2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread  (Read 121754 times)
Terry the Fat Shark
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« on: September 03, 2020, 02:11:45 AM »
« edited: October 24, 2020, 01:01:29 PM by Biden +3 in Texas »

Tomorrow, North Carolina voters who requested an absentee ballot will begin to receive their ballots. Marking the official start of the general election voting. This thread will be for posting official (or unofficial) data regarding both absentee voting and early voting, whether that be turnout reports or anything else related to it.

Links:
NYT Early voting start and end dates for all 50 states
Absentee Ballot deadlines for all 50 states
NC absentee ballot request data by day (cumulative).
Vote by mail/early vote tracker
Florida early vote tracker
Texas early vote tracker
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2020, 02:16:15 AM »

NC absentee ballot request data by day (cumulative) can be found here.

As of 9/1, 591,379 ballots have been requested:
53% Democratic
31% Unaffiliated
16% Republican
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"?"
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« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2020, 03:01:00 AM »

And the 2020 Presidential Election is officially underway!


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NOVA Green
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« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2020, 05:52:25 AM »

Aren't Overseas Military Absentee Votes the first to be mailed out, and we don't have any Stateside EV, and VbM's popping up anytime soon?

How many folk in NC are actually voting this early?

Makes the Atlas throbbing looking a bit like Dixville Notch, NH.... IMHO...

Who is actually getting ballots in NC this Week or the next?



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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2020, 05:57:52 AM »

How many folk in NC are actually voting this early?


According to Michael McDonald, more than 600 thousand requests were sent.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: September 03, 2020, 10:39:58 AM »

WARNING:

This thread will show significantly higher absentee requests and people will go like "Wow, they are so HUGE compared to 2016, Biden is favoured !"

But in fact, no conclusion whatsoever can be drawn from those requests, because all the Trump voters will vote on election day.

And this will make up for all the increases in postal vote requests ...
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #6 on: September 03, 2020, 10:41:03 AM »

WARNING:

This thread will show significantly higher absentee requests and people will go like "Wow, they are so HUGE compared to 2016, Biden is favoured !"

But in fact, no conclusion whatsoever can be drawn from those requests, because all the Trump voters will vote on election day.

And this will make up for all the increases in postal vote requests ...

Atlas: Alright.

Also Atlas: Proceeds to scream at each other over early votes for the next two months.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #7 on: September 03, 2020, 10:46:04 AM »

Reminder to everyone:

Verify your voter information through whatever means are available to you.  In WA state it is an easily-Googleable website that takes ten seconds to verify.

Fill out your paperwork and get your ballot as early as possible.

Follow-up on your ballot, through whatever system is available in your state, to ensure that it is properly received and counted.

DO NOT GET COMPLACENT.  If you're in WI and Fox says WI is +10, vote anyway.  If you see early voting results that say Biden is winning your state by double-digits, vote anyway.  If you live in a solid D/R state, vote anyway.  It's important that Trump lose by as large a margin as possible and that Biden's mandate be as strong as possible and a +8 NPV victory is very different from a +4 victory.

Make sure all your friends and family vote.  You are on Atlas, which means you are following politics more closely than 99% of the country.  As such it is your responsibility to expand your impact beyond yourself.  If you don't, there's no other highly-informed highly-motivated guy who's gonna do it for you.
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UBI man good
Liam
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« Reply #8 on: September 03, 2020, 10:50:38 AM »

WARNING:

This thread will show significantly higher absentee requests and people will go like "Wow, they are so HUGE compared to 2016, Biden is favoured !"

But in fact, no conclusion whatsoever can be drawn from those requests, because all the Trump voters will vote on election day.

And this will make up for all the increases in postal vote requests ...
Could you please not ruin this? Jk.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: September 03, 2020, 10:54:44 AM »

WARNING:

This thread will show significantly higher absentee requests and people will go like "Wow, they are so HUGE compared to 2016, Biden is favoured !"

But in fact, no conclusion whatsoever can be drawn from those requests, because all the Trump voters will vote on election day.

And this will make up for all the increases in postal vote requests ...
Could you please not ruin this? Jk.

People can and should of course post the absentee request numbers here.

But I'm just warning that people should not get a boner because those requests are 20-times the number from 2016 at any given day and then draw some conclusions out of it.

Like in 2016, when Dems had a big early voting/absentee request lead and people were saying Hillary for sure must win NC by 3% or more ...
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #10 on: September 03, 2020, 10:57:31 AM »

Reminder to everyone:

Verify your voter information through whatever means are available to you.  In WA state it is an easily-Googleable website that takes ten seconds to verify.

Fill out your paperwork and get your ballot as early as possible.

Follow-up on your ballot, through whatever system is available in your state, to ensure that it is properly received and counted.

DO NOT GET COMPLACENT.  If you're in WI and Fox says WI is +10, vote anyway.  If you see early voting results that say Biden is winning your state by double-digits, vote anyway.  If you live in a solid D/R state, vote anyway.  It's important that Trump lose by as large a margin as possible and that Biden's mandate be as strong as possible and a +8 NPV victory is very different from a +4 victory.

Make sure all your friends and family vote.  You are on Atlas, which means you are following politics more closely than 99% of the country.  As such it is your responsibility to expand your impact beyond yourself.  If you don't, there's no other highly-informed highly-motivated guy who's gonna do it for you.

Yep we can't get complacent, but I think pretty much everyone on Atlas eligible to vote will vote. We need to work to spread the message outside of just Atlas.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #11 on: September 03, 2020, 11:14:13 AM »

Yep we can't get complacent, but I think pretty much everyone on Atlas eligible to vote will vote. We need to work to spread the message outside of just Atlas.

Call your friends and your family, get them engaged with the election NOW and keep the pressure on to make sure they are registering and voting as soon as they can in their states.

Be proactive about shooting down the common voter-suppression myths.  No, voting isn't difficult or confusing.  No, both sides aren't the same.  Yes, your vote still matters even if you don't live in a swing state.  No, this harebrained scheme to force Democrats to the left by re-electing Trump doesn't make any sense.  Make sure everybody in your circle of influence votes for Biden and votes straight-D downballot as early as possible
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #12 on: September 03, 2020, 11:18:14 AM »

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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #13 on: September 03, 2020, 11:30:58 AM »

How are these numbers generated, by the way?  Are they demographic/location-based estimates or do people have to state their party when they request a ballot, and then their names are listed and their voting patterns can be looked up?
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kph14
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« Reply #14 on: September 03, 2020, 11:36:02 AM »

How are these numbers generated, by the way?  Are they demographic/location-based estimates or do people have to state their party when they request a ballot, and then their names are listed and their voting patterns can be looked up?

In Maine voters are registered by party. I suppose in general I think they use all information (party registration, age, ethnicity, county) they can get and model an expected partisanship
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The End to the Epic
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« Reply #15 on: September 03, 2020, 11:43:25 AM »

How are these numbers generated, by the way?  Are they demographic/location-based estimates or do people have to state their party when they request a ballot, and then their names are listed and their voting patterns can be looked up?
It's based on party registration. Thus only in states with that will we get this info.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #16 on: September 03, 2020, 01:52:12 PM »

How are these numbers generated, by the way?  Are they demographic/location-based estimates or do people have to state their party when they request a ballot, and then their names are listed and their voting patterns can be looked up?

Tom Bonier/TargetSmart is a voter modelling company. As such, the numbers he's pumping out may very well be TargetSmart's modeled projections based on voter file data and the like. The NC numbers I provided are actual breakdowns based on the chosen party of voters in their state voter registrations.

Maine as one example seems iffy at first glance: 90% of ballot requests being D/R when it's only 69% in North Carolina? Surely that's modeling given NC has closed primaries and ME's "independent" streak.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #17 on: September 03, 2020, 02:00:42 PM »

Here in Londonderry, NH for the state primary - as of 9/2/2020,  there's 1,948 Absentee requests, 1,288 for the Democratic Primary, and 660 for the Republican Primary.

For the General Election - 349 Dem, 170 GOP, and 247 undeclared.   But that number hasn't been updated in quite some time due to them trying to keep up with the primary.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #18 on: September 03, 2020, 02:01:34 PM »

As of yesterday:

Quote
Nearly 800,000 Georgians, or about one in nine active voters, have already requested an absentee ballot, as state officials encourage the use of early voting to minimize lines at the polls for the November election.

https://www.gpb.org/news/2020/09/02/nearly-800000-georgians-have-already-requested-absentee-ballots-for-november

This includes:

- 582K on the "rollover" list of voters who checked a box to receive an absentee ballot for every election in a given cycle. That designation is for voters who are over 65, are disabled, are in the military, or living overseas.

- 175K have applied for a ballot by email, fax, mail or hand-delivering an application to their local election office.

- 41K (including me) have used the state's new online absentee request portal that launched last Friday.

Some county statistics:

- Leading the way is Fulton County, where more 80K total applications have been received, including 10K online requests.

- 13 of Georgia's 159 counties have seen more than 15% of their active voters already request an absentee ballot, including 20% of Greene County's voters.

- On the flip side, 11 counties have processed zero absentee ballot requests other than those on the rollover list.

Also:

- Ballots normally must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, but a recent federal court ruling changed the deadline to three days after Election Day as long as it is postmarked by Tuesday, November 3.

- All applications processed before September 15 will be paid for and mailed out by the state on September 18.  Counties can also begin processing - but not tabulating - absentee ballots two weeks before the election.

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Gass3268
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« Reply #19 on: September 03, 2020, 02:52:10 PM »

As of 9/1, there were 919,315 absentee ballot requests in Wisconsin. This is 30.89% of the total electorate in the 2016 Presidential election.

What's interesting is there seems to be more of an urban/suburban vs rural breakdown as to the counties with the highest %, rather than Democrat vs Republican. Here is the list:

DANE COUNTY   45.83%
MILWAUKEE COUNTY   38.17%
BROWN COUNTY   35.23%
DOOR COUNTY   33.11%
OZAUKEE COUNTY   32.91%
WAUKESHA COUNTY   32.50%
OUTAGAMIE COUNTY   31.71%
VILAS COUNTY   31.49%
KENOSHA COUNTY   30.79%
WINNEBAGO COUNTY   30.47%
BAYFIELD COUNTY   30.46%
LA CROSSE COUNTY   30.41%
SAUK COUNTY   30.01%
ROCK COUNTY   29.88%
RACINE COUNTY   29.46%
FLORENCE COUNTY   29.25%
DOUGLAS COUNTY   29.19%
MARATHON COUNTY   29.19%
CALUMET COUNTY   28.93%
IOWA COUNTY   28.84%
ASHLAND COUNTY   28.67%
PORTAGE COUNTY   28.36%
ST. CROIX COUNTY   28.34%
WASHINGTON COUNTY   27.58%
ONEIDA COUNTY   27.47%
SAWYER COUNTY   26.86%
JEFFERSON COUNTY   26.75%
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY   25.63%
COLUMBIA COUNTY   25.53%
WOOD COUNTY   25.43%
EAU CLAIRE COUNTY   25.16%
CHIPPEWA COUNTY   25.15%
WALWORTH COUNTY   25.12%
RICHLAND COUNTY   24.89%
LINCOLN COUNTY   24.88%
MENOMINEE COUNTY   24.62%
GREEN COUNTY   24.57%
IRON COUNTY   24.11%
PIERCE COUNTY   23.95%
FOREST COUNTY   23.85%
OCONTO COUNTY   23.59%
MARINETTE COUNTY   23.55%
WASHBURN COUNTY   23.44%
MANITOWOC COUNTY   23.39%
PRICE COUNTY   23.32%
WAUPACA COUNTY   22.47%
WAUSHARA COUNTY   22.24%
KEWAUNEE COUNTY   21.97%
VERNON COUNTY   21.74%
MARQUETTE COUNTY   21.62%
BURNETT COUNTY   21.62%
GREEN LAKE COUNTY   21.59%
ADAMS COUNTY   21.46%
DUNN COUNTY   21.13%
SHAWANO COUNTY   20.99%
MONROE COUNTY   20.81%
LAFAYETTE COUNTY   20.65%
FOND DU LAC COUNTY   20.64%
DODGE COUNTY   20.50%
RUSK COUNTY   20.25%
PEPIN COUNTY   20.11%
BARRON COUNTY   20.07%
TAYLOR COUNTY   18.39%
POLK COUNTY   18.02%
GRANT COUNTY   17.00%
JACKSON COUNTY   15.83%
CRAWFORD COUNTY   15.35%
JUNEAU COUNTY   14.41%
TREMPEALEAU COUNTY   13.60%
LANGLADE COUNTY   12.06%
CLARK COUNTY   8.90%
BUFFALO COUNTY   8.64%

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Holmes
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« Reply #20 on: September 03, 2020, 03:22:55 PM »

What's interesting is there seems to be more of an urban/suburban vs rural breakdown as to the counties with the highest %, rather than Democrat vs Republican.

Wasn't this also the case in the Supreme Court race this spring?
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Lent Marslink
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« Reply #21 on: September 03, 2020, 03:34:54 PM »

What's interesting is there seems to be more of an urban/suburban vs rural breakdown as to the counties with the highest %, rather than Democrat vs Republican.

Wasn't this also the case in the Supreme Court race this spring?

I think so. It makes sense that people in urban areas would request a ballot with long lines and busy schedules.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #22 on: September 03, 2020, 06:18:40 PM »

Tomorrow, North Carolina voters who requested an absentee ballot will begin to receive their ballots.

Voters will not be receiving their ballots tomorrow. Ballots will be sent out to voters around the state on September 4th and 5th, but voters have been told that the earliest they should expect their ballots is September 8th or 9th.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #23 on: September 03, 2020, 06:47:32 PM »

Here are two maps I've made of the mail vote requests in North Carolina through yesterday:

Partisan breakdown of requests by county:


Requests as a % of total turnout in 2016:
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Teflon Joe.
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« Reply #24 on: September 03, 2020, 07:30:47 PM »

WARNING:

This thread will show significantly higher absentee requests and people will go like "Wow, they are so HUGE compared to 2016, Biden is favoured !"

But in fact, no conclusion whatsoever can be drawn from those requests, because all the Trump voters will vote on election day.

And this will make up for all the increases in postal vote requests ...

Even pre Covid, since the Obama 2008 election, Democrats have had a huge edge in the early vote as well. In the early OH 2012 results, Obama was over 60%. Obama was winning the TX 2008 early vote as well. It is extremely biased towards the Democrats.
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