COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Del Tachi]

Even though we are months removed, and the weather is now warm, in my head it still feels like it’s March. Anyone else?

Yeah people have wasted two months of their lives on this; fortunately, that’s starting to change now as lockdowns are being relaxed. 

"Wasted?"

I really don't get why people are acting like not being able to go to group events is "wasting" one's life. I've been carrying on with life pretty much as normal, though obviously not making impulse shopping trips. I can go to the park, I can read (libraries being closed is tough, but at least here they're open for curbside service), I can still talk to to people on the phone or even video chat, I can order delicious food from local restaurants, I can do crafts, I can train my pets, I can play video games, etc etc etc. Why is social distancing "wasting" life?

The mental health impacts of this are real and we must be aware of making sure we get the interaction we need, even if it's different than normal. But anyone who is "wasting" their life cannot blame the virus for it: there's plenty to do that doesn't require being in close proximity to others.

I can't help but compare people complaining about this to a spoiled child who has way more toys than they can ever play with complaining when some of the toys are taken away, even though there are still dozens in reach.

Well, I suppose not all of us live entirely shut-in, online lives like you.

I've known multiple couples who will have to miss out on the lifetime of memories a wedding ceremony would have provided.  Families have been unable to celebrate birthdays, graduations, retirements and other milestones.  My family has had to experience the pain of having to bury love ones without an appropriate funeral service.  The peace and community afforded by a simple church service has not been felt by most in this country for over two months.   Social distancing isn't a minor inconvenience, it's indefinitely suspended the things that make life worth the living for most people.  That's wasted time.

And that is, of course, to say nothing about how lockdowns have erased years' worth of sweat equity for most small businesses, given an entire generation the most dismal job market in 90 years,  pushed more Americans toward alcohol and drug addiction, put America's most underserved schoolchildren even further behind, and plunged tens of millions of lives into more precarious situations than ever before.  The past two months will have a lifetime of negative ramifications for these people.  And all for what?

People have sacrificed immensely over the past 10 weeks.  In most places, we've avoided the dire predictions of death and resource shortages that were used as justification for cajoling society into an abrupt standstill.  People are beginning to move on with their lives, and that means getting back out and being human again.  The least our public officials can do is be willing to update their priors and admit that society-wide lockdowns on schools, businesses and workplaces were mass overreactions. 

[emailking]

It was very very difficult for some (most?) people and I acknowledge it was very difficult, but I don't think it's fair to say it was wasted time because we were able to save many lives, possibly millions, and were able to prevent millions of infections that could have led to serious lifetime health issues for many of those people.

[Koharu]

Even though we are months removed, and the weather is now warm, in my head it still feels like it’s March. Anyone else?

Yeah people have wasted two months of their lives on this; fortunately, that’s starting to change now as lockdowns are being relaxed. 

"Wasted?"

I really don't get why people are acting like not being able to go to group events is "wasting" one's life. I've been carrying on with life pretty much as normal, though obviously not making impulse shopping trips. I can go to the park, I can read (libraries being closed is tough, but at least here they're open for curbside service), I can still talk to to people on the phone or even video chat, I can order delicious food from local restaurants, I can do crafts, I can train my pets, I can play video games, etc etc etc. Why is social distancing "wasting" life?

The mental health impacts of this are real and we must be aware of making sure we get the interaction we need, even if it's different than normal. But anyone who is "wasting" their life cannot blame the virus for it: there's plenty to do that doesn't require being in close proximity to others.

I can't help but compare people complaining about this to a spoiled child who has way more toys than they can ever play with complaining when some of the toys are taken away, even though there are still dozens in reach.

Umm, no, most of what living life is requires being around other people.  Basically all you can do alone is distract yourself from the fact that you are alone with entertainment and stuff.  If you actually support social distancing (which has been a stupid concept from day 1), you could make every single one of those same arguments for seasonal flu.

Fortunately, I live in a place where people have brains and have largely given up on social distancing out of fear for a virus that is basically the flu in terms of death rate.

In fact, I've come to believe that the proper policy would have been literally the opposite of social distancing, where we encouraged everyone young and healthy to have even greater social contact than usual to try to hit herd immunity within a couple weeks or so while sparing the tiny minority of people for whom the coronavirus is actually a concern from the virus.

Even in the strictest lockdowns, most people aren’t alone, they are with their families.   I’d have to think you believe this is meaningful.   And you can still interact with everyone else online if you want, which is what most of our regular interactions are now anyway outside of family and work.

My daily life didn’t really change much as a result of the lockdowns, since I was already on leave from my job to be with my newborn daughter.  Honestly, the thing I’m missing most is the opportunity to be alone in my office (to get a break from the family for a while).

I'd imagine it's pretty nice to be an introvert who lives with a family right now. I'm a single extrovert who lives alone. I designed my life to be constantly out and about with other people. This is hell for me. The last time I touched another human (except when I needed bloodwork done in April) was March 14th. My hobbies and interests all involve being around other people, even the ones I can do on my own. I bake for others. I watch shows so I can talk about them when I'm with others. I go to church to form community with others. And suddenly those have all been ripped away from me. If one of my parents were to be wasting away, dying in a hospital from this disease, I would be breaking CDC recommendations if I so much as got a hug from a friend.

Look, I'm not one of the #ReopenEverything crazies. I am trying to diligently stick to the instructions of the state of Connecticut. I do not think life should go back to how it was until we have a vaccine. But to dismiss the feelings of folks who miss being around people out of hand—not just to say "this is hard, and scary, and I can understand how hard this must be in your life, but it's a part of the shared sacrifice we have to make", but instead to compare being an extrovert to being a "spoiled child" and blithely insist that "most of our regular interactions are [online] now"—will just entrench those attitudes further. I am miserable being on my own. The ways that structure my life and bring me joy are illegal right now.

So of course this feels like wasted time to me. I am not anxious every day like I was at first, but I haven't felt real joy for months, now, because the most joyous days of my life are ones where I feel surrounded by people. The analogy for me is not to a "spoiled child"; it's to a street urchin, being directed to the dumpster of social comfort found on Zoom or online while forbidding them from the restaurant that the dumpster belongs to. If you want to tell the urchins why they can't enter the restaurant, you need to start by acknowledging that you're feeding them a crappy meal, not by bragging about the home garden you have.

I'm an extrovert as well. I didn't mention anything about family. It's very difficult to not be going to visit my elderly dad, who I normally visit once a month.

These are difficult times, and not being able to recharge fully is tough. But this time certainly isn't wasted. Not having lots of joy doesn't mean life is wasted. If that were the case, most of my life would be "wasted" since depression is a jerk. But despite the challenges, I keep learning, admiring art and beauty, etc etc. People claiming this time is "wasted" have only themselves to blame. If you only think being around other people is meaningful, then most people waste significant portions of their lives.

Even if it's not bringing you joy and is a struggle, things you're doing right now are not a waste. If you're working, you're contributing. If you're a caretaker or parent, you're contributing. If you're learning, you're not wasting time. Even watching TV, one of the most passive ways to spend time, isn't necessarily a waste, and most people have access to more than just watching TV during their waking hours.

[Gass3268]

The 19% in Kentucky are really angry. Disgusting!

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1264678178272030722?s=20

[It’s so Joever]

Right wing anti-lockdown Americans, please watch or listen to this video.

We could end coronavirus pandemic by July 4th

We can't "end" the pandemic, we may reduce it's numbers, but it will resurge in the winter no matter what. We should be fast forwarding to herd immunity.

Imho, we could have ended it back in early March, but as soon as it hit and spread through developing countries, it became impossible to prevent. By now it’s definitely impossible for us to end the pandemic without a vaccine/mutation/immunity.

[T'Chenka]

Right wing anti-lockdown Americans, please watch or listen to this video.

We could end coronavirus pandemic by July 4th

We can't "end" the pandemic, we may reduce it's numbers, but it will resurge in the winter no matter what. We should be fast forwarding to herd immunity.

The video says that if you actually listen to it.

[Tekken_Guy]

Right wing anti-lockdown Americans, please watch or listen to this video.

We could end coronavirus pandemic by July 4th

We can't "end" the pandemic, we may reduce it's numbers, but it will resurge in the winter no matter what. We should be fast forwarding to herd immunity.

Imho, we could have ended it back in early March, but as soon as it hit and spread through developing countries, it became impossible to prevent. By now it’s definitely impossible for us to end the pandemic without a vaccine/mutation/immunity.

The U.S’s main responsibility should be to protect our own citizens, not foreign countries. Then just do strict controls on foreign travel like we did with Ebola.

[Del Tachi]

Right wing anti-lockdown Americans, please watch or listen to this video.

We could end coronavirus pandemic by July 4th

1) who is this guy, even?

2) contact tracing with enforced mandatory self-isolation is not a realistic outcome in the U.S. or any other Western democracy, and the social/political costs of such aren’t worth the risks.

This “plan” deserves to be laughed out of town. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

2) contact tracing with enforced mandatory self-isolation is not a realistic outcome in the U.S. or any other Western democracy, and the social/political costs of such aren’t worth the risks.

Really? It worked pretty well here.

[Dr. Arch]

A country full of stupidity:

[Del Tachi]

2) contact tracing with enforced mandatory self-isolation is not a realistic outcome in the U.S. or any other Western democracy, and the social/political costs of such aren’t worth the risks.

Really? It worked pretty well here.

Greece is doing less testing than Kyrgyzstan (population adjusted, Greece ranks #81 in testing; the US ranks #36, ahead of Germany and Switzerland). 

So no, “your country” isn’t doing this.  Did you even watch the video?  No country is forcibly isolating all virus contacts

[Beet]

There's absolutely no evidence that accelerating towards herd immunity works. First of all, the virus does all sorts of unknown damage to your body, not only your lungs but cardiovascular system, nervous system, digestive system, reproductive system and mental health. Many of these effects are long term. The military is concerned enough that it is not even accepting any recruits from recoverees. It also has unknown effects on children and in areas of very high spread we have seen child mortality. It is also not known how long immunity even lasts even once you've gotten it.

Further, even in areas of very high spread like Spain and Italy, antibody tests show only 5%-10% of the population have them. That would have to be 40% to 70% to reach herd immunity. So you'd be looking at what some of the worst countries have already been through, plus another 4 to 14 times.

Then there's the fact that there are no successful examples of herd immunity. The prime argument for it is supposed to be economic, but so far Sweden has taken about the same economic hit as its neighbors despite having worse health outcomes. There is no trade off. It has nothing to do with mandates from authorities either; if the outbreak is bad enough people will simply voluntarily curtail their activity. In fact the worse the outbreak is, the longer and worse the economic damage will be (with all the consequences that of that.) Meanwhile there are countries who have reopened their economies more or less fully already, but it was due to successful containment, not herd immunity.

That leaves containment. The notion that the virus can't be contained is thus far unproven. I mean look no further than New York City, which even six weeks ago was the epicenter of the U.S. outbreak, and now is seeing steadily declining numbers on a regular basis. Obviously, the more strict you are, the faster the virus can be contained, but the idea that it absolutely requires measures that won't fly in a democratic country is off base. Not only is it possible to contain the virus, but a number of states have already done so or are the path to doing so.

[T'Chenka]

Right wing anti-lockdown Americans, please watch or listen to this video.

We could end coronavirus pandemic by July 4th

1) who is this guy, even?

2) contact tracing with enforced mandatory self-isolation is not a realistic outcome in the U.S. or any other Western democracy, and the social/political costs of such aren’t worth the risks.

This “plan” deserves to be laughed out of town. 

1) He's one of the most neutral and well-respected leftist news and opinion shows on YouTube

2) there are no "risks", what are you talking about?

This "plan" has bi-partisan.support amd is based on scientific and epidemiological recommemdations.

[emailking]

2) contact tracing with enforced mandatory self-isolation is not a realistic outcome in the U.S. or any other Western democracy, and the social/political costs of such aren’t worth the risks.

Really? It worked pretty well here.

Greece is doing less testing than Kyrgyzstan (population adjusted, Greece ranks #81 in testing; the US ranks #36, ahead of Germany and Switzerland). 

So no, “your country” isn’t doing this.  Did you even watch the video?  No country is forcibly isolating all virus contacts

He says absolutely nothing about forced isolation.

[DINGO Joe]

White House imposes coronavirus travel ban on Brazil

Trump had already banned certain travelers from China, Europe, the United Kingdom and Ireland and, to a lesser extent, Iran. He has not moved to ban travel from Russia, which has the world’s third-highest caseload.

Personally, I assumed that travel from Brazil and Russia had been banned long ago, especially given that Brazil seems the most likely county to exceed the US in deaths

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 5/24 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>

5/10: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,367,638 (+20,329 | Δ Change: ↓20.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 80,787 (+750 | Δ Change: ↓47.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

5/11:

• Cases: 1,385,834 (+18,196 | Δ Change: ↓10.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.33%)
• Deaths: 81,795 (+1,008 | Δ Change: ↑34.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)

5/12:

• Cases: 1,408,155 (+22,321 | Δ Change: ↑22.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.61%)
• Deaths: 83,377 (+1,582 | Δ Change: ↑56.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)

5/13:

• Cases: 1,430,348 (+22,193 | Δ Change: ↓0.57% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 85,197 (+1,820 | Δ Change: ↑15.44% | Σ Increase: ↑2.18%)

5/14:

• Cases: 1,456,828 (+26,480 | Δ Change: ↑19.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.85%)
• Deaths: 86,901 (+1,704 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑2.00%)

5/15 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,483,736 (+26,908 | Δ Change: ↑1.62% | Σ Increase: ↑1.85%)
• Deaths: 88,479 (+1,578 | Δ Change: ↓7.39% | Σ Increase: ↑1.82%)

5/16:

• Cases: 1,505,033 (+21,297 | Δ Change: ↓20.85% | Σ Increase: ↑1.44%)
• Deaths: 89,511 (+1,032 | Δ Change: ↓34.60% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)

5/17: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,526,842 (+21,809 | Δ Change: ↑2.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.44%)
• Deaths: 90,973 (+1,462 | Δ Change: ↑41.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)

5/18:

• Cases: 1,550,294 (+23,452 | Δ Change: ↑7.53% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)
• Deaths: 91,981 (+1,008 | Δ Change: ↓31.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)

5/19:

• Cases: 1,570,583 (+20,289 | Δ Change: ↓13.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
• Deaths: 93,533 (+1,552 | Δ Change: ↑53.97% | Σ Increase: ↑1.69%)

5/20:

• Cases: 1,591,991 (+21,408 | Δ Change: ↑5.52% | Σ Increase: ↑1.36%)
• Deaths: 94,994 (+1,461 | Δ Change: ↓5.86% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)

5/21:

• Cases: 1,620,902 (+28,911 | Δ Change: ↑35.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.82%)
• Deaths: 96,354 (+1,360 | Δ Change: ↓6.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.43%)

5/22:

• Cases: 1,645,094 (+24,192 | Δ Change: ↓16.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.49%)
• Deaths: 97,647 (+1,293 | Δ Change: ↓4.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)

5/23 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,666,828 (+21,734 | Δ Change: ↓10.16% | Σ Increase: ↑1.32%)
• Deaths: 98,683 (+1,036 | Δ Change: ↓19.88% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

5/24 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,686,436 (+19,608 | Δ Change: ↓9.78% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 99,300 (+617 | Δ Change: ↓40.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.63%)

[Del Tachi]

2) contact tracing with enforced mandatory self-isolation is not a realistic outcome in the U.S. or any other Western democracy, and the social/political costs of such aren’t worth the risks.

Really? It worked pretty well here.

Greece is doing less testing than Kyrgyzstan (population adjusted, Greece ranks #81 in testing; the US ranks #36, ahead of Germany and Switzerland). 

So no, “your country” isn’t doing this.  Did you even watch the video?  No country is forcibly isolating all virus contacts

He says absolutely nothing about forced isolation.

In the video, he literally talks about the government seizing control of hotel rooms to forcibly inter positive cases and their contacts. 

[emailking]

In the video, he literally talks about the government seizing control of hotel rooms to forcibly inter positive cases and their contacts. 

No he does not. He says the hotel rooms would be needed and self isolating is needed. He says nothing about the hotel rooms being seized. He says nothing about people being forced to self isolate. People can agree to follow a plan without it being forced on them you know. Most people would want to self isolate after confirmed contact with a deadly disease, especially if they're going to be paid a stipend for doing so as he suggests.

[Del Tachi]

People can agree to follow a plan without it being forced on them you know.

😂😂😂

What is the point of a plan that doesn't have the (physical) force of government behind it? 

"Social distance and self-isolate if symptomatic" was the same advice all those folks at the Lake of the Ozarks got, too.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

And that is, of course, to say nothing about how lockdowns have erased years' worth of sweat equity for most small businesses, given an entire generation the most dismal job market in 90 years,  pushed more Americans toward alcohol and drug addiction, put America's most underserved schoolchildren even further behind, and plunged tens of millions of lives into more precarious situations than ever before.  The past two months will have a lifetime of negative ramifications for these people.  And all for what?

I notice you don't mention the (so-called) job creators - the multi-millionaires and billionaires who have seen lifetimes of carefully nurtured capital vanishing like smoke. No mention of the titans of American industry and finance, the Fortune 500 companies adrift without hope of rescue, doomed to financial collapse. Neither did you mention the airlines - the pulsing heartbeat of America's connections around the world, going out of business as I type. Nor did you lament the ongoing collapse of the stock market, plunging ever-downward as it reflects the suffering of our nation's body politic.

Billionaires Are Getting Richer During The COVID-19 Pandemic While Most Americans Suffer
Airlines got the sweetest COVID-19 bailout around
US Fed injects $1.5tn to markets as Dow and FTSE suffer worst day since 1987
The economy is in free fall. So why isn’t the stock market?

the Federal Reserve and, to a perhaps lesser but still significant extent, Congress have taken extraordinary measures to pump money into the economy and prop up markets. The amount of spending they’ve done so far amounts to about one-third of GDP in a very short period of time, and that’s calming investors’ nerves. “The fundamentals don’t matter quite as much with that kind of liquidity deluge,” said Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at Compass Point Research & Trading.

But what about those small business, those schoolchildren, those tens of millions living in dread of what tomorrow will bring?
The Senate won’t consider more coronavirus stimulus until early June

While the House approved a $3 trillion round of stimulus last week, Senate Republicans dismissed the legislation and have yet to offer any alternative of their own. The recess, which was previously scheduled, comes as top Republicans like Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy question the urgency of additional funding and raise concerns about the national debt.

“I don’t see the need right now,” McCarthy told CNN on Tuesday. McConnell was more circumspect, but similarly hesitant. “We’ll discuss a way forward in the next couple weeks,” he said the same day.

People have sacrificed immensely over the past 10 weeks.  In most places, we've avoided the dire predictions of death and resource shortages that were used as justification for cajoling society into an abrupt standstill.  People are beginning to move on with their lives, and that means getting back out and being human again.  The least our public officials can do is be willing to update their priors and admit that society-wide lockdowns on schools, businesses and workplaces were mass overreactions.  

https://twitter.com/gdinwiddie/status/1250130371242582016

[emailking]

What I took from his plan is that many more tests and contact tracers are needed, and possible cases need to be afforded accommodations and a stipend, which isn't happening now for the most part. He identifies 3 levels of lockdown based on how many cases there are in a region. He doesn't say or imply that anyone would be forced to self isolate which is your whole basis for laughing off a pretty sensible plan.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

You don't need to isolate all contacts. You test contacts, and isolate the positive contacts.

There are feasibility issues in tracking down and testing all contacts, but it's an excellent starting point for building a system which tracks the spread of the virus. Perfection is the goal but settling for suboptimality is still much much better than relying on people volunteering themselves for testing at drive-thrus.

[It’s so Joever]

Contact tracing is important, you won’t get everyone, but you can actually test the right people. Taiwan is doing it well.

[It’s so Joever]

2) contact tracing with enforced mandatory self-isolation is not a realistic outcome in the U.S. or any other Western democracy, and the social/political costs of such aren’t worth the risks.

Really? It worked pretty well here.

Greece is doing less testing than Kyrgyzstan (population adjusted, Greece ranks #81 in testing; the US ranks #36, ahead of Germany and Switzerland). 

So no, “your country” isn’t doing this.  Did you even watch the video?  No country is forcibly isolating all virus contacts

Circle A represents Greece having a contact tracing system.
Circle B represents testing per capita.

As you can see from this Venn Diagram, there is no overlap.

[Del Tachi]

2) contact tracing with enforced mandatory self-isolation is not a realistic outcome in the U.S. or any other Western democracy, and the social/political costs of such aren’t worth the risks.

Really? It worked pretty well here.

Greece is doing less testing than Kyrgyzstan (population adjusted, Greece ranks #81 in testing; the US ranks #36, ahead of Germany and Switzerland). 

So no, “your country” isn’t doing this.  Did you even watch the video?  No country is forcibly isolating all virus contacts

Circle A represents Greece having a contact tracing system.
Circle B represents testing per capita.

As you can see from this Venn Diagram, there is no overlap.

You're not going to get a lot of mileage out of contact tracing in a country that is not testing adequately to identify the vast majority of cases (Greece has only identified 3k cases, in a country of almost 11 million).  Ramping up testing is a necessary precedent of implementing robust contact tracing (that is, assuming containment is off-the-table).  That's how the two are related.