Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Walmart_shopper]

Why would YB trigger a new election and join a joint ticket when they could just pick a side? Surely the point at which the time they stop being able to campaign alone is the time they become clearly associated with one side or the other?

They have campaigned pretty visibly from the left. That's obviously the side they've chosen. The problem is that Russians are obscenely right wing (although deeply secularist). So they can't hug the left, especially the Arab left, too closely. It's a real high wire act.

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud just won't die, will they??

The Likud is a joke. It's Bibi that won't go away. He's an institution unto himself. Deposing the bedrock of the Israeli right and the country's longest-serving PM was never going to be eaay. Once he's gone the cleanup will take years, too, although it may be too late already.

[BP🌹]

non-tolerable Arabs

Yikes

[Kingpoleon]

non-tolerable Arabs

Yikes

I assume (and hope) he meant from Lieberman’s perspective.

Is there any chance the Haredim and Joint List join forces to block a new election forced by YB? I have to guess, if Nir Barkat is any indicator, that they must be able to make some common cause when YB and large elements of the Secularist element ostracizes them so openly.

[jaymichaud]

Why would YB trigger a new election and join a joint ticket when they could just pick a side? Surely the point at which the time they stop being able to campaign alone is the time they become clearly associated with one side or the other?

If he goes back to the right it would basically kill his career, considering he was predicted to fail to meet the threshold in tons of polls before the whole 'unity government' campaign.

[Oryxslayer]

non-tolerable Arabs

Yikes

I assume (and hope) he meant from Lieberman’s perspective.

Is there any chance the Haredim and Joint List join forces to block a new election forced by YB? I have to guess, if Nir Barkat is any indicator, that they must be able to make some common cause when YB and large elements of the Secularist element ostracizes them so openly.

Yep. Leib has said he could go into govt with the joint labour-meretz team, which includes some Arab parties. He has said nothing of the sort concerning the Arab Joint List and Odeh. In fact, last govt formation he tried to push back on any govts including these parochial forced, be they Arab or haredim.

[Oryxslayer]

Israel appears to be once again heading towards these five potential govts:

Gantz+ with 61 and up
Bibi+ with 61 and up
Grand coalition (lol at this point)
YB sides with Gantz
YB sides with Bibi

Honestly, I think Leib really wants to find a way to walk the tightrope and side with Gantz. Something like keeping the Joint List at arm's length, giving YB everything it desires in govt, and a written potential termination date for the govt  if there are disagreements. The reason why is that if/when Bibi leaves the scene, a lot of scenarios can begin to play out. Voters can start moving, new parties could rise, and political recalculations can occur. This could benefit any number of groups after it all settles down. However, such scenarios cannot occur if everyone is still in a stagnating campaign mode from 2019.

[Walmart_shopper]

Israel appears to be once again heading towards these five potential govts:

Gantz+ with 61 and up
Bibi+ with 61 and up
Grand coalition (lol at this point)
YB sides with Gantz
YB sides with Bibi

Honestly, I think Leib really wants to find a way to walk the tightrope and side with Gantz. Something like keeping the Joint List at arm's length, giving YB everything it desires in govt, and a a written potential termination date if the govt there are disagreements. The reason why is that if/when Bibi leaves the scene, a lot of scenarios can begin to play out. Voters can start moving, new parties could rise, and political recalculations can occur. This could benefit any number of groups after it all settled down. However, such scenarios cannot occur if everyone is still in a stagnating campaign mode from 2019.

That's exactly my take, too. I think Liberman just wants Bibi gone, but the question is whether he is willing to play along with his nemesis the Joint List to do it.

[EastAnglianLefty]

What does the Joint List list look like? Presumably if they are providing confidence and supply, Hadash members are going to be significantly more reliable votes than Balad members.

[BP🌹]

What does the Joint List list look like? Presumably if they are providing confidence and supply, Hadash members are going to be significantly more reliable votes than Balad members.

The top 15 consists of 5 Hadash, 3 Balad, 3 Ta'al, and 4 Ra'am.

[danny]

Yep. Leib has said he could go into govt with the joint labour-meretz team, which includes some Arab parties. He has said nothing of the sort concerning the Arab Joint List and Odeh. In fact, last govt formation he tried to push back on any govts including these parochial forced, be they Arab or haredim.

Labour-Meretz includes individual Arabs (as does Beitenu itself), but the only parties represented in the alliance are Labour, Meretz, and Gesher, all of which are mostly Jewish.

[Oryxslayer]

The AIPAC discussion at tonight's debate just reminded me that the conference is happening from March 1-3. That's a rather awkward timing. I mean, Pence, McConnell, and MacCarthy are speaking alongside the usual Jewish democrats and presidential candidates.

Imagine if all the Republicans go to bed with Bibi as PM and giving speeches in favor of his policies, and then Gantz+ ends up with 61? That would leave everyone stranding...

[America Needs R'hllor]

What does the Joint List list look like? Presumably if they are providing confidence and supply, Hadash members are going to be significantly more reliable votes than Balad members.

They don't need to provide confidence and supply, btw. They just need to vote for the government to give it a majority in the first vote, and then they just need to not explicitly vote with the right to remove the government.

[Hnv1]

I feel like there won't be a 4th round. either B&W-Gantz-LGM minority government with half the JL voting for and Lieberman fuming but staying in. or Liebermen joining the right again.

as long as the right wing bloc don't get 61 on their own we're safe.

I'll put my official prediction on Sunday, but for now:
B&W 35
Likud 34
JL 12
LGM 9
Shas 8
UTJ 8
YB 7
Right 7

centre-left-arab: 56
B&W-YB-LGM: 51
Harzburg front: 57

[jaymichaud]

The AIPAC discussion at tonight's debate just reminded me that the conference is happening from March 1-3. That's a rather awkward timing. I mean, Pence, McConnell, and MacCarthy are speaking alongside the usual Jewish democrats and presidential candidates.

Imagine if all the Republicans go to bed with Bibi as PM and giving speeches in favor of his policies, and then Gantz+ ends up with 61? That would leave everyone stranding...

I mean the Republican Party and Likud are both members of the IDU so it’s natural that they’d prefer them leading the country.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Lieberman today: I won't sit in a government supported by the abstentions of the Joint List. Also Lieberman today: we'll create a government without Netanyahu, no more unity.

[Oryxslayer]

Lieberman today: I won't sit in a government supported by the abstentions of the Joint List. Also Lieberman today: we'll create a government without Netanyahu, no more unity.

AKA the tightrope.

 The only way this circle could be squared is if the yamina parties somehow decided to join lab-mrtz, B&W, and YB, since in this scenario likud, the haredim, and the Joint List would be off limits. However, such a govt presently lacks the seats in polling, and that is before we start to consider how lab-mrtz would work with yamina.

Therefore, YB has to be two-faced right now to win seats as part of their plan to walk the tightrope.

[Hnv1]

Lieberman today: I won't sit in a government supported by the abstentions of the Joint List. Also Lieberman today: we'll create a government without Netanyahu, no more unity.

I know Shas are on the edge of the seat because as long as there's no government the Yeshiva budget is being autmoatically reduce. but I don't see how these two propositions add up? unless some Ashkenazi forms a government?

* of course this sort of government is possible if B&W+LMG+Yb>Right Bloc which is unlikely.

[jaymichaud]

Lieberman today: I won't sit in a government supported by the abstentions of the Joint List. Also Lieberman today: we'll create a government without Netanyahu, no more unity.

I know Shas are on the edge of the seat because as long as there's no government the Yeshiva budget is being autmoatically reduce. but I don't see how these two propositions add up? unless some Ashkenazi forms a government?

* of course this sort of government is possible if B&W+LMG+Yb>Right Bloc which is unlikely.

Meretz can’t sit with Shas as they are unable to compromise on religion and state issues. It’s basically their priority as a party.

[Walmart_shopper]

Lieberman today: I won't sit in a government supported by the abstentions of the Joint List. Also Lieberman today: we'll create a government without Netanyahu, no more unity.

I know Shas are on the edge of the seat because as long as there's no government the Yeshiva budget is being autmoatically reduce. but I don't see how these two propositions add up? unless some Ashkenazi forms a government?

* of course this sort of government is possible if B&W+LMG+Yb>Right Bloc which is unlikely.

I think he thinks he can get Yamina to join. But that is awfully fatuous because a majority isn't guaranteed even with Yamina and, more importantly, it is absurd to think government with a very thin majority can survive or even get off the ground when it includes Meretz and Smotrich.

Liberman is full of so much hot air, and only sometimes is it true that מילה זו מילה.  He is promising that if push comes to shove he'll just pick a side to avoid a fourtg election. But that is literally what he promised a few months ago, before not picking a side and sending us all to new elections.

Maybe KL+Meretz/Labor can create a minority of 45 propped up by Joint List support and Liberman's abstention, but Gantz keeps assuring everyone that he is not interested in the Joint List joining his government.

I do think the polls may be seriously missing a right wing turnout drop, which could change everything. But as it stands now it looks even less likely that a government can be formed than after September's election.

[Walmart_shopper]

Lieberman today: I won't sit in a government supported by the abstentions of the Joint List. Also Lieberman today: we'll create a government without Netanyahu, no more unity.

I know Shas are on the edge of the seat because as long as there's no government the Yeshiva budget is being autmoatically reduce. but I don't see how these two propositions add up? unless some Ashkenazi forms a government?

* of course this sort of government is possible if B&W+LMG+Yb>Right Bloc which is unlikely.

Meretz can’t sit with Shas as they are unable to compromise on religion and state issues. It’s basically their priority as a party.

Meretz and the Haredim used to sit together all the time. But that was when Shas was a left wing party focused on Mizrahi economic integration. Now it's just Otzmah or UTJ with lots of ma'amoul at campaign events. The Haredim have changed so much.

[Hnv1]

Lieberman today: I won't sit in a government supported by the abstentions of the Joint List. Also Lieberman today: we'll create a government without Netanyahu, no more unity.

I know Shas are on the edge of the seat because as long as there's no government the Yeshiva budget is being autmoatically reduce. but I don't see how these two propositions add up? unless some Ashkenazi forms a government?

* of course this sort of government is possible if B&W+LMG+Yb>Right Bloc which is unlikely.

Meretz can’t sit with Shas as they are unable to compromise on religion and state issues. It’s basically their priority as a party.

LOL. You obviously hadn’t met a genuine Meretz activists for years. They’ll seat with Shas no problem whatsoever

[jaymichaud]

Lieberman today: I won't sit in a government supported by the abstentions of the Joint List. Also Lieberman today: we'll create a government without Netanyahu, no more unity.

I know Shas are on the edge of the seat because as long as there's no government the Yeshiva budget is being autmoatically reduce. but I don't see how these two propositions add up? unless some Ashkenazi forms a government?

* of course this sort of government is possible if B&W+LMG+Yb>Right Bloc which is unlikely.

Meretz can’t sit with Shas as they are unable to compromise on religion and state issues. It’s basically their priority as a party.

LOL. You obviously hadn’t met a genuine Meretz activists for years. They’ll seat with Shas no problem whatsoever

Lol Shulamit Aloni’s party? Seriously?

[Hnv1]

Lieberman today: I won't sit in a government supported by the abstentions of the Joint List. Also Lieberman today: we'll create a government without Netanyahu, no more unity.

I know Shas are on the edge of the seat because as long as there's no government the Yeshiva budget is being autmoatically reduce. but I don't see how these two propositions add up? unless some Ashkenazi forms a government?

* of course this sort of government is possible if B&W+LMG+Yb>Right Bloc which is unlikely.

Meretz can’t sit with Shas as they are unable to compromise on religion and state issues. It’s basically their priority as a party.

LOL. You obviously hadn’t met a genuine Meretz activists for years. They’ll seat with Shas no problem whatsoever

Lol Shulamit Aloni’s party? Seriously?

Shula was booted out by Sarid to allow the coalition with Shas. Then yes definitely that party

[Hnv1]

After voting Balad, then JL, I think I'm going to vote B&W this time (of strict utilitarian grounds). I may be the only Balad-B&W voter out there.