COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[It’s so Joever]

Death rate isn’t exactly spiralling with the second wave

Isn’t this still the first wave?

I thought they were saying this was still the first wave.

I like to think of it as wave 1.5
We definitely didn’t see cases reduce to the point we can call it a second wave (for a second wave, look at Balkan countries) but I feel like combining the April and July/August waves in one isn’t accurate either.

[It’s so Joever]

Oxford reporting that they are on track for a September release of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Amazing news!
Of course, this wasn’t entirely unexpected, given how much effort went into a vaccine but it still would be a remarkable milestone if true. I would think that even if they did release it by September (which is plausible), that the general public would not get access until much later. Hopefully healthcare workers get it first.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Oxford reporting that they are on track for a September release of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Where are you seeing this?
I am eagerly awaiting the full results of their Phase I trials to be published in the Lancet tomorrow.

[BudgieForce]

Oxford reporting that they are on track for a September release of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Where are you seeing this?
I am eagerly awaiting the full results of their Phase I trials to be published in the Lancet tomorrow.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-07-15/oxford-s-covid-19-vaccine-is-the-coronavirus-front-runner?utm_source=url_link

The lead researcher seems to think they could be done with human trials by September. And AstraZeneca can have the vaccine ready and out for public consumption in September.

It sounds very hopeful, but it doesnt seem like anything is written in stone.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Oxford reporting that they are on track for a September release of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Where are you seeing this?
I am eagerly awaiting the full results of their Phase I trials to be published in the Lancet tomorrow.

Whoops, sorry! Forgot the link!

And yes, me too!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Oxford reporting that they are on track for a September release of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Where are you seeing this?
I am eagerly awaiting the full results of their Phase I trials to be published in the Lancet tomorrow.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-07-15/oxford-s-covid-19-vaccine-is-the-coronavirus-front-runner?utm_source=url_link

The lead researcher seems to think they could be done with human trials by September. And AstraZeneca can have the vaccine ready and out for public consumption in September.

It sounds very hopeful, but it doesnt seem like anything is written in stone.

That sounds over-optimistic. Even if the trials are a resounding succes won't they have to do research for possible long-term side-effects?
There is a reason why most experts say that there will be no vaccine before spring 2021 at earlier.

[Roll Roons]

Oxford reporting that they are on track for a September release of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Where are you seeing this?
I am eagerly awaiting the full results of their Phase I trials to be published in the Lancet tomorrow.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-07-15/oxford-s-covid-19-vaccine-is-the-coronavirus-front-runner?utm_source=url_link

The lead researcher seems to think they could be done with human trials by September. And AstraZeneca can have the vaccine ready and out for public consumption in September.

It sounds very hopeful, but it doesnt seem like anything is written in stone.

That sounds over-optimistic. Even if the trials are a resounding succes won't they have to do research for possible long-term side-effects?
There is a reason why most experts say that there will be no vaccine before spring 2021 at earlier.

I feel great about this one. This vaccine was modified from an existing one for MERS, so it's known to be safe. And the people in charge of it are top researchers at one of the best universities in the world who have been working on this since December. I trust their judgement.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I feel great about this one. This vaccine was modified from an existing one for MERS, so it's known to be safe. And the people in charge of it are top researchers at one of the best universities in the world who have been working on this since December. I trust their judgement.

You have to be cautious as there has never been a successful vaccine developed for a novel Corona-virus.

Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), has sounded a note of caution about Oxford’s front-runner status. “You’ve got to be careful if you’re temporarily leading the way vs. having a vaccine that’s actually going to work,” he told the BBC recently.

History would suggest that scientific and medical breakthroughs are rarely made by people who want their photo all over the media like this case.

Scientific and medical researchers in Western Australia put their hand out for money on TV in April to research COVID-19 in vulnerable children. Only one problem with that research grant. We have no COVID-19 cases in Western Australia to research. But they still put the 'poor children' advertising on TV and raised money, clearly to fund their rent and salaries for breathing.

Just remember, scientists make no accounting and management sense, and accountants and managers make no scientific sense.

I think we will get a vaccine, but we have seen about 12 people in positions of authority in Universities and Industry getting their photos taken saying they are going to be leading the way in the vaccine research equation.

Given the spread at the moment worldwide, the 2 Billion doses sounds right though. Here is hoping we get it by October.

[Hammy]

I feel great about this one. This vaccine was modified from an existing one for MERS, so it's known to be safe. And the people in charge of it are top researchers at one of the best universities in the world who have been working on this since December. I trust their judgement.

You have to be cautious as there has never been a successful vaccine developed for a novel Corona-virus.

I don't disagree with the rest but part of the reason a vaccine wasn't developed previously was because the fatalities were so high, and incubation period so low, that MERS and the first SARS killed people too quickly to adequately spread it among the larger population to the extent this one has.

[jimrtex]

Death rate isn’t exactly spiralling with the second wave

Like I said much earlier in the thread, this virus is a completely different beast when the governors stop hotboxing 90-year-olds with it.

In a nursing home resident, death from the virus is a near-inevitability. In a healthy young person, it's a rare complication.

But what worries me is that we're going to settle into a groove of 800 deaths a day or so and just go "Eh, that's fine".

Are the nursing homes of Florida and Texas kept under some measures to avoid exposures? otherwise I would have thought Florida would be going by NY numbers by know considering the amount of nursing homes and retirement homes there

Texas has had a large share of deaths in nursing homes (close to half), but they figured out pretty quickly how to control access by outsiders. I assume any new patients are quarantined and there is regular testing of employees. My guess would be that intake is also down. If you were moving a parent into a nursing home, and knew you might not be able to touch them for the next several months, or perhaps never again, you might look at alternatives.

In New York they were moving infected patients out of the hospitals and into nursing homes.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I feel great about this one. This vaccine was modified from an existing one for MERS, so it's known to be safe. And the people in charge of it are top researchers at one of the best universities in the world who have been working on this since December. I trust their judgement.

You have to be cautious as there has never been a successful vaccine developed for a novel Corona-virus.

I don't disagree with the rest but part of the reason a vaccine wasn't developed previously was because the fatalities were so high, and incubation period so low, that MERS and the first SARS killed people too quickly to adequately spread it among the larger population to the extent this one has.

Keep in mind also that the vaccine, if developed, will not be functional in 100% of people.

It may only offer immunity to 60-70% of recipients.

The novel nature of the virus makes it very difficult to predict how a vaccine would work.

For MERS, a vaccine was developed, but never came to market.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 7/19 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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7/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,982,928 (+47,158 | ΔW Change: ↑16.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.61%)
• Deaths: 132,569 (+251 | ΔW Change: ↓11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

7/6: <M>

• Cases: 3,040,833 (+57,905 | ΔW Change: ↑29.47% | Σ Increase: ↑1.94%)
• Deaths: 132,979 (+410 | ΔW Change: ↑19.88% | Σ Increase: ↑0.31%)

7/7: <T>

• Cases: 3,097,084 (+56,251 | ΔW Change: ↑22.15% | Σ Increase: ↑1.85%)
• Deaths: 133,972 (+993 | ΔW Change: ↓26.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.75%)

7/8: <W>

• Cases: 3,158,734 (+61,650 | ΔW Change: ↑18.33% | Σ Increase: ↑1.99%)
• Deaths: 134,854 (+882 | ΔW Change: ↑30.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)

7/9: <Þ>

• Cases: 3,219,999 (+61,265 | ΔW Change: ↑7.04% | Σ Increase: ↑1.94%)
• Deaths: 135,822 (+968 | ΔW Change: ↑40.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

7/10: <F>

• Cases: 3,291,786 (+71,787 | ΔW Change: ↑34.44% | Σ Increase: ↑2.23%)
• Deaths: 136,671 (+849 | ΔW Change: ↑37.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.63%)

7/11: <S>

• Cases: 3,355,646 (+63,860 | ΔW Change: ↑41.34% | Σ Increase: ↑1.94%)
• Deaths: 137,403 (+732 | ΔW Change: ↑245.28% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)

7/12: <Sunday>

• Cases: 3,413,995 (+58,349 | ΔW Change: ↑23.73% | Σ Increase: ↑1.74%)
• Deaths: 137,782 (+379 | ΔW Change: ↑51.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

7/13: <M>

• Cases: 3,479,483 (+65,488 | ΔW Change: ↑13.10% | Σ Increase: ↑1.74%)
• Deaths: 138,247 (+465 | ΔW Change: ↑13.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

7/14: <T>

• Cases: 3,545,077 (+65,594 | ΔW Change: ↑16.61% | Σ Increase: ↑1.89%)
• Deaths: 139,143 (+896 | ΔW Change: ↓9.77% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

7/15: <W>

• Cases: 3,616,747 (+71,670 | ΔW Change: ↑13.61% | Σ Increase: ↑2.02%)
• Deaths: 140,140 (+997 | ΔW Change: ↑16.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

7/16: <Þ>

• Cases: 3,695,025 (+78,278 | ΔW Change: ↑27.77% | Σ Increase: ↑2.16%)
• Deaths: 141,118 (+978 | ΔW Change: ↑1.03% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)

7/17: <F>

• Cases: 3,770,012 (+74,987 | ΔW Change: ↑4.46% | Σ Increase: ↑2.03%)
• Deaths: 142,064 (+946 | ΔW Change: ↑11.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.67%)

7/18 (Yesterday): <S>

• Cases: 3,833,271 (+63,259 | ΔW Change: ↓0.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.68%)
• Deaths: 142,877 (+813 | ΔW Change: ↑11.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)

7/19 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 3,896,855 (+63,584 | ΔW Change: ↑8.97% | Σ Increase: ↑1.66%)
• Deaths: 143,269 (+392 | ΔW Change: ↑3.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I wish I could say it was looking like the projected mass surge wasn't happening, but I no longer trust the numbers.

[Crumpets]

This may have been posted already, but NYT put out a very detailed map of mask wearing in the US:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/17/upshot/coronavirus-face-mask-map.html

[Calthrina950]

This may have been posted already, but NYT put out a very detailed map of mask wearing in the US:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/17/upshot/coronavirus-face-mask-map.html

This is a very interesting article, and pretty much correlates with my expectations. I went up to Denver today, and had the chance to drive through Downtown. I'll leave aside my observations on the state of Downtown Denver (to put it mildly, it is looking horrible), but the majority of people I saw were not wearing masks, at least when walking outside or moving between stores. And when passing by stores and restaurants, it was a mixed story with regards to who was wearing them. Interestingly enough, Denver made masks mandatory over two months ago, long before Polis issued his order this past week. So his order had no impact on what they were already doing.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

On the second stimulus front: the Senate is back in session today until August 6th.  

McConnell and the GOP are apparently putting the finishing touches on a counter-proposal to the HEROES Act passed by the Democratic-run House majority.

Per CNET:

"We go back in session next week and in the course of the next couple of weeks, I'll be laying out in the Senate another package," Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, said on July 14. "We are looking at another direct payment."

The most broadly intriguing portion of the new legislation will surround any future payments, from unemployment bonuses to direct checks -- particularly for individuals who were unable to cover living expenses with the first payment and/or those left out of the first round (college students and adult dependents, etc. etc).  The HEROES Act accounts for the latter, providing $1200 to the claimants of any adult dependents for a maximum of $3600/three dependents per household. 

McConnell has indicated that he wants a spending cap of $1 trillion (compared to the $3 trillion in spending proposed by the HEROES Act).  There has been speculation that this means an even greater exclusion for payments, notably in regards to a maximum salary exclusion (limiting payment to those making under $40,000, though  it isn't clear if this refers to individual income or total household income).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Here’s the Lancet editor’s summary of the two vaccine results they are publishing today (Oxford and one from China)

https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620316111.pdf

It looks like the Oxford vaccine produced a t-cell response in all subjects, and an antibody response in more than 90% of subjects.  No serious adverse effects reported.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Here’s the Lancet editor’s summary of the two vaccine results they are publishing today (Oxford and one from China)

https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620316111.pdf

It looks like the Oxford vaccine produced a t-cell response in all subjects, and an antibody response in more than 90% of subjects.  No serious adverse effects reported.

Excellent!

Still a ways to go and aiming for September might be on the optimistic end of the scale, but any positive news is always a plus!

[Person Man]

Here’s the Lancet editor’s summary of the two vaccine results they are publishing today (Oxford and one from China)

https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620316111.pdf

It looks like the Oxford vaccine produced a t-cell response in all subjects, and an antibody response in more than 90% of subjects.  No serious adverse effects reported.

Excellent!

Still a ways to go and aiming for September might be on the optimistic end of the scale, but any positive news is always a plus!

With any tech project like this, if it takes just twice the time they said it was going to, I call it a success.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Per Marketwatch: White House COVID press-briefings return starting tomprrow at 5pm EST (ft. DJ Donald J. Trump)
 

[Landslide Lyndon]

Per Marketwatch: White House COVID press-briefings return starting tomprrow at 5pm EST (ft. DJ Donald J. Trump)
 

LOL.

[BudgieForce]

Per Marketwatch: White House COVID press-briefings return starting tomprrow at 5pm EST (ft. DJ Donald J. Trump)
 

Why bother?

In fact, I'd argue him restarting the briefings is tantamount to admitting his administration has failed to contain the virus the first go around.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The Republican party is a death cult.

https://twitter.com/stltoday/status/1285199041417158663

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Per Marketwatch: White House COVID press-briefings return starting tomprrow at 5pm EST (ft. DJ Donald J. Trump)
 

Why bother?

In fact, I'd argue him restarting the briefings is tantamount to admitting his administration has failed to contain the virus the first go around.

It's not about the pandemic. It's about Trump. He's going mad without a stage to stand on, without obvious indicators of how important he is and how everyone pays attention to him. These briefings will likely cement in the current polling as he plays Mad Trump on TV while both the pandemic and civil unrest gets worse.

I'm personally convinced that the Trumpublicans are going full Helter Skelter. They don't think they can win the election, so they're going to throw the nation into chaos in the hopes that they can leverage that to stay in power.

[Person Man]

Per Marketwatch: White House COVID press-briefings return starting tomprrow at 5pm EST (ft. DJ Donald J. Trump)
 

Why bother?

In fact, I'd argue him restarting the briefings is tantamount to admitting his administration has failed to contain the virus the first go around.

It's not about the pandemic. It's about Trump. He's going mad without a stage to stand on, without obvious indicators of how important he is and how everyone pays attention to him. These briefings will likely cement in the current polling as he plays Mad Trump on TV while both the pandemic and civil unrest gets worse.

I'm personally convinced that the Trumpublicans are going full Helter Skelter. They don't think they can win the election, so they're going to throw the nation into chaos in the hopes that they can leverage that to stay in power.

Or do what they did when they lost last time. Try to stop their situation from getting better so they can come in and "save" it. Last time they tried it, it was a qualified success.