Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

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I'm tired.

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https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1204465766453694464
Does Bibi want to lose? Bibi already has McLaughlin on board, so this would be a team of the worlds least savvy conservatives.

....I hate this

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....what would either of them have to gain from this??

Seriously. Lieberman would lose his centrist liberal voters who got him from his 5-Seat base to his 8-Seat success.

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Otzma and JH have agreed to run together, so we are getting a replay of the April election on the right (except this time Zehut isn't running).

Otzma get spots 3,6,9 which is what they demanded last time but were refused by JH.
National Union technically haven't agreed to join yet, but I don't see any other options for them.

Looks to me like Peretz kinda played Smotrich this time by ensuring good spots for his party, right?

Anyway, interesting that we're seeing a replay. It'll be so funny if the New Right doesn't pass the threshold again.

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Otzma and JH have agreed to run together, so we are getting a replay of the April election on the right (except this time Zehut isn't running).

Otzma get spots 3,6,9 which is what they demanded last time but were refused by JH.
National Union technically haven't agreed to join yet, but I don't see any other options for them.

Looks to me like Peretz kinda played Smotrich this time by ensuring good spots for his party, right?

Anyway, interesting that we're seeing a replay. It'll be so funny if the New Right doesn't pass the threshold again.

It would be funnier if they both miss the threshold.

If religious zionist voters have any values left they'll not vote for a nazi to the Knesset and that could happen, but I strongly doubt it.

Also, I saw a poll today showing the Democratic Camp below the threshold. The left really needs to get its sh**t together.

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Otzma and JH have agreed to run together, so we are getting a replay of the April election on the right (except this time Zehut isn't running).

Otzma get spots 3,6,9 which is what they demanded last time but were refused by JH.
National Union technically haven't agreed to join yet, but I don't see any other options for them.

Looks to me like Peretz kinda played Smotrich this time by ensuring good spots for his party, right?

Anyway, interesting that we're seeing a replay. It'll be so funny if the New Right doesn't pass the threshold again.

It would be funnier if they both miss the threshold.

If religious zionist voters have any values left they'll not vote for a nazi to the Knesset and that could happen, but I strongly doubt it.

Also, I saw a poll today showing the Democratic Camp below the threshold. The left really needs to get its sh**t together.

Seems to be an outlier since they’ve been consistently polling at 5 seats. Likud win 34 seats in that poll which obviously ain’t gonna happen.

Then again you’re overestimating the influence of the National Religious/“settler” right. In September the Kahanists missed the mark by a long shot, NR and BY had to join forces in order to survive and they still underperformed. This will definitely backfire

Dunno, they got 5 seats in round 1 and I don't really see where else these voters will go. They should be safe with at least 4 seats. Meanwhile, as we did see in round 2, Bennet&Shaked's electoral worth is seriously overestimated (though it seems like at least 12 right-wing seats are open to voting for them, they just don't do it because Likud's pull is much stronger).

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The Likud list primaries were cancelled by the party's court.

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Instead of trying to find a way to get Bibi to exit the stage gracefully, Lapid decided to put his own ego first and worsen the polarizing divide in Israeli society and politics. We all know Bibi is tired of this situation as well, why not give him an escape route that ends the stalemate and lets the country move on? Enough is enough.

It's not really true, though. The only conclusion one could get from Bibi's behavior in recent years is that his only desire is to cling to power. He's not in it for Israel, he's in it for himself. He's not tired of this situation of an electoral lock because this situation is beneficial to him- it keeps him out of jail for now. I don't really get the focus on Lapid, the only thing he's done is stop the insane and cynical plots Netanyahu was trying.

When people blame B&W for the third election I just present one question- in what bizarre world is it fair that the party gaining more seats and votes would be second in the rotation agreement? And in what even more bizarre world would it be fair for them to be forced to sit with ultra-religious, racist parties that go against every value of 99% of their voters? Netanyahu's demands were clear- he wanted to be first in rotation (even if for a year) and the only reason for that is his legal issues; and he was insisting to bring in the Haredi parties and Yamina. A vote for Netanyahu is a vote for Smotrich, Peretz and Ben Gvir.

Lastly- I do agree that Lieberman doesn't care about the country. He's one of the most cynical politicians in the country, and possibly the second most divisive after Netanyahu. Basically his entire political existence is centered around hating Arabs and hating Haredim. And of course, Bibi is not a partner for any honest negotiation. That's why the only positive solution I see at this point is that the center-left-Arab bloc get 61 seats. In this past year, under Ayman Odeh's leadership, the Joint List (barring Balad) proved that it's a willing partner for peace, so I'd welcome their support from outside to a center-left government. After Likud get rid of Bibi and get their house in order, a unity government can be formed safely.

I don't know who I'll vote for, though- the Israeli left is an absolute mess, but it still represents me better than B&W ever could.

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Fair points on YB and New Right, tho. I love Shaked but Bennett is the Israeli Ted Cruz (good views but unlikable).

As someone who's been loosely following Israeli politics since the 2013 election at least, watching the transformation of Bennett's public perception has actually been fascinating (if sad).

Many people may not remember, but he was very popular in 2013- there was a popular Facebook page making memes which were basically Chuck Norris jokes on Bennett templates (yes- he was viewed as very strong, as weird as it sounds now), and he was seen as a fresh leader and a future Prime Minister, with military background to help it. The 2013-2015 term in which he initially allied with Lapid in what was known as the "alliance of brothers", didn't particularly harm him. But the 2015 result was bad for his party- partially because he wasn't fresh anymore and because the right perceived a threat to Netanyahu with the Zionist Union, something that wasn't around in 2013. Then he grew increasingly desperate in trying to gain back support, making some populist moves like acting independently during a military operation and making it clear that he wasn't interested in his Education Ministry but instead aiming for Defence, which didn't go down well with people. Betraying religious zionism in 2019 just sealed the deal, and now he's become a joke for most people.

I'm glad to see we have such a great representation of ex-USSR/Russian-speaking Jews on Atlas! Parrotguy's family is also Russian-speaking/Ex-USSR and I am a Russian-speaking Jew from one of the Sephardi ex-USSR communities.

Raises hand!

Though I’m not ethnically Russian at all, am a Russian speaker. Ashkenazi from my mom’s side. Possibly Mizrahi from my dad, possibly not.

My parents were hardline Meretz voters, in case anyone was wondering.

Yeeee the russian speakers be here and we taking over!

My family are mostly Likudniks, Jewish Home or New Right supporters

Lol, looks like we have a majority here
My family is mixed- the overwhelming majority are extremely right wing and support Bibi or Lieberman, but my parents are the odd bird- my father has been a Labour voter ever since they did Aliyah, and only broke off this September to vote for KL (after voting Labour in April). My mother is very apolitical, but is broadly anti-Bibi and centrist. She was a pretty consistent Kadima voter and liked Livni, but then voted Lapid, then Zionist Union, and now B&W in all three rounds. I'm the oddest bird, of course, because I dared to put the letters מרצ in the ballot box, lol. My aunt was shocked to learn it and called me out for it in a family dinner but my parents defended me, which was nice.

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Fair points on YB and New Right, tho. I love Shaked but Bennett is the Israeli Ted Cruz (good views but unlikable).

As someone who's been loosely following Israeli politics since the 2013 election at least, watching the transformation of Bennett's public perception has actually been fascinating (if sad).

Many people may not remember, but he was very popular in 2013- there was a popular Facebook page making memes which were basically Chuck Norris jokes on Bennett templates (yes- he was viewed as very strong, as weird as it sounds now), and he was seen as a fresh leader and a future Prime Minister, with military background to help it. The 2013-2015 term in which he initially allied with Lapid in what was known as the "alliance of brothers", didn't particularly harm him. But the 2015 result was bad for his party- partially because he wasn't fresh anymore and because the right perceived a threat to Netanyahu with the Zionist Union, something that wasn't around in 2013. Then he grew increasingly desperate in trying to gain back support, making some populist moves like acting independently during a military operation and making it clear that he wasn't interested in his Education Ministry but instead aiming for Defence, which didn't go down well with people. Betraying religious zionism in 2019 just sealed the deal, and now he's become a joke for most people.

Do you think the same will happen with Shaked? I remember a few years ago seeing a bunch of people saying she was "the future of the Israeli right" and "poised to be the biggest Israeli woman in politics since Golda Meir" and stuff along those lines yet when she actually got the chance to lead the party she under performed massively. Her political strategy has been pretty weird too.

I kinda think it's already happening, though maybe to a lesser degree.

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Channel 12:
KL 35
Likud 33
Joint List 13
YB 8
Shas 8
UTJ 8
New Right 6
Labour-Gesher 5
Meretz 4
Jewish Home-Otzma 2.6%
National Union 0.9%
Green Party 0.0% (!)

57-55-8 Gantz-Bibi-Lieberman.

They also polled a version with Shaffir rejoining the Democratic Camp and the National Union joining the JH:

KL 34
Likud 32
Joint List 13
Shas 8
UTJ 7
YB 7
New Right 6
Labour-Gesher 5
Jewish Home 4
Democratic Camp 4

57-56-7 Bibi-Gantz-Lieberman

Also asked about a preferred Prime Minister:
Bibi 40%
Gantz 39%

So practically a tie on that front. In the past, none of Netanyahu's challengers even came close, so this is a pretty major advancement.

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Stav Shaffir needs to act fast if she wants to remain MK. She has no support alone, even from people who like her, because she has no chance. As part of the DC, she does bring a lot of voters as the factor that tips the balance and makes it more than just Meretz.

Also, a hilarious-sad piece of new:
A party lead by Yigal Amir's wife Larisa has been approved to run next election. It doesn't express any explicit support of Rabin's murder so it was approved, but it's promoting "examining past convictions and supporting retrials".

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New Right say the right wing to far right parties are set on running separately.

Shaffir and Meretz are kissing and making up and a Labour-Meretz merger is still being worked on. So the left and right and really moving in different directions with regards to unity. Just, I suppose, as you'd expect in an election featuring a doomed right wing prime minister.

That'd guarantee like 10-12 seats for them, right?

Would any center-left Labor voters be put off by a Meretz alliance, potentially pushing them to B&W?

Also, pretty laughable how Likud haven't won a single opinion poll this election cycle, nor have the right wing bloc gotten over 58 seats. The fall from grace is something else.

More like 7-9 seats. Each party has 1-2 seats they got from panic voters, together B&W will drink them thoroughly

Yep, though initial polls would show them with 12-14 I assume.

Also, I've seen nothing with Shaffir and Meretz making up- only that she offered to give up the 2nd place to a representative of the Arab community and that Meretz want to push her down to the unrealistic 6th as payment for all she sacrificed and did to save them last time. At this point, after how they treated her, I'm probably going to vote for Labour-Gesher.

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New Right say the right wing to far right parties are set on running separately.

Shaffir and Meretz are kissing and making up and a Labour-Meretz merger is still being worked on. So the left and right and really moving in different directions with regards to unity. Just, I suppose, as you'd expect in an election featuring a doomed right wing prime minister.

That'd guarantee like 10-12 seats for them, right?

Would any center-left Labor voters be put off by a Meretz alliance, potentially pushing them to B&W?

Also, pretty laughable how Likud haven't won a single opinion poll this election cycle, nor have the right wing bloc gotten over 58 seats. The fall from grace is something else.

More like 7-9 seats. Each party has 1-2 seats they got from panic voters, together B&W will drink them thoroughly

Yep, though initial polls would show them with 12-14 I assume.

Also, I've seen nothing with Shaffir and Meretz making up- only that she offered to give up the 2nd place to a representative of the Arab community and that Meretz want to push her down to the unrealistic 6th as payment for all she sacrificed and did to save them last time. At this point, after how they treated her, I'm probably going to vote for Labour-Gesher.

What's their aim for this? Trying to steal votes from JL?

Well, steal is kind of a harsh word for that, but basically creating a Jewish-Arab partnership that could get some Arab votes. I personally don't know if it's such a great idea politically, but whatever.

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New Right say the right wing to far right parties are set on running separately.

Shaffir and Meretz are kissing and making up and a Labour-Meretz merger is still being worked on. So the left and right and really moving in different directions with regards to unity. Just, I suppose, as you'd expect in an election featuring a doomed right wing prime minister.

That'd guarantee like 10-12 seats for them, right?

Would any center-left Labor voters be put off by a Meretz alliance, potentially pushing them to B&W?

Also, pretty laughable how Likud haven't won a single opinion poll this election cycle, nor have the right wing bloc gotten over 58 seats. The fall from grace is something else.

More like 7-9 seats. Each party has 1-2 seats they got from panic voters, together B&W will drink them thoroughly

Yep, though initial polls would show them with 12-14 I assume.

Also, I've seen nothing with Shaffir and Meretz making up- only that she offered to give up the 2nd place to a representative of the Arab community and that Meretz want to push her down to the unrealistic 6th as payment for all she sacrificed and did to save them last time. At this point, after how they treated her, I'm probably going to vote for Labour-Gesher.

What's their aim for this? Trying to steal votes from JL?

Well, steal is kind of a harsh word for that, but basically creating a Jewish-Arab partnership that could get some Arab votes. I personally don't know if it's such a great idea politically, but whatever.

Isn't that the purpose Hadash was supposed to serve? Also, would many Arab-Israelis vote for a Zionist party?

Not many, but Meretz was saved from the threshold in round 1 by Arab votes who defected from the splintered Arab parties. So it could happen.

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Amir Peretz suggested that KL, Labour-Gesher and Meretz run together on the same ticket. Absolutely ridiculous and disgraceful in that it'd gravely harm the chance to defeat Netanyahu, bury any remains of leftism in Israel and is especially cynical considering his arguments AGAINST uniting with Meretz.

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So Shaffir left Labour after losing the leadership election, took over a random minor Green party just like that and joined up with Meretz only to dump them again? What's the point? Why didn't she just wait for Peretz to inevitably flop and leave?

She left Labour because its leader wouldn't agree to a left-wing merger, and she gave up a safe seat on the Labour list to broker an agreement between Meretz and Ehud Barak's Democratic Israel party (sources in Meretz even said that such a merger could not be possible without her joining too). She then took green causes up and started promoting them heavily, which gotta be admired, even if she didn't start that way in politics. Now, she didn't dump Meretz- according to most sources she was pusehd out by an ingrateful party that decided she didn't bring any votes (wrong- their vote share in urban areas rose significantly, compensating and more for lost Arab support). They're now offering her the 6th or 5th spot, which are unrealistic for the former and very risky for the latter.

Well, it might be a pretty rosey view of her moves. I'm sure she's done a lot wrong, and her Tel Aviv-centric politics irk me. But Meretz have been treating her really badly.

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Some gems from Education Minister Rafi Peretz in an interview published this weekend:
Asked what if his children had a different sexual orientation: "Thank God, my children grew up in a normative and healthy manner, and build their homes in a Jewish manner... A normative family is a man and a woman and it should be kept that way."

About Kahanist Ben Gvir: "He came a long way, he's not really a Kahanist at this point but a legitimate partner." (reminder that Ben Gvir constantly praises Kahana and has a picture of mass-murderer Baruch Goldstein adorning his wall)

About annexing the West Bank, whether the Palestinians will get an Israeli citizenship and be able to vote for the Knesset: "The Palestinians will be able to live a good life and vote in their municipal elections."

On Ayelet Shaked: "I really respect her... Her husband is an army pilot in the reserves, I know how it is when the husband is a pilot and goes off to train, it takes a great effort to preserve the home and I respect it."

On whether conversion therapy works: "It's a complicated question and requires a lot of discussion."

Nothing new, of course- our Education Minister is a rabidly homophobic Kahanism-apologizer Appartheid supporter. But I think this interview sums it up rather well.

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So the next week is going to be very eventful, possibly the most eventful week since the election was announced the things to watch:

1. At the beginning of the week, we'll probably see a flurry of activity in the Knesset as Kahol-Lavan and Yisrael Beiteinu vie to start the Knesset Committee to discuss Netanyahu's immunity request. The Knesset's legal counsel (who was under heavy attack by the right-wing machine this week) already said that there's nothing legally preventing such a committee. There are two scenarios here: either longtime Knesset Speaker Yuli Edlestein (Likud) vetoes it and likely gets replaced by MK Meir Cohen from KL (with Lieberman abstaining if I had to guess), or Edlestein is disarmed by the legal counsel and says he can't prevent the committee.

2. The end of the week will see the closing of the party lists, always a very eventful time. Two key questions:

a. What will happen to the right of Likud? According to Shaked, and following Bennet-Peretz and Bennet-Smotrich meetings, a Yamina-type union is definitely in the cards, but Bennet is apparently refusing to run with Otzma and Peretz is refusing to break the agreement he signed with Otzma, so hard to see how they get past this. So this means either a New Right-Jewish Home-National Union-Otzma list or the same without Otzma (basically Yamina). The other option is two parties to the right of Likud- one would have the New Right and one would have Jewish Home-Otzma, that's for sure, but it's unclear where Smotrich and the National Union stands. After Peretz signed an agreement with Otzma without consulting with him there's a deep rift between them, so this makes it hard. Three options there- either he doesn't run at all (unlikely), he runs with the New Right (apparently polls showed this to be successful as he's very personally popular in the religious zionist public, much more-so than Peretz, but doubt Bennet and Shaked would go for it) or he runs with the Jewish Home-Otzma in a similar build as the URWP from April (but with Ben Gvir third). Apparently Shaked is pressuring Bennet to run with Otzma, but he fears it'll scare off liberal right-wing voters (and shows his political stupidity, because relying on the liberal right got him below the threshold already). Who would lead a united list? In his interview Peretz said that a religious list should be lead by a religious person, so I'd guess Bennet would lead, followed by Peretz, Smotrich, Shaked and finally Ben-Gvir.

b. What about the left? They have less factions that can shift but are just as messy as the right. Apparently Labour is considering a last-minute merger with Meretz, presumably Orly Levy and Gesher would follow but probably not happily. So it's either going to be a united left list or Labour-Gesher and the Democartic Camp, similar to September. Unclear what will happen with Shaffir- if the parties run separately I guess she'd find a place in the Democratic Camp, but Labour could demand that she be kept out of a united list (or she could be placed low). Either way she's become the punching bag of the left. Amir Peretz would definitely lead a united list. Apparently, even KL tried to push for this union, promising Peretz favourable government negotiation terms and even support in the race for the Presidency.

c. Some more minor questions: Meretz were apparently looking for an Arab figure to put second on their list, what's up with that? Will Kahol-Lavan make any changes to their list, possibly including more women in the top 10? Any other changes to parties like the New Right, Shas or Yisrael Beiteinu?

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Amir Peretz said there's no choice but to unite with Meretz. It's happening, the only obstacle I can see now is Orly Levy. Hopefully the Labour team leads the campaign efforts, Meretz always seems to run awful campaigns. Peretz was basically forced to do it by his MKs, some of them were reportedly threatening to join Meretz or other parties.

According to channel 12: Labour-Gesher going to demand 7 out of the top 10 list, the fight will likely be about whether the 4th Meretz representative (Ilan Gilon, I assume) will be 10th or 11th.

As a side note, Tamar Zandberg gotta be the most useless politician on the left. She lead the effort to stab Stav Shaffir in the back and now she's probably going to take a place that could be given to a politician like Ilan Gilon, who has at least some electoral worth.

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Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

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Labour-Gesher-Meretz union official. Looks like the top 5 will be this:
1. Peretz
2. Levy
3. Horovitz
4. Zandberg
5. Shmuli

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Labour-Gesher-Meretz union official. Looks like the top 5 will be this:
1. Peretz
2. Levy
3. Horovitz
4. Zandberg
5. Shmuli

6. Michaeli
7. Golan
8. Gilon
9. Bar Lev
10. Suede
11. Freg


Poor Freg, I thought pushing Shaffir down was to make room for him...oh it was a spin.

I hope they get 7 seats

Freg is apparently angry now that he's outside the top 10 and is demanding for Golan's reserved spot to be cancelled. What a power-hungry, useless politician. He thinks he speaks for all Arabs for some reason and uses it to backstab other people left and right (mostly left )

I want them to get 10 seats so that Bar Lev and Swid can be in. But looking at this list makes me realize how bad Meretz is- aside from Horovitz I don't really like any of them.

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Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

The union will land 6-8 seats and hopefully Gilon is out. Wretched parties

The joint run will not get six seats. Good grief. They will clearly get at least 8 and probably nine or ten.

Want to have a bet? Lunch next time I’m in Jerusalem

I’m positive this list gets no more than 7 seats. B&W will get 38, JL 14

Lol sorry what

DU and Labor-Gesher got 405k votes between them in September, do you expect 40% of their voterbase to die before March?

I’ll say 10. JL 13, B&W 37. I’ve seen no reason to assume the Joint List will gain more seats- the only thing that will push them to 14/15 is if the Jewish Home fail to meet the threshold and NR underperform.

A substantial amount of Labour and Meretz voters voted out of fear not sympathy. That fear is now gone. Literally no one responded with any positive feedback to this Union. Absolute silence on social media

The only buzz about the union that I'm seeing on social media is negativity about keeping Shaffir out (which is proving an increasingly big mistake).

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The musical chairs on the right continue, as Smotrich joins with New Right. Peretz now has to decide if he's joining again or going alone with Otzma.

Yep. Looks like the door is open for Peretz but not for Ben Gvir. This is an exceedingly dumb move imo- the Jewish Home has a serious risk of not passing the threshold. But the level of pettiness is impressive- Peretz betrayed Smotrich by signing an agreement with Otzma behind his back, so now Smotrich is signing with Bennet behind Peretz's back.