Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Walmart_shopper]

27.6% turnout as of 12, the highest since 1999. I'm not sure if it's a good sign.

If Arab turnout is as high as we are hearing then this is exactly the kind of number you'd expect.

[Walmart_shopper]

According to Jack Khoury the Arab vote stands at 15%. No clue if that's as of 10 or as of 12, when he reported that figure. In any case if the 12pm Arab turnout is between 15 and 20 percent that would be a fairly solid indicator of a good night for the Joint List--assuming, of course, that overall turnout remains less than 23 or 24 percent as of 12.

The 15% figure is indeed from a count as of 10-11am. If true that would, of course, be a very strong early number.

That would put them higher than average Jewish areas and on course to 16 seats. Highly doubt it

No, it would be more like 18 or 19 mandates. But I agree that it likely is not quite so high. In any case 16 mandates is totally realistic right now.

[Hnv1]

According to Jack Khoury the Arab vote stands at 15%. No clue if that's as of 10 or as of 12, when he reported that figure. In any case if the 12pm Arab turnout is between 15 and 20 percent that would be a fairly solid indicator of a good night for the Joint List--assuming, of course, that overall turnout remains less than 23 or 24 percent as of 12.

The 15% figure is indeed from a count as of 10-11am. If true that would, of course, be a very strong early number.

That would put them higher than average Jewish areas and on course to 16 seats. Highly doubt it

No, it would be more like 18 or 19 mandates. But I agree that it likely is not quite so high. In any case 16 mandates is totally realistic right now.

It’s proportional, I’m putting it on 16 because Likud turnout is also on the rise it seems. B&W might be in for a tough night I feel

[Walmart_shopper]

According to Jack Khoury the Arab vote stands at 15%. No clue if that's as of 10 or as of 12, when he reported that figure. In any case if the 12pm Arab turnout is between 15 and 20 percent that would be a fairly solid indicator of a good night for the Joint List--assuming, of course, that overall turnout remains less than 23 or 24 percent as of 12.

The 15% figure is indeed from a count as of 10-11am. If true that would, of course, be a very strong early number.

That would put them higher than average Jewish areas and on course to 16 seats. Highly doubt it

No, it would be more like 18 or 19 mandates. But I agree that it likely is not quite so high. In any case 16 mandates is totally realistic right now.

It’s proportional, I’m putting it on 16 because Likud turnout is also on the rise it seems. B&W might be in for a tough night I feel

It's entirely too hard and too early to know anything. Until actual numbers start to get reported from Beersheva, Bat Yam, Tel Aviv, etc., it's hard to know anything. I only saw that Haifa was at like 14%, which would (maybe) be bad for Blue amd White. But who knows. Anecdotal reports are usually wrong.

[Hnv1]

According to Jack Khoury the Arab vote stands at 15%. No clue if that's as of 10 or as of 12, when he reported that figure. In any case if the 12pm Arab turnout is between 15 and 20 percent that would be a fairly solid indicator of a good night for the Joint List--assuming, of course, that overall turnout remains less than 23 or 24 percent as of 12.

The 15% figure is indeed from a count as of 10-11am. If true that would, of course, be a very strong early number.

That would put them higher than average Jewish areas and on course to 16 seats. Highly doubt it

No, it would be more like 18 or 19 mandates. But I agree that it likely is not quite so high. In any case 16 mandates is totally realistic right now.

It’s proportional, I’m putting it on 16 because Likud turnout is also on the rise it seems. B&W might be in for a tough night I feel

It's entirely too hard and too early to know anything. Until actual numbers start to get reported from Beersheva, Bat Yam, Tel Aviv, etc., it's hard to know anything. I only saw that Haifa was at like 14%, which would (maybe) be bad for Blue amd White. But who knows. Anecdotal reports are usually wrong.

Low turnout in Haifa is bad for YB, the Carmel is business as usual

[Walmart_shopper]

According to Jack Khoury the Arab vote stands at 15%. No clue if that's as of 10 or as of 12, when he reported that figure. In any case if the 12pm Arab turnout is between 15 and 20 percent that would be a fairly solid indicator of a good night for the Joint List--assuming, of course, that overall turnout remains less than 23 or 24 percent as of 12.

The 15% figure is indeed from a count as of 10-11am. If true that would, of course, be a very strong early number.

That would put them higher than average Jewish areas and on course to 16 seats. Highly doubt it

No, it would be more like 18 or 19 mandates. But I agree that it likely is not quite so high. In any case 16 mandates is totally realistic right now.

It’s proportional, I’m putting it on 16 because Likud turnout is also on the rise it seems. B&W might be in for a tough night I feel

It's entirely too hard and too early to know anything. Until actual numbers start to get reported from Beersheva, Bat Yam, Tel Aviv, etc., it's hard to know anything. I only saw that Haifa was at like 14%, which would (maybe) be bad for Blue amd White. But who knows. Anecdotal reports are usually wrong.

Low turnout in Haifa is bad for YB, the Carmel is business as usual

The Mount of Plenty saves the day.

[Walmart_shopper]

It's awfully hard to see what exactly is happening on the ground, but it appears that the turnout bump is being fueled mainly by a bump in Arab turnout. But that turnout is somewhat uneven. The Triangle, as you'd expect after Bibi planned to transfer them out of Israel, is high. Turnout in Umn Al Fahm was like 30-something percent TOTAL in September. The turnout is up there. Other Arab communities are high. But the turnout in urban centers, and Nazareth, is low, which is often the case--Arab turnout in Jaffa snd Haifa are typically anaemic. The other caveat is that Jewish turnout is pretty decent, given voter fatigue. There hasn't been a noticeable drop at all. What is not clear is where that turnout is coming from. Hopefully we will start to get more locally specific numbers soon.

[jaymichaud]

I see tons of people voting for KL on my instagram stories but I think that may be because of who I’m following (young guys from Tel Aviv/Haifa/Nesher etc)

[America Needs R'hllor]

It's awfully hard to see what exactly is happening on the ground, but it appears that the turnout bump is being fueled mainly by a bump in Arab turnout. But that turnout is somewhat uneven. The Triangle, as you'd expect after Bibi planned to transfer them out of Israel, is high. Turnout in Umn Al Fahm was like 30-something percent TOTAL in September. The turnout is up there. Other Arab communities are high. But the turnout in urban centers, and Nazareth, is low, which is often the case--Arab turnout in Jaffa snd Haifa are typically anaemic. The other caveat is that Jewish turnout is pretty decent, given voter fatigue. There hasn't been a noticeable drop at all. What is not clear is where that turnout is coming from. Hopefully we will start to get more locally specific numbers soon.

#Anecdotal report- my friend from Tel Aviv said turnout at her polling station was higher than September (she was annoyed by the line). Which means absolutely nothing.

[danny]

38.1% turnout by 14:00, up from 36.5% in September and 35.8% in April.

[Hnv1]

I think turnout surge will curve down towards the last ours. Final turnout at around 71%

[Walmart_shopper]

It's awfully hard to see what exactly is happening on the ground, but it appears that the turnout bump is being fueled mainly by a bump in Arab turnout. But that turnout is somewhat uneven. The Triangle, as you'd expect after Bibi planned to transfer them out of Israel, is high. Turnout in Umn Al Fahm was like 30-something percent TOTAL in September. The turnout is up there. Other Arab communities are high. But the turnout in urban centers, and Nazareth, is low, which is often the case--Arab turnout in Jaffa snd Haifa are typically anaemic. The other caveat is that Jewish turnout is pretty decent, given voter fatigue. There hasn't been a noticeable drop at all. What is not clear is where that turnout is coming from. Hopefully we will start to get more locally specific numbers soon.

#Anecdotal report- my friend from Tel Aviv said turnout at her polling station was higher than September (she was annoyed by the line). Which means absolutely nothing.

A long line to vote in left wing Tel Aviv is one of the least annoying things in the world.

[Walmart_shopper]

I think turnout surge will curve down towards the last ours. Final turnout at around 71%

In September people probably voted early and made it a beach day. Today the weather isn't quite so good. So who knows. I think 71% is a good guess, though.

[Walmart_shopper]

One report says that Umm al Fahm, a large Arab town in the Triangle region of the lower Galilee, has a turnout of 33% as of 1400.  That is roughly the TOTAL turnout from September. Localities don't publish their own turnout data, and numbers usually come from the parties running. So season to taste.

But feel free to flip back several pages in this thread to our discussion of whether Triangle Arabs really care if they are forced to reside in Palestine. I suppose today could be something of an answer.

[cp]

What sort of communities/turnout ought one look out for to detect strength for Likud/Bibi?

[America Needs R'hllor]

One report says that Umm al Fahm, a large Arab town in the Triangle region of the lower Galilee, has a turnout of 33% as of 1400.  That is roughly the TOTAL turnout from September. Localities don't publish their own turnout data, and numbers usually come from the parties running. So season to taste.

But feel free to flip back several pages in this thread to our discussion of whether Triangle Arabs really care if they are forced to reside in Palestine. I suppose today could be something of an answer.

Hopefully the turnout spike is fueled by Arabs and not Likud areas. That's our hope.

[Walmart_shopper]

What sort of communities/turnout ought one look out for to detect strength for Likud/Bibi?

Ashdod, Ashkelon, Netanya(hu), Bat Yam, Afula, maybe Jerusalem, Beersheva, Sderot, Eilat, Tiberias.

Blue and White is strongest in Tel Aviv, and its northern and eastern suburbs (ramat hasharon), and various kibbutzim. Haifa is mostly KL territory, but with a lot of Russians and Arabs.

[Oryxslayer]

What sort of communities/turnout ought one look out for to detect strength for Likud/Bibi?

Look to medium sized cities like Ashdod, Eilat, and Netanyah for likud energy. Look to Tell Aviv and her non-Bnei Brak near cities for B&W energy. I would treat any place with a high Haredi% like Jerusalem or high Arab% like the triangle as their own separate thing.

Also, I am finally up.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, here's some general predictions:

- Likud and B&W will both beat their polling like usual
- The Joint List will once again get a record number of MKs
- YB will either get more mandates than suggested by polls or be the closest to the threshold.

[Walmart_shopper]

More Arab sector turnout figures (provided by a right wing journalist who may just be making stuff up)...

Nazareth: 33%
Sakhnin: 40%
Arab parts of Haifa: 35%

Those are monster figures, if you're wondering. I can't determine their accuracy, but if they are remotely true tonight will be incredible.

On the other hand Joint List officials were concerned about low Arab turnout in Nazareth, so either they came to vote later (as Arabs do) or the numbers are bogus.

[Walmart_shopper]

Other Arab locales...

Kfar Kassem 23%
Kfar Khanna 20%

So not everywhere is showing outstanding turnout. But the major Arab population centers definitely are. I would love to see Jaffa, given how unbelievably low turnout usually is there.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Fellow Israelis correct me, but is it just me seeing much less panic from everyone- Likud, KL, LGM, Yamina, Haredim etc?

[Hnv1]

Other Arab locales...

Kfar Kassem 23%
Kfar Khanna 20%

So not everywhere is showing outstanding turnout. But the major Arab population centers definitely are. I would love to see Jaffa, given how unbelievably low turnout usually is there.

Kfar Qassam is idiosyncratic as Freg told his family not to go out and vote. They usually have high turnout.

[Hnv1]

Fellow Israelis correct me, but is it just me seeing much less panic from everyone- Likud, KL, LGM, Yamina, Haredim etc?

Could be either because they know no one is going to buy it or everyone already knows there’s a deadlock in bound

[Hnv1]

2.7% increase. I’ll refine my prediction Likud 35 B&W 32 JL 16