2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

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And the 2020 Presidential Election is officially underway!

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I can tell it's election season cause we're overanalyzing & prognosticating the race based on 100 votes out of 4.7 million votes. And in just under 3 hours too.


I'll be curious to see how the other 99.998% of the vote turns out

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https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1303339016989937664?s=19

Biden has built a insurmountable lead..  

In all seriousness, that seems a relatively high rejection rate.. very early on.

If this trend holds, then Trump is winning in a landslide

Small sample size but this is concerning

400 EV Trump landslide + New York & New Jersey confirmed

Who knows what the next 100 votes could tell us

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Sober reminder that while it's great to see long lines it doesn't necessarily mean anything. It's likely these are the most die hards that vote all the time regardless of circumstance.

Guess we oughta shut this discussion down then if it means nothing. Ya'll are just wasting time in discussing this

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ok actually there was a fairly large update today.  Over 150,000 people have voted in North Carolina.  When can we start extrapolating anything from this? I don't buy the Wasserman theory that early voting turnout doesn't matter.  Dems like Obama warned that the numbers in NC were weak and it preluded to crappy Dem turnout.  150,000 seems pretty good at this point but not sure what to compare it to.

That's like 4% of the 2018 turnout, 3% of the 2016 turnout.

Relax & be patient

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I'd love to see some similar voter registration stats about Texas between now & 2016/2018 (Or even just this year)

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https://twitter.com/TexasTribune/status/1309635518477590535?s=19

In her ruling, Marmolejo acknowledged the burden the decision could put on local and state election officials, who will have to recalibrate voting machines or reprint ballots. But she reasoned that the potential harm for those suing, including the Texas Association for Retired Americans, was “outweighed by the inconveniences resulting.”

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Really excited for TX to start here in 11 days. I’ll be watching to see if we can increase turnout in the Rio Grande Valley in particular. If we can get them out at a respectable rate, I like Biden’s odds in Texas.

You gonna be providing updates? I'll be very curious how early voting will compare to 2018 (Particularly in South Texas)

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I wonder if we are at the point where the election project site basically adds 1 million or more early votes a day (on weekdays).  It looks like it's getting close to that already.

It will happen once California, Texas and New York start voting

CA ballots have been mailed and are expected to arrive Monday (if they haven't already). Expect national early votes to spike in the next few days.


Also, just thinking out loud in regards to GA, I wonder if early voting would mitigate a lot of the pitfalls/roadblocks in regards to potential voter suppression and/or election day funny-business that voters wouldn't have time to fix

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Just sent my ballot in. Straight Democrat all the way through. My Mom is gonna vote in person and is hoping there'll be Trump pollwatchers so she can give them a piece of her mind

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The USPS stuff might have backfired on Trump. It looks like it scared a lot of Democrats into sending their ballots in as early as possible.

I knew it'd backfire on him as soon as it became headline news. Yet we had a few good months of bedwetters still saying it'd lead to Trump's reelection and Democrats being too weak & submissive to do anything about it

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Long lines & big crowds in Minnesota/Ohio/Virginia: "Look at all the enthusiasm! Dems are gonna do great here for sure!"


Long lines & big crowds in Georgia: "Voter suppression! See why Democrats are foolish in even contesting this state?!?"



I feel like folks were just salivating to scream "Suppression!" as soon as Georgia had the same long lines that we've seen in every other state so far. I guarantees it'll happen again tomorrow when we see the long lines in Texas

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Crazy registration numbers in Texas.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1315786012812075010?s=20

Just over a million new voters since November 2018. Or 1.5 times the number of registrations between 2016 & 2018.

But "It's not there yet"

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https://twitter.com/DianneG/status/1315832772464967680?s=20

Voter suppression enthusiasm!

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With hours to go before early voting starts in Texas, I just wanted to pull up some countywide registration & early voting numbers. While I could find daily early vote updates for the more populous counties, I couldn't find the statewide early vote numbers.


Biggest gain of new voters since 2018
1.  Harris             +134,909
2.  Bexar               +83,989
3.  Tarrant             +76,097
4.  Travis               +75,240
5.  Denton             +66,612
6.  Dallas               +62,117
7.  Collin                +60,681
8.  Fort Bend         +49,594
9.  Williamson       +43,320
10. Montgomery   +33,947

Biggest percentage gain of new voters since 2018
1.  Comal             +13.0%
2.  Denton            +11.8%
3.  Parker             +11.8%
4.  Williamson     +11.5%
5.  Rockwall         +11.3%
6.  Kaufman         +11.2%
7.  Hays                +10.8%
8.  Fort Bend        +10.3%
9.  Ellis                    +9.8%
10. Guadalupe       +9.6%

Biggest gain of new voters since 2016
1.  Harris               +238,698
2.  Bexar               +136,889
3.  Travis               +126,155
4.  Tarrant             +121,096
5.  Dallas               +110,348
6.  Collin                +103,216
7.  Denton               +99,312
8.  Fort Bend           +77,391
9.  Williamson         +75,347
10. El Paso              +59,417

Biggest percentage gain of new voters since 2016
1.  Comal             +20.3%
2.  Williamson     +20.1%
3.  Hays               +19.5%
4.  Rockwall        +19.1%
5.  Parker            +18.1%
6.  Denton           +17.6%
7.  Kaufman        +17.3%
8.  Collin              +16.1%
9.  Fort Bend       +16.1%
10. Guadalupe    +15.9%

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Day 1 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM)


HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:    87,659      4.4% of registered voters in Harris
2016:  129,014      5.8%
2018:  115,601      4.9%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   48,877       4.2%
2016:   80,301       6.2%
2018:   81,723       6.1%

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)
2012:   52,225       5.4%
2016:   65,156       6.1%
2018:   62,971       5.6%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   37,616       4.1%
2016:   52,712       5.0%
2018:   45,170       4.1%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:   20,935       3.3%
2016:   46,086       6.4%
2018:   47,405       6.1%

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   21,035       4.6%
2016:   36,719       6.8%
2018:   42,511       7.3%

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   16,230       4.2%
2016:   21,994       4.7%
2018:   24,694       5.0%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:      9465       2.5%
2016:   19,458       4.5%
2018:   23,449       5.1%

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:   12,410       4.9%
2016:   24,214       8.1%
2018:   23,496       7.1%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:   13,831       4.5%
2016:   23,458       6.9%
2018:   19,650       5.4%

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:      7310       3.8%
2016:   10,231       5.1%
2018:   12,064       5.9%

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:      4810       2.7%
2016:      8401       4.3%
2018:      9223       4.5%

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For any of our Texas posters, when can we expect today's turnout numbers to be released? Later tonight or tomorrow?

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You can track live voter turnout in Tarrant here, and even see turnout by the hour.

https://www.tarrantcounty.com/en/elections/Upcoming-Election-Information/Live_Turn_Out_Widget.html

If that's just today's in-person numbers and not VBM, then Jesus! (Fine, I guess I'll contain my anticipation until we more official numbers from here and the rest of the state)

42,402 early votes from today + 32,089 VBM ballots (not including today) = ~74,491 early votes

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth) (On first day of early voting)
2012:   52,225       5.4% of registered voters
2016:   65,156       6.1%
2018:   62,971       5.6%
~2020: 74,491       6.2%

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Reserving judgement until we get the official early/VBM vote cumulative numbers

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Lol, and to think people were pointing to Dallas as a bad sign without even factoring in the astronomical absentees compared to 2016.

That's why I'm waiting until I get the fuller picture from the TX elections website with updated VBM. It was bad enough yesterday with all the "Long lines = Voter suppression!" takes about GA before the announcement of the record-breaking first-day turnout & updated registration numbers.

Though I'd say any increase from 2016 and/or 2018 is good in my book

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Most of these are from county reports while some are a mix of county & state reports. For example, Bexar is early votes they reported + Mail ballots that Texas reported.

If folks want, I can continue these updates for the next couple days. Perhaps with requested counties?

Without further ado!


Day 1 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM)


HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:    87,659      4.4% of registered voters in Harris
2016:  129,014      5.8%
2018:  115,601      4.9%
2020:  169,523      6.8%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   48,877       4.2%
2016:   80,301       6.2%
2018:   81,723       6.1%
2020:   92,953       6.7%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   37,616       4.1%
2016:   52,712       5.0%
2018:   45,170       4.1%
2020:   78,493       6.6%

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)
2012:   52,225       5.4%
2016:   65,156       6.1%
2018:   62,971       5.6%
2020:   78,273       6.5%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:   20,935       3.3%
2016:   46,086       6.4%
2018:   47,405       6.1%
2020:   58,467       6.8%

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   16,230       4.2%
2016:   21,994       4.7%
2018:   24,694       5.0%
2020:   49,897       8.9%

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   21,035       4.6%
2016:   36,719       6.8%
2018:   42,511       7.3%
2020:   45,338       7.0%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:      9,465       2.5%
2016:    19,458       4.5%
2018:    23,449       5.1%
2020:    34,120       7.0%

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:   12,410       4.9%
2016:   24,214       8.1%
2018:   23,496       7.1%
2020:   33,362       8.9%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:   13,831       4.5%
2016:   23,458       6.9%
2018:   19,650       5.4%
2020:   24,976       6.4%

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:   15,021       5.7%
2016:   20,432       6.6%
2018:   20,158       6.0%
2020:   20,874       5.7%

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    4,810       2.7%
2016:    8,401       4.3%
2018:    9,223       4.5%
2020:  18,009       8.2%

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:     7,310       3.8%
2016:   10,231       5.1%
2018:   12,064       5.9%
2020:   16,963       8.0%

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Those Cameron County numbers are phenomenal. What do you have for Webb County vs 2016/18?

I thought I messed up the math at first, but the state & local media are reporting similar numbers!

https://www.valleycentral.com/news/local-news/early-voting-turnout-numbers-surpass-first-day-records-in-cameron-and-hidalgo-counties/



Webb County doesn't seem to have updated their totals since the July runoff. The state is reporting around 3300, but that could be incomplete based on this local news article:

https://www.kgns.tv/2020/10/14/early-voting-turnout-strongest-in-years/

Based on KGNS' numbers...

WEBB COUNTY (Laredo)
2016:   3,341    2.7%
2018:   4,137    3.2%
2020:   4,141    3.0%

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So how bout that early voting!

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@Monstro: are you still doing the major county updates? Those were outstanding. Also, how is rural turnout compared to 2016, is it about even or is it significantly up?

I am! Sorry, haven't been able to sit down long enough to put the numbers in. I'll be gathering the Day 2 numbers now.

I'm not sure how to get the complete 2016 early numbers. The Texas elections site only provides early votes from the most populated ~20 counties for that year and 2018. And, to be honest, I don't want to spend hours scavenging across 250 county sites! The lack of county reporting is also why I can't find statewide early votes for 2016/2018

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Sorry for the delay!


Day 2 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   142,764      7.1%
2016:   205,390      9.2%
2018:   181,916      7.8%
2020:   287,531    11.6%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:    84,942       7.2%
2016:   134,235    10.4%
2018:   136,982    10.3%
2020:   152,209    10.9%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:    73,540       8.0%
2016:    92,737       8.9%
2018:    83,179       7.6%
2020:   119,922    10.2%

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)
2012:    87,172      8.9%
2016:   110,338   10.2%
2018:   107,360     9.6%
2020:   123,726   10.3%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:    38,494     6.1%
2016:    84,438   11.6%
2018:    83,162   10.7%
2020:    97,083   11.4%

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    30,518     7.9%
2016:    42,555     9.2%
2018:    45,741     9.2%
2020:    84,671   15.0%

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    39,591     8.6%
2016:    68,241   12.7%
2018:    74,273   12.8%
2020:    84,642   13.1%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:    18,755     4.9%
2016:    36,173     8.5%
2018:    39,603     8.7%
2020:    53,052   10.9%

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:    21,694     8.6%
2016:    41,006   13.7%
2018:    44,290   13.3%
2020:    56,447   15.0%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    25,418     8.3%
2016:    39,494   11.7%
2018:    33,296     9.2%
2020:    43,097   11.0%

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    25,476     9.6%
2016:    33,213   10.7%
2018:    32,175     9.7%
2020:    33,550     9.1%

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     9,280      5.1%
2016:    14,956     7.6%
2018:    16,030     7.8%
2020:    24,587   11.2%

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:    12,631     6.6%
2016:    17,279     8.7%
2018:    20,021     9.8%
2020:    27,371   12.9%