2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Ferguson97]

Other than ME-02 this is my exact map

Me too, except I am not so sure about North Carolina.  And I think Florida will be a lot tighter because it's Florida.  But everything else looks spot on to me.

Team Biden thinking they're up 3 and a half points in Georgia is the big shocker here.

Wasn't considering the margins, just the results. I'd think Georgia is tighter and Arizona is wider.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Some more TX numbers:

Denton and Collin counties both at 69% of 2016 turnout after today.

Williamson County at 77% of 2016 turnout and at over 44% turnout of overall registered voters.

Tarrant county at 53% of 2016 turnout after today.

Hidalgo County at 62% of 2016 turnout after today.

What does it all mean?

For one thing, things aren't slowing down. Denton and Collin Counties are both up at least 7% from yesterday, as is Williamson. I believe Tarrant went up 6-8% too from yesterday. Tarrant is especially impressive given we are still voting 8-5 while most of the rest of the urban counties are 7-7 now, which we dont switch over to until Saturday.

Right but which candidate does this likely help?  Or is it too soon to say?  

For instance if you told me that Northern Virginia turnout was outpacing downstate, I'd know instantly that is good for Biden because more votes here and more sporadic voters are probably going 3 to 1 for Biden.

Denton and Collin are ex-GOP strongholds that Trump should NARROWLY win (after winning Denton by 20 and Collin by 17 last time...I'd expect Collin to be pretty close to tied this time) Hard anti-Trump trends in those areas but still will likely be GOP carried. Both affluent DFW suburban counties full of college educated people.

Williamson (Trump by 9) and Tarrant (Trump by 8 ) are very likely to be Trump 16-Biden 20 counties (I could still be wrong and Trump could carry Tarrant by the skin of his teeth, but I doubt it. Williamson is just GONE) Williamson is Austin Suburbs, Tarrant is Fort Worth and DFW Suburbs.

Hidalgo is a safe D county for decades in South Texas (McAllen TX, Clinton won the county by 40), but like all of South Texas, is traditionally plagued by s***y voter turnout and as such punches WAY below its theoretical weight in size of the county. If Hidalgo County and neighboring Cameron County (Brownsville) actually show up in force, that's...basically unheard of.

I know Texas has been changing, but damn that would be a huge swing.

Have these places really grown that much in just four years?
Or is it just suburbs turning sour on Trump?

both

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, Final Tuesday Update: 214,314 votes were cast on Tuesday. This is the largest single day of voting thus far.

This includes 160,089 in-person votes and 54,225 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 1,146,416 in-person & 765,629 by mail, for a grand total of 1,912,045 (45.90% of 2016 total vote).

Georgia will almost certainly hit 50% of 2016 turnout tomorrow and likely surpass Trump's 2016 raw vote as well (Clinton's raw vote total was surpassed today).

[Storr]

Obligatory Ralston Clark Dem firewall update: https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1318730879804436481?s=20

[Tintrlvr]

Some more TX numbers:

Denton and Collin counties both at 69% of 2016 turnout after today.

Williamson County at 77% of 2016 turnout and at over 44% turnout of overall registered voters.

Tarrant county at 53% of 2016 turnout after today.

Hidalgo County at 62% of 2016 turnout after today.

What does it all mean?

For one thing, things aren't slowing down. Denton and Collin Counties are both up at least 7% from yesterday, as is Williamson. I believe Tarrant went up 6-8% too from yesterday. Tarrant is especially impressive given we are still voting 8-5 while most of the rest of the urban counties are 7-7 now, which we dont switch over to until Saturday.

Right but which candidate does this likely help?  Or is it too soon to say?  

For instance if you told me that Northern Virginia turnout was outpacing downstate, I'd know instantly that is good for Biden because more votes here and more sporadic voters are probably going 3 to 1 for Biden.

Denton and Collin are ex-GOP strongholds that Trump should NARROWLY win (after winning Denton by 20 and Collin by 17 last time...I'd expect Collin to be pretty close to tied this time) Hard anti-Trump trends in those areas but still will likely be GOP carried. Both affluent DFW suburban counties full of college educated people.

Williamson (Trump by 9) and Tarrant (Trump by 8 ) are very likely to be Trump 16-Biden 20 counties (I could still be wrong and Trump could carry Tarrant by the skin of his teeth, but I doubt it. Williamson is just GONE) Williamson is Austin Suburbs, Tarrant is Fort Worth and DFW Suburbs.

Hidalgo is a safe D county for decades in South Texas (McAllen TX, Clinton won the county by 40), but like all of South Texas, is traditionally plagued by s***y voter turnout and as such punches WAY below its theoretical weight in size of the county. If Hidalgo County and neighboring Cameron County (Brownsville) actually show up in force, that's...basically unheard of.

I know Texas has been changing, but damn that would be a huge swing.

Have these places really grown that much in just four years?
Or is it just suburbs turning sour on Trump?

Both. Collin County was only Cruz+6 in 2018 (and Denton only just behind at Cruz +8), so those swings seem realistic. If Biden wins Texas (and I think he will, although it will be very close), I would think he probably does win Collin County and may even win Denton County, even though those are more than a uniform swing from 2018, because of the lack of swing in rural areas.

The 2018 trend map is worth a look-see:

[Non Swing Voter]

Some more TX numbers:

Denton and Collin counties both at 69% of 2016 turnout after today.

Williamson County at 77% of 2016 turnout and at over 44% turnout of overall registered voters.

Tarrant county at 53% of 2016 turnout after today.

Hidalgo County at 62% of 2016 turnout after today.

What does it all mean?

For one thing, things aren't slowing down. Denton and Collin Counties are both up at least 7% from yesterday, as is Williamson. I believe Tarrant went up 6-8% too from yesterday. Tarrant is especially impressive given we are still voting 8-5 while most of the rest of the urban counties are 7-7 now, which we dont switch over to until Saturday.

Right but which candidate does this likely help?  Or is it too soon to say?  

For instance if you told me that Northern Virginia turnout was outpacing downstate, I'd know instantly that is good for Biden because more votes here and more sporadic voters are probably going 3 to 1 for Biden.

Denton and Collin are ex-GOP strongholds that Trump should NARROWLY win (after winning Denton by 20 and Collin by 17 last time...I'd expect Collin to be pretty close to tied this time) Hard anti-Trump trends in those areas but still will likely be GOP carried. Both affluent DFW suburban counties full of college educated people.

Williamson (Trump by 9) and Tarrant (Trump by 8 ) are very likely to be Trump 16-Biden 20 counties (I could still be wrong and Trump could carry Tarrant by the skin of his teeth, but I doubt it. Williamson is just GONE) Williamson is Austin Suburbs, Tarrant is Fort Worth and DFW Suburbs.

Hidalgo is a safe D county for decades in South Texas (McAllen TX, Clinton won the county by 40), but like all of South Texas, is traditionally plagued by s***y voter turnout and as such punches WAY below its theoretical weight in size of the county. If Hidalgo County and neighboring Cameron County (Brownsville) actually show up in force, that's...basically unheard of.

I mean, given what you're saying and given the trends in early voting so far, it does really sound like Texas is 50/50 now.  It's not getting enough attention as a top tier battleground state IMO.

[Non Swing Voter]

If these really are Biden's internals, overconfidence in AZ is, well, overconfident.

Other than ME-02 this is my exact map

Me too, except I am not so sure about North Carolina.  And I think Florida will be a lot tighter because it's Florida.  But everything else looks spot on to me.

Team Biden thinking they're up 3 and a half points in Georgia is the big shocker here.

I'd bet they are up 1 or 2 but a solid 1 or 2 because of the lack of elasticity there.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Deeply deeply concerning.

[Bootes Void]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Deeply deeply concerning.

I mean for republicans to catch up, it was bound to happen especially of alot of Dems go vbm. It's possible for some Dems to switch from vbm to in-person but it won't be done fully

[swf541]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Deeply deeply concerning.

I mean for republicans to catch up, it was bound to happen especially of alot of Dems go vbm. It's possible for some Dems to switch from vbm to in-person but it won't be done fully

Yea Im not really seeing where this is surprising or concerning

[Dr. Arch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Deeply deeply concerning.

I mean for republicans to catch up, it was bound to happen especially of alot of Dems go vbm. It's possible for some Dems to switch from vbm to in-person but it won't be done fully

How is this concerning if Democrats are just voting in different ways and in much higher numbers than 2016? What are you on about, UBI??

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Deeply deeply concerning.

I mean for republicans to catch up, it was bound to happen especially of alot of Dems go vbm. It's possible for some Dems to switch from vbm to in-person but it won't be done fully

Yea Im not really seeing where this is surprising or concerning

Look at predictit

[Dr. Arch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Deeply deeply concerning.

I mean for republicans to catch up, it was bound to happen especially of alot of Dems go vbm. It's possible for some Dems to switch from vbm to in-person but it won't be done fully

Yea Im not really seeing where this is surprising or concerning

Look at predictit

-_- Sometimes I forget that most folks here don't know much about statistics, and then posts like these come up.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Deeply deeply concerning.

I mean for republicans to catch up, it was bound to happen especially of alot of Dems go vbm. It's possible for some Dems to switch from vbm to in-person but it won't be done fully

Yea Im not really seeing where this is surprising or concerning

Look at predictit

🙄 Good grief

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Deeply deeply concerning.

I mean for republicans to catch up, it was bound to happen especially of alot of Dems go vbm. It's possible for some Dems to switch from vbm to in-person but it won't be done fully

Yea Im not really seeing where this is surprising or concerning

Look at predictit

Predictit is full of morons, and you can tell them that I said that.

[Ferguson97]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Deeply deeply concerning.

I mean for republicans to catch up, it was bound to happen especially of alot of Dems go vbm. It's possible for some Dems to switch from vbm to in-person but it won't be done fully

Yea Im not really seeing where this is surprising or concerning

Look at predictit

A Yang guy thinking predict it has meaning confirms my priors

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Deeply deeply concerning.

I mean for republicans to catch up, it was bound to happen especially of alot of Dems go vbm. It's possible for some Dems to switch from vbm to in-person but it won't be done fully

Yea Im not really seeing where this is surprising or concerning

Look at predictit

Predictit is full of morons, and you can tell them that I said that.

Sir are you calling into question the expertise of disqus posters with names like “down with then (((establishment)))” with an avatar of Trump’s head on the god emperor from Warhammer 40k proclaiming Trump will win because of the 50 cent endorsement?

[LimoLiberal]

So combining VBM and early in-person did the Republicans make up ground in Florida today?

[swf541]

So combining VBM and early in-person did the Republicans make up ground in Florida today?

The prior posted numbers also didnt have Miami-Dade we do we dont even know the actual gop margin advantage statewide for in person ev

[GP270watch]

So combining VBM and early in-person did the Republicans make up ground in Florida today?

 We don't know because Miami-Dade is on its own reporting schedule. We'll know by the official daily reports tomorrow. Republicans are doing very well in early in-person voting which is concerning because the rejection rate of these votes is much lower than VBM. Democrats are dropping off tons of vote by mail ballots at dropboxes at early voting sites. The weekend will tell us more if we don't see a big bump in Democrat in person and the usual "Souls to the Polls" bump that will be very concerning. There are a lot of very reliable Republican voters left to vote about as much as the Democrats current "lead" by party ID.



 

[Holmes]

Yesterday, Dems had a statewide advantage of about 473k and now it’s about 479k, but Miami-Dade is still unreported for in person early voting today.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ugh I hate Florida.

[It’s so Joever]

Welp, Florida is red.

[Dr. Arch]

So... Let me get this straight. The Democrats' statewide advantage grew between yesterday and today despite there not being any votes reported yet from Miami-Dade, and now Florida is red?

[Rep Jessica]

Ugh I hate Florida.

Go Trump!!! Win Florida. You thought you were going to win the state in 2018 and you lost. It will happen again! Go Trump!!!! Go Trump!!!!