Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Oryxslayer]

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result" - a certain Jew (and almost president of Israel)

^{(I'm not the first one to use this quote, right?)}

I don't think Bibi expects a different result, I think he just wants to delay the inevitable so that him being removed from power is the deviation from normalcy, not the other way around. Which is so self-centered he's even throwing Likuds long-term future aside for a few more days.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1204033915327074305

They can agree on something I guess? Sigh....

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1204465766453694464

Does Bibi want to lose? Bibi already has McLaughlin on board, so this would be a team of the worlds least savvy conservatives.

[Oryxslayer]

Channel 13 poll:
Blue and White -37
Likud - 33
Joint List – 13
Yisrael Beytenu – 8
United Torah Judaism – 7
Shas – 6
New Right – 6
Labor – 5
Democratic Camp – 5

Centre-Left-Arab: 60
Right: 52

UTJ and Shas are losing that many seats. Junk poll

Or they could be expecting higher turnout, which hurts the high-floor low-ceiling Haredim. But yes, not the best poll to be taken at face value.

[Oryxslayer]

This might be a bad place to ask this, but why exactly does Israel have at-large parliamentary elections? It just seems a little odd having a Westminster-ish system but without constituencies. Is there some historical rationale for it?

As someone said earlier, size. If you divided 9,000,000 people by 120 constituents then that's 1 representative per 75,000. Put this in comparison with America where some congressional districts have up to 1 million people.

I mean, that would be a similar ratio to the UK in most of the country, so there's nothing wrong number wise. FTPPs benefits are better utilized with smaller an more geographically consistent locales. I would say there's more a problem implementing FPTP in Israel because of how every three Jews has  five political opinions as the saying goes. If there is to be reform in the future to prevent future deadlocks, then a first place bonus like Greece or Italy previously would ease coalition negotiations, encourage there to actually be a big two rather than a big one and a disjointed opposition, and it would deminish the power that fringe groups like the Haredim hold over govt.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/YairNetanyahu/status/1210643795550908416

Israel’s Don Jr.

The SNP approves of this message.

[Oryxslayer]

There hasn't been a new poll in 11 days, is this weird?

Not during the holiday period. You get low response rates this time of year since everyone is with family, even if it is for non-religious reasons. It would be impossible to get a good Christian sample, and you Jewish total is probably going to require more work depending on how many really care about Hanukkah. Throw in employees using vacation time and you get a situation where pollsters/market researchers hate entering the feild in the back half of December.

[Oryxslayer]

Netanyahu is asking for immunity from indictment which the Knesset needs to vote on. Lieberman announces he’s against and will support forming the house committee even before the next election to vote against the request. The ball is now in the speaker’s lap and he needs to approve the vote.

Bibi is desperate, delaying the trial with a heavy electoral cost

Without Leib such a bill would not have the votes and be DOA, so what's the point of pushing it now?

[Oryxslayer]

Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

The union will land 6-8 seats and hopefully Gilon is out. Wretched parties

The joint run will not get six seats. Good grief. They will clearly get at least 8 and probably nine or ten.

Want to have a bet? Lunch next time I’m in Jerusalem

I’m positive this list gets no more than 7 seats. B&W will get 38, JL 14

Lol sorry what

DU and Labor-Gesher got 405k votes between them in September, do you expect 40% of their voterbase to die before March?

I’ll say 10. JL 13, B&W 37. I’ve seen no reason to assume the Joint List will gain more seats- the only thing that will push them to 14/15 is if the Jewish Home fail to meet the threshold and NR underperform.

When you are close to the threshold, a party picks up voters easier since they fear the party missing the threshold and getting 0 seats. It's a rational conclusion that since both parties no longer have to fear that demarcation line, some  'softer' voters will migrate to other left/arab parties. The combined list no longer has the ability to stoke fear and gain those 'fear' voters who might normally be considering similar parties.

[Oryxslayer]

I know from my time studying in college that in some less stable democracies, at least historically, the last spots on various lists were saved for party donors, bosses, or other figures who were to powerful to ignore. Putting them in such a position allowed the party to visibly show respect and continual favor to said actors, but not force these actors to actually get involved in the day to day politics of the legislature, which they do not desire. Essentially the Daley's of the world got titles to demonstrate their value to the party, but Daley wants to stay with his machine in Chicago so he gets a position which won't sent him into government. It's interesting how different states create different uses for these more-or-less ceremonial positions.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, both Bibi and Gantz are going to washington to discuss the 'peace plan,' a sign that expectations may be changing. Said  discussion is happening on the  same day of as the  vote for a knesset inquiry into Bibi though.

[Oryxslayer]

You know what I think? I think that this won't even matter. We are one month out from the actual polling day, and that's enough time for people to forget about what happened in Washington and change their vote to one that reflects the situation in a month. To this end, we have no idea what the situation will be in a month.

[Oryxslayer]

Moving away from this discussion for a moment, it seems as if Likud has had a respectable media cycle this last week. They are gaining in the polls, usually pulling from minors. Now, there are a variety of potential reasons for this: Peace Plan juicing the Right wing, a potential rally-around-the-flag after Bibi's sentence, or perhaps just small party infighting within the settler parties. No matter the reason, Likud has gained in this moment.

[Oryxslayer]

Moving away from this discussion for a moment, it seems as if Likud has had a respectable media cycle this last week. They are gaining in the polls, usually pulling from minors. Now, there are a variety of potential reasons for this: Peace Plan juicing the Right wing, a potential rally-around-the-flag after Bibi's sentence, or perhaps just small party infighting within the settler parties. No matter the reason, Likud has gained in this moment.

No, to the contrary, this was supposed to be the gamechanging week for the Likud. And polls are in almost total agreement that AT MOST they picked up a single seat. It was, as you say, a relatively good news week for Netanyahu, but the indictment pretty much negated whatever momentum he found and, in any case, the cake is mostly baked in terms of support. I have to imagine that the Likud strategists are in a panic of sorts realizing that the week in which they threw the kitchen sink barely moved the needke at all. There are only a couple mandates out there that will bobble around over the next month. The only real question is, of course, turnout.

I just think people are done with Netanyahu and the only question is how to piece together a government without him. Support for him on the right just isn't strong enough to net a majority.

Nah, I think Likud got what they wanted, I mean the actually led in one poll after being down for months. I think the problem is, like I said earlier, this is all happening a few weeks to early. Instant emotions will dissipate and we will be back to the earlier equilibrium. Or...a new news cycle will come around that adjusts views towards a different temporary alignment.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1226940217719959553

Oops.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1226940217719959553

Oops.

I don’t see a big deal, every party running no matter how small can get those figures. Part for divorced men running away from court documents there’s nothing in the data that really breaches privacy

It's not dangerous within Israel, its the danger that said data could end up in the hands of malicious actors. Russia has little desire to influence Israel to the degree it pulls strings in European politics, but certain middle eastern neighbors may like such data.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1227954544279248896

Doesn't change the fact that they still would need outside support from The Joint List to govern according to polls.

[Oryxslayer]

Likud are working on base turnout. My partner was a Likud members for years and she’s been getting more texts and calls then ever. They also have an app that take information from cellphone to target family and friends of those with the app

If Arab turnout will decrease by 5% and Likud/shas demographics by 2-3% we might see a very narrow right wing majority

Lol Likud's voterbase won't get any bigger... they pulled every single trick out of the bag a long time ago

I think it's more a fear of a shrinking base rather than a growing one. The fundamentals of the contest don't favor likud: Bibi trial, repeated elections, and political stalemate all provide incentives to stay home if you are a likud voter. Changing parties is difficult considering the tribal nature of Israeli political pillars, but sitting at home is easy if you dissaprove of Bibi but approve of likud. So they want everyone and their mother to keep turning out.

[Oryxslayer]

A couple polls showing Likud leading KL came out today. I literally can't imagine Netanyahu as my PM for more than a year or so.

Wait, someone other than Direct Polls (consistent outlier) shows Likud ahead?

[Oryxslayer]

Channel 13 out with a new poll in which Likud leads by a single mandate. Labor-Meretz is eating into Blue and White right now. So the blocs aren't really shifting, but left wing voters are leaving Gantz for smaller parties. I wonder how much panic Blue and White is feeling right now. They are dropping like a rock, but to their allies on the left. So it makes it even MORE likely that the only path to power is a leftist government with Arab and Liberman support. Hilariously, that's precisely what Gantz and friends have tried so hard to avoid.

The real question remains turnout, of course. One major pollster sees the Arab turnout very close to September's election, which was good but not explosive. The Jewish vote dropped in September. If the Jewish vote drops again the Joint List could get 15 seats if the Arab sector really makes a show of political power and shows up. Depending on where turnout among Jews drops most that could dramatically alter the math for Blue and White, even if they finish behind Likud in terms of mandates.

Not particularly 'leftist' but I can see a B&W/Labor-Gesher/Meretz/YB coalition with Hadash/Ta'al/Ra'am as confidence and supply.

Yes that is the eternal enigma - will YB be willing to work with Bibi+Haredim or the Arabs? If they are, then this stalemate instantly breaks and the general breakdown that was returned last time and looks to be returned again  works fine. However, so far Lieberman has been inflexible when push comes to shove. Repeated elections is diminishing everyone's coffers, so eventually YB has to choose debts, a coalition, or a joint ticket. Maybe that is this time around. If so, then such a government seems the most 'acceptable" to Leib: the non-tolerable Arabs are at arms length, the Haredim are out, and Lieberman probably gets an even-more oversized portfolio since it would be a govt of 45ish MKs.

[Oryxslayer]

When will there be a government if there's a 4th or a 5th election?

Like I said, eventually YB (supposed kingmaker) will have to decide between entering govt, racking up debts via repeated elections, or joining a joint ticket to limit loss. So eventually there will be a govt, this won't go on forever. It may not stop here though.

[Oryxslayer]

non-tolerable Arabs

Yikes

I assume (and hope) he meant from Lieberman’s perspective.

Is there any chance the Haredim and Joint List join forces to block a new election forced by YB? I have to guess, if Nir Barkat is any indicator, that they must be able to make some common cause when YB and large elements of the Secularist element ostracizes them so openly.

Yep. Leib has said he could go into govt with the joint labour-meretz team, which includes some Arab parties. He has said nothing of the sort concerning the Arab Joint List and Odeh. In fact, last govt formation he tried to push back on any govts including these parochial forced, be they Arab or haredim.

[Oryxslayer]

Israel appears to be once again heading towards these five potential govts:

Gantz+ with 61 and up
Bibi+ with 61 and up
Grand coalition (lol at this point)
YB sides with Gantz
YB sides with Bibi

Honestly, I think Leib really wants to find a way to walk the tightrope and side with Gantz. Something like keeping the Joint List at arm's length, giving YB everything it desires in govt, and a written potential termination date for the govt  if there are disagreements. The reason why is that if/when Bibi leaves the scene, a lot of scenarios can begin to play out. Voters can start moving, new parties could rise, and political recalculations can occur. This could benefit any number of groups after it all settles down. However, such scenarios cannot occur if everyone is still in a stagnating campaign mode from 2019.

[Oryxslayer]

The AIPAC discussion at tonight's debate just reminded me that the conference is happening from March 1-3. That's a rather awkward timing. I mean, Pence, McConnell, and MacCarthy are speaking alongside the usual Jewish democrats and presidential candidates.

Imagine if all the Republicans go to bed with Bibi as PM and giving speeches in favor of his policies, and then Gantz+ ends up with 61? That would leave everyone stranding...

[Oryxslayer]

Lieberman today: I won't sit in a government supported by the abstentions of the Joint List. Also Lieberman today: we'll create a government without Netanyahu, no more unity.

AKA the tightrope.

 The only way this circle could be squared is if the yamina parties somehow decided to join lab-mrtz, B&W, and YB, since in this scenario likud, the haredim, and the Joint List would be off limits. However, such a govt presently lacks the seats in polling, and that is before we start to consider how lab-mrtz would work with yamina.

Therefore, YB has to be two-faced right now to win seats as part of their plan to walk the tightrope.