Will SCOTUS hand the election to Trump if there is ambiguity after election day?
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  Will SCOTUS hand the election to Trump if there is ambiguity after election day?
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Author Topic: Will SCOTUS hand the election to Trump if there is ambiguity after election day?  (Read 1168 times)
Cassandra
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« on: October 26, 2020, 08:41:59 PM »
« edited: October 26, 2020, 08:51:45 PM by Cassandra »

Imagine a scenario where, due to delays in counting mail-in votes, the outcome of the election is not clear on election night. Election nerds like us are pretty confident that Biden will come out on top after some hopefully election night signs, but the networks are playing it safe and holding off on calling the outcome.

Over the following days, the Trump campaign launches a number of lawsuits aiming ultimately at slowing or stopping the counting of mail-in ballots. We also see attempts at physical disruption of vote-counting in key counties in swing states reminiscent of the Brooks Brothers riot in Dade County in 2000.

What does this Supreme do? Will they just allow things to play out as they may, rejecting to hear any lawsuits? Will they issue an injunction? Effectively, will they push Trump over the line or cut him loose?
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2020, 08:49:48 PM »

There is no question that if this goes before the current Supreme Court, for whatever reason and regardless of the circumstances, they will rule in favor of Trump.
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politics_king
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2020, 08:56:16 PM »

If they don't want violence in the street and Biden has won the popular vote and electoral college. The GOP knows they lost the election, this is the last way they can hang onto power by using the courts. They think if the Dems pack the court, they have something for the mid-terms and 2024 election. This is all going to blow up in their faces. Millennials haven't forgotten George W. Bush and the Zoomers generation will not forget this and 4 years of Trump. You reap what you sow.
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compucomp
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2020, 09:00:51 PM »

There is no question that if this goes before the current Supreme Court, for whatever reason and regardless of the circumstances, they will rule in favor of Trump.

I disagree with you, it will depend on the circumstances. If it's like Bush v. Gore where it's extremely close and there's ambiguity, yeah the SC is fairly likely to rule for Trump. If it's a case where Trump is suing to stop the count of millions of absentee ballots in PA/MI/WI because he knows the election night results are a red mirage, no the SC would not rule to stop that. Those absentee ballots were mailed out and returned according to the states' election codes and invalidating them is tantamount to declaring the election invalid. It would be completely against any case law and the Constitution, would result in a civil war, and I refuse to believe that the Supreme Court would go that step.

No matter what we think of their judicial views, the justices Trump appointed are still distinguished federal judges and stewards of the Constitution. Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and ACB are not Eric, Don Jr, and Ivanka.
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mark_twain
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2020, 09:02:40 PM »

I would like to believe that the justices are impartial and do not make their decisions based on partisan preferences.

But in practice, it does not happen that way, and they always find a way, deep in the recesses of their minds, to "argue" their way toward a decision that conforms to the leanings they have been known to take, primarily on a partisan basis.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2020, 09:03:59 PM »

I would like to believe that the justices are impartial and do not make their decisions based on partisan preferences.

But in practice, it does not happen that way, and they always find a way, deep in the recesses of their minds, to "argue" their way toward a decision that conforms to the leanings they have been known to take, primarily on a partisan basis.



Partisanship might tilt a decision in a very narrow scenario

However feel free to explain this decision

https://www.opb.org/article/2020/08/11/oregon-redistricting-ballot-measure-supreme-court-stay/

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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2020, 09:23:45 PM »

The SC will avoid outright ruling in favor of Trump. But they will enable GOP-run states to hand their electoral votes to him, even if Biden won the popular vote in those states.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2020, 09:28:26 PM »

If it's not ambiguous I can see them using "originalism" to invalidate votes based on the constitution not mentioning anything about voting by mail. These people are crazy and you can't put anything past them.
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Donerail
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2020, 09:32:22 PM »

There are six Republican justices and three Democrat justices. For all their quirks on other issues, when it comes to the current court's voting rights jurisprudence, that is really all you need to know (and, since 2000, it is all you've ever had to know).
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2020, 09:34:43 PM »

Depends on what you mean by “ambiguity.” If it’s as close as Bush v. Gore? Yeah probably. But if Biden won Pennsylvania by 5 points or something but the GOP is trying to put electors in there overriding the popular vote and their own electoral law, then I don’t think even this court would let that fly.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2020, 09:37:04 PM »

Only if the race is genuinely close.
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TC 25
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2020, 10:00:52 PM »

IF within the margin of litigation yes (i.e., a state or two being so close where a ruling may make a difference, such as stopping the counting of ballots after a particular date or deadline).

If Biden has 300-plus EV there's no way even a Trump court could pull this off.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2020, 10:04:36 PM »

I think there are at least four on the Court who would do it - Alito, Barrett, Kavanaugh, and Thomas - regardless of whether or not it was justified. Not entirely clear that they would have a fifth vote or not for something that was transparently unjustified, but it's within the realm of possibility.
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xavier110
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2020, 10:08:48 PM »

We have a more activist court than we did in 2000. ACB was installed so that this would be a foregone conclusion. Yes, they will hand every court victory they can to Trump
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2020, 10:09:23 PM »

If we are in a Florida 2000 scenario, absolutely. If its a desperate attempt to cling to power, nope. We have to remember that legitimacy is crucial to maintaining power, and as much as Trump is despised, he won the election according to the rules in 2016. If Trump is losing, the GOP leadership will drop him like a rock - why should they stick out their necks for a loser. Same with the courts, why build animosity now when they have years to (or a year if dems are going to react then pack) to do what they want? Good examples are recent elections in NC, WI, and KY. The GOp throws up every barrior before the election, and after if its within a margin to contest, but will drop a loser if hes losing. They won't disrupt the legitimacy of the electoral process because them and every politician survives on that legitimacy.
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Buzz
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2020, 10:13:35 PM »

I pray the race isn't close enough either way.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2020, 10:13:57 PM »

Alito, Thomas, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barret would be the five you would need to pay attention to. Gorsuch would probably be the swing vote, and the problem is we have no idea what he would do in that situation. I'm a bit pessimistic just because of the uniformity of the conservative media machine, but I doubt that Gorsuch would do anything that would directly invalidate the election due to the civil war risk.
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2020, 10:53:15 PM »

It depends what the legal issue is that the Court is called upon to rule on. Bush v. Gore was easy for SCOTUS to rig for Bush because Bush was ahead in the initial count certified by the Florida Secretary of State. SCOTUS isn’t going to issue a blanket ruling declaring all mail-in votes are illegal. But they might uphold attempts by Republican Secretaries of State to throw out batches of ballots on silly grounds.
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Stockdale for Veep
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« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2020, 11:34:18 PM »

Call me crazy, but what if the EC comes down to 2 states, but the Dems have won 52 Senate seats, not counting any GA runoffs.

Roberts then refuses to hear any case, putting the integrity of the court above partisanship, and agrees to retire in '21 in a compromise to kill court packing discussions.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #19 on: October 27, 2020, 05:47:30 AM »

They can't exactly hand the election to Trump. Only the Electoral College and ultimately Senate.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: October 27, 2020, 06:19:19 AM »

Again, if there was any ambiguity in the stimulus package 1.8T Stimulus is better than nothing, Pelosi is a Union boss balked at it, but Trump signed the CR on 9/30 to 12/1 getting no concession out of Pelosi which was a rookie mistake

Bush W and Congress passed Tarp in conjunction with the CR for the following fiscal yr

The Rs did this in part due to John McCain, McCain would have endured Rs passed a stimulus before the election
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