2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, hoping PA, MI, WI are able to at least start counting a few days in advance instead of just on ED. Would really spare us a possible nightmare.

[wbrocks67]

Has anyone seen any updates on PA? There hasn't been any reporting that I can find that says *when* the SC expects to rule on the ballot/green party issue. I would expect they would be doing it ASAP so they can get ballots out, but ...

[wbrocks67]

OK, update looks like Greens will likely get kicked off the ballot in PA.

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1306610433944674306

[wbrocks67]

Anyone who thinks this is gonna be a low turnout election is kidding themselves.

[wbrocks67]

That's amazing. Awful that they have to do that but they know at this point, it just needs to happen.

[wbrocks67]

My God! Here is the first bunch of returned absentee ballots from Madison, WI over the weekend.

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1308071891039662083?s=20

This is good news right? That means that they got them back relatively fast?

[wbrocks67]

The Pennsylvania secrecy ballot stuff is worrying.  The letter says 6% of ballots were rejected in previous elections for this reason alone, and that a higher share will be rejected this time around since there are more first-time voters.

If half of PA votes by mail and the VBM share is 70% D, 30% R, and 10% of ballots are rejected, that is a 2% swing in Trump's favor.  That could easily be enough to decide the election.

Hopefully the Biden campaign is ready to absolutely spam the airwaves with instructions on how to vote properly in Pennsylvania.  Get some hashtags going on social media as well.  Get celebrities to show the kiddies how to vote.  Send out physical media and put up billboards in the cities.

And make sure to not tell the rurals... they voted for these Republicans who actively want to disenfranchise voters, so it's only fair for them to be the first group disenfranchised.

IDK, I get that there were a good amount, but I voted by mail for the first time this year and it was NOT hard at all to do the whole thing. So if someone really can't figure out the ballot... like I don't wish for their vote not to be counted but c'mon man. It's not hard to figure it out.

[wbrocks67]

The Pennsylvania secrecy ballot stuff is worrying.  The letter says 6% of ballots were rejected in previous elections for this reason alone, and that a higher share will be rejected this time around since there are more first-time voters.

If half of PA votes by mail and the VBM share is 70% D, 30% R, and 10% of ballots are rejected, that is a 2% swing in Trump's favor.  That could easily be enough to decide the election.

Hopefully the Biden campaign is ready to absolutely spam the airwaves with instructions on how to vote properly in Pennsylvania.  Get some hashtags going on social media as well.  Get celebrities to show the kiddies how to vote.  Send out physical media and put up billboards in the cities.

And make sure to not tell the rurals... they voted for these Republicans who actively want to disenfranchise voters, so it's only fair for them to be the first group disenfranchised.

I think we should keep some facts in mind before jumping to the conclusion that this is yet another nefarious Republican plot to steal the election:

• The PA Supreme Court is 5-2 Dem and upheld the secrecy envelope requirement.
• The secrecy envelope is included in the mail ballot materials (see https://www.phillymag.com/news/2020/05/14/pennsylvania-mail-in-ballot-instructions/)
• Biden/the DNC/Mike Bloomberg/whoever is free to run ads reminding people that this is a requirement. Lisa Murkowski was able to get a plurality of Alaskan voters to write her in and spell her name correctly. It can't be that hard to get people to put a mail-in ballot in two envelopes.

Why is there no fat "Put your ballot in here before you return it" on the secrecy envelope? Pennsylvania is setting up its voters to fail here. It just says "Official Election Ballot"

Dude, come on. It's common sense here. Why would they send you the ballot with an envelope that says Official Election Ballot  if they didn't want you to put it in there?

[wbrocks67]

I still don't get why the Biden campaign didn't spend a bit of its money on educating voters how to mail correctly their ballots.  

They are. I just got a mailer the other day directly from Biden/Harris with an absentee request form and all the info on what you have to do to vote by mail. Wouldn't expect Dave Wasserman to know that since he just wants to traffic in hysterics and wild scenarios.

[wbrocks67]

I've voted by mail for years and I had no idea that putting the ballot in the secrecy envelope was required. I always did it and I suspect Washington is more lenient than Pennsylvania regardless, but it definitely isn't clear that it's not just "here's a thing to put your ballot in before it goes in the bigger envelope."

I mean, it doesn't really make sense to just send your ballot back by itself though? Especially if you are dropping it off at a dropbox or even mailing it back. You're not gonna dump the ballot into a drop box if it can easily be opened without being sealed in any way.

Like really, I don't see why anyone would think it wouldn't need to go into the envelope that literally says "Balot"

[wbrocks67]

Seems like the early vote numbers aren't increasing all that much lately.  When are large amounts of ballots/early votes expected to come in? 

I don't think most places update the #s daily

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1308875641320886272

Pretty incredible that any area has 11% turnout already just after what, a week?

[wbrocks67]

Tbf, Fall’s Church is the exact type of place that would have insanely high turnout this year.

so essentially confirmation that white college educated voters are VERY activated this year.

[wbrocks67]

I'd love to see some similar voter registration stats about Texas between now & 2016/2018 (Or even just this year)

Here ya go!

TX added 1.5 million new voters just since 2016.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/Texas-voter-registration-surges-trump-biden-record-15586286.php

[wbrocks67]

I'm sorry but I have to think such insane early voting has to help Democrats if it stays like this.  Even though the Falls Church voters would almost certainly vote on Election Day, you never know, a few might have something come up, etc.  This banks their votes now.  Plus the party doesn't have to worry about them and invest resources last minute on voters who have already turned out.  If a similar thing happens in Philly and its burbs I think that's a good sign.

We saw this in 2018.

Much of what we've seen so far with Dem intensity, early voting, general Dem polling averages for Biden/GCB (6-8) looks almost exactly like 2018.

[wbrocks67]

I'm sorry but I have to think such insane early voting has to help Democrats if it stays like this.  Even though the Falls Church voters would almost certainly vote on Election Day, you never know, a few might have something come up, etc.  This banks their votes now.  Plus the party doesn't have to worry about them and invest resources last minute on voters who have already turned out.  If a similar thing happens in Philly and its burbs I think that's a good sign.

Pennsylvania is unique among the swing states because it has no-excuse mail voting but no early in-person voting at all (other than dropping off a mail ballot that the voter already requested and was mailed).  Basically the opposite of Texas (highly restrictive mail voting with no COVID excuse, but long period of in-person early voting).  This is why the vagaries of mail voting in PA are getting so much scrutiny. 

That was true until this year - but many counties, at least in Philly/Southeast are opening satellite election offices to basically do pseudo "early voting" this year. I think the Philly ones open this week or next week

[wbrocks67]

I'm sorry but I have to think such insane early voting has to help Democrats if it stays like this.  Even though the Falls Church voters would almost certainly vote on Election Day, you never know, a few might have something come up, etc.  This banks their votes now.  Plus the party doesn't have to worry about them and invest resources last minute on voters who have already turned out.  If a similar thing happens in Philly and its burbs I think that's a good sign.

Pennsylvania is unique among the swing states because it has no-excuse mail voting but no early in-person voting at all (other than dropping off a mail ballot that the voter already requested and was mailed).  Basically the opposite of Texas (highly restrictive mail voting with no COVID excuse, but long period of in-person early voting).  This is why the vagaries of mail voting in PA are getting so much scrutiny. 

That was true until this year - but many counties, at least in Philly/Southeast are opening satellite election offices to basically do pseudo "early voting" this year. I think the Philly ones open this week or next week

The "all-in-one" absentee satellite offices haven't opened yet and are being challenged in court.

They are opening September 29th regardless: https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/philadelphia-early-voting-locations-2020-election-20200918.html

[wbrocks67]

I'm sorry but I have to think such insane early voting has to help Democrats if it stays like this.  Even though the Falls Church voters would almost certainly vote on Election Day, you never know, a few might have something come up, etc.  This banks their votes now.  Plus the party doesn't have to worry about them and invest resources last minute on voters who have already turned out.  If a similar thing happens in Philly and its burbs I think that's a good sign.

Pennsylvania is unique among the swing states because it has no-excuse mail voting but no early in-person voting at all (other than dropping off a mail ballot that the voter already requested and was mailed).  Basically the opposite of Texas (highly restrictive mail voting with no COVID excuse, but long period of in-person early voting).  This is why the vagaries of mail voting in PA are getting so much scrutiny. 

That was true until this year - but many counties, at least in Philly/Southeast are opening satellite election offices to basically do pseudo "early voting" this year. I think the Philly ones open this week or next week

The "all-in-one" absentee satellite offices haven't opened yet and are being challenged in court.

They are opening September 29th regardless: https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/philadelphia-early-voting-locations-2020-election-20200918.html

OK, looks promising.  If the whole thing happens under poll worker supervision, a lot of the high profile errors that could invalidate a ballot can be avoided.

The only thing I worry about pessimistically is that because these are new, that no one really knows about them. It would be really great if enough people utilized them, and I hope they do, but I fear many people don't realize they're even opening

[wbrocks67]

The early enthusiasm thing among Ds is universal.  In fast growing educated Dallas Co Iowa the absentee ballot requests are in the Ds favor 9856 to 5656.  In 2016 it was 6683 to 8141 in the Rs favor.  Now in part that is because the county has gone from a 7300 R voter advantage to a 3000 R voter advantage, but anyway you look at it, it's a big swing in enthusiasm at this point.

Yeah, I'm trying not to read too much into these results b/c this year is so much in flux, but the fact that Ds have such a *massive* advantage right now in the mail AND early vote total shows at the very least that enthusiasm is very high.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/stephanixmedina/status/1309119179610632193

what do they mean by "in dupage of all places"?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1309246909144539136

Just one day? I mean I guess it's better than nothing but at least 3 days would've been better

[wbrocks67]

Falls Church, VA up to 14.4% turnout.

This shows me that white college educated voters are substantially activated.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1309246909144539136

Guess the Republicans there don't want any part of Trump's steal the electors plan...

But Pennsylvania Republicans do... they're refusing to pass any legislation to let the ballot counting start earlier.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1309691664177549312?s=21

LOL so Republicans are allowed to still have their registration drives and door to door knocking BS but Democrats can't? Okay

[wbrocks67]

Philadelphia says they are sending ballots out starting this weekend, so people should start receiving them in the next week. Also, early in person voting starts in Philly + the suburban counties next week (or rather this upcoming week) as well.