COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some of you folks give the impression you think the pandemic is all but over.  Do you really think that?  If so, why?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Obviously the pandemic isn’t over.  But the point at which we can do something else about it besides wait for a vaccine kind of is.

[Virginiá]

The nation has moved on

Pretty much. Not that it's a good thing, but we've pretty much reached the point where people are no longer willing to give up their social lives for it. Although, and I say this as someone who lives in a staunchly Republican county, people are still wearing masks, even in places they aren't required. So at least all precautions aren't being abandoned.

[It’s so Joever]

This year, America has proven to be a nation of spoiled, petulant toddlers.
We have given up, because Americans are failures right now. Winter is coming, and we deserve what will happen soon.

Banning TikTok and saying “MaAaGgA” won’t keep us number one, as long as we don’t have functional responses to emergencies and a completely delusional population. This virus will only accelerate our decline on the World stage, and it’s our fault.
Lockdowns shouldn’t be implemented now for economic reasons, but basic social distancing shouldn’t be too much to ask from grown-**s adults when possible.
But even common sense has been politicized.

Congratulations everyone, we have lost the war.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Some of you folks give the impression you think the pandemic is all but over.  Do you really think that?  If so, why?

Most people around here don't seem to be worried about it anymore. The only sign of it here is that you see a few people in masks.

[Frodo]

So I think we have all heard how the Sturgis motorcycle rally proved to be a super-spreader event -for comparison's sake, have there been any updated figures on the impact of Black Lives Matter protests on the spread of COVID-19?  The only articles I can find on the subject are from late June into early July, which all say that the protests somehow did not become super-spreader events.  Welcome as the news was, I thought it was a bit early at the time to be drawing those conclusions.  It's been more than two months now since then.  Has anything changed?

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 9/11 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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8/30: <Sunday>

• Cases: 6,173,236 (+34,158 | ΔW Change: ↑4.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 187,224 (+369 | ΔW Change: ↓14.19% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

8/31: <M>

• Cases: 6,211,682 (+38,446 | ΔW Change: ↓7.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)
• Deaths: 187,736 (+512 | ΔW Change: ↑0.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)

9/1: <T>

• Cases: 6,257,571 (+45,889 | ΔW Change: ↑14.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 188,900 (+1,164 | ΔW Change: ↓9.77% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

9/2: <W>

• Cases: 6,290,737 (+33,166 | ΔW Change: ↓25.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)
• Deaths: 189,964 (+1,064 | ΔW Change: ↓14.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

9/3: <Þ>

• Cases: 6,335,244 (+44,507 | ΔW Change: ↓3.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)
• Deaths: 191,058 (+1,094 | ΔW Change: ↓4.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)

9/4: <F>

• Cases: 6,389,057 (+53,813 | ΔW Change: ↑8.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.85%)
• Deaths: 192,111 (+1,053 | ΔW Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

9/5: <S>

• Cases: 6,431,152 (+42,095 | ΔW Change: ↓1.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)
• Deaths: 192,818 (+707 | ΔW Change: ↓25.89% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

9/6: <Sunday>

• Cases: 6,460,250 (+29,098 | ΔW Change: ↓14.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
• Deaths: 193,250 (+432 | ΔW Change: ↑17.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

9/7: <M>

• Cases: 6,485,575 (+25,325 | ΔW Change: ↓34.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)
• Deaths: 193,534 (+284 | ΔW Change: ↓44.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.15%)

9/8: <T>

• Cases: 6,514,231 (+28,656 | ΔW Change: ↓37.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)
• Deaths: 194,032 (+498 | ΔW Change: ↓57.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.26%)

9/9: <W>

• Cases: 6,549,475 (+35,244 | ΔW Change: ↑6.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 195,239 (+1,207 | ΔW Change: ↑13.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

9/10 (Yesterday): <Þ>

• Cases: 6,588,163 (+35,244 | ΔW Change: ↓20.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 196,328 (+1,089 | ΔW Change: ↓0.46% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

9/11 (Today): <F>

• Cases: 6,636,247 (+48,084 | ΔW Change: ↓10.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.73%)
• Deaths: 197,421 (+1,093 | ΔW Change: ↑3.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

So I think we have all heard how the Sturgis motorcycle rally proved to be a super-spreader event -for comparison's sake, have there been any updated figures on the impact of Black Lives Matter protests on the spread of COVID-19?  The only articles I can find on the subject are from late June into early July, which all say that the protests somehow did not become super-spreader events.  Welcome as the news was, I thought it was a bit early at the time to be drawing those conclusions.  It's been more than two months now since then.  Has anything changed?

I think we've pretty much established that neither BLM nor Sturgis was a superspreader. I went to a BLM rally where there were lots of people without masks, and nobody seemed to spread anything. The idea that there were 250,000 cases linked to Sturgis has been pretty much debunked as a complete joke. Like I said, that was just some economist trying to trace smartphone data and linking any unusual rise in cases to Sturgis.

In fact, BLM and Sturgis both seem to have a negative R0 somehow.

[emailking]

In fact, BLM and Sturgis both seem to have a negative R0 somehow.

What does that mean?

[It’s so Joever]

In fact, BLM and Sturgis both seem to have a negative R0 somehow.

What does that mean?

It means now people are infecting the virus.

He probably is confusing an R0 below one with “negative R0”.
I wouldn’t be surprised.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1304907317968855047

[Frodo]

Thanks to Trump and his goons, we increasingly cannot trust anything coming out of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention anymore:

Trump officials interfered with CDC reports on Covid-19
The politically appointed HHS spokesperson and his team demanded and received the right to review CDC’s scientific reports to health professionals.

The health department’s politically appointed communications aides have demanded the right to review and seek changes to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s weekly scientific reports charting the progress of the coronavirus pandemic, in what officials characterized as an attempt to intimidate the reports’ authors and water down their communications to health professionals.

In some cases, emails from communications aides to CDC Director Robert Redfield and other senior officials openly complained that the agency’s reports would undermine President Donald Trump's optimistic messages about the outbreak, according to emails reviewed by POLITICO and three people familiar with the situation.

CDC officials have fought back against the most sweeping changes, but have increasingly agreed to allow the political officials to review the reports and, in a few cases, compromised on the wording, according to three people familiar with the exchanges. The communications aides’ efforts to change the language in the CDC’s reports have been constant across the summer and continued as recently as Friday afternoon.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 9/12 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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8/30: <Sunday>

• Cases: 6,173,236 (+34,158 | ΔW Change: ↑4.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 187,224 (+369 | ΔW Change: ↓14.19% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

8/31: <M>

• Cases: 6,211,682 (+38,446 | ΔW Change: ↓7.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)
• Deaths: 187,736 (+512 | ΔW Change: ↑0.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)

9/1: <T>

• Cases: 6,257,571 (+45,889 | ΔW Change: ↑14.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 188,900 (+1,164 | ΔW Change: ↓9.77% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

9/2: <W>

• Cases: 6,290,737 (+33,166 | ΔW Change: ↓25.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)
• Deaths: 189,964 (+1,064 | ΔW Change: ↓14.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

9/3: <Þ>

• Cases: 6,335,244 (+44,507 | ΔW Change: ↓3.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)
• Deaths: 191,058 (+1,094 | ΔW Change: ↓4.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)

9/4: <F>

• Cases: 6,389,057 (+53,813 | ΔW Change: ↑8.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.85%)
• Deaths: 192,111 (+1,053 | ΔW Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

9/5: <S>

• Cases: 6,431,152 (+42,095 | ΔW Change: ↓1.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)
• Deaths: 192,818 (+707 | ΔW Change: ↓25.89% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

9/6: <Sunday>

• Cases: 6,460,250 (+29,098 | ΔW Change: ↓14.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
• Deaths: 193,250 (+432 | ΔW Change: ↑17.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

9/7: <M>

• Cases: 6,485,575 (+25,325 | ΔW Change: ↓34.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)
• Deaths: 193,534 (+284 | ΔW Change: ↓44.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.15%)

9/8: <T>

• Cases: 6,514,231 (+28,656 | ΔW Change: ↓37.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)
• Deaths: 194,032 (+498 | ΔW Change: ↓57.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.26%)

9/9: <W>

• Cases: 6,549,475 (+35,244 | ΔW Change: ↑6.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 195,239 (+1,207 | ΔW Change: ↑13.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

9/10: <Þ>

• Cases: 6,588,163 (+35,244 | ΔW Change: ↓20.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 196,328 (+1,089 | ΔW Change: ↓0.46% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

9/11 (Yesterday): <F>

• Cases: 6,636,247 (+48,084 | ΔW Change: ↓10.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.73%)
• Deaths: 197,421 (+1,093 | ΔW Change: ↑3.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

9/12 (Today): <S>

• Cases: 6,676,601 (+40,354 | ΔW Change: ↓4.14% | Σ Increase: ↑0.61%)
• Deaths: 198,128 (+707 | ΔW Change: ↑0.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

[Pro-Israel, anti-Bibi]

So I think we have all heard how the Sturgis motorcycle rally proved to be a super-spreader event -for comparison's sake, have there been any updated figures on the impact of Black Lives Matter protests on the spread of COVID-19?  The only articles I can find on the subject are from late June into early July, which all say that the protests somehow did not become super-spreader events.  Welcome as the news was, I thought it was a bit early at the time to be drawing those conclusions.  It's been more than two months now since then.  Has anything changed?

The idea that there were 250,000 cases linked to Sturgis has been pretty much debunked as a complete joke.

Not by anybody credible.

[jimrtex]

So I think we have all heard how the Sturgis motorcycle rally proved to be a super-spreader event -for comparison's sake, have there been any updated figures on the impact of Black Lives Matter protests on the spread of COVID-19?  The only articles I can find on the subject are from late June into early July, which all say that the protests somehow did not become super-spreader events.  Welcome as the news was, I thought it was a bit early at the time to be drawing those conclusions.  It's been more than two months now since then.  Has anything changed?

That was a model (theory). It has not been proven by actual observation.

[It’s so Joever]

As thousands of people are dying, the virus truthers are trying to go off on a tangent about whether or not Sturgis caused Covid.
Stop letting them shift the narrative, this is what they want. They want you to get into these side arguments and ignore the big picture.

The families of the deceased or the permanently disabled don’t care about whether some model is correct or not. We are still facing a catastrophe, and the truthers want you to ignore that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1305205506689003520

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1305205506689003520

Israel’s average new cases right now are about double what the US was experiencing six weeks ago at our peak.

[jimrtex]

As thousands of people are dying, the virus truthers are trying to go off on a tangent about whether or not Sturgis caused Covid.
Stop letting them shift the narrative, this is what they want. They want you to get into these side arguments and ignore the big picture.

The families of the deceased or the permanently disabled don’t care about whether some model is correct or not. We are still facing a catastrophe, and the truthers want you to ignore that.

It was Covid catastrophists such as yourself who were pushing a narrative that Orange Man supporting bikers were causing a superspreader event at Sturgis. After being infected, when they returned home they actually rode their Harleys into grandma's nursing home and coughed on her. "Taste some or your own medicine Granny", the Hells Angel hellion roared. "I can't taste anything. Did you finally take a bath, grandson, I can't smell a thing either."

If the sky were really falling, we would be covered in sticky blue goo.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1305205506689003520

Israel’s average new cases right now are about double what the US was experiencing six weeks ago at our peak.

A bit lower but the point is correct.
Israel is in a horrible spot right now.

Fwiw certain States should shut down if things get worse, but on a national level we are nowhere near Israel (strange I’m saying that when about two and a half months ago it was the opposite)

[It’s so Joever]

As thousands of people are dying, the virus truthers are trying to go off on a tangent about whether or not Sturgis caused Covid.
Stop letting them shift the narrative, this is what they want. They want you to get into these side arguments and ignore the big picture.

The families of the deceased or the permanently disabled don’t care about whether some model is correct or not. We are still facing a catastrophe, and the truthers want you to ignore that.

It was Covid catastrophists such as yourself who were pushing a narrative that Orange Man supporting bikers were causing a superspreader event at Sturgis. After being infected, when they returned home they actually rode their Harleys into grandma's nursing home and coughed on her. "Taste some or your own medicine Granny", the Hells Angel hellion roared. "I can't taste anything. Did you finally take a bath, grandson, I can't smell a thing either."

If the sky were really falling, we would be covered in sticky blue goo.

This comment suggests stage four Magamania, which is currently not curable. All that can be done is to support the patient with palliative care as he slowly slips further into delirium.

Someday, we will find a cure.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 9/13 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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9/6: <Sunday>

• Cases: 6,460,250 (+29,098 | ΔW Change: ↓14.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
• Deaths: 193,250 (+432 | ΔW Change: ↑17.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

9/7: <M>

• Cases: 6,485,575 (+25,325 | ΔW Change: ↓34.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)
• Deaths: 193,534 (+284 | ΔW Change: ↓44.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.15%)

9/8: <T>

• Cases: 6,514,231 (+28,656 | ΔW Change: ↓37.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)
• Deaths: 194,032 (+498 | ΔW Change: ↓57.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.26%)

9/9: <W>

• Cases: 6,549,475 (+35,244 | ΔW Change: ↑6.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 195,239 (+1,207 | ΔW Change: ↑13.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

9/10: <Þ>

• Cases: 6,588,163 (+35,244 | ΔW Change: ↓20.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 196,328 (+1,089 | ΔW Change: ↓0.46% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

9/11: <F>

• Cases: 6,636,247 (+48,084 | ΔW Change: ↓10.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.73%)
• Deaths: 197,421 (+1,093 | ΔW Change: ↑3.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

9/12 (Yesterday): <S>

• Cases: 6,676,601 (+40,354 | ΔW Change: ↓4.14% | Σ Increase: ↑0.61%)
• Deaths: 198,128 (+707 | ΔW Change: ↑0.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

9/13 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 6,708,458 (+31,857 | ΔW Change: ↑9.48% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)
• Deaths: 198,520 (+392 | ΔW Change: ↓9.26% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Well here’s a weird theory that may explain the lower death rates in the past few months:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/face-masks-could-giving-people-covid-19-immunity-researchers/?fbclid=IwAR0z2sVoVRbaFS6uc62aeNHoGGmT9A1c_VpHZ_iBVc588UZ5ve_xYEgKGX0

I’ve felt for a while now that the inital advice of health experts NOT to wear masks may have been the biggest mistake of the entire course of the pandemic.  It would certainly be #1 if this theory turns out to be true.  If all of the lockdowns had simply been replaced with mask requirements, we could have save hundreds of thousands of lives as well as most of the economic damage.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Well here’s a weird theory that may explain the lower death rates in the past few months:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/face-masks-could-giving-people-covid-19-immunity-researchers/?fbclid=IwAR0z2sVoVRbaFS6uc62aeNHoGGmT9A1c_VpHZ_iBVc588UZ5ve_xYEgKGX0

I’ve felt for a while now that the inital advice of health experts NOT to wear masks may have been the biggest mistake of the entire course of the pandemic.  It would certainly be #1 if this theory turns out to be true.  If all of the lockdowns had simply been replaced with mask requirements, we could have save hundreds of thousands of lives as well as most of the economic damage.

There's at least one other very straightforward reason why not as many people are dying: Doctors are better at treating COVID-19 patients now.

[Silent Hunter]

Well here’s a weird theory that may explain the lower death rates in the past few months:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/face-masks-could-giving-people-covid-19-immunity-researchers/?fbclid=IwAR0z2sVoVRbaFS6uc62aeNHoGGmT9A1c_VpHZ_iBVc588UZ5ve_xYEgKGX0

I’ve felt for a while now that the inital advice of health experts NOT to wear masks may have been the biggest mistake of the entire course of the pandemic.  It would certainly be #1 if this theory turns out to be true.  If all of the lockdowns had simply been replaced with mask requirements, we could have save hundreds of thousands of lives as well as most of the economic damage.

That makes a sort of sense; even FFP2 masks will still let 5% of viral droplets through.