Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Walmart_shopper]

That's the day after Purim, I think. Keep the fun alive, right?

[Walmart_shopper]

I'm tired.

Wait for March, habibi. Your patience will be rewarded.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is there any reason to believe the results might be any different this time?  Perhaps Arab fatigue lower seat count of Joint List and helping Likud.

Arab fatigue? No, what will make this election different and decidedly unhelpful to the Likud is Netanyahu fatigue. The left (and indefatigable Arabs) smell blood and a significant non-Bibist flank of the right just doesn't even care anymore about propping up an indicted and autocratic pm who has cannibalized all the energy and ideas on the right for his own political survival. These are factors that give the left a majority.

It may in fact play out exactly as it did in September, but if it's different it will be favorably so for the left and not the right.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/lapid-gives-up-rotation-deal-with-gantz-in-bid-to-boost-blue-and-white/

Wise move. I find him cringeworthy as hell, no idea why.

Edit: Also I’ve always been convinced he’s a closet bisexual. What’s with him always hugging and kissing his male colleagues?

Not bisexual. Just Israeli.

[Walmart_shopper]

Channel 13 poll:
Blue and White -37
Likud - 33
Joint List – 13
Yisrael Beytenu – 8
United Torah Judaism – 7
Shas – 6
New Right – 6
Labor – 5
Democratic Camp – 5

Centre-Left-Arab: 60
Right: 52

UTJ and Shas are losing that many seats. Junk poll

The New Right won't get six seats, either. These polls tend to get the individual party diatribution of seats wrong, but they're not bad on the blocs. The reason the left has 60 seats in thia poll is that Blue and White is leading by four mandates over a weary Likud party. And that is totally plausible given the turmoil the Likud is going through. Most polling and virtually every political observer believes that the left will finish either with the same narrow plurality they have now or even a small majority.

[Walmart_shopper]

Channel 13 poll:
Blue and White -37
Likud - 33
Joint List – 13
Yisrael Beytenu – 8
United Torah Judaism – 7
Shas – 6
New Right – 6
Labor – 5
Democratic Camp – 5

Centre-Left-Arab: 60
Right: 52

UTJ and Shas are losing that many seats. Junk poll

Or they could be expecting higher turnout, which hurts the high-floor low-ceiling Haredim. But yes, not the best poll to be taken at face value.

It shows a net gain for the left of a mere three seats. Given Netanyahu's increasingly toxic effect on his party, a bitter leadership election, and the possibility of a Likud turnout drop, I would actually be a bit surprised if the left gains anything less than 2-3 seats in March.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1204465766453694464
Does Bibi want to lose? Bibi already has McLaughlin on board, so this would be a team of the worlds least savvy conservatives.

....I hate this

Obviously Bibi is going for the morally dystopian, casually racist, unpopular sith lord brand here. It only worked in America because Clinton was unbearable and a Democratic turnour drop. It won't work for Netanyahu because he is Trump and Clinton all at the same time, and Benny Gantz is a likeable and trustworthy outsider that the Likud can't figure out how to run against.

It will, however, push the worst buttons and create a very scary and potentially violent political climate. We have known for a while that Netanyahu will bring the entire country and even the Zionist enterprise down with him. That's why voters will defeat him in March, but it's not at all clear what kind of an ash heap the rest of us will be left to clean up and piece together. Gantz will need to develop a certain vehemance and passion he's been lacking because he won't succeed with what Netanyahu is leaving him unless he develops a radical instinct that isn't afraid to do bold things to rebuild Israeli democracy.

[Walmart_shopper]

Meretz is talking about merging with the Arabs again.

Do it, finally.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liberman-backs-pardon-for-netanyahu-in-exchange-for-exit-from-politics/

Lmao

If this would be enforceable, it seems like a good solution.

If you're into corrupt and privileged elites getting off the hook solely based on their ability to leverage their political influence, yes. If you are trying to build a democratic and hopeful country for all of its citizens, no.

[Walmart_shopper]

Meretz is talking about merging with the Arabs again.

Lol yikes

This will never work in their favor. Their voter base will flock to Labor and they’ll probably fail to make the threshold at the following election.

I think you're underestimating the radicalism of Meretz voters.

[Walmart_shopper]

Yisrael HaYom found a new pollster (at last), and here is what they released this morning:

Blue and White 37
Likud 31
Joint List 14
Shas 8
Yisrael Beiteinu 8
UTJ 7
Labor - Gesher 6
New Right 5
 Democratic Camp 4

Left 61
Right 51

Other polling this week showed the left with 58 to 60 (and a healthy lead over the right), and Blue and White with at least a 3 mandate advantage over the Likud. One Maariv poll showed the left dropling to 56 mandates with the Likud down only 2 and both New Right and Jewish Home clearing the threshold. This last poll is definitely the ceiling for the right wing, and the bulk of polling puts the left on the cusp of an outright majority.

[Walmart_shopper]

Can I also just say how mindbogglingly weird it is that in Israel (of all places) the left is ascendent while in so many other countries, even more conventionally leftist ones, the right has recently come near or actually into power. Obviously the same global political trends happening in the UK, Australia, Italy, Uruguay and Poland and on and on are at work here, too, but the fact that Israel still has a meaningfully competitive center-left in a global milieu like this is perhaps a small miracle. I think that is less about the left or the right in Israel than about the catastrophic influence Netanyahu is having on the right wing, but I suppose the fact that one of the world's strongest right wings is letting itself implode to protect one morally questionable man from prosecution for serious felonies is actually not believable. Of all the places in the world, Israel is one where the left shouldn't be so resurgent. As much as I would love to see this phenomenon copy-pasted in the US, Hungary, and Brazil, the truth is that bad (and probably much worse than Netanyahu) leadership is not necessary crippling the autocratic right in those places.

[Walmart_shopper]

Meretz is talking about merging with the Arabs again.

Lol yikes

This will never work in their favor. Their voter base will flock to Labor and they’ll probably fail to make the threshold at the following election.

I think you're underestimating the radicalism of Meretz voters.

So it would go from 13 seats refusing to be part of a coalition to... 18 seats refusing to be part of a coalition? Really don't see what this would achieve tbh.

I never said it would increase votes for the left--only that Meretz voters wouldn't be put off by partnership with the Joint List.  In any case, the point would be to keep Meretz from dipping under the threshold, which is entirely possible. Labor is probably better off with Blue and White, anyway, which gives a center right bloc of 40-43 seats and the left-left a bloc of 17-19 seats. Do the math and you have close to a majority with zero chance of anyone going under the threshold.

[Walmart_shopper]

Can I also just say how mindbogglingly weird it is that in Israel (of all places) the left is ascendent while in so many other countries, even more conventionally leftist ones, the right has recently come near or actually into power. Obviously the same global political trends happening in the UK, Australia, Italy, Uruguay and Poland and on and on are at work here, too, but the fact that Israel still has a meaningfully competitive center-left in a global milieu like this is perhaps a small miracle. I think that is less about the left or the right in Israel than about the catastrophic influence Netanyahu is having on the right wing, but I suppose the fact that one of the world's strongest right wings is letting itself implode to protect one morally questionable man from prosecution for serious felonies is actually not believable. Of all the places in the world, Israel is one where the left shouldn't be so resurgent. As much as I would love to see this phenomenon copy-pasted in the US, Hungary, and Brazil, the truth is that bad (and probably much worse than Netanyahu) leadership is not necessary crippling the autocratic right in those places.

I don’t know what left is ascending. B&W is centrist at best with edges on both sides, but it’s a left party and the 4 chiefs especially are pretty right wing

In what way is Gantz right wing?

In what way is he left wing?

He believes in a broadly liberal and democratic society that is carefully protective of minorities and favors a cooperative and open politics over a rigid and religious ideological politics. He supports a robust and politically independent judiciary, a non clerical state, and a conciliatory approach to the Palestinians.

This is today's center-left in Israel. Yiu can compare our center left with the center left in other countries or our own center left decades ago. But in Israel today these ideas define the left and not the right.

[Walmart_shopper]

He's an ex-IDF Chief of Staff for one thing.

IDF leadership is well known for being a preserve of left-leaning Rabin-clones. In Israel military leadership makes you more and not less likely to be a leftist.

[Walmart_shopper]

Can I also just say how mindbogglingly weird it is that in Israel (of all places) the left is ascendent while in so many other countries, even more conventionally leftist ones, the right has recently come near or actually into power. Obviously the same global political trends happening in the UK, Australia, Italy, Uruguay and Poland and on and on are at work here, too, but the fact that Israel still has a meaningfully competitive center-left in a global milieu like this is perhaps a small miracle. I think that is less about the left or the right in Israel than about the catastrophic influence Netanyahu is having on the right wing, but I suppose the fact that one of the world's strongest right wings is letting itself implode to protect one morally questionable man from prosecution for serious felonies is actually not believable. Of all the places in the world, Israel is one where the left shouldn't be so resurgent. As much as I would love to see this phenomenon copy-pasted in the US, Hungary, and Brazil, the truth is that bad (and probably much worse than Netanyahu) leadership is not necessary crippling the autocratic right in those places.

I don’t know what left is ascending. B&W is centrist at best with edges on both sides, but it’s a left party and the 4 chiefs especially are pretty right wing

In what way is Gantz right wing?

In what way is he left wing?

He believes in a broadly liberal and democratic society that is carefully protective of minorities and favors a cooperative and open politics over a rigid and religious ideological politics. He supports a robust and politically independent judiciary, a non clerical state, and a conciliatory approach to the Palestinians.

This is today's center-left in Israel. Yiu can compare our center left with the center left in other countries or our own center left decades ago. But in Israel today these ideas define the left and not the right.

How is he different from Rivlin, Hanegbi and other moderate right wingers?

I don't actually think there is a significant ideological gap between Rabin, Rivlin, and Gantz.  The difference is that when the most crucial political decisions have to be made, the moderate Likudniks lean right (as Kahlon did over and over and over and over) while Gantz seems to lean left.

[Walmart_shopper]

Can I also just say how mindbogglingly weird it is that in Israel (of all places) the left is ascendent while in so many other countries, even more conventionally leftist ones, the right has recently come near or actually into power. Obviously the same global political trends happening in the UK, Australia, Italy, Uruguay and Poland and on and on are at work here, too, but the fact that Israel still has a meaningfully competitive center-left in a global milieu like this is perhaps a small miracle. I think that is less about the left or the right in Israel than about the catastrophic influence Netanyahu is having on the right wing, but I suppose the fact that one of the world's strongest right wings is letting itself implode to protect one morally questionable man from prosecution for serious felonies is actually not believable. Of all the places in the world, Israel is one where the left shouldn't be so resurgent. As much as I would love to see this phenomenon copy-pasted in the US, Hungary, and Brazil, the truth is that bad (and probably much worse than Netanyahu) leadership is not necessary crippling the autocratic right in those places.

I don’t know what left is ascending. B&W is centrist at best with edges on both sides, but it’s a left party and the 4 chiefs especially are pretty right wing

In what way is Gantz right wing?

In what way is he left wing?

He believes in a broadly liberal and democratic society that is carefully protective of minorities and favors a cooperative and open politics over a rigid and religious ideological politics. He supports a robust and politically independent judiciary, a non clerical state, and a conciliatory approach to the Palestinians.

This is today's center-left in Israel. Yiu can compare our center left with the center left in other countries or our own center left decades ago. But in Israel today these ideas define the left and not the right.

How is he different from Rivlin, Hanegbi and other moderate right wingers?

I don't actually think there is a significant ideological gap between Rabin, Rivlin, and Gantz.  The difference is that when the most crucial political decisions have to be made, the moderate Likudniks lean right (as Kahlon did over and over and over and over) while Gantz seems to lean left.

I supposed we need to calibrate our terms for left and right here. I think he leans ‘center’, certainly wouldn’t put him more than an inch to the left of the center

Yes, I basically agree and I too lament the fact that the Israeli (and American) left would be considered centrist in a lot of Western countries. But, alas, we have the country and political spectrum we have.

[Walmart_shopper]

If this is accurate it'd be the first time the National Religious have had no political representation in Israel's history, right?

Isn't New Right also a national religious party?

Bennet's project, symbolized in his embrace of Ayelet Shaked, was a modernized national religious party conversant with non-religious segments on the right. He largely failed in that as Jewish Home head and New Right is his own attempt at forging a third way between the messianic right and the secular Jabotinskyite right.

[Walmart_shopper]

I find it hard to believe that Shaffir would run on her own, it sounds like grandstanding to create leverage to me.

Especially after her embarassing primary loss and subsequent departure from Labor before the last election. At some point you have to realize that politics is a team sport.

[Walmart_shopper]

Otzma and JH have agreed to run together, so we are getting a replay of the April election on the right (except this time Zehut isn't running).

Otzma get spots 3,6,9 which is what they demanded last time but were refused by JH.
National Union technically haven't agreed to join yet, but I don't see any other options for them.

Looks to me like Peretz kinda played Smotrich this time by ensuring good spots for his party, right?

Anyway, interesting that we're seeing a replay. It'll be so funny if the New Right doesn't pass the threshold again.

It would be funnier if they both miss the threshold.

[Walmart_shopper]

Otzma and JH have agreed to run together, so we are getting a replay of the April election on the right (except this time Zehut isn't running).

Otzma get spots 3,6,9 which is what they demanded last time but were refused by JH.
National Union technically haven't agreed to join yet, but I don't see any other options for them.

Does this not mean they will be above the threshold for sure? If so why should there be any belief that the deadlock will end after the March 2020 election ?

No, definitely not. Both Jewish Home and New Right will almost inevitably be on the edge of the threshold and the best case scenario for the right is each getting in and netting maybe 8 or 9 mandates. Even that, though, would probably not give the right wing anything close to 61 mandates.

It seems to me that this election comes down to either a left wing majority or more deadlock that is either resolved by Liberman choosing a side (probably the right wing) in a narrow government or Netanyahu stepping down. That is actually the exact inverse of the last election, where the left didn't even dream of a majority but just wanted to keep the right from getting 61 seats. This time around I think the right is just hoping to keep Gantz from getting a majority and, at most, getting more seats than the left block.

[Walmart_shopper]

Otzma and JH have agreed to run together, so we are getting a replay of the April election on the right (except this time Zehut isn't running).

Otzma get spots 3,6,9 which is what they demanded last time but were refused by JH.
National Union technically haven't agreed to join yet, but I don't see any other options for them.

Looks to me like Peretz kinda played Smotrich this time by ensuring good spots for his party, right?

Anyway, interesting that we're seeing a replay. It'll be so funny if the New Right doesn't pass the threshold again.

It would be funnier if they both miss the threshold.

If religious zionist voters have any values left they'll not vote for a nazi to the Knesset and that could happen, but I strongly doubt it.

Also, I saw a poll today showing the Democratic Camp below the threshold. The left really needs to get its sh**t together.

I think the point is that for many religious zionist values today are precisely about electing a Nazi to the Knesset. And for the religious Zionists who still have some residual attachment to ordinary democratic values there is the Likud, which is itself becoming less democratic and sane as it becomes more entrenched in a religious Zionist milieu.

[Walmart_shopper]

Some controversy over the Bayit Yehudi + Otzma mess. BYs central committee is gonna put it to a vote.

I'm not sure that it's realistic to expect BY to have even a fragment of the moral sense necessary to reject bringing Otzmah on board. But I would love to be surprised.

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud primaries results show as you can imagine overwhelming numbers for Bibi. Saar managed to win in 2 small towns, some Druze villages, and Tel Aviv (excluding southern Tel Aviv).

So much for the New Likudniks. I always assumed that the looming Likud civil war would leave the party in ash with more moderate leadership to clean up the mess. While a Likud civil war after March is still quite likely, I'm actually very skeptical that the party will really change, much. It has lost so much of the sane right and absorbed so much of the religious and racist right that I don't know how the party ever manages to pivot left from here. It's a weird situation in which the the Likud can't win with the Bibists but they can't win without them, either.

[Walmart_shopper]

So isn't the problem for March that Democratic Camp/Meretz might fall under the threshold and that that might screw up the left numbers? Do you all think the Democratic Camp is going to survive or not?

They will probably survive, but the risk of not passing the threshold is real enough that a Labor-Meretz joint run is rather important. A joint run ensures that the right gets nowhere near 61 seats and it possibly even gets the left an outright majority. Some people think that those parties running separately would actually net more seats for the left, but the risk that Meretz falls below the threshold is so real that the country's future shouldn't be gambled away just because leftist politicians are being petty or risky or whatever.