2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Gass3268]

Lol, they nested the HoD districts into the Senate districts even though there is no requirement.

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1468698441572397068?s=20

Trende at his best!

Being originally from a state that does nest their districts, I like their explanation. Poll works will love this, which is nice.

[LimoLiberal]

If that's the final Senate map it would be difficult to dislodge the Democratic majority. I believe the 20th seat would be Clinton +7/Biden +17 SD-16 in Henrico County.

[Skill and Chance]

Spanberger and Wittman are double-bunked in VA-01 here, the seat went from Trump +16 to Trump +10, so probably picks Wittman in 2022 but Spanberger could certainly be back later in the decade.

Perhaps her best bet would be to carpetbag to new VA-10?  She would be the ideal Dem candidate to hold a seat like that in this environment.

[Skill and Chance]

If that's the final Senate map it would be difficult to dislodge the Democratic majority. I believe the 20th seat would be Clinton +7/Biden +17 SD-16 in Henrico County.

Do you mean 20th R seat?  D's need 21 now or Sears breaks ties. 

[lfromnj]

The GOP incumbents should be fine, Wittman might grumble a bit but the territory that is switched from his district is more D leaning .  Now the Democrats are interesting. Luria is losing for 2022 but she should still try of course if the environment gets better. The seat won't be a rental for the GOP at least.

Now Spanberger can not win the new West Henrico to  Williamsburg seat. Simple as that it is Safe R for 2022. Now Wexton also may not be too happy about the new Loudoun seat. The current district is Biden +19 but she only won by 13.  The new seat has a few more downscale rural areas but if I had to bet she would have won by around 5 points in 2020.  She may consider trying to persuade Connally to move to PWC or move there herself. So there is still clearly an open NOVA seat . Spanberger may be the one who considers taking the leftover NOVA seat or she simply has to retire.

[Gass3268]

While not perfect, all three maps are better than what the commission was working on.

[Skill and Chance]

The GOP incumbents should be fine, Wittman might grumble a bit but the territory that is switched from his district is more D leaning .  Now the Democrats are interesting. Luria is losing for 2022 but she should still try of course if the environment gets better.

Now Spanberger can not win the new West Henrico to  Williamsburg seat. Simple as that it is Safe R for 2022. Now Wexton also may not be too happy about the new Loudoun seat. The current district is Biden +19 but she only won by 13.  The new seat has a few more downscale rural areas but if I had to bet she would have won by around 5 points in 2020.  She may consider trying to persuade Connally to move to PWC or move there herself. So there is still clearly an open NOVA seat . Spanberger may be the one who considers taking the leftover NOVA seat or she simply has to retire.

Oh, that's right, Wexton lives in Loudoun, so the Lean (Tilt in 2022?) D NOVA seat already has an incumbent.  It's extremely likely Carroll-Foy or Ayala goes for Safe D VA-01 then.

On the other hand, that VA-10 has just enough rural territory for R's to nominate someone unapologetically Trumpy.  Could easily turn into a reverse CO-03 situation where D's always nominate a ski resort lefty and lose.

[Skill and Chance]

What does the tipping point look like in the HoD?

[lfromnj]

The GOP incumbents should be fine, Wittman might grumble a bit but the territory that is switched from his district is more D leaning .  Now the Democrats are interesting. Luria is losing for 2022 but she should still try of course if the environment gets better.

Now Spanberger can not win the new West Henrico to  Williamsburg seat. Simple as that it is Safe R for 2022. Now Wexton also may not be too happy about the new Loudoun seat. The current district is Biden +19 but she only won by 13.  The new seat has a few more downscale rural areas but if I had to bet she would have won by around 5 points in 2020.  She may consider trying to persuade Connally to move to PWC or move there herself. So there is still clearly an open NOVA seat . Spanberger may be the one who considers taking the leftover NOVA seat or she simply has to retire.

Oh, that's right, Wexton lives in Loudoun, so the Lean (Tilt in 2022?) D NOVA seat already has an incumbent.  It's extremely likely Carroll-Foy or Ayala goes for Safe D VA-01 then.

Well an important rule is incumbents generally like to run away to safer seats if they can.

[Tekken_Guy]

Spanberger and Wittman are double-bunked in VA-01 here, the seat went from Trump +16 to Trump +10, so probably picks Wittman in 2022 but Spanberger could certainly be back later in the decade.

Perhaps her best bet would be to carpetbag to new VA-10?  She would be the ideal Dem candidate to hold a seat like that in this environment.

Also, A lot of its rural areas make up the northern parts of VA-7. Otherwise she probably has to primary Don McEachin.

[LimoLiberal]

If that's the final Senate map it would be difficult to dislodge the Democratic majority. I believe the 20th seat would be Clinton +7/Biden +17 SD-16 in Henrico County.

Do you mean 20th R seat?  D's need 21 now or Sears breaks ties. 

I meant the 20th D seat, oops.

The 21st D seat would be Clinton +6/Biden +13 SD-31 in outer Loudoun and the northern half of Fauquier. Still pretty tough.

[lfromnj]

Spanberger and Wittman are double-bunked in VA-01 here, the seat went from Trump +16 to Trump +10, so probably picks Wittman in 2022 but Spanberger could certainly be back later in the decade.

Perhaps her best bet would be to carpetbag to new VA-10?  She would be the ideal Dem candidate to hold a seat like that in this environment.

Also, A lot of its rural areas make up the northern parts of VA-7. Otherwise she probably has to primary Don McEachin.

Yeah the main issue with that is the Dem primary base would clearly be Loudoun and obviously very ambitious NOVA pols who were not as shellacked as their comrades in outstate.

[LimoLiberal]

I don't know if Trende will allow it but Albemarle/CVille is gonna lobby extremely hard to be united and they'll know what they're doing (lib professors - see Ann Arbor).  

[Skill and Chance]

If that's the final Senate map it would be difficult to dislodge the Democratic majority. I believe the 20th seat would be Clinton +7/Biden +17 SD-16 in Henrico County.

Do you mean 20th R seat?  D's need 21 now or Sears breaks ties. 

I meant the 20th D seat, oops.

The 21st D seat would be Clinton +6/Biden +13 SD-31 in outer Loudoun and the northern half of Fauquier. Still pretty tough.

Hmmm...  the currently decisive seat by presidential #'s. was the Clinton +7 SD-21, a Roanoke to the college towns gerrymander in SWVA.  It was probably a lot less than Biden +13, though, because Clinton did worse than Obama there.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does John Edwards have a good seat to run in here?

[LimoLiberal]

Does John Edwards have a good seat to run in here?

They compromised on a much milder gerrymander that brings his seat to Trump +7 in 2016 and Trump +0.6 in 2020. He probably couldn't hold on in this political environment but could still in 2023.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does John Edwards have a good seat to run in here?

They compromised on a much milder gerrymander that brings his seat to Trump +7 in 2016 and Trump +0.6 in 2020. He probably couldn't hold on in this political environment but could still in 2023.

In total, how many Biden districts in the House and how many in the Senate, under these lines?

[Stuart98]

Does John Edwards have a good seat to run in here?

They compromised on a much milder gerrymander that brings his seat to Trump +7 in 2016 and Trump +0.6 in 2020. He probably couldn't hold on in this political environment but could still in 2023.

In total, how many Biden districts in the House and how many in the Senate, under these lines?

Senate Map

Pres 2016: 23D-17R
Gov 2017: 24D-16R
Sen 2018: 26D-14R
Pres 2020: 24D-16R

House Map

Pres 2016: 52D-48R
Gov 2017: 56D-44R
Sen 2018: 68D-32R
Pres 2020: 60D-40R

[Oryxslayer]

Does John Edwards have a good seat to run in here?

They compromised on a much milder gerrymander that brings his seat to Trump +7 in 2016 and Trump +0.6 in 2020. He probably couldn't hold on in this political environment but could still in 2023.

In total, how many Biden districts in the House and how many in the Senate, under these lines?

Senate Map

Pres 2016: 23D-17R
Gov 2017: 24D-16R
Sen 2018: 26D-14R
Pres 2020: 24D-16R

House Map

Pres 2016: 52D-48R
Gov 2017: 56D-44R
Sen 2018: 68D-32R
Pres 2020: 60D-40R

Notably, because of reapportionment and undoing some of the State House 2011 Gerry in places like Charlottesville and Fredericksburg, the GOP would need to win in 2023 by even more than in 2021 to hold the state house.

[Skill and Chance]

Does John Edwards have a good seat to run in here?

They compromised on a much milder gerrymander that brings his seat to Trump +7 in 2016 and Trump +0.6 in 2020. He probably couldn't hold on in this political environment but could still in 2023.

In total, how many Biden districts in the House and how many in the Senate, under these lines?

Senate Map

Pres 2016: 23D-17R
Gov 2017: 24D-16R
Sen 2018: 26D-14R
Pres 2020: 24D-16R

House Map

Pres 2016: 52D-48R
Gov 2017: 56D-44R
Sen 2018: 68D-32R
Pres 2020: 60D-40R

Notably, because of reapportionment and undoing some of the State House 2011 Gerry in places like Charlottesville and Fredericksburg, the GOP would need to win in 2023 by even more than in 2021 to hold the state house.

The HoD looks next to impossible for R's to hold, but the Senate probably got a bit easier for R's to pick up.  D's likely have to flip a narrow Clinton->Biden->Youngkin outer NOVA R seat to hold the Senate. 

[Skill and Chance]

Does John Edwards have a good seat to run in here?

They compromised on a much milder gerrymander that brings his seat to Trump +7 in 2016 and Trump +0.6 in 2020. He probably couldn't hold on in this political environment but could still in 2023.

In total, how many Biden districts in the House and how many in the Senate, under these lines?

Senate Map

Pres 2016: 23D-17R
Gov 2017: 24D-16R
Sen 2018: 26D-14R
Pres 2020: 24D-16R

House Map

Pres 2016: 52D-48R
Gov 2017: 56D-44R
Sen 2018: 68D-32R
Pres 2020: 60D-40R

Notably, because of reapportionment and undoing some of the State House 2011 Gerry in places like Charlottesville and Fredericksburg, the GOP would need to win in 2023 by even more than in 2021 to hold the state house.

D's have probable HoD pickups in VA Beach, Albemarle, Fredericksburg, and Loudoun.

The 2 competitive outer Richmond State Senate seats are probably just R enough to hold, and the SWVA Dem gets a Trump seat, so they need to pick up an extra NOVA seat to hold the chamber.

EDIT: The new version of the Petersburg seat that flipped this year is not obviously better for Dems.  They still have enough opportunities to flip the chamber though. 

[Mr.Phips]

Does John Edwards have a good seat to run in here?

They compromised on a much milder gerrymander that brings his seat to Trump +7 in 2016 and Trump +0.6 in 2020. He probably couldn't hold on in this political environment but could still in 2023.

In total, how many Biden districts in the House and how many in the Senate, under these lines?

Senate Map

Pres 2016: 23D-17R
Gov 2017: 24D-16R
Sen 2018: 26D-14R
Pres 2020: 24D-16R

House Map

Pres 2016: 52D-48R
Gov 2017: 56D-44R
Sen 2018: 68D-32R
Pres 2020: 60D-40R

Notably, because of reapportionment and undoing some of the State House 2011 Gerry in places like Charlottesville and Fredericksburg, the GOP would need to win in 2023 by even more than in 2021 to hold the state house.

The HoD looks next to impossible for R's to hold, but the Senate probably got a bit easier for R's to pick up.  D's likely have to flip a narrow Clinton->Biden->Youngkin outer NOVA R seat to hold the Senate. 

That shouldnt be that difficult as long as Biden is more popular in November 2023 than in November 2021.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does John Edwards have a good seat to run in here?

They compromised on a much milder gerrymander that brings his seat to Trump +7 in 2016 and Trump +0.6 in 2020. He probably couldn't hold on in this political environment but could still in 2023.

In total, how many Biden districts in the House and how many in the Senate, under these lines?

Senate Map

Pres 2016: 23D-17R
Gov 2017: 24D-16R
Sen 2018: 26D-14R
Pres 2020: 24D-16R

House Map

Pres 2016: 52D-48R
Gov 2017: 56D-44R
Sen 2018: 68D-32R
Pres 2020: 60D-40R

Notably, because of reapportionment and undoing some of the State House 2011 Gerry in places like Charlottesville and Fredericksburg, the GOP would need to win in 2023 by even more than in 2021 to hold the state house.

The HoD looks next to impossible for R's to hold, but the Senate probably got a bit easier for R's to pick up.  D's likely have to flip a narrow Clinton->Biden->Youngkin outer NOVA R seat to hold the Senate. 

Well, that is to be expected when you un-gerry a pair of state legislative maps, one done for each party.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does John Edwards have a good seat to run in here?

They compromised on a much milder gerrymander that brings his seat to Trump +7 in 2016 and Trump +0.6 in 2020. He probably couldn't hold on in this political environment but could still in 2023.

In total, how many Biden districts in the House and how many in the Senate, under these lines?

Senate Map

Pres 2016: 23D-17R
Gov 2017: 24D-16R
Sen 2018: 26D-14R
Pres 2020: 24D-16R

House Map

Pres 2016: 52D-48R
Gov 2017: 56D-44R
Sen 2018: 68D-32R
Pres 2020: 60D-40R

Notably, because of reapportionment and undoing some of the State House 2011 Gerry in places like Charlottesville and Fredericksburg, the GOP would need to win in 2023 by even more than in 2021 to hold the state house.

D's have probable HoD pickups in VA Beach, Petersburg area , Albemarle, Fredericksburg area, and Loudoun.

The 2 competitive outer Richmond State Senate seats are probably just R enough to hold, and the SWVA Dem gets a Trump seat, so they need to pick up an extra NOVA seat to hold the chamber.

What do you suspect is the path of least resistance to R control of the state legislature, under these lines?

[Oryxslayer]

I don't know if Trende will allow it but Albemarle/CVille is gonna lobby extremely hard to be united and they'll know what they're doing (lib professors - see Ann Arbor).  

Yeah, if there is one group who is going to raise a fuss it's going to be the Cville group...especially since the cut seems a bit arbitrary atm. Expect them to point out how Adding in all of Albemarle and dropping Spotsylvania produces a seat only 1K shot of the ideal. And if it is done...well Dems have to feel happy about those lines. As it is now the Loudoun seat is just back were it was politically in 2018, these changes would put it closer to the current seat in 2020.