2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread  (Read 168173 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2250 on: October 20, 2020, 06:50:00 PM »
Could we reach 5 million today?
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philly09
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« Reply #2251 on: October 20, 2020, 06:59:10 PM »
Just a hair under 36 Million votes. 10 million votes away from breaking the record.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2252 on: October 20, 2020, 07:04:48 PM »
Quote from: SenatorCouzens on October 20, 2020, 06:23:58 PM
Just a reminder, Steve Schale, analyzing the early vote, predicted Democrats would win the big races in Florida in 2014, 2016, and 2018. So be careful with his analysis.

What I remember from 2016 was his posting angstily about Democrats holding onto their absentee ballots and not sending them in.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2253 on: October 20, 2020, 07:06:01 PM »

There just can’t be that many left after so many years. The Panhandle is less than 10% of the state’s population and the smallest counties haven’t started in person voting.
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xavier110
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« Reply #2254 on: October 20, 2020, 07:07:13 PM »
Quote from: kph14 on October 20, 2020, 04:22:35 PM
Quote from: xavier110 on October 20, 2020, 03:57:39 PM
Quote from: Xing on October 20, 2020, 03:48:56 PM
Turnout among Dems is still strong in AZ: https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

Statewide:
Democrats 370,045
Republicans 276,305
Other 192,310

Maricopa:
Democrats 281,525
Republicans 218,631
Other 154,484

Yeah AZ is looking good. Even in 2018 Ds never had a lead like this. And they started counting today (online, it says our ballots were counted).

Personally I think this underestimates the Democratic lead. It has Pima (Tucson) at around 91,000 returned. This article from 3 days ago (!) had the returned ballots at already 197,000.

https://www.kold.com/2020/10/18/record-number-early-ballots-returned-pima-county/

Yep. Numbers just grew.

Total Ballots: 938k
D: 421k
R: 303k
I: 213k
Turnout: 22%
Party Adv: +118k Dem

Pretty noots.
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philly09
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« Reply #2255 on: October 20, 2020, 07:08:05 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on October 20, 2020, 07:04:48 PM
Quote from: SenatorCouzens on October 20, 2020, 06:23:58 PM
Just a reminder, Steve Schale, analyzing the early vote, predicted Democrats would win the big races in Florida in 2014, 2016, and 2018. So be careful with his analysis.

What I remember from 2016 was his posting angstily about Democrats holding onto their absentee ballots and not sending them in.

You could do a Twitter "Advanced Search" and look at his tweets from that time period.
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philly09
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« Reply #2256 on: October 20, 2020, 07:09:11 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on October 20, 2020, 07:06:01 PM

There just can’t be that many left after so many years. The Panhandle is less than 10% of the state’s population and the smallest counties haven’t started in person voting.

Escambia, Oscoloosa, and Bay counties are fairly populous, are they not?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2257 on: October 20, 2020, 07:38:15 PM »
Wow, AZ is looking quite great for Dems so far.
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philly09
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« Reply #2258 on: October 20, 2020, 07:42:05 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 20, 2020, 07:38:15 PM
Wow, AZ is looking quite great for Dems so far.

Did Jen O'Malley Dillon let it slip last week that Biden pretty much has AZ in the bag?
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kph14
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« Reply #2259 on: October 20, 2020, 07:58:55 PM »
As we are talking about crazy high turnout:

Iowa's registered Democrats have returned 304,351 ballots (76.4%), which is 44.1% of all registered Democrats
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #2260 on: October 20, 2020, 08:06:51 PM »
Quote from: philly09 on October 20, 2020, 07:42:05 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 20, 2020, 07:38:15 PM
Wow, AZ is looking quite great for Dems so far.

Did Jen O'Malley Dillon let it slip last week that Biden pretty much has AZ in the bag?

howso?
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philly09
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« Reply #2261 on: October 20, 2020, 08:08:05 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 20, 2020, 08:06:51 PM
Quote from: philly09 on October 20, 2020, 07:42:05 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 20, 2020, 07:38:15 PM
Wow, AZ is looking quite great for Dems so far.

Did Jen O'Malley Dillon let it slip last week that Biden pretty much has AZ in the bag?

howso?

She said something to the effect of "We're positive that we're going to win Arizona".
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2262 on: October 20, 2020, 08:12:01 PM »
Quote from: philly09 on October 20, 2020, 07:09:11 PM
Quote from: Brittain33 on October 20, 2020, 07:06:01 PM

There just can’t be that many left after so many years. The Panhandle is less than 10% of the state’s population and the smallest counties haven’t started in person voting.

Escambia, Oscoloosa, and Bay counties are fairly populous, are they not?

They’re not tiny, but together they have less than the population of 1 congressional district. I think of the Panhandle having 2 congressional districts out of 27.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #2263 on: October 20, 2020, 08:12:28 PM »
Quote from: philly09 on October 20, 2020, 08:08:05 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 20, 2020, 08:06:51 PM
Quote from: philly09 on October 20, 2020, 07:42:05 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 20, 2020, 07:38:15 PM
Wow, AZ is looking quite great for Dems so far.

Did Jen O'Malley Dillon let it slip last week that Biden pretty much has AZ in the bag?

howso?

She said something to the effect of "We're positive that we're going to win Arizona".

Link on an internal call or something?
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #2264 on: October 20, 2020, 08:14:43 PM »
Quote from: philly09 on October 20, 2020, 07:09:11 PM
Quote from: Brittain33 on October 20, 2020, 07:06:01 PM

There just can’t be that many left after so many years. The Panhandle is less than 10% of the state’s population and the smallest counties haven’t started in person voting.

Escambia, Oscoloosa, and Bay counties are fairly populous, are they not?
They aren’t small, but the rest of Florida is huge in population.
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philly09
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« Reply #2265 on: October 20, 2020, 08:15:29 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 20, 2020, 08:12:28 PM
Quote from: philly09 on October 20, 2020, 08:08:05 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 20, 2020, 08:06:51 PM
Quote from: philly09 on October 20, 2020, 07:42:05 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 20, 2020, 07:38:15 PM
Wow, AZ is looking quite great for Dems so far.

Did Jen O'Malley Dillon let it slip last week that Biden pretty much has AZ in the bag?

howso?

She said something to the effect of "We're positive that we're going to win Arizona".

Link on an internal call or something?

It was the thread about her saying that the polls were inflated and Biden wasn't leading by double digits. Most think it was just a morale booster.
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philly09
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« Reply #2266 on: October 20, 2020, 08:17:59 PM »
37.1 Million votes, thanks to updates in AZ, CO, OR, WA, and WV, with a second update from TX.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #2267 on: October 20, 2020, 08:19:22 PM »

I think we are going to get OVER 50 million this week.  My prediction is like 55 million.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2268 on: October 20, 2020, 08:22:20 PM »
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philly09
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« Reply #2269 on: October 20, 2020, 08:24:13 PM »
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 20, 2020, 08:22:20 PM


Almost at a million! Keep it coming.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #2270 on: October 20, 2020, 08:25:38 PM »

From 55% to 61% of 2016's vote total in a day
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The Mikado
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« Reply #2271 on: October 20, 2020, 08:26:37 PM »


If these really are Biden's internals, overconfidence in AZ is, well, overconfident.
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walleye26
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« Reply #2272 on: October 20, 2020, 08:26:58 PM »
Any info from Dallas or Bexar counties today?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2273 on: October 20, 2020, 08:28:04 PM »
Quote from: walleye26 on October 20, 2020, 08:26:58 PM
Any info from Dallas or Bexar counties today?

idk about bexar, I havent seen anything from Dallas since this
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #2274 on: October 20, 2020, 08:30:11 PM »


Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance
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