COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Holmes]

I guess it's interesting to see how many students are wearing masks? But posting pictures of random students minding their business at school is kind of creepy.

Whatever

This is no expectation of privacy in public places.

Is a school a public place? Is it ok for just anyone to enter a school, especially when children are present?

[pppolitics]

I guess it's interesting to see how many students are wearing masks? But posting pictures of random students minding their business at school is kind of creepy.

Whatever

This is no expectation of privacy in public places.

Is a school a public place? Is it ok for just anyone to enter a school, especially when children are present?

"‘Public Place' means an enclosed area to which the public is invited or in which the public is permitted including, but not limited to, banks, and other financial institutions, publicly funded or owned buildings, school and college buildings, public conveyances, recreational facilities, lounges, taverns and bars, educational facilities, health care facilities, laundromats, public transportation facilities, reception areas, restaurants, retail or wholesale food production and marketing establishments including grocery stores, supermarket and stores where food items are sold for on-premises or off-premises consumption, retail service establishments, retail or wholesale stores, shopping malls, sports arenas, theaters, and waiting rooms. A private residence is not a "public place" unless it is used as a licensed child care, licensed adult day care, health care or pre-school facility."

[Ogre Mage]

According to the Worldometer, as of 8/4/2020 the United States has the 10th highest per capita COVID-19 case rate among over 200 nations surveyed.  No major nation has a worse rate.

The U.S. also has the 10th highest per capita COVID-19 death rate.  However, some major nations do worse:  The U.K., Spain and Italy.  

The U.S. track record is not clearly the absolute worst, but it is clearly $h!t and worst than most.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 8/4 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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7/26: <Sunday>

• Cases: 4,371,839 (+56,151 | ΔW Change: ↓11.24% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 149,849 (+454 | ΔW Change: ↑15.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

7/27: <M>

• Cases: 4,433,392 (+61,553 | ΔW Change: ↓4.68% | Σ Increase: ↑1.41%)
• Deaths: 150,444 (+595 | ΔW Change: ↑5.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)

7/28: <T>

• Cases: 4,498,343 (+64,951 | ΔW Change: ↓3.26% | Σ Increase: ↑1.47%)
• Deaths: 152,320 (+1,876 | ΔW Change: ↑67.65% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)

7/29: <W>

• Cases: 4,568,037 (+69,694 | ΔW Change: ↓3.61% | Σ Increase: ↑1.55%)
• Deaths: 153,840 (+1,520 | ΔW Change: ↑23.58% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)

7/30: <Þ>

• Cases: 4,634,985 (+66,948 | ΔW Change: ↓3.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.47%)
• Deaths: 155,285 (+1,445 | ΔW Change: ↑25.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

7/31: <F>

• Cases: 4,705,889 (+70,904 | ΔW Change: ↓9.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.53%)
• Deaths: 156,747 (+1,462 | ΔW Change: ↑26.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

8/1: <S>

• Cases: 4,764,318 (+58,429 | ΔW Change: ↓13.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.24%)
• Deaths: 157,898 (+1,151 | ΔW Change: ↑27.18% | Σ Increase: ↑0.73%)

8/2: <Sunday>

• Cases: 4,813,647 (+49,329 | ΔW Change: ↓13.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 158,365 (+467 | ΔW Change: ↑12.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

8/3 (Yesterday): <M>

• Cases: 4,862,174 (+48,527 | ΔW Change: ↓21.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.01%)
• Deaths: 158,929 (+564 | ΔW Change: ↓5.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

8/4 (Today): <T>

• Cases: 4,918,420 (+56,246 | ΔW Change: ↓13.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.16%)
• Deaths: 160,290 (+1,361 | ΔW Change: ↓27.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)

[BobbieMac]

According to the Worldometer, as of 8/4/2020 the United States has the 10th highest per capita COVID-19 case rate among over 200 nations surveyed.  No major nation has a worse rate.

The U.S. also has the 10th highest per capita COVID-19 death rate.  However, some major nations do worse:  The U.K., Spain and Italy.  

The U.S. track record is not clearly the absolute worst, but it is clearly $h!t and worst than most.

Just a general point, I don't think the figures at the moment for any nation match reality, I imagine there are at least 10x the number of cases. There has been a cover up in Iran of deaths (add 30K to the total) Furthermore, expect the UK figure to drop once the government has taken out suspected and non-contributing deaths, which they are currently reviewing.

[Omega21]

It's pretty similar to March though in that there's widespread community transmission. Schooling is important, but there's no way it'll be safe with the situation being as it is currently. And the way to get case numbers down quickly enough to start reopening some stuff and not to have an agonising drawn-out economic & health disaster is to go for a hard lockdown.

America had a hard lockdown for 2 months. It didn't work.

No it didn't. A few states like New York had hard lockdowns, while of course those started way too late and Cuomo made a huge mistake with care homes, that did stop widespread community transmission. States like Florida and Arizona went with soft lockdowns that didn't actually decrease their curves, and then opened up too early when the situation hadn't actually improved from when they went into lockdown.

European countries generally went for hard lockdowns, so their curves actually decreased rather than just plateauing.

Has 130% the population
Has 1/10th of the cases

Butthurt Trumpsters: EUROPE IS ALSO EXPERIENCING A NEW WAVE!!!!

[Landslide Lyndon]

A modern day Cicero.

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1290978968020168707

[Mr. Illini]

I don't really see how the case fatality rate (deaths/cases) can be used to declare a success if the mortality rate (deaths/capita) continues to increase.

Why does it matter that the likelihood of a death per confirmed case is decreasing if the disease is spreading at a rate that is still causing the daily death count to consistently rise?

Unless you're committed to going for herd immunity...

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://mobile.twitter.com/atrupar/status/1290985999942778880

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It will go away like things go away...

Can you go away, please?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is it really even news when Trump says something and doesn't provide insight on it?

Of course schools should open, but more people would agree if the statement had insight and intelligence. For instance: "We know these are challenging times, but we owe it to our nation's children to provide the most robust education experience possible. Schools are vital for social development. I have confidence that schools and families will be able to work this out and move forward."

That makes more sense than "There will be death" and "Sad."

[lfromnj]

I kinda want to open schools just to spite teacher unions but ik its probably too risky of an idea(by spite teacher unions I mean ones in Oakland that want to limit live online instruction to 2 hours a day)

[Former President tack50]

It's pretty similar to March though in that there's widespread community transmission. Schooling is important, but there's no way it'll be safe with the situation being as it is currently. And the way to get case numbers down quickly enough to start reopening some stuff and not to have an agonising drawn-out economic & health disaster is to go for a hard lockdown.

America had a hard lockdown for 2 months. It didn't work.

That was not a hard lockdown. That was 50 states doing 50 different things.

Do you think Spain had a hard lockdown?

Spain did actually drive down their case curve pretty hard and relatively fast. No one policy is going to solve it forever, and it seems Spain made mistakes in recent weeks that caused their case numbers to rise (their case numbers are not more than double the numbers in the first spike, as has been seen in the US though).

If I had to guess what has caused the big spikes here, it seems that what is being blamed the most is nightlife related stuff, so bars, pubs, etc; as well as simply young people meeting by themselves and partying

This data is 5 days old but it still illustrates the point. 75% of spikes in Spain have 10 positive cases or less and can be reasonably tracked.

The remaining 25% (120) have more than 10 cases. Of these, 90 involve family reunions and similar kinds of meetings while 30 involve nightlife.

However, the 30 spikes involving nightlife are a nightmare to track as they involve hundreds of people infected at once; and they account for 1100 positives. Meanwhile the 90 spikes involving family reunions only have 760 positives.

In fairness, with an economy so dependent on tourism (tourism is 16% of GDP) it was inevitable that we had to reopen but it seems we reopened too much

I wonder if that is also the case in Florida; though if so I'd also expect big spikes in other tourism heavy states like California, which does not seem to be the case.

[Former President tack50]

I kinda want to open schools just to spite teacher unions but ik its probably too risky of an idea(by spite teacher unions I mean ones in Oakland that want to limit live online instruction to 2 hours a day)

Putting children and adults at risk of dying to own the libs...

[GP270watch]

I kinda want to open schools just to spite teacher unions but ik its probably too risky of an idea(by spite teacher unions I mean ones in Oakland that want to limit live online instruction to 2 hours a day)

Putting children and adults at risk of dying to own the libs...

I am willing to compromise students and their families to spite organized labor...

 Gotta be one of the worst posts I ever read.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I kinda want to open schools just to spite teacher unions but ik its probably too risky of an idea(by spite teacher unions I mean ones in Oakland that want to limit live online instruction to 2 hours a day)

Always respect your posts, lfromnj, but this is pretty distasteful.

[lfromnj]

I don't have a problem with teacher unions opposing reopening schools, my problem is when they make absurd demands like limiting online instruction to 2 hours a day maximum, when such absurd demands are made they should not be listened to and one should go Reagan 1981. I still moderately oppose reopening schools but I just find it insane what the unions are doing.

[cg41386]

Yikes.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I don't have a problem with teacher unions opposing reopening schools, my problem is when they make absurd demands like limiting online instruction to 2 hours a day maximum, when such absurd demands are made they should not be listened to and one should go Reagan 1981. I still moderately oppose reopening schools but I just find it insane what the unions are doing.

Sounds like you know literally nothing about teaching. Keep it up.

[lfromnj]

I don't have a problem with teacher unions opposing reopening schools, my problem is when they make absurd demands like limiting online instruction to 2 hours a day maximum, when such absurd demands are made they should not be listened to and one should go Reagan 1981. I still moderately oppose reopening schools but I just find it insane what the unions are doing.

Sounds like you know literally nothing about teaching. Keep it up.

Explain why the unions should be listened to over their demands of limiting live instruction to 2 hours a day? Shouldn't the goal be to as close to as normal school as possible?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1291117316831432715

[GeorgiaModerate]

Several students in the Corinth School District in Mississippi have been infected with Covid-19 a little over a week after in-person classes resumed.

Taylor Coombs, spokesperson for the Corinth School District, told CNN that six students and one staff member tested positive for the coronavirus. According to Coombs, 116 students that have been considered in "close contact" of a positive case have been sent home to quarantine for 14 days.

The student population in the district is 2700.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/05/us/mississippi-school-district-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

An update on Cherokee County, which we've discussed before:

In an updated COVID-19 case count Wednesday evening, the Cherokee County School District added one middle and two elementary schools to its list of affected schools. These schools are in addition to Sixes Elementary, which had the first known COVID-19 case Monday, the first day of classes in the district.

As with Sixes Elementary, students and staff are quarantining at all three schools.

https://www.ajc.com/education/get-schooled-blog/cherokee-reports-covid-19-cases-in-three-more-schools/V6K7XGLZXVHRTFI7E6BSXZIQAU/

[Beet]

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1291172686824189952?s=19

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RodneyDavis/status/1291151261006471168

I wonder if he got it from Louie Gohmert.