Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[jaymichaud]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/liberman-vows-not-to-join-likud-led-coalition-of-right-wing-religious-parties/

Well he’s sticking to his guns.

[Oryxslayer]

Some commentators seem to think that Labour might be the defector Bibi will get  - but Labour said absolutely no last time. The party would be less inclined now that they are on their deathbed and only the activist voters are left. So a defector needs to be found in B&W if 60-60 is the end result.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

At the risk of sounding like a conspiracy nut, there is a tendency among mainstream media outlets to defer to the spin of more conservative voices generally, especially if they're the incumbent in a closely fought election. One potential reason for this (indeed, one reason such voices are in power in the first place) is the cohesion and calibration of said conservative voices' organizing institutions. Compared to opposition/non-reactionary voices, they are faster and more effective at aligning to a single, highyl self-serving, semi-plausible interpretation of events.

There's also a certain mentality in left/liberal journalism that almost enjoys being disappointed, in seeing the glass half full, which in practice can mean playing along with that kind of line quite willingly if in a different register.

[Walmart_shopper]

Anyway, Channel 11 is just repeating what we are all waiting on right now via interviews. If Bibi+ or Gantz+ gets an extra mandate, then the situation becomes what we had after round 2 where Lieberman decides the king. If it stays at 60-60, Leib either chooses to return to Bibi or someone gets bribed to the other side. 60-60 is the worst situation right now.

I actually don't understand why everyone is acting like Bibi and the right won. He needs 61 seats to truly win. Anything less is more chaos, deadlock, elections, etc. Obviously KL lost, but without a majority snd without Liberman Bibi still hasn't won. Right now he doesn't seem to have either, although that could change.

Oh, I agree. Even in September the headlines were “Deadlock continues” as opposed to “Gantz wins”.

At the risk of sounding like a conspiracy nut, there is a tendency among mainstream media outlets to defer to the spin of more conservative voices generally, especially if they're the incumbent in a closely fought election. One potential reason for this (indeed, one reason such voices are in power in the first place) is the cohesion and calibration of said conservative voices' organizing institutions. Compared to opposition/non-reactionary voices, they are faster and more effective at aligning to a single, highyl self-serving, semi-plausible interpretation of events.

Conspiratorial? Israeli media serves Bibi harder than Venus served a tennis ball. Even Haaretz is notoriously weird about Bibi, though it isn't cleqr if that's because Amos Schocken loves Bibi or if leftists just love to self-sabotage so they can hurt so good. But, yes, the media absolutely boes to Bibi, probably because they don't think he can he beaten and don't want to be subject to vindictive payback from the Likud mafia.

[Walmart_shopper]

Some commentators seem to think that Labour might be the defector Bibi will get  - but Labour said absolutely no last time. The party would be less inclined now that they are on their deathbed and only the activist voters are left. So a defector needs to be found in B&W if 60-60 is the end result.

The rumor has been that Gesher will cross over. I suspect the Likud saw this coming for a while because Bibi gave an interview yesterday in which he said that 60 seats would be enough because ue had someone willing to crossover. The chatter has been that it's Orly Levy.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is there anything to suggest the usual suspects have been tampering with the Exit Polls? Sh*t, everything about their campaign has been fraudulent.

Nope. But because of the prison vote and thr difficulty of adequately polling Arabs it's possible the Joint List can grab an extra seat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Whatever the counting leads to and whatever post-election craziness occurs, one thing is clear and not just from this election: the stability card is a very powerful one in these unsettled times, and the failure of parties of the Left and Centre to understand this is one of the principle reasons that election results are so often ones that the average Atlas poster does not wish to see.

[Walmart_shopper]

I really do wonder what would have happened if Gantz ran a campaign specifically promising a left wing-Arab government. He spent this entire campaign trying as hard as possible to distance himself from the Joint List and the Arab sector for fear of scaring right-leaning voters away. It appears that they were scared away anyway, and his awful campaign left many Tel Aviv leftists at home.  Would it have changed much? Maybe not. But it would at least help heal the divisions in this country even in losing. Now Gantz has exacerbated those divisions and doesn't have an election win to show for it.

[Walmart_shopper]

New samples come out at 1am, by the way. No clue about actual results.

[jaymichaud]

Israel needs to being back Kadima and run as a ‘center to center-left’ US Democrats style party.

[Babeuf]

Israel needs to being back Kadima and run as a ‘center to center-left’ US Democrats style party.

How was that not B&W?

[jaymichaud]

Is there anything to suggest the usual suspects have been tampering with the Exit Polls? Sh*t, everything about their campaign has been fraudulent.

What would that even accomplish? The vote counters/poll workers are beyond their preview and once the votes come in such a conspiracy would be revealed. It was the last two times they seriously tried to influence this part of the election with the video cameras in arab stations, and that failed.

Eh idk

I’ve had a few drinks this afternoon and I’m kinda pissed off so yeah lol

[BP🌹]

Another election?

[Silent Hunter]

Whatever the counting leads to and whatever post-election craziness occurs, one thing is clear and not just from this election: the stability card is a very powerful one in these unsettled times, and the failure of parties of the Left and Centre to understand this is one of the principle reasons that election results are so often ones that the average Atlas poster does not wish to see.

"I'm all right, [Jack/Johannes/Juan/Jakob]" is a big motivator in people's political behaviour. People have to be directly affected by bad governance for it to impact their voting behaviour.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I really do wonder what would have happened if Gantz ran a campaign specifically promising a left wing-Arab government. He spent this entire campaign trying as hard as possible to distance himself from the Joint List and the Arab sector for fear of scaring right-leaning voters away. It appears that they were scared away anyway, and his awful campaign left many Tel Aviv leftists at home.  Would it have changed much? Maybe not. But it would at least help heal the divisions in this country even in losing. Now Gantz has exacerbated those divisions and doesn't have an election win to show for it.

The strategic error is this attempt to consolidate opposition voters into one party. Up to a point it works: the smaller parties of the opposition are mostly crushed unless they have vote banks to rely on. B&W have been particularly effective at this. But it reduces the pool of opposition votes and so also seats: different parties, after all, can appeal to different segments of the electorate. Same error that the opposition to Berlusconi made in Italy until it no longer mattered.

[Walmart_shopper]

Another election?

That's probably the most hopeful outcome. Or Bibi slipping to 59 and Liberman and the Joint List passing a law with KL and the left to formally bar Netanyahu from being prime minister.

But at the end of the day at least half the country wants Bibi. Bibi might go away, but ehat do you do with that half of the country whose values are so completely opposed to decency, coexistence, and solidarity? Those people aren't going away, and truthfully they are only getting stronger.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Whatever the counting leads to and whatever post-election craziness occurs, one thing is clear and not just from this election: the stability card is a very powerful one in these unsettled times, and the failure of parties of the Left and Centre to understand this is one of the principle reasons that election results are so often ones that the average Atlas poster does not wish to see.

"I'm all right, [Jack/Johannes/Juan/Jakob]" is a big motivator in people's political behaviour. People have to be directly affected by bad governance for it to impact their voting behaviour.

Not just that, but if there's chaos in government and general gridlock and political crisis, appearing to almost enjoy that and to promise more of the same to the electorate is a bit of an error. And this happens a lot at present.

[Silent Hunter]

While the Palestinians are still firing rockets ineffectually, Bibi can run on that. "They're a threat, but I'm dealing with them." He can't eliminate the threat entirely - indeed, that's not possible without an expenditure in blood and treasure that few countries can afford, as well as a security policy democracies shy away from - but while the 'hornets' exist, he can say he's the bug spray.

[Walmart_shopper]

To illustrate the problem here is something I just pulled off of Times of Israel:

“The supreme court is known to be anti-Israel, anti-Jewish and anti-religious, I think it’s almost certain that they would disqualify Netanyahu” he says.

What would happen then?

“Then we’d have to overturn the country,” he responds coolly. “We’ll have to take to the streets and turn everything on its head. We voted for Netanyahu. We didn’t vote for the Supreme Court.”

Chaya Shimoni, a woman in her 70s from Bat Yam, agrees with this sentiment. “My mother taught me that a man is innocent until he is sentenced and sent to prison,” she says as she wraps herself in an Israeli flag. “If the Supreme Court can do whatever it wants, we might as well close everything, the Knesset, the government, everything. That’s not democracy anymore.”

“We’ve had enough of this leftist mafia,” she adds.

Like, what on earth are you even supposed to do with that? What do you do with settlers who actually believe that you purify the land and ripen it for the coming of the messiah by kicking Arabs out of their homes? What do you do with Haredim who believe that not just the Knesset but actually all of creation exists to foster their observance of archaic talmudic law?

You can't argue, reason, sympathize, or otherwise work with that. All you can do is hope that living together in this little country forces them and all of us to seek new ways of living together, to seek the human things that bind us.

[jaymichaud]

To illustrate the problem here is something I just pulled off of Times of Israel:

“The supreme court is known to be anti-Israel, anti-Jewish and anti-religious, I think it’s almost certain that they would disqualify Netanyahu” he says.

What would happen then?

“Then we’d have to overturn the country,” he responds coolly. “We’ll have to take to the streets and turn everything on its head. We voted for Netanyahu. We didn’t vote for the Supreme Court.”

Chaya Shimoni, a woman in her 70s from Bat Yam, agrees with this sentiment. “My mother taught me that a man is innocent until he is sentenced and sent to prison,” she says as she wraps herself in an Israeli flag. “If the Supreme Court can do whatever it wants, we might as well close everything, the Knesset, the government, everything. That’s not democracy anymore.”

“We’ve had enough of this leftist mafia,” she adds.

Like, what on earth are you even supposed to do with that? What do you do with settlers who actually believe that you purify the land and ripen it for the coming of the messiah by kicking Arabs out of their homes? What do you do with Haredim who believe that not just the Knesset but actually all of creation exists to foster their observance of archaic talmudic law?

You can't argue, reason, sympathize, or otherwise work with that. All you can do is hope that living together in this little country forces them and all of us to seek new ways of living together, to seek the human things that bind us.

Old bat yells at cloud.

[Oryxslayer]

Final turnout appears to be 71%.

[Kingpoleon]

Anyway, I'm done. I'm done defending Israel in this forum and generally. We're a deeply corrupt country and I have no business in this moral monstrosity. Bye.

I’ve said for a long time, Israel is much closer to the Arab world than a lot of us think. This kind of sectarianism is expected from a multitude of African, Asian, South American, and Arab countries. Israel was supposed to be better than this.

[Oryxslayer]

we have votes!

[Walmart_shopper]

Will somebody please post the links to the Ynet map and the official results page?

[Mike88]

Will somebody please post the links to the Ynet map and the official results page?

Official results:

https://votes23.bechirot.gov.il/

Ynet maps results:

https://z.ynet.co.il/short/content/ElectionMap2020/