Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[jaymichaud]

Why do I have a feeling this is going to be a big punch to the right bloc?

Polls are showing The Jewish Home aren't going to make the threshold at all and we all know New Right sure as sh*t aren't going to win 6 seats as predicted. Likud keeping their 31 sounds far fetched too. Idk I see B&W coming off very well from this.

[jaymichaud]

Won't New Right be running with Likud?

No.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/271353

[jaymichaud]

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/netanyahu-calls-for-direct-election-if-talks-over-unity-gov-t-with-gantz-fai-1.8230152

Obviously not happening, but interesting move.

[jaymichaud]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/lapid-gives-up-rotation-deal-with-gantz-in-bid-to-boost-blue-and-white/

Wise move. I find him cringeworthy as hell, no idea why.

Edit: Also I’ve always been convinced he’s a closet bisexual. What’s with him always hugging and kissing his male colleagues?

[jaymichaud]

Channel 13 poll:
Blue and White -37
Likud - 33
Joint List – 13
Yisrael Beytenu – 8
United Torah Judaism – 7
Shas – 6
New Right – 6
Labor – 5
Democratic Camp – 5

Centre-Left-Arab: 60
Right: 52

I know New Right winning 6 seats is a ridiculous prediction, but wtf happened to The Jewish Home?

I'm definitely seeing a Labor-DU merge on the cards too. I don't think they're at risk of missing the threshold by any means, but they're struggling a lot more than they should be.

[jaymichaud]

What will happen to the Joint List? Will it stay the same or some of the radicals will split off?

According to the polls their 13 seats is pretty solid, I can't see anyone splitting off.

[jaymichaud]

Meretz is talking about merging with the Arabs again.

Lol yikes

This will never work in their favor. Their voter base will flock to Labor and they’ll probably fail to make the threshold at the following election.

[jaymichaud]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liberman-backs-pardon-for-netanyahu-in-exchange-for-exit-from-politics/

Lmao

[jaymichaud]

I'd assume that Meretz may be out of money? Three elections can't be good for what was presumably a limited budget already...

I mean Ehud Barak isn’t exactly in the poor house

[jaymichaud]

Meretz is talking about merging with the Arabs again.

Lol yikes

This will never work in their favor. Their voter base will flock to Labor and they’ll probably fail to make the threshold at the following election.

I think you're underestimating the radicalism of Meretz voters.

So it would go from 13 seats refusing to be part of a coalition to... 18 seats refusing to be part of a coalition? Really don't see what this would achieve tbh.

[jaymichaud]

Can I also just say how mindbogglingly weird it is that in Israel (of all places) the left is ascendent while in so many other countries, even more conventionally leftist ones, the right has recently come near or actually into power. Obviously the same global political trends happening in the UK, Australia, Italy, Uruguay and Poland and on and on are at work here, too, but the fact that Israel still has a meaningfully competitive center-left in a global milieu like this is perhaps a small miracle. I think that is less about the left or the right in Israel than about the catastrophic influence Netanyahu is having on the right wing, but I suppose the fact that one of the world's strongest right wings is letting itself implode to protect one morally questionable man from prosecution for serious felonies is actually not believable. Of all the places in the world, Israel is one where the left shouldn't be so resurgent. As much as I would love to see this phenomenon copy-pasted in the US, Hungary, and Brazil, the truth is that bad (and probably much worse than Netanyahu) leadership is not necessary crippling the autocratic right in those places.

I don’t know what left is ascending. B&W is centrist at best with edges on both sides, but it’s a left party and the 4 chiefs especially are pretty right wing

In what way is Gantz right wing?

[jaymichaud]

He's an ex-IDF Chief of Staff for one thing.

I mean then you could say Amir Peretz and Ehud Barak are right-wing because they sat as defence ministers. You could say Tzipi is a right-winger because of her heavy hand in Operation Cast Lead. It’s really nothing to go by.

[jaymichaud]

This Likud primary is shaping up to be closer than I thought it would be. I was predicting a slaughter (like 75% Bibi and 25% Sa’ar) but now not so much.

[jaymichaud]

Yisrael HaYom found a new pollster (at last), and here is what they released this morning:

Blue and White 37
Likud 31
Joint List 14
Shas 8
Yisrael Beiteinu 8
UTJ 7
Labor - Gesher 6
New Right 5
 Democratic Camp 4

Left 61
Right 51

Other polling this week showed the left with 58 to 60 (and a healthy lead over the right), and Blue and White with at least a 3 mandate advantage over the Likud. One Maariv poll showed the left dropling to 56 mandates with the Likud down only 2 and both New Right and Jewish Home clearing the threshold. This last poll is definitely the ceiling for the right wing, and the bulk of polling puts the left on the cusp of an outright majority.

Very interesting, because I had a look at this poll and it puts the Jewish Home at 2% and Otzma at 1%, meaning that they'd still fail to win 4 seats if they ever united.

The Jewish Home haven't polled above the threshold since 5th December, and before that it was one poll on 25th November. If this is accurate it'd be the first time the National Religious have had no political representation in Israel's history, right?

[jaymichaud]

If this is accurate it'd be the first time the National Religious have had no political representation in Israel's history, right?

Isn't New Right also a national religious party?

Bennet's project, symbolized in his embrace of Ayelet Shaked, was a modernized national religious party conversant with non-religious segments on the right. He largely failed in that as Jewish Home head and New Right is his own attempt at forging a third way between the messianic right and the secular Jabotinskyite right.

I was under the impression he was trying to create an Israeli Republican Party, where the white talibangelicals have a lot of influence but aren’t the main focal point of the party.

I wonder if Caroline Glick will run with them again?

[jaymichaud]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liberman-says-he-would-be-happy-to-run-with-shaked-in-fresh-elections/

Never thought about Ayelet joining YB, I could have seen it working like a year ago but definitely not now.

[jaymichaud]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liberman-says-he-would-be-happy-to-run-with-shaked-in-fresh-elections/

Never thought about Ayelet joining YB, I could have seen it working like a year ago but definitely not now.

That article is from after the first election, not from now.

Sh*t wrong article

https://www.timesofisrael.com/yisrael-beytenu-dangles-offer-to-join-right-wing-bloc-in-bid-to-court-shaked/

[jaymichaud]

Likud internal tribunal rules that there must be a primaries for the list as well. Mayhem

What are we predicting?

[jaymichaud]

Otzma and JH have agreed to run together, so we are getting a replay of the April election on the right (except this time Zehut isn't running).

Otzma get spots 3,6,9 which is what they demanded last time but were refused by JH.
National Union technically haven't agreed to join yet, but I don't see any other options for them.

They’ll either fail or get 4 seats.

[jaymichaud]

Otzma and JH have agreed to run together, so we are getting a replay of the April election on the right (except this time Zehut isn't running).

Otzma get spots 3,6,9 which is what they demanded last time but were refused by JH.
National Union technically haven't agreed to join yet, but I don't see any other options for them.

Looks to me like Peretz kinda played Smotrich this time by ensuring good spots for his party, right?

Anyway, interesting that we're seeing a replay. It'll be so funny if the New Right doesn't pass the threshold again.

It would be funnier if they both miss the threshold.

If religious zionist voters have any values left they'll not vote for a nazi to the Knesset and that could happen, but I strongly doubt it.

Also, I saw a poll today showing the Democratic Camp below the threshold. The left really needs to get its sh**t together.

Seems to be an outlier since they’ve been consistently polling at 5 seats. Likud win 34 seats in that poll which obviously ain’t gonna happen.

Then again you’re overestimating the influence of the National Religious/“settler” right. In September the Kahanists missed the mark by a long shot, NR and BY had to join forces in order to survive and they still underperformed. This will definitely backfire

[jaymichaud]

Otzma and JH have agreed to run together, so we are getting a replay of the April election on the right (except this time Zehut isn't running).

Otzma get spots 3,6,9 which is what they demanded last time but were refused by JH.
National Union technically haven't agreed to join yet, but I don't see any other options for them.

Does this not mean they will be above the threshold for sure? If so why should there be any belief that the deadlock will end after the March 2020 election ?

No, definitely not. Both Jewish Home and New Right will almost inevitably be on the edge of the threshold and the best case scenario for the right is each getting in and netting maybe 8 or 9 mandates. Even that, though, would probably not give the right wing anything close to 61 mandates.

It seems to me that this election comes down to either a left wing majority or more deadlock that is either resolved by Liberman choosing a side (probably the right wing) in a narrow government or Netanyahu stepping down. That is actually the exact inverse of the last election, where the left didn't even dream of a majority but just wanted to keep the right from getting 61 seats. This time around I think the right is just hoping to keep Gantz from getting a majority and, at most, getting more seats than the left block.

In the VERY best case scenario, I see the Left/Center-Left winning their 61. It’s been predicted pretty consistently that Joint List will keep their 13 seats. Labor and DU will probably maintain their 11 seats between them too. B&W would need 37 then.

[jaymichaud]

This might be a bad place to ask this, but why exactly does Israel have at-large parliamentary elections? It just seems a little odd having a Westminster-ish system but without constituencies. Is there some historical rationale for it?

As someone said earlier, size. If you divided 9,000,000 people by 120 constituents then that's 1 representative per 75,000. Put this in comparison with America where some congressional districts have up to 1 million people.

[jaymichaud]

This might be a bad place to ask this, but why exactly does Israel have at-large parliamentary elections? It just seems a little odd having a Westminster-ish system but without constituencies. Is there some historical rationale for it?

As someone said earlier, size. If you divided 9,000,000 people by 120 constituents then that's 1 representative per 75,000. Put this in comparison with America where some congressional districts have up to 1 million people.

I mean, that would be a similar ratio to the UK in most of the country, so there's nothing wrong number wise. FTPPs benefits are better utilized with smaller an more geographically consistent locales. I would say there's more a problem implementing FPTP in Israel because of how every three Jews has  five political opinions as the saying goes. If there is to be reform in the future to prevent future deadlocks, then a first place bonus like Greece or Italy previously would ease coalition negotiations, encourage there to actually be a big two rather than a big one and a disjointed opposition, and it would deminish the power that fringe groups like the Haredim hold over govt.

Yeah, it'd decimate smaller parties in general. Especially Labor, Meretz and The Jewish Home who rely on kibbutzim/moshavim and small settlements respectively.

[jaymichaud]

Some controversy over the Bayit Yehudi + Otzma mess. BYs central committee is gonna put it to a vote.

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1210305949921095680

Sa'ar did better than expected if this is true.

They're definitely losing the election again, tho.