hot spots will come back up north after October.

[GeorgiaModerate]

White House warns of ‘widespread and expanding’ COVID-19 spread in Georgia

President Trump’s coronavirus task force warns that Georgia continues to see “widespread and expanding community viral spread” and that the state’s current policies aren’t enough to curtail COVID-19.

The task force “strongly recommends” Georgia adopt a statewide mandate that citizens wear masks, joining a chorus of public health officials, Democrats and others who have warned that Gov. Brian Kemp’s refusal to order face coverings has plunged the state into deeper crisis and will prolong recovery.

Are folks in Georgia actually afraid of this virus?

Some are.  Some aren't.

[jamestroll]

And I am not flip flopping when I state I want temporary regional lockdowns. My goal is to keep the economy open and mitigate economic damage and minimize infections and deaths. Temporary regional lock downs are part of my plan.

[emailking]

And I have not had one pro-lockdown person yet have a coherent answer when they are confronted with the societal issues of mass evictions, mass suicides, permanent unemployment, etc just to save a few old people.

Depends what you mean by pro-lockdown. I don't think most people here want a very long lockdown as you seem to imply. From your 2 previous posts, you appear to favor some lockdowns yourself.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The U.S. just got its lowest positivity rate since way back on JUNE 25 (6.23%).

[jamestroll]

And I have not had one pro-lockdown person yet have a coherent answer when they are confronted with the societal issues of mass evictions, mass suicides, permanent unemployment, etc just to save a few old people.

Depends what you mean by pro-lockdown. I don't think most people here want a very long lockdown as you seem to imply. From your 2 previous posts, you appear to favor some lockdowns yourself.

Yes, in an ideal world I would lock down much of the sun belt for a month and in the winter would certainly lock down much of the north region by region for a month ease to help mitigate the spread of the virus without incredibly damaging impact to the economy.

There is a bell curve in that a completely open and normal economy right now could end up crashing horrifically and we end up in a depression and closed. Not what I want!

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 8/13 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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8/2: <Sunday>

• Cases: 4,813,647 (+49,329 | ΔW Change: ↓13.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 158,365 (+467 | ΔW Change: ↑12.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

8/3: <M>

• Cases: 4,862,174 (+48,527 | ΔW Change: ↓21.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.01%)
• Deaths: 158,929 (+564 | ΔW Change: ↓5.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

8/4: <T>

• Cases: 4,918,420 (+56,246 | ΔW Change: ↓13.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.16%)
• Deaths: 160,290 (+1,361 | ΔW Change: ↓27.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)

8/5: <W>

• Cases: 4,973,568 (+55,148 | ΔW Change: ↓20.87% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 161,601 (+1,311 | ΔW Change: ↓13.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)

8/6: <Þ>

• Cases: 5,032,179 (+58,611 | ΔW Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 162,804 (+1,203 | ΔW Change: ↓16.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)

8/7: <F>

• Cases: 5,095,524 (+63,345 | ΔW Change: ↓10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.26%)
• Deaths: 164,094 (+1,290 | ΔW Change: ↓11.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)

8/8: <S>

• Cases: 5,149,723 (+54,199 | ΔW Change: ↓8.80% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)
• Deaths: 165,070 (+976 | ΔW Change: ↓15.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)

8/9: <Sunday>

• Cases: 5,199,444 (+49,721 | ΔW Change: ↑0.79% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)
• Deaths: 165,617 (+547 | ΔW Change: ↑17.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)

8/10: <M>

• Cases: 5,251,446 (+52,002 | ΔW Change: ↑7.16% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)
• Deaths: 166,192 (+575 | ΔW Change: ↑1.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

8/11: <T>

• Cases: 5,305,957 (+54,511 | ΔW Change: ↓3.08% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 167,749 (+1,557 | ΔW Change: ↑14.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

8/12 (Yesterday): <W>

• Cases: 5,360,302 (+54,345 | ΔW Change: ↓1.46% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 169,131 (+1,382 | ΔW Change: ↑5.42% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)

8/13 (Today): <Þ>

• Cases: 5,415,666 (+55,364 | ΔW Change: ↓5.54% | Σ Increase: ↑1.03%)
• Deaths: 170,415 (+1,284 | ΔW Change: ↑6.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.76%)

[Edu]

Are you sure that's correct, Arch? I see on the worldometer page that the current US number is 170,415

[Dr. Arch]

Are you sure that's correct, Arch? I see on the worldometer page that the current US number is 170,415

Yep! You're right. Transposition typo. Thanks for the catch. Fixed.

[Horus]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-TABLES_202008121039.pdf#page=3

35% of Americans would opt against vaccination if one became available, including 45% of GenXers, 42% of non whites and 44% of white women who have not graduated college.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I thought Gen X'ers were always complaining about being the only ones to take this seriously, monitoring both unruly children and elderly parents.