2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[NOVA Green]

Aren't Overseas Military Absentee Votes the first to be mailed out, and we don't have any Stateside EV, and VbM's popping up anytime soon?

How many folk in NC are actually voting this early?

Makes the Atlas throbbing looking a bit like Dixville Notch, NH.... IMHO...

Who is actually getting ballots in NC this Week or the next?

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1304519053076246534

This is like a weight lifted off my shoulders

My concern with new VbM States is less than TO related issues, but more that ballots will get rejected on "technicalities" such as invalid matching sigs, not properly signing nor sealing ballots, etc...

Something like 10% of DEM KY-SEN ballots were rejected in the largest County because of invalid VbM "technicalities"...

Sure we know how to roll with this in places like OR, WA, CA, AK, HI, CO, UT, AZ, etc....

What about the new VbM places in the era of COVID-19???

Hoping Team Biden and State DEM Parties are putting $$$ into education about VbM within those States / Voters not familiar with how it rolls for those not initiated....

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1304875346697818114

Shouldn't this be cross-posted in the Voter Suppression thread?



What are NC's laws regarding voter notification / challenge options in the event that their votes are rejected?

Looks like the Black & Brown Brothers and Sisters ballots are getting chucked out at an alarming rate thus far....

[NOVA Green]

Got my absentee ballot today in Idaho. Voted straight DEM across the board and will return my ballot in person at the election office. Our system is pretty safe but this is not an election where I will take risks.

Excellent!

Welcome to the forum!

[NOVA Green]

Got my absentee ballot today in Idaho. Voted straight DEM across the board and will return my ballot in person at the election office. Our system is pretty safe but this is not an election where I will take risks.

Excellent!

Welcome to the forum!

We need more posters from under-represented States and places within the US...

Your sig indicates Twin Falls, which I haven't been to in about 20-25 Years, but remembers as always hot and dusty (but could just be that the majority of 20+ cross-Country Road Trips through Twin Falls tended to be in the early Summer / early Fall)....

How do you see Trump performing in places like Nampa, Idaho and even Twin Falls, Idaho in 2020?

Send me a PM if interested in precinct level data /sources from ID, since it's one of those States which frequently falls completely off the radar, even on Atlas..... 

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7506361#msg7506361

To go back slightly on-topic, OR ballots aren't supposed to be mailed out until October 13th (Which is about normal for OR, typically 2 Weeks before the Election and our voter pamphlet usually comes about a Week or so before so we can review ballot measures, non-partisan elections (Judges, Mayors, etc...)... but we will be getting our ballots in ASAP after being received and delivered in person to the drop-box by the County Courthouse in our Down-State Oregon Trump Country County....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon as the first 100% VbM State is clearly behind the times here... starting to get jealous of all y'alls...

Believe out ballots won't be mailed out until around 10/13 (Presumably exceptions for Military Ballots and Americans living overseas)...

That being said our ballot drop boxes are all over the place, and literally someone could drop a match through the mail-box slot and it wouldn't even destroy a single ballot!

Obviously "unsolicited ballots" are and have always been a major problem in Oregon....   

[NOVA Green]

Extremely interesting discussion regarding FL early voting from many Atlas Members...

If anybody could help pull some these numbers in visual Table, Chart, Graph, Maps etc would be greatly appreciated....

Florida---One of only Four States of the US that I have never been too, and we have all sorts of random stuff being thrown around without any real Political Science level of analysis...

Not too hard to export data, run a few queries, create pivot tables in Excel and even through in a power-point slide...

Exporting to precinct maps likely trickier....

After all in 2020 we have truly entered a virtual "Twilight Zone World", after early signals from 2016....

"Discuss With Maps" used to be a classic Atlas Meme, but at the same time I would like to see Excel Tables and maps to help truly explain what is really going on for those of us w/o any real understanding of the subtleties of Florida Politics....

Thanks....

[NOVA Green]

Still not sure why exactly Dems need a 600K early vote advantage in Florida but doesn't it seem like they are on track to get it?  Their advantage is growing like 30K a day and there's almost nothing in from Orange and Miami Dade.

Really we need some Atlas gurus who can run SPC software on all this to create statistical modelling variables, which is one of the tools which Engineers regularly use in the Factory I work at....

Still--- all traditional Political Science and Statistical modelling is totally thrown out the window this GE, but pretty sure the software can handle it assuming enough raw data and ability to convert that into probabilities and statistics....

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1312971195537649664?s=21

I called this out when it came to the KY DEM PRIM...

DEM ballots getting overwhelmingly tossed in the waste basket with shifts towards Vote-By-Mail.

[NOVA Green]

We just got our Oregon Voters' Pamphlet in the mail from the SoS a few days back...

For everyone not aware every Registered Voter gets one in the mail for every election within their jurisdictions which provides everything from general voting information, Party Platform statements, ballot initiative measures in full including arguments "for and against", Political Candidate Statements, etc...

Our specific Voters Pamphlet is about 160-170 pages, and I plan on reading the whole thing before our ballots arrive on schedule and on time through the USPS.

Oregon VbM ballots are scheduled to be mailed out 10/13 to all Registered Voters within OR, so once me and my spouse receive ours we will fill them out ASAP and drop them off at the closest ballot drop-box, which is less than a 10 Minute Drive from where we live.

The most difficult ones are always the Non-Partisan races including Judicial, Municipal, and County elected offices since it takes a bit more time to read through to figure out what they really stand for, especially living in a heavily Trump County.

[NOVA Green]

Republicans are the enemy of the people.

Should Biden and Dems win big, the first thing they need to do is pack the Supreme Court and pass a significant election reform package, with automatic voter registration, same day registration, a national election results page, a precinct for every 400 voters within walking distance, expansion of mail-in and drop off locations, de-politification of the postal service and proper funding and a lot more.

My response on another thread:

"I agree with your fundamental statement regarding TX & GA and voter suppression, when it comes to equal access to voting.

In terms of your self-quote from a few hours previously, I generally agree when it comes passing a significant election reform package, including AVR, Same Day Registration, expansion of mail-in and drop-off locations, and maintaining the integrity of the USPS when it comes to delivery ballots to the Citizens equally in every State, County, & Municipality, as well as ensuring that there are not inequalities when it comes to ballots getting delivered in a timely fashion to local election authorities.

That being said:

1.) Oregon has AVR (Meaning within a Statewide context,  that every American Citizen who has any contact with the DMV, is automatically registered to vote, unless they choose to "opt-out".

If they "opt-in" they do not need select a Party Registration, but can certainly choose to do so, and if they don't select a party registration, are automatically registered as a "Non-Party Affiliated" voter.

2.) Oregon is also a Universal VbM State (Humbly speaking as an Oregonian, the first in the Nation to adopt VbM), so basically your ballot gets sent to your mailing address on file.

3.) We also have official mail drop-ballot boxes located conveniently throughout places both City and Rural Areas, so that folks don't have to worry about having a postage stamp floating around in their pockets.

4.) Part of your statement is perhaps somewhat irrelevant when it comes to enhancing universal voting, such as "packing the Supreme Court", which to many might be considered a separate issue from the whole Voting Rights scene.  After all in many cases these are State and District Courts, rather than the Supreme Court making these decisions.

5.) "A precinct for every 400 voters within walking distance" sounds a bit ludicrous, if I am reading your statement at face value.

There are many places within the United States, both within City / Suburbs / Rurals, where this is simply not feasible.

This would create a massive expansion of precincts within the US the likes of which we have never seen, and we would end up with 10,000s of additional precincts with simply 1-2 total voters.

Perhaps you are suggesting that population density should allow for increased numbers of in-person voting precincts?

I think that is the direction you're going here, although (400) voters for every precinct within walking district had me scratching my head, since population density levels, even in larger urban/suburban parts of America are much less so than in many European Countries.

6.) I do have some concerns regarding the "national elections result reporting page", since quite frankly one of the strengths of the American electoral results systems when it comes to foreign hacking, etc has been the decentralized nature of our election reporting systems.

I spent at least (20) Hours going through precinct results from OH in the '04 GE, when I was a younger guy, because a roommate of mine was claiming the voter-hacking from Diebold systems was the reason that Kerry lost in '04!"

[NOVA Green]

Day 1 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM)


HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:    87,659      4.4%
2016:  129,014      5.8%
2018:  115,601      4.9%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   48,877       4.2%
2016:   80,301       6.2%
2018:   81,723       6.1%

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)
2012:   52,225       5.4%
2016:   65,156       6.1%
2018:   62,971       5.6%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   37,616       4.1%
2016:   52,712       5.0%
2018:   45,170       4.1%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:   20,935       3.3%
2016:   46,086       6.4%
2018:   47,405       6.1%

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   21,035       4.6%
2016:   36,719       6.8%
2018:   42,511       7.3%

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   16,230       4.2%
2016:   21,994       4.7%
2018:   24,694       5.0%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:      9465       2.5%
2016:   19,458       4.5%
2018:   23,449       5.1%

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:   12,410       4.9%
2016:   24,214       8.1%
2018:   23,496       7.1%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:   13,831       4.5%
2016:   23,458       6.9%
2018:   19,650       5.4%

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:      7310       3.8%
2016:   10,231       5.1%
2018:   12,064       5.9%

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:      4810       2.7%
2016:      8401       4.3%
2018:      9223       4.5%

I like what you are doing here Monstro.... keep it up.

[NOVA Green]

Harris County turnout numbers are making me proud to be a Houstonian today.

I can tell you that Houston has a huge anti-incumbent bias, small sizable swings against incumbents in a lot of elections.

As a former Harris County resident, I second the statement.

Extremely high turnout in Harris County, will also likely equate with high turnout of working-class Latino voters, who next to African-American voters, are the most solidly Democratic voting block in Tejas, and are less likely to turn out in high numbers in mid-term elections than PRES General Elections.

I'll be greedy and take both high turnout as well as high net raw votes AND % vote margins from Harris Count--- please if you don't mind.

[NOVA Green]

Maricopa
New update:
All: 169739  Dem: 78333  Rep: 53436 Other: 37970
Dem: 46.1  Rep: 31.5 Other: 22.4

Is that good for Dems or expected?

It all depends upon where the votes are coming from.

I recall doing quite a bit of work tracking the CD-08 Special Election and looking at the incoming VbMs totals by place and party REG on a daily basis.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=287204.msg6163232#msg6163232

There might be other Atlas threads that discuss VbM TO by day in Arizona either at a statewide or District Level, which someone could point towards?

Haven't really taken a peak, but AZ might actually have some archived data of vote by day by party REG to compare against (just like Oregon), since AZ has been essentially a heavily VbM State for years as well?

I would imagine that if Maricopa County is breaking hard DEM (Which is in alignment with what both recent polling data suggests, that non-aligned voters will actually tend to vote DEM>REP by respectable % margins).

Also in Maricopa County in 2020, I would not be surprised a significant higher rate of PUB defection to Biden than Biden voters to Trump.

Just did a recon at the Maricopa County Elections dpt and couldn't easily locate any ballot return files or documentation, but wasn't searching that hard...

[NOVA Green]

I wonder if Montgomery County could see some pretty large swings to Biden this year. My county (Forsyth) in GA seems pretty similar (outer suburban, large planned communities similar to the Woodlands) and has a large contingent of Trump'16 voters defecting to Biden this year.

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:   15,021       5.7%
2016:   20,432       6.6%
2018:   20,158       6.0%
2020:   20,874       5.7%

LOL, one of the counties showing no bump is one of the Republican bastions of the state. They'd better hope the voters show up on Election Day now that the rest of Texas is becoming a functioning democracy for the first time.

Hi Forsythvoter--- and belated welcome to the Forum!

Not totally in a position to do a complete compare / contrast analysis between both Counties as part of a Senior Project or Grad School Paper.

Still, having lived in NW Harris County for 4-5 Years, places like Magnolia, TX was just right down the road, drop over to Spring (No Prob), The Woodlands fun place to always visit with co-workers and friends that lived all around the area way back roughly from '12> '15, this naturally attracted my attention, and might at least be able to speak a bit on your original question.

Naturally, in order to more properly examine an extremely fast-growing place such as Montgomery County (9th fastest growing in TX by POP and/or % Increase), we must first examine where the voters reside.

The Woodlands gets a lot of sex appeal, as perhaps it is the most well known Community within Montgomery County, because of it's location along I-45, a major Music Venue, where me and my wife saw Black Sabbath reunited back in the early / Mid 2010s, awesome place where "The Villages" was essentially part of a decentralized structure of Municipal Government, and honestly had we been planning in staying in Texas for longer, while well have forked over the $$$ to buy a condo or rent an apartment and deal with the long commutes down the SH's.

Still only one joint in a sprawling county with about 600k residents... almost large enough to get it's own CD if you follow Oregon style districting laws...

Let's just briefly attempt to break down the vote by vote share by place looking at the 2016 GE PRES results and raw votes.



Now let's look at it from a % by Place Scenario:



These numbers are potentially devastating for DEMs in one the fastest growing counties in Texas...

PUB's grabbing a +100k Raw Vote Margin, not gonna be good, especially if low turnout elsewhere within Metro H-Town / Space City...

Still, maybe we have some good numbers from 2018 to help us continue our rush caused by the '18 GE-TX-SEN numbers?

Here are the Raw Vote Numbers by Place in Montgomery County Texas for US SEN in 2018:



Naturally, we also need to look at this in terms of % of the Vote for the 2018 SEN Election:



So... maybe potentially some good news for DEMs to cut down PUB margins in Montgomery County significantly, but Cruz holding virtually steady in The Woodlands in '18, and only dropping a few points in the Montgomery County areas around Spring, do not indicate a massive DEM swing here in 2020, unless Biden ends up winning Texas.

Sure the numbers from Magnolia zip codes might suggest some hope for DEMs in 2020 PRES & SEN swings, and help shave a few % off the margins.

Montgomery Area, not sure how many of y'all ever been out there, but +15k Trump>HRC and +15k Cruz>Beto with roughly 68% GE PRES Margins in '16 and +67% PUB Margins in '18, doesn't really look like we will see massive swings, despite COVID and Biden increase support levels among White Catholics and White Evangelicals...

ExtremeRepublican might have some interesting perspectives with compare/contrast, since Montgomery County might perhaps be somewhat similar to Williamson County, TN, which perhaps might even be more portable when it comes to places like Forsyth County, Georgia.

[NOVA Green]

@Monstro: are you still doing the major county updates? Those were outstanding. Also, how is rural turnout compared to 2016, is it about even or is it significantly up?

I am! Sorry, haven't been able to sit down long enough to put the numbers in. I'll be gathering the Day 2 numbers now.

I'm not sure how to get the complete 2016 early numbers. The Texas elections site only provides early votes from the most populated ~20 counties for that year and 2018. And, to be honest, I don't want to spend hours scavenging across 250 county sites! The lack of county reporting is also why I can't find statewide early votes for 2016/2018

So although I don't have a complete list, the 2016 TX Precinct dataset that I use does have Early vs Eday breakdowns for 132/246 Counties in Texas.

I could even pivot them to do breakdown by Office and vote by Candidate, but this might not be the best location to do so.

So here are the Early Votes for US-PRES in 2016 for those Counties, in a series of screenshots (So many darn counties in TX!). I'm pretty sure some of these Counties might have EV data available from other sources, but yeah totally dig not wanting to trawl through each and every county of which many don't even report detailed election data.

I'm pretty sure my 2018 TX precinct data-set also has Early Vote totals for many counties as well, if anyone is interested.

Deleting the original screenshots, looks like I need to add an extra filter to my pivot table, since I believe it was sweeping County Totals as well into the totals, will modify once I can correct the data.

[NOVA Green]

Okay--- NOVA back.

So pulling data for every single precinct in Texas, for all major elections can inherently create issues when it comes to over 300k individual records in the 2nd largest State in the Union, especially when it comes to individual contributors to the project not always consistently using the  same types of naming conventions, queries, etc...

I believed I identified the major source of the error, because of how some of the original data sources queried had a "Total" value set up in the precinct column, creating a few inaccurate county results.

Unfortunately, there are a few secondary issues which I need to address before publishing the 2016 GE EV numbers by County.

Just got off work a few hours ago at the Factory, so not going to spend more time tonight on db mgmt. but will try to review Tomorrow.

Monstro--- PM me if you want some of these data sources Tomorrow, since I might not be able to sort everything out until this Weekend.

NOVA

[NOVA Green]

If anyone is interested, I can post the 2016 EV vs ED numbers by County for over 50% of the Counties in TX, and even break those numbers down further by GE-PRES numbers.

Don't want to waste my time on that if there is no interest.

[NOVA Green]

If anyone is interested, I can post the 2016 EV vs ED numbers by County for over 50% of the Counties in TX, and even break those numbers down further by GE-PRES numbers.

Don't want to waste my time on that if there is no interest.

Okay... so I went through and ran the numbers of EV vs ED for the (130) Counties in TX on my precinct database which break down votes by those categories.

So if anyone wants to track EV % numbers in '20 as a % of '16, this might be a useful reference.

I needed to do a little bit of cleanup, since the query was including some County totals into the precinct column label field... so if you spot something that looks off, please ping me in case I missed something when running the data validation.

Also note, this is for the US-PRES Election only, and for some counties may include undervotes and overvotes within the totals, and some may include all of the minor party candidates / WIs and some may only include the top four (DEM, PUB, LBT, & GRN).

I can take requests to pull EV vs ED for counties upon request, but because of different labelling conventions, I elected not to do so at this time as part of this list.

Also, there is likely additional county numbers out there elsewhere, but because it was not part of the dataset that I was running the numbers off of was beyond scope at this time.

I'll try to do something similar with the 2018 TX-SEN numbers, when I get a moment.

[NOVA Green]

So I spotted an issue with Denton County in my 2016 EV vs ED numbers which was caused by ED votes creating faulty subtotals for multiple candidates.

It has now been updated in my OP of EV vs ED breakdown charts posted upthread.

Meanwhile if we look at EV vs ED Patterns in Denton County, TX we see something like the following (Including Undervotes and Overvotes) and consolidated EVs and Absentees:

2016: TOTAL EV- 243,054   (80.3%)
2016: TOTAL ED-  59,781    (19.7%)

2016: TOTAL DEM EV-   87,967  (36.7%)
2016: TOTAL PUB EV-  139,906  (58.3%)
2016: TOTAL MISC EV-  12,195  ( 5.0%)

2016: TOTAL DEM ED-   22,923  (39.1%)
2016: TOTAL PUB ED-    30,697  (52.3%)
2016: TOTAL MISC ED-    5,047  ( 8.6%)

2018: TOTAL EV- 231,665   (78.3%)
2018: TOTAL ED-  64,147    (21.7%)

2016: TOTAL DEM EV-   103,773 (44.8%)
2016: TOTAL PUB EV-    126,408  (54.6%)
2016: TOTAL MISC EV-      1,474  (0.6%)

2018: TOTAL DEM ED-   30,876  (48.1%)
2018: TOTAL PUB ED-    32,336  (50.4%)
2018: TOTAL MISC ED-       935  ( 1.5%)

Now--- not totally sure how this will relate to the 2020 GE in Denton County TX, but traditionally it appears to be a place where Republicans have tended to perform better on Early Voting and Democrats have tended to perform better on Election date votes...

In fact DEM ED votes increased dramatically between '16 and '18, somewhere in order of a 130%+ of their total numbers between both GEs.

[NOVA Green]

No, I am not ignoring TargetSmart...

TEXAS EARLY VOTE

Total Ballots Cast: 3,199,795

REPUBLICANS 1,620,479 (50.6 %)

DEMOCRATS 1,311,356 (41.0 %)

INDEPENDENTS 267,960 (8.4 %)

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html?view_type=State&demo=Modeled%20Party&demo_val=All&state=TX

Biden winning Texas is a "Pipe Dream" for him!

Here is the solution to resolve the "pipe dream scenario".

Out of your element Donny....

[NOVA Green]

Still waiting for the Oregon Secretary of State to start posting daily ballot returns by County / Party.

However it appears that Multnomah County (Portland and East County Suburbs) is well outpacing 2016 early turnout numbers.

This is a Democratic stronghold County with only 11.4% of the voters Registered Republican as of September 2020.

Early voting that has shattered records nationwide seems to be playing out in Multnomah County, where more than 59,000 ballots had been returned through Saturday, three days after they were mailed out. That’s the equivalent to 10.44% of registered voters.

That’s a faster pace than in 2016′s presidential election, when it took six days to reach equivalent numbers, both in percentage terms and absolute numbers.

“The very early turnout seems to match what we’re seeing across the country,” said Jim Moore, a political scientist at Pacific University. “The turnout looks like it’s about 30% ahead of where it was in 2016. That leads me to believe we’re going to have a record turnout in the number of voters, though maybe not the percentage of voters.”

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2020/10/early-voting-turnout-running-ahead-of-2016-in-multnomah-county-mirroring-national-trends.html

[NOVA Green]

https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/statistics/Unofficial-Daily-Ballot-Returns-10-19-2020.pdf

Oregon

Thanks Rep Jessica!

They used to post it prominently on the front page, so I guess I was lazy and didn't look hard enough.

Much appreciated!!!

[NOVA Green]

Really curious what the numbers are for the other counties in Monstro’s daily posts. I’m excited as hell!

I may add some line graphs as well to the update since we are thru the first week

Hi Monstro...

Sounds totally awesome.

Here are the 2018 TX GE SEN EV vs ED Votes by County for my '18 TX Precinct Data Set (Missing some Counties but looks like this query grab has 189/254 for EV vs ED Raw Vote numbers):

Can't run down all of the data by Partisan Vote yet, and all y'alls please let me know if you see a data gap.

Monstro: Please PM me, if you want to help crunch some of these numbers as part of your project.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon is naturally not a state in contention in 2020 at the Presidential Level, let alone the US-SEN Races, although perhaps PUBs might be able to pull off a stealth upset in CD-04 (Questionable but side topic), or even be able to hold the OR-SoS Office (Questionable but side topic).

I will not mention nor delve into potential State House and State Senate Elections on the line in this particular thread.

Still...

Oregon was just rated the easiest State to vote in within the entire United States:

Voting is easier in Oregon than any other state in the nation, according to the latest analysis by a team of political scientists tracking the issue.

“Oregon, which has one of the most progressive automatic voter registration processes and mail-in voting, maintains the first position as the easiest state in which to vote,” the researchers wrote in a summary of their findings published online ahead of publication in a scholarly journal.

The other top states for ease of voting are Washington, Utah, Illinois and Maryland. Oregon, Utah and Washington all have permanent vote-by-mail processes.

Political scientists Scot Schraufnagel of Northern Illinois University, Michael J. Pomante II of Jacksonville University and Quan Li of Wuhan University in China maintain an index of how easy or difficult it is for Americans to register to vote and cast a ballot. They last ranked states by their “cost of voting index” in 2016.

https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2020/10/oregon-is-the-easiest-state-in-the-nation-to-vote-in-new-analysis-finds.html

What does this mean in?

1.) Oregon was the first State in Union to adopt Universal Vote-by-Mail (VbM). I was initially skeptical way back in the late '90s, because I liked the rituals of standing in line at my local voting precinct, as well as the potential confusions caused by the "new rules".

Still, it made it so much easier for Seniors and remote rural residents, as well as younger folks, those living in the cities, to be able to ensure that we could vote regardless of drive-time to in-person precincts, shift schedules, but still it took some time for me to adjust since mailing addresses change and getting the right ballot at your address and updating everything was a bit confusing at first.

2.) The expansion of VbM to include Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) through the state Department of Voter Vehicles (DMV), with an opt-out clause for any interaction with the DMV created a surge of "New Registered Voters" in OR, with Non-Affiliated-Voter (NAV) as the default in the event of not selecting to "opt out".

3.) This has created a surge of new voters in Oregon between 2016 and 2020, well beyond natural eligible voting population within the State.

@ Virginia: Believe you asked me a question about this some 3-5 Years back.

4.) OR has gone from 2016 to 2020 in the following:

    A.) 2016:   2,568,872 Registered Voters--- 980.9k DEM (38.2%), 689k PUB (27.8%), 873k MISC (34.0%).

   B.) 2018:   2,751,512  RV---  977.7k DEM (35.5%), 708.1k PUB (25.7%), 1,066k MISC (38.8%)

   C.) 2020:   2,950,429  RV---  1,055k DEM (35.7%), 760.8k PUB (25.8%), 1,135k MISC  (38.5%)

5.) More to come as we continue to see OR results roll in, but thus far OR EV is heavily DEM, mainly because of large early dumps from Multnomah County.