Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Walmart_shopper]

Fellow Israelis correct me, but is it just me seeing much less panic from everyone- Likud, KL, LGM, Yamina, Haredim etc?

Yes. It's downright freaky. The right is beginning to freak out about the high Arab turnout, but that's all I've seen. I wonder if everyone just doesn't really know what exactly is going on and doesn't want to he the boy who cried wolf. If you feel really good about things, you want to just sit back and not do anything to spoil it by rallying the other side or drawing attention to the numbers. What is odd is that literally everyone seems pretty calm about where they are at right now.

[Oryxslayer]

Fellow Israelis correct me, but is it just me seeing much less panic from everyone- Likud, KL, LGM, Yamina, Haredim etc?

Could be either because they know no one is going to buy it or everyone already knows there’s a deadlock in bound

Probably because the threshold shouldn't be a factor to anyone but Otzma if polls are to be trusted...

[Walmart_shopper]

2.7% increase. I’ll refine my prediction Likud 35 B&W 32 JL 16

Watch them get 17 mandates.

I think KL and Likud end up tied. The left bloc should have maybe 58 or 59 total. But I don't pretend to know anything more than anyone else.

[danny]

47% turnout by 16:00, up from 44.3% in September and 42.8% in April.

[danny]

Instead gevalt campaign, Likud is phrasing things in a hopeful way, saying that they are a seat away from 61, and that supporters just need to turn up and we will have government.

[Hnv1]

47% turnout by 16:00, up from 44.3% in September and 42.8% in April.

Yet similar to 2013 which ended up with 67%. The 18:00 will be the crucial ones

[danny]

One report says that Umm al Fahm, a large Arab town in the Triangle region of the lower Galilee, has a turnout of 33% as of 1400.  That is roughly the TOTAL turnout from September. Localities don't publish their own turnout data, and numbers usually come from the parties running. So season to taste.

Turnout in Umm Al Fahm was 51% in September. I have learnt to ignore these election day turnout for specific towns or sector, and just assume that they are made up.

[Walmart_shopper]

One report says that Umm al Fahm, a large Arab town in the Triangle region of the lower Galilee, has a turnout of 33% as of 1400.  That is roughly the TOTAL turnout from September. Localities don't publish their own turnout data, and numbers usually come from the parties running. So season to taste.

Turnout in Umm Al Fahm was 51% in September. I have learnt to ignore these election day turnout for specific towns or sector, and just assume that they are made up.

The September number was just my mistake. The 33% turnout number for 1400 turnout appears to be real, which would put Umm al Fahm well above the September.

Also, reports from the Haredi sector are that turnout is flacid. That would honestly surprise me.

[Estrella]

One report says that Umm al Fahm, a large Arab town in the Triangle region of the lower Galilee, has a turnout of 33% as of 1400.  That is roughly the TOTAL turnout from September. Localities don't publish their own turnout data, and numbers usually come from the parties running. So season to taste.

Turnout in Umm Al Fahm was 51% in September. I have learnt to ignore these election day turnout for specific towns or sector, and just assume that they are made up.

The September number was just my mistake. The 33% turnout number for 1400 turnout appears to be real, which would put Umm al Fahm well above the September.

Also, reports from the Haredi sector are that turnout is flacid. That would honestly surprise me.

Maybe the synagogues are more concerned with Purim than calling people and getting out the vote as they usually do?

[Hnv1]

One report says that Umm al Fahm, a large Arab town in the Triangle region of the lower Galilee, has a turnout of 33% as of 1400.  That is roughly the TOTAL turnout from September. Localities don't publish their own turnout data, and numbers usually come from the parties running. So season to taste.

Turnout in Umm Al Fahm was 51% in September. I have learnt to ignore these election day turnout for specific towns or sector, and just assume that they are made up.

The September number was just my mistake. The 33% turnout number for 1400 turnout appears to be real, which would put Umm al Fahm well above the September.

Also, reports from the Haredi sector are that turnout is flacid. That would honestly surprise me.

Maybe the synagogues are more concerned with Purim than calling people and getting out the vote as they usually do?

Purim is a minimal holiday. 1 day off to get drunk.

[Oryxslayer]

One report says that Umm al Fahm, a large Arab town in the Triangle region of the lower Galilee, has a turnout of 33% as of 1400.  That is roughly the TOTAL turnout from September. Localities don't publish their own turnout data, and numbers usually come from the parties running. So season to taste.

Turnout in Umm Al Fahm was 51% in September. I have learnt to ignore these election day turnout for specific towns or sector, and just assume that they are made up.

The September number was just my mistake. The 33% turnout number for 1400 turnout appears to be real, which would put Umm al Fahm well above the September.

Also, reports from the Haredi sector are that turnout is flacid. That would honestly surprise me.

Do we have anything concrete from Bnei Brak/Bet Shemesh/Jerusalem/Safed? That's what makes the Arab numbers interesting, since there is actually something concrete.

If true though, it might be because the Haredim have a high floor and a low ceiling. They will always turnout x voters no matter the circumstances, be they positive or negative. If turnout is rising around x, x looks smaller, whereas if turnout is dropping x looks bigger.

[America Needs R'hllor]

56.3% turnout as of 18:00, 3% more than last time. I don't have a good feeling. Apparently KL think that it's either from the Arabs or Likud, and are "very worried".

[danny]

56.3% turnout by 18:00, up from 53.5% in September and 52% in April.

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/oryxmaps/status/1234519350192766976?s=21

[Hnv1]

56.3% turnout as of 18:00, 3% more than last time. I don't have a good feeling. Apparently KL think that it's either from the Arabs or Likud, and are "very worried".

Could be both as I predicted and tomorrow morning is going to be very very odd

[Walmart_shopper]

56.3% turnout as of 18:00, 3% more than last time. I don't have a good feeling. Apparently KL think that it's either from the Arabs or Likud, and are "very worried".

Yeah, KL is finally starting to pull the Gevald card.  They say turnout is low in their strongholds
Who knows if it's for real. I actuslly can buy the idea that Haredi turnout is down but Likud and Arab turnout is high. But I have no clue what that would do tothe bloc math.

[Oryxslayer]

snip

You know I'm right here .

 I will be downloading the govt's excel sheet live tonight and have a 'assembly line' set up to get community-level GIS maps out fast with each large vote update. I hope to be able to visually explain the expect counting bias that always sees Jerusalem go ahead of the rest of the country.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

56.3% turnout as of 18:00, 3% more than last time. I don't have a good feeling. Apparently KL think that it's either from the Arabs or Likud, and are "very worried".

Yeah, KL is finally starting to pull the Gevald card.  They say turnout is low in their strongholds
Who knows if it's for real.

It wouldn't be an Israeli election without somebody gevalting.

[Walmart_shopper]

Camile Fuchs, Channel 13's pollster and probably the best in the business, says that exit poll data looks very different from pre-election polling.

I will pay shekels to whomever can tell me what THAT means.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Any sense of Lieberman's strength? Where is his base?

[Oryxslayer]

Any sense of Lieberman's strength? Where is his base?

His base is post-soviet migrants. Here's a map I made of his coalition last time around.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Revising my prediction:

Likud - 36
KL - 32
JL - 16
Shas - 9
MLG - 8
Yamina - 7
UTJ - 7
YB - 5

Right 59, left 56, Lieb 5

[Donerail]

Shas has been fined for, among other offenses, distributing propaganda that claims voting Shas will protect you from the coronavirus
https://twitter.com/jeremysharon/status/1234473587509284866

Likud has been fined for taking voters to polls in limousines (!)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Shas has been fined for, among other offenses, distributing propaganda that claims voting Shas will protect you from the coronavirus
https://twitter.com/jeremysharon/status/1234473587509284866
Likud has been fined for taking voters to polls in limousines (!)

Shows you two things:

1. Shas is a sect. Nothing less. They're the party closest to a religious fundamentalist sect that I know of.
2. Lol "anti elitist Likud"

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Likud has been fined for taking voters to polls in limousines (!)

Galaxy brain: Be a sociologically right-wing Israeli voter, get a free limo ride to the polls, roll into the polling booth, and vote KL.