Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Hnv1]

The direct polls of today shows the right bloc on 60, as it seems the Likud campaign on turnout is changing the picture.

I did warn you lot, I hear quite a lot of rumble from the Likud strongholds, Likud are absolutely focused on turnout, they hardly care for winning the centre ground anymore. expect a possible upset

[Walmart_shopper]

The direct polls of today shows the right bloc on 60, as it seems the Likud campaign on turnout is changing the picture.

I did warn you lot, I hear quite a lot of rumble from the Likud strongholds, Likud are absolutely focused on turnout, they hardly care for winning the centre ground anymore. expect a possible upset

The problem this election is that, as predicted, the polling has been sparse and taken up by a significant chunk of simply bad polls, like Direct polls. It's obviously an outlier, but there aren't a bunch of polls to contradict it.

In any case, turnout doesn't help polling. It helps on election day. We won't know who is focused on turnout until Monday night.

[Walmart_shopper]

My prediction (which I may change based on TV polls tonight):

Blue and White 36
Likud 35
Joint List 14
Labor-Meretz 8
Shas 8
UTJ 7
Liberman 6
Yamina 6

Left/Arab 58
Religious/right 56
Liberman 6

I think liberal KL voters will, like hnv, come home to Gantz after a week of polls showing Likud leading. These voters will mostly come from Liberman and Laboe. That should boost them enough to top Likud. I also have always suspected that right wing turnout is, as it was in the previous two elections, being inflated on the right. There is much more enthusiasm than there are pro-Bibi voters, which produces a high polling response rate but less stellar vote totals. Until last week I thought the left would get around 60, but unless polls are way off--a totally plausible thing--sixty seems a heavy lift.

Also this is all predicated on an Arab turnout of 60% and an overall turnout of 65%. If Arab turnout ends up closer to 55% (the midpoint between April and September figures) then the Joint List will end up with only 12 seats and the blocs will be about even).

[Hnv1]

The direct polls of today shows the right bloc on 60, as it seems the Likud campaign on turnout is changing the picture.

I did warn you lot, I hear quite a lot of rumble from the Likud strongholds, Likud are absolutely focused on turnout, they hardly care for winning the centre ground anymore. expect a possible upset

The problem this election is that, as predicted, the polling has been sparse and taken up by a significant chunk of simply bad polls, like Direct polls. It's obviously an outlier, but there aren't a bunch of polls to contradict it.

In any case, turnout doesn't help polling. It helps on election day. We won't know who is focused on turnout until Monday night.

polling changed, since round 1 last year polls now also ask you the liklihood that you would actually vote, and they changed the models accordingly.

[Walmart_shopper]

Here was my September prediction, by the way (actual results are in parantheses):


Likud 33 (32)
Blue and White 31 (33)
Joint List 13 (13)
Yisrael Beiteinu 8 (8
Yamina 8 (7)
Shas 8 (9)
UTJ 8 (7)
Democratic Camp 6 (5)
Labor 5 (6)

Religious-right 57 (55)
Left/Arab: 55 (57)
Liberman: 8 (8

It wouldn't shock me at all if my September prediction waa the actual result this time.

[Walmart_shopper]

The direct polls of today shows the right bloc on 60, as it seems the Likud campaign on turnout is changing the picture.

I did warn you lot, I hear quite a lot of rumble from the Likud strongholds, Likud are absolutely focused on turnout, they hardly care for winning the centre ground anymore. expect a possible upset

The problem this election is that, as predicted, the polling has been sparse and taken up by a significant chunk of simply bad polls, like Direct polls. It's obviously an outlier, but there aren't a bunch of polls to contradict it.

In any case, turnout doesn't help polling. It helps on election day. We won't know who is focused on turnout until Monday night.

polling changed, since round 1 last year polls now also ask you the liklihood that you would actually vote, and they changed the models accordingly.

I mean, walk into a nail salon in Ashdod and do a poll and you'd think Bibi was going to get 120 seats. The Likud base is very devout, but less broad than Netanyahu needs for a majority. Polls are sensitive to voter enthusiasm, and sometimes mistake that for actual vote totals. There are a lot of liberals in Tel Aviv who are so disappointed in Gantz that they barely even care to show up. But they are going to show up (and if I'm wrong then Bibi geta close to a majority). Outside of Kfar Saba there aren't passionate KL voters like there are Likud voters. But there are more of them. If they still show up as they did in September then Bibi won't get close to 61.

[Hnv1]

The direct polls of today shows the right bloc on 60, as it seems the Likud campaign on turnout is changing the picture.

I did warn you lot, I hear quite a lot of rumble from the Likud strongholds, Likud are absolutely focused on turnout, they hardly care for winning the centre ground anymore. expect a possible upset

The problem this election is that, as predicted, the polling has been sparse and taken up by a significant chunk of simply bad polls, like Direct polls. It's obviously an outlier, but there aren't a bunch of polls to contradict it.

In any case, turnout doesn't help polling. It helps on election day. We won't know who is focused on turnout until Monday night.

polling changed, since round 1 last year polls now also ask you the liklihood that you would actually vote, and they changed the models accordingly.

I mean, walk into a nail salon in Ashdod and do a poll and you'd think Bibi was going to get 120 seats. The Likud base is very devout, but less broad than Netanyahu needs for a majority. Polls are sensitive to voter enthusiasm, and sometimes mistake that for actual vote totals. There are a lot of liberals in Tel Aviv who are so disappointed in Gantz that they barely even care to show up. But they are going to show up (and if I'm wrong then Bibi geta close to a majority). Outside of Kfar Saba there aren't passionate KL voters like there are Likud voters. But there are more of them. If they still show up as they did in September then Bibi won't get close to 61.

My brother in law does insurance for a lot of small likud councils in the north. They're galvinized, everyone is getting an SMS once a day and a phone call every 3-4 days. they have a mssive array of transporation planned for election day. 

our media isn't familiar with this places, they go to a random spot and Ashdod and film, but that means nothing.

[Walmart_shopper]

Here is a snapshot of the last eight polls from the September election:

Likud  KL  Yamina  YB JL Shas UTJ Meretz  Labor Otzmah  R/L
33      31   7          9  12 7        7   4         6        4           58/53
31      33   9          7  11 7        8   5         5        4           59/54
33      32   9          9  12 8        7   6         4        0           57/53
36      32   9          9  10 7        8   5         4        0           60/51
33      32   9          8  12 8        7   6         5        0           57/55
33      32   7          9  11 7        8   5         4        4           59/52
32      32   8          8  10 7        8   6         5        4           59/53
32      32   9          9  12 6        7   5         4        4           58/53

Actual:

32     33    7          8  13  9       8    5        6        0           55/57


There is a systemic overpolling of national religious voters, likely because of high enthusiasm.  That's how the polls got Otzmah so wrong in September, and basically always overestimate Bennet/Shaked by at least 2-3 mandates.  There are a lot of voters that float between Yamina/Likud/no vote, and the more elections we have the less likely those voters are to actually show up (because the fractious infighting on the right and a general dislike of Netanyahu for various reasons).

It is also worth noting that in early September, two weeks out from the election, the right wing had been polling between 56 and 58 mandates.  There was a late shift of at least 1-2 mandates to the right just before election day, in the last week of polling.  As it happens, that was actually a phantom shift that never actually materialized on election day.  Literally the same thing might be happening right now, with Likud strengthening and the right growing their mandate totals by about 2 seats in polls.

[Walmart_shopper]

I'll also add that Blue and White is spending the last few days of the campaign diving to the left, with Gantz and Lapid both making searing attacks on Netanyahu and Rafi Peretz.  I think they would have prefered to push into the soft right through the weekend, as they've done all campaign, but the rise of the Likud in polls has forced them to eat back into the left to ensure that they end up the largest party on Monday night.  That probably won't make a difference in terms of bloc math, but it will likely allow KL to gain back the two seats they've lost and should be enough to at least end up tied with Likud on election day.

The risk, I suppose, is that they could ignite a sleepy right wing base with attacks like these (much as impeachment clearly gave a polling boost to Trump as it gallvanized Republican voters). I've said it virtually every post here in the last few days, but I really think that even the parties themselves don't quite know what to expect in terms of turnout.  Left wing voters are the most reliable, of course.  KL doesn't have to sweat turnout like the right wing.  But turnout is always low-ish in Tel Aviv and in a tight race an extra 20,000 votes in Ramat Gan, Givatayim, and Tel Aviv could obviously make an enormous difference.  And most of all nobody knows what will happen with the Arab vote.  The projections I've seen have it close to September's Arab turnout (59%), but hnv's theory that Arabs will stay home because of disillusionment with Gantz is certainly a plausible outcome.  It likely won't plummet below 50%, but a dip of even just 5% would have a significant impact on the overall results.  On the other hand, a dip in Jewish turnout (very plausible, or even likely) combined with a similar Arab turnout could produce 14 or more seats for the Joint List and push the left bloc close to a majority. 

If I were Gantz I would produce a bold, left-leaning legislative agenda for the first month that dovetails nicely with the priorities of Labor and Yisrael Beiteinu, and promise to implement.  Right wing voters shrug at or even support public transportation on Saturday, increased pensions, separation of religion and state, etc.  What scares them into action are, of course, Arabs.  Gantz can move left without hugging the Joint List--by arguing that he wants a liberal coalition with Liberman and Labor/Meretz and needs soft, secular Likud votes to do that.  In other words, "with the help of sane right voters I can pursue a bold agenda that will welcome but will not rely on Joint List support."

[jaymichaud]

After voting Balad, then JL, I think I'm going to vote B&W this time (of strict utilitarian grounds). I may be the only Balad-B&W voter out there.

Please tell me the Balad vote was a protest vote or something

[Hnv1]

After voting Balad, then JL, I think I'm going to vote B&W this time (of strict utilitarian grounds). I may be the only Balad-B&W voter out there.

Please tell me the Balad vote was a protest vote or something

Any vote for me would be a protest vote atm. there's no party I feel is representative for me

[Walmart_shopper]

I wonder if the Bagatz ruling will make a difference at all on Monday. I could see it propelling turnout among Haredi and Hardal voters (although they already turn out at high rates anyway). It could also significantly bolster Blue and White since protecting the Court's independence and judicial review is central to their campaign messaging. It certainly reinforces the optic that the Court is the one thing holding up liberalism in the country, and it's precisely that Court that the right most badly wants to emasculate if they get a majority. Or maybe everyone is so obsessed with Coronvirus that they won't really think much of it.

[Walmart_shopper]

Right on cue:

https://mobile.twitter.com/gantzbe/status/1233073970662039555

[jaymichaud]

Right on cue:

https://mobile.twitter.com/gantzbe/status/1233073970662039555

To be fair they’ve always been very supportive of gay rights so I wouldn’t particularly say it’s pandering. Timing is definitely calculated though.

What are Likud’s stance on LGBT issues? I can’t find anything other than “they have gay members”

[Walmart_shopper]

Right on cue:

https://mobile.twitter.com/gantzbe/status/1233073970662039555

To be fair they’ve always been supportive of gay rights so I wouldn’t particularly say it’s pandering. Timing is definitely calculated though.

What are Likud’s stance on LGBT issues? I can’t find anything

Can you find Likud's stand on anything? Sara Netanyahu has it tucked away somewhere in the dining room at 10 Balfour, I think.

[Oryxslayer]

Right on cue:

https://mobile.twitter.com/gantzbe/status/1233073970662039555

To be fair they’ve always been very supportive of gay rights so I wouldn’t particularly say it’s pandering. Timing is definitely calculated though.

What are Likud’s stance on LGBT issues? I can’t find anything other than “they have gay members”

Historically, when confronted by the Israeli LGBT lobby, likud have approved of full integration. The problem of course is that such an issue is never prominent enough for likud to go against either the rabbinate or their dissaproveing coalition partners. It's the kind of issue likud prefers to ignore, since most of their base approves of it but would only raise those opinions if their party went against said opinions.

[mileslunn]

How come Likud is recovering and regaining lead?  I thought with Bibi's corruption scandal that would hurt them or did something else happen to hurt Blue and White?

[Walmart_shopper]

Final polls have Likud and KL tied and the right wing bloc leading 57-56.

So whatever bleeding there was from Blue  and White or even the left bloc seems to have stopped and the race is, at this point, a total tie.

[Walmart_shopper]

How come Likud is recovering and regaining lead?  I thought with Bibi's corruption scandal that would hurt them or did something else happen to hurt Blue and White?

Gantz has run a fairly pathetic and uninspiring campaign and, like the United States, there aren't really any swing voters to meaningfully shift the bloc math. Bibi's corruption will hurt him by landing him in jail, but nothing has really changed since September to change the polling. There has been a complete hit job on Gantz's character this last week, which has allowed Likud to gain a seat or two. But they are still quite far from a majority.

[America Needs R'hllor]

To be fair they’ve always been very supportive of gay rights so I wouldn’t particularly say it’s pandering. Timing is definitely calculated though.

What are Likud’s stance on LGBT issues? I can’t find anything other than “they have gay members”

They like to pay lip service to LGBT+ people, and Netnayahu loves using us to promote Israel in the world, but in the end their policy is decided by their radical homophobic coalition partners.

How come Likud is recovering and regaining lead?  I thought with Bibi's corruption scandal that would hurt them or did something else happen to hurt Blue and White?

The only answer I have is another question: "how stupid are the people of Israel?"

Netanyahumentum is the narrative now, and it's really not what we needed a few days before election.

How come Likud is recovering and regaining lead?  I thought with Bibi's corruption scandal that would hurt them or did something else happen to hurt Blue and White?

Gantz has run a fairly pathetic and uninspiring campaign and, like the United States, there aren't really any swing voters to meaningfully shift the bloc math. Bibi's corruption will hurt him by landing him in jail, but nothing has really changed since September to change the polling. There has been a complete hit job on Gantz's character this last week, which has allowed Likud to gain a seat or two. But they are still quite far from a majority.

Yeah- just yesterday someone (apparently a prominent rabbi) leaked a recording of one of Gantz's cheif advisors calling him weak and saying "he can't attack Iran". Meanwhile, Joffrey and the right-wing media puppets have been smearing Gantz with allegations that he's some pervert, allegations that I'm certain they get right out of their asses (ironic considering the only cheat in the race is Netanyahu himself). This is not working terribly well- hard to smear a man such as Gantz- but to some extent, it does.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Yair Netanyahu, in his fake news campaign to smear Gantz and claim he had lovers, had crossed another red line. He chose a random woman who had a photograph with Gantz, and after another tweet alleging Gantz is a pervert, he tweeted a screenshot of her FB profile asking "anyone know who this is". In case one of their rabid army of supporters didn't get the hint, he then tweeted a selfie of her with Gantz. She came out with a scathing social media repudiation of Yair, saying that he caused a "mass sexual harassment" on social media and promising to sue him. What a vile little weasel. Tells a lot about what kind of man his father (who's probably allowing all of that) is.

[jaichind]

So if polls are correct, who is going to blink after the election or will it go to a 4th election ?

[Walmart_shopper]

To be fair they’ve always been very supportive of gay rights so I wouldn’t particularly say it’s pandering. Timing is definitely calculated though.

What are Likud’s stance on LGBT issues? I can’t find anything other than “they have gay members”

They like to pay lip service to LGBT+ people, and Netnayahu loves using us to promote Israel in the world, but in the end their policy is decided by their radical homophobic coalition partners.

How come Likud is recovering and regaining lead?  I thought with Bibi's corruption scandal that would hurt them or did something else happen to hurt Blue and White?

The only answer I have is another question: "how stupid are the people of Israel?"

Netanyahumentum is the narrative now, and it's really not what we needed a few days before election.

How come Likud is recovering and regaining lead?  I thought with Bibi's corruption scandal that would hurt them or did something else happen to hurt Blue and White?

Gantz has run a fairly pathetic and uninspiring campaign and, like the United States, there aren't really any swing voters to meaningfully shift the bloc math. Bibi's corruption will hurt him by landing him in jail, but nothing has really changed since September to change the polling. There has been a complete hit job on Gantz's character this last week, which has allowed Likud to gain a seat or two. But they are still quite far from a majority.

Yeah- just yesterday someone (apparently a prominent rabbi) leaked a recording of one of Gantz's cheif advisors calling him weak and saying "he can't attack Iran". Meanwhile, Joffrey and the right-wing media puppets have been smearing Gantz with allegations that he's some pervert, allegations that I'm certain they get right out of their asses (ironic considering the only cheat in the race is Netanyahu himself). This is not working terribly well- hard to smear a man such as Gantz- but to some extent, it does.

Israelis aren't stupid. They're just ideologically pants-on-head backwards. Bibi Netanyahu's reign over this last decade is all the proof you need that the Zionist experiment has failed. How many more elections does a corrupt, immoral, and atavistic right wing need before we admit that you can choose a Jewish state or you can choose a democratic one but you cannit choose both?

But the whole Bibimentum charade is just that. It's a charade concocted by leftist media that feeds on doom and a right wing media that feeds on leftist doom. The Likud has tried everything from co-opting the White House into releasing its idiotic "peace" plan to defaming TWO former military chiefs of staff with ad hominem attacks that are insanely vicious. They are downright Trumpian. And what has it got him? Two seats. Not a majority. Maybe not even a plurality. It got his party 2 seats and his sycophantic bloc 1-2 seats. Everyone talks about how magical Netanyahu is when it comes to electoral politics. But this year has proven, if nothing else, what a fatuous lie that is. He's horrible at politics and only survives because he has bludgeoned the opposition for years so that even keeping Bibi from 61 is a small miracle.

I don't believe that the religious right is anywhere near 61 seats right now. I suspect that for them just beating the left-Arab bloc would be a big night. Voter enthusiasm on the right is very low, and polling data that shows a phantom Netanyahu comeback and the right wing touching 60 seats serves the purpose of inspiring right wing voters to show up "to help get that last seat for a majority."  If they told the truth, that Bibi has virtually no reasonable shot at 61 and that a fourth election is likely, why would Noa leave the nail salon with all those customers and bother with voting? We heard literally the same thing in September, about how Bibi was so close to 61 and blah blah blah. Expect more of the same for the next few days.

But I ultimately think the Likud mudslinging will backfire. It turns Gantz into an anti-Bibi avatar more appealing to the left, and it also helps prevent pro-Likid anti-Bibi voters from voting for Netanyahu yet again. There is at least 3 mandates worth of soft Likud support that is repelled by Netanyahu's antics.

[Walmart_shopper]

Yair Netanyahu, in his fake news campaign to smear Gantz and claim he had lovers, had crossed another red line. He chose a random woman who had a photograph with Gantz, and after another tweet alleging Gantz is a pervert, he tweeted a screenshot of her FB profile asking "anyone know who this is". In case one of their rabid army of supporters didn't get the hint, he then tweeted a selfie of her with Gantz. She came out with a scathing social media repudiation of Yair, saying that he caused a "mass sexual harassment" on social media and promising to sue him. What a vile little weasel. Tells a lot about what kind of man his father (who's probably allowing all of that) is.

Likud's strategy right now is obviously firing up the right wing base. I don't know if they think they can be genuinely competitive with a bump in right wing turnout or if their internal data is showing a severe lag in right wing turnout that they're trying to fix, but if there is one thing we've learned this last year it's that Bibi's crazy lurches to the right at the last minute don't work like they did in 2015.

[Walmart_shopper]

The numbers I've seen for projected Arab turnout are eye-popping. One even has Arab turnout nearly even with Jewish turnout. I am still a little skeptical about that actually happening, but I don't think 15 seats for the Joint List is at all unrealistic and if everything goes well even 16 is conceivable.