2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Adam Griffin]

NC absentee ballot request data by day (cumulative) can be found here.

As of 9/1, 591,379 ballots have been requested:
53% Democratic
31% Unaffiliated
16% Republican

[Adam Griffin]

How are these numbers generated, by the way?  Are they demographic/location-based estimates or do people have to state their party when they request a ballot, and then their names are listed and their voting patterns can be looked up?

Tom Bonier/TargetSmart is a voter modelling company. As such, the numbers he's pumping out may very well be TargetSmart's modeled projections based on voter file data and the like. The NC numbers I provided are actual breakdowns based on the chosen party of voters in their state voter registrations.

Maine as one example seems iffy at first glance: 90% of ballot requests being D/R when it's only 69% in North Carolina? Surely that's modeling given NC has closed primaries and ME's "independent" streak.

[Adam Griffin]

Another question: how common are Demosaurs in NC?

Quite. In terms of registered Democrats who are likely or guaranteed to vote R in presidentials, somewhere in the 5-7% range of all voters depending on the election.

[Adam Griffin]

Forbes: When Swing States Will Begin Counting Mail Ballots

Some of their information (such as for GA) was actually incorrect and some (for TX) was incomplete. I've checked as best as possible to verify that each state's status here is in fact accurate.

States can begin counting votes...

22 days before Election Day: Florida

14-15 days before Election Day: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina

12 days before Election Day: Texas (counties with >100k people)

4 days before Election Day: Texas (counties with <100k people)

On Election Day: Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

Unclear: Ohio

DISCLAIMER: Also, here is a separate map that may or may not be up-to-date or directly referencing the counting of ballots. For example, "processing" in some states under normal circumstances simply means opening the outer envelope to simplify the Election Day counting procedure.

[Adam Griffin]

So with Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina counting early we should have an idea of who won on Election Night?

Maybe, maybe not. I'm not sure if any of the non-GA states had these policies as SOP prior to 2020, or if they were implemented precisely because of this year's situation.

In the case of AZ, it has usually taken days to get most/all of the mail ballots counted, so if the procedure hasn't changed since 2018, then there may still be a delay.

With FL, I'm guessing there was at least some semblance of this policy in effect prior, as the state generally gets the vast majority of its mail and non-mail vote alike counted on Election Night.

In GA and as far as I understand, it permits counties to begin 15 days prior but does not require them: with 159 counties, some may (and probably will) choose not to begin counting early, and others (particularly larger counties with notorious difficulties in counting) may still not work through the bulk by Election Night even if they begin 15 days in advance.

But generally, I'd say we'll know a lot about the nature of the evening from TX, GA, NC, FL & AZ much sooner than from WI, PA & MI.

[Adam Griffin]

Michigan SoS: Prepare for Election Week

Michigan's secretary of state said on Sunday her state's full results of the Nov. 3 elections won't be available on Election Day, advising voters it could take a week for a final tally.

"We should be prepared for this to be closer to an election week as opposed to an election day," Jocelyn Benson said on NBC's "Meet the Press." "The bottom line is we are not going to have the full results and a counting of all of our ballots on election night. We already know that. We've asked the legislature to make changes to the laws to give us more ability to be prepared and count those ballots more efficiently."

But Benson added the legislature hasn't acted on her requests, though her office has increased tabulators and capacity to count ballots. The most important aspect to this year's elections, she said, is accuracy.

NC absentee requests are up over 1500% compared to this day 4 years ago:

61 Days Before 2016: 38,871
61 Days Before 2020: 643,400

[Adam Griffin]

I'm hoping either tonight or tomorrow night, the absentee voter file will be available via SoS:

https://elections.sos.ga.gov/Elections/voterabsenteefile.do

I'm thinking maybe since the state is processing & mailing all online mail ballots requested by September 15 (and mailing them out on 9/18), that is why it has taken so long for this data to appear (usually it shows up in early September). After today, the counties will begin processing & mailing all mail ballot requests themselves, so perhaps we'll see the absentee file finally appear sometime this week at minimum.

It's finally up! Unfortunately, there's no statewide file like usual - just 159 individual county files.

I'm obviously not digging through the individual files and I've never had much luck at merging them in the past, but based on packed/unpacked file sizes and the number of voters in the largest counties, it appears we're somewhere in the vicinity of 875,000 - 950,000 requested mail ballots in GA as of Tuesday (this includes people who voted in the primary who were 65+, who automatically receive ballots for all elections within a cycle).

[Adam Griffin]

It's never great to get too excited about 18-29 non-voter figures, because, well, a large percentage of them wouldn't have been eligible to vote four years ago, and all of the rest would have been 18-24 (which of course is the lowest turnout segment of voters). This number does seems higher than usual, but it's not uncommon for 40-50% of first-time voters to fall into this category.

Another factor to consider is that many of these people probably voted in 2018 (the stat isn't "first-time voters" technically, but non-2016 voters). Many of these voters are likely already baked into the demographic cake of 2018's results.

The same stat is still interesting, albeit when it's calculated differently than on the website: 19% of '16 non-voter mail applications are from 18-29s.

Also, given that like half of the total requested ballots are automatically being sent out to senior citizens because of their age and the fact they voted by mail in the primary, 18-29s being close to 15% of all who have proactively applied for mail ballots for the general election alone is pretty amazing. Under normal circumstances, you'd probably expect that number in GA to be in the 5-10% range.

[Adam Griffin]

Similar to Crumpets' map for NC, except this one is for GA (two color schemes):

VBM Requests as of 9/19, % of Total 2018 Vote:
Abrams Counties: 33.68% (726462/2156818)
Georgia, Overall: 29.89%
Kemp Counties: 25.32% (453819/1792128)

 

[Adam Griffin]

38 votes cast thus far in Georgia.

White 21
Black 13
Other 3

Male 21
Female 14

Voted in 2016: 21
Didn't Vote: 16


For ballot requests, here are the altered racial figures (that attempt to account for & redistribute the large "other" contingency) for those who voted in '16 and those who did not.

Race	2016 Voters	Non-16 Voters	Total VBM
White	62%	51%	59%
Black	32%	37%	33%
Lat/Asn	6%	12%	8%

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

welp that didn't take long, Virginia has already surpassed NC for the most early votes at 261,000.  LOL, people in Virginia really really despise Trump.

Do we have any idea the party breakdown of these voters and regions?

This is a good site for early/mail vote in Virginia:

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

It seems the more Democratic areas of the state have higher early voter turnout than the Republocan areas, which is expected.

Thank you!! super helpful - i see they are showing the district breakdown by district - they aren't showing the party breakdown anywhere?

This is TargetSmart data and I have cautioned about their failures in the past, but here are the modeled numbers among non-2016 early voters (mail and in-person):



And this (in-person only):

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1307719587807535104

[Adam Griffin]

VBM Requests as of 9/26, % of Total 2018 Vote:
Abrams Counties: 37.90% (817453/2156818)
Georgia, Overall: 33.28%
Kemp Counties: 27.72% (496804/1792128)

[Adam Griffin]

100,213 returned votes in GA as of this evening.

57% White
34% Black

54% Female
46% Male

68% 65+
32% 18-65

78% Voted in 2016
22% Did Not Vote in 2016

Georgia VBM Requests as of 9/30, % of Total 2018 Vote:
Abrams Counties: 39.43% (850606/2156818)
Georgia, Overall: 34.66%
Kemp Counties: 28.91% (518039/1792128)

46.35% Cobb
44.89% Dekalb
42.64% Richmond
39.85% Muscogee
39.19% Clarke
39.13% Gwinnett
38.50% Chatham
37.07% Fulton
34.93% Clayton
33.29% Bibb

[Adam Griffin]

 

[Adam Griffin]

Don't read too much into Georgia's cast votes thus far. I honestly wouldn't put much stock into it until either early in-person voting begins (10/12) or we're well north of 500k votes returned; requested ballots are a better measure at this stage.

Racial breakdowns among those cast aren't inherently any better for Democrats than they were when early voting commenced in 2018, so it's not unprecedented. Also remember that every senior citizen (as well as disabled voter, veteran and overseas voter) who requested a mail ballot in the primary or primary runoff will automatically receive a mail ballot for this election (as well as for both the state and/or federal runoffs if applicable). Almost 40% of mail ballots requested thus far fall into this category.

Not only are seniors dramatically over-represented because of this phenomenon, but Democrats are over-represented as well (among the overall electorate, as well as the senior group) since Democrats are disproportionately using VBM this year along with the fact that 55% of primary voters were Dems. This means even the racial stats aren't anywhere nearly as accurate as they normally would be. It's basically a 50/50 draw right now among requests when balancing race, gender, age and first-time voter status - but probably closer to 60/40 in actual preferences.

As has also been mentioned, the state was supposed to send out ballots beginning on 9/18 to everybody who made their request by 9/15, but they seem to have went out in staggered fashion. Additionally, various counties have begun mailing ballots earlier than others: I got my ballot on September 23.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia: 126,876 in-person votes cast on the first day (plus 35,353 mail ballots). Pre-10/12 vote tallies/percentages by demographic can be found here.

After today's update of voters, the electorate got quite a bit blacker (33.6 -> 34.4) and substantially younger (18-29: 5.2 -> 6.1; 65+: 60.0 -> 52.5).

601,247 voters have cast ballots as of Monday.

[Adam Griffin]

Well, everybody (effectively) is registered in GA now: number has to be at least 97% of VEP at this point.

GEORGIA EASY VOTER REGISTRATION OPTIONS BREAK NEW RECORDS

(ATLANTA) – Georgia has hit a new record high registration level. As of October 6, Georgia had 7,587,625 registered voters throughout the state. Over 5 million of those came through automatic registration at the Department of Driver Services, a program of the Office of the Secretary to make registering new voters and updating voter information simple and easy.

“The continued growth of Georgia’s registered voting population is a testament to the simple and easy registration options the Secretary of State’s office provides to Georgia voters, including automated registration through DDS,” said Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. “As Georgia’s strong economy continues to attract the best and brightest from around the country, even during the pandemic, my office has the infrastructure in place for anyone who wants to register and participate in the democratic process.”

Georgia voters have taken advantage of the numerous convenient and easy ways to register. Of the 7.6 million registered voters according to preliminary data, 5,002,856 of them have registered through automatic registration at the Department of Driver Services. Another 734,000 of those registered voters did so online through the Secretary of State’s website. 1,850,464 registered with paper registration applications.

The final numbers will likely be higher as counties continue to process registration applications, including those submitted online and registrations completed by DDS.

The 7.587 million total registered voters for the November 2020 general elections represents a more than 600,000 registered voter increase since November 2018.

Historically, Georgia has had incredibly high voter registration rates. According to the 2016 U.S. Election Assistance Commission Survey, 95.4% of Georgia’s eligible voting population was registered to vote in 2016. The number of overall registered voters increased from 6.657 million in November 2016 to 6.944 million in November 2018.

Georgia is recognized as a national leader in elections. It was the first state in the country to implement the trifecta of automatic voter registration, at least 16 days of early voting (which has been called the “gold standard”), and no excuse absentee voting. Georgia continues to set records for voter turnout and election participation, seeing the largest increase in average turnout of any other state in the 2018 midterm election and record primary turnout in 2020, with over 1.1 million absentee by mail voters and over 1.2 million in-person voters utilizing Georgia’s new, secure, paper ballot voting system.

Also, just to clarify, apparently registrations (active + inactive) exceed 100% according to Michael McDonald's calculations via Census data:

Registrations (Total): 7587625
Registrations (Active): 7002328
Registrations (Inactive): 585297
Georgia VEP: 7383562*

Total, % of VEP: 102.76%
Active, % of VEP: 94.84%

* The denominator reflects the Census Bureau's July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019 voting-age population estimates interpolated to Nov. 1, 2020; non-citizen estimates from the 2019 1-Year American Community Survey; the year-end 2018 DOJ prison report; and the year-end 2018 DOJ probation and parole report.

[Adam Griffin]

The GA SoS portal for absentee voter files was down pretty much all of last night, so it took until today to get firm reports of Tuesday's turnout.

141,646 votes were cast in Georgia on Tuesday (this includes in-person and mail ballots: not sure of the in-person number). This is slightly less than Monday, where 162,229 votes were cast (126,876 in-person + 35,353 mail ballots). It's perfectly normal for second day turnout to dip given GA has 16 days of in-person voting + no-excuse mail voting.

Some interesting facts as of Tuesday night:

• There have been 261,156 new mail ballot requests over the past 48 hours in GA: looks like those unnecessary multi-hour waits convinced voters to wise up. This is more than 15% of all mail ballots requested for the entire cycle (which includes the 500k mostly senior ballots automatically mailed).
  
  
• Between ballots cast (in-person & mail) and ballots requested (mail), approximately 2,050,000 ballots are now in the system (742,893 cast + ~1,300,000 mail ballots requested but not returned). This is equivalent to 52% of all ballots cast in 2018 and 50% of all ballots cast in 2016.

[Adam Griffin]

Harris was 15% of TX votes in 2016 and Clinton lost by 800k votes; adding 135k in the margin for Dems would only close the 2016 margin by 17%, which is almost proportionate with its statewide vote share in that contest. You'd either need comparable improvements in virtually every county or even larger improvements in other urban counties to offset potential losses elsewhere.

Of course, using the 2018 Beto baseline would mean such an improvement in Harris alone would close the margin by over 60% sans any GOP swings elsewhere.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia Votes hasn't updated yet, but there were 173,263 ballots cast in GA on Wednesday (in-person + mail). This is a greater number than on Tuesday (141,646) & on Monday (162,229), despite there being relatively short wait times yesterday.

One part of the problem on Monday was that the bandwidth for the computers checking in voters wasn't sufficiently high enough across the state to accommodate the surge, but the software provider has since upped it.

A total of 916,156 votes have been cast in GA thus far. This makes it #6 currently in states with the most votes cast. While TX will likely surpass GA tomorrow, I expect GA will also surpass at least one of the other current top-5 states by Friday.

CA 1685521
FL 1916920
MI 1194583
VA 1058945
NJ 1047779
GA 916156
TX 907054

VT 35.0% (of 2016)
VA 26.6%
NJ 26.5%
WI 25.4%
SD 24.9%
MI 24.5%
GA 22.0%
WY 21.5%
MN 21.4%
ND 20.9%

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia: 156,126 in-person ballots were cast on Thursday. Numbers for the mail ballots received today are not yet available, but when added to today's in-person total could mean around 200k votes being cast/received on Thursday. On the same comparable day in 2016, 95,570 in-person votes were cast.

In all, 540,013 in-person votes have been cast in Georgia. On the same comparable day in 2016, this number was 332,561.

Excluding the mail ballots received on Thursday, Georgia is now up to 1,072,282 in-person and mail ballots received.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia: 156,126 in-person ballots were cast on Thursday. Numbers for the mail ballots received today are not yet available, but when added to today's in-person total could mean around 200k votes being cast/received on Thursday. On the same comparable day in 2016, 95,570 in-person votes were cast.

In all, 540,013 in-person votes have been cast in Georgia. On the same comparable day in 2016, this number was 332,561.

Excluding the mail ballots received on Thursday, Georgia is now up to 1,072,282 in-person and mail ballots received.

Actually, it's now up to 1,125,730 votes per the late night update to Election Project

Those appear to be the mail ballots: 53,448 in all. Since my numbers above were directly from a SoS press release, McDonald apparently has accessed the VBM received totals for Thursday. One issue I'm noticing is the GA SoS has 540,013 in-person votes reported and McDonald has 541,013: likely a typo on his part.

Deducting 1,000 voters exactly, this means that GA tallied 208,574 votes on Thursday: its highest one-day total yet.

[Adam Griffin]

*NC snip*

2016 Exits: 70% White, 20% Black
2020 EV: 66.5% White, 25.4% Black

[Adam Griffin]

Top 10 States, Highest Turnout as % of 2016 Total Vote:

Code:

VT	42.7
NJ	32.7
MN	30.7
VA	29.7
TX	29.3
IA	28.8
MI	28.7
GA	27.0
WI	26.4
NE	25.2