2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I believe that with VbM, Democrats are still up 10K in Washoe, so calm down everyone.

Its Panic at the Washoe time.


If the jittery mindset is this bad now, the next two weeks will be a heck of a ride.

[Roll Roons]

Also, Washoe voter registration is pretty much exactly evenly split between the two parties. A 15K lead was not going to hold, and reversion to the mean is expected.

[GroundHigh]

Nitpick time:

How hard can it be use commas to separate your numbers. Basic stuff we learned in 6th grade. Don't use that many numbers without commas.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I believe that with VbM, Democrats are still up 10K in Washoe, so calm down everyone.

Its Panic at the Washoe time.


If the jittery mindset is this bad now, the next two weeks will be a heck of a ride.

It's gonna reach a fever pitch after October 28.

I plan on avoiding the Presidential Poll board around that time. And at the rate discussion has been going tonight, perhaps this thread as well

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/freep/status/1318588806711382017?s=20

https://twitter.com/freep/status/1318564700150530049?s=20

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1318783340204482560

so like 6 million new votes today. 

[Stockdale for Veep]

Even if Trump wins, I now really want the Early v Election day difference to be 600K in Florida.

[GP270watch]

Hillary had a 250,000 lead before the election, and that was before VBM was politicized. Just saying.
The numbers simply don’t favor us.

 You are conflating your information. In 2016 Hillary(Democrats) was up by 96,450 by party ID, that's all we could know prior to Election Day. After Election Day when the vote was tabulated we could go back and see she actually entered Election Day with a real lead of nearly 250,000 votes and Trump ended up swinging that to win by 112,911.

Where are you getting the data for the early vote?

How Hillary Clinton lost Florida (Hint: It happened on Election Day)
 
 This is once the vote was counted, they were able to see the real vote breakdown of what Clinton got before Election Day. The 96k lead that Democrats had by Party ID (combo of mail-in, early voting) was actually a real vote lead of around 250,000.

 The final report showing the party ID for early voting and vote by mail:

https://dos.myflorida.com/media/697363/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2016-gen.pdf

 

[Non Swing Voter]

Even if Trump wins, I now really want the Early v Election day difference to be 600K in Florida.

At this point, it's basically all that matters.

[Adam Griffin]

If the averages from the past 9 days (since Day 1 of early in-person voting) were to hold over the next 11-12 days, Georgia:

• Would cast approximately 3,640,000 early votes, or 87.4% of its total 2016 vote
• Would reach 100% of its 2016 EV total this Friday
• Would cast approximately 1.5x the number of early ballots as in 2016

[GP270watch]

Even if Trump wins, I now really want the Early v Election day difference to be 600K in Florida.

At this point, it's basically all that matters.

We'll always remember the 600k who valiantly tried to end the disastrous Donald Trump presidency in the great battle state of Florida.

[Ferguson97]

Not sure how we've construed Democrats expanding their VBM lead in Florida into "Trump will win Florida"...

[Gass3268]

Not sure how we've construed Democrats expanding their VBM lead in Florida into "Trump will win Florida"...

There seems to be a mindset that In-Person Early Vote is worth more than a Mailed Vote.

[GP270watch]

Not sure how we've construed Democrats expanding their VBM lead in Florida into "Trump will win Florida"...

There seems to be a mindset that In-Person Early Vote is worth more than a Mailed Vote.

 That's not it exactly. There is going to be a wave of Republican votes coming and people should just prepare for that and it is also undeniable that an in-person vote is "worth" more because they are not subject to signature verification, missing "secrecy" envelope, undelivered ballot, no signature at all, etc. Democrats have always preferred in person for their early voting method. The pandemic and USPS chicanery flipped that. Nobody knows if it will actually make a difference but given the closeness of Florida elections it's not optimal. On the flipside turnout by VBM might be worth it if it turns out low propensity voters. Nobody really knows.
  

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Deeply deeply concerning.

I mean for republicans to catch up, it was bound to happen especially of alot of Dems go vbm. It's possible for some Dems to switch from vbm to in-person but it won't be done fully

Yea Im not really seeing where this is surprising or concerning

Look at predictit

Predictit is full of morons, and you can tell them that I said that.

Sir are you calling into question the expertise of disqus posters with names like “down with then (((establishment)))” with an avatar of Trump’s head on the god emperor from Warhammer 40k proclaiming Trump will win because of the 50 cent endorsement?

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/ChuckTranberg/status/1318780317998718976

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/ChuckTranberg/status/1318780317998718976

Ralston's getting a little feisty today. 

Not sure what any of his tweets have to do with Dems amassing a 600k lead in Florida though.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/ChuckTranberg/status/1318780317998718976

Ralston's getting a little feisty today. 

Not sure what any of his tweets have to do with Dems amassing a 600k lead in Florida though.

This is a thread on early voting/VBM.

[NOVA Green]

So, I figured it might be of interest for some to look at the EV numbers in Oregon (sure not as sexy as competitive states this cycle, but better than some of the random squabbling we've been seeing pop up here periodically in recent days).

For some perspective, let's look at the RV numbers from Nov '16 to Eligible RV by Party as of the Registration cut-off deadline:



DEM's hold roughly a 293k RV edge of PUBs as of 10/20, and actually gained an additional +24k lead since 11/18.

Non-Affiliated and 3rd Party voters have become the largest bloc of the RV since AVR through Department of Motor Vehicles starting in 2018, and it will be interesting to see what impact it may or may not play in a PRES Election Year.

Here is the data in a % of RV format:



I will spare a detailed County level breakdown on this thread at this point, and save some of that information for another thread, and instead call relevant data within a broader contextual narrative.

Let's start with a Cumulative Raw Total EV by Party REG Chart as of the OR SoS Update from 10/20/20 AM:

TOTAL VOTES CAST: 279,454 (9.5% of Total RVs) in just a few days of voting.



Now let's look at the Cumulative Partisan % Affiliation of all ballots returned to date:



Currently right now Registered Democrats account for a staggering 59% of TOT OR ballots cast to date, versus only 18% cast by Registered Republicans.

This will naturally change in coming days.

Still, let's look at the Total % of Votes Cast as of 10/20/20 AM by Partisan Registration:



Roughly 16.7% of Oregon Registered DEMs have already voted in Oregon, versus only a relatively small 6.7% of REG PUBs and 5.5% of REG OTHERs.

Now let's look at Today's Updates in terms of Total Raw Votes between 9/19 AM and 9/20 AM SoS numbers.

10/19 AM to 10/20 AM Updates:

Out of 191k Votes updated, DEMs added +69.2k Vote Margin into the bank, and PUBs fell behind OTHER RVs in Raw numbers.



Now let's look at the daily % breakdown between that same update period:



I'll jump back shortly with a few brief notes, but before anyone gets too excited Multnomah County is a major driver behind these extremely distorted EV numbers....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon Early Voting 2020 Notes and broad commentary:

1.) As an all VbM State, ballots are not sent out and do not arrive at all locations simultaneously and can vary from County to County and Municipality / Region.

2.) Oregon now has free postage provided, so ballot returns might be quicker depending upon one's location and accessibility to local County official Ballot Drop Boxes.

3.) The County Mailing schedule might well explain extremely low ballots received from Columbia, Josephine, and Yamhill Counties in particular, and quite possibly to some extent Clackamas County as well.

4.) The proximity to local County ballot drop boxes might also explain some of the numbers we are seeing in Republican strongholds like Coos and Linn Counties, and even to a lesser extent in Douglas, county, where DEMs are currently leading by wide margins in the former two and only slightly trailing in the latter.

Even in more heavily Republican Counties in Oregon, there are actually a significant number of Democrats in places like Coos Bay / North Bend, Albany, and Roseburg.

5.) I was a bit surprised by the extremely large DEM early numbers out of Multnomah County, considering there is a competitive Mayoral Election going on in Portland, so surprised to see so many voters up there have already made up their mind.

6.) It is also entirely plausible in Oregon that many voters of all affiliations are mulling over the ballot initiatives, but really we only have four on the ballot this year, because of the difficulty in getting signatures, that might be slowing down voters getting their ballots in.

7.) Early numbers from Marion County look troubling for PUBs this Year, and reinforce my opinion that the County will flip back DEM this Year, with Keizer sealing the deal.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

OMG how come none of yall are f#cking awake at 3:## am on a wednesday morning?!

[n1240]

NC 10/20, day 6 early in-person vote:

Dem 99618 (35.4%)
Rep 101656 (36.1%)
Una 80452 (28.6%)
Total 281726

compared to day 5 in 2016

Dem 70132 (44.4%)
Rep 48998 (31.1%)
Una 38531 (24.4%)
Total 157661

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 616933 (41.4%)
Rep 468767 (31.5%)
Una 403866 (27.1%)
Total 1489566

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 941926 (43.9%)
Rep 592220 (27.6%)
Una 613188 (28.6%)
Total 2147334

GOP gets their first single day early vote win in NC narrowly, but Dems still increase the total raw ballot lead slightly due to mail-in ballots

[wbrocks67]

I'm still trying to to figure out how Dems increasing their VBM lead and Reps only being slightly above them in in-person is supposed to be good for Reps in FL? The Dems have a f**king 500K lead among VBM, of course their likely not going to win many days in in-person.

[wbrocks67]

North Carolina is also impressive too - Dems still able to increase their overall raw total lead bc of such a strong VBM lead.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I believe that with VbM, Democrats are still up 10K in Washoe, so calm down everyone.

Its Panic at the Washoe time.


If the jittery mindset is this bad now, the next two weeks will be a heck of a ride.

It's gonna reach a fever pitch after October 28.

I plan on avoiding the Presidential Poll board around that time. And at the rate discussion has been going tonight, perhaps this thread as well

Noooo Monstro! That's when the fun truly gets started!