2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[LimoLiberal]

Here's my attempt at a map the commission might pass. I based it partially off the current map with some incumbent protection. This is a 5-4-2 map with the two competitive districts improved for Luria and Spanberger. I'm fairly new to this so all feedback is welcome.

I know the numbering is off.



VA-01: Trump 65-31, Gillespie 64-35, Safe R (Morgan Griffith)
VA-02: Trump 62-34, Gillespie 64-36, Safe R (Bob Good)
VA-03: Trump 61-33, Gillespie 62-37, Safe R (Ben Cline)
VA-04: Clinton 62-34, Northam 64-35, Safe D and 45% BVAP (Don McEachin)
VA-05 (yellow): Clinton 48-45, Northam 53-46, Lean D but Likely D for Spanberger (Abigail Spanberger)
VA-06: Clinton 60-33, Northam 65-34, Safe D (Jennifer Wexton)
VA-07 (brown): Clinton 73-20, Northam 76-23, Safe D (Don Beyer)
VA-08: Clinton 59-35, Northam 62-37, Safe D (Gerry Connolly)
VA-09: Trump 52-42, Gillespie 53-46, Likely R (Rob Wittman) <- Kaine actually won this district by a point
VA-10: Clinton 59-36, Northam 64-34, Safe D and 42% BVAP (Bobby Scott)
VA-11: Trump 47-47, Northam 53-46, Tossup but Lean D for Luria (Elaine Luria)

[LimoLiberal]

The redistricting amendment isn't as secure as it seems. The new Wason Center poll had it leading 48-28 but Republicans were opposed to it by a 10 point margin. That lead may seem insurmountable but get this: the Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and other local democratic committees are urging a "no" vote and the Democratic sample ballots will reflect that. There will undoubtedly be Democrats that hear about the redistricting amendment in vague terms and support it prior to the election but the check next to the "no" on the sample ballot will flip their vote. This all creates the opportunity for an unwieldy coalition of hardcore Virginia Republicans and NoVA Democrats to defeat the amendment.

[LimoLiberal]

Slightly different take.   I'm a big fan of the Shenandoah Valley district btw.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c7efb37e-9149-41af-8cbb-1cef67d1af22

Is this the kind of map a redistricting commission would draw?  

I really don't think the commission will give up on Spanberger that easily.

That 7 would be interesting though. Webb would probably run again and win, the six counties between Albemarle and Loudoun/PWC were only like Trump +25,000.

[LimoLiberal]

Back to two State Senate maps, seems like the "compromise" map is dead.

The new D plan is exactly the same as the compromise except that it retains the Roanoke to Blacksburg gerrymander for incumbent John Edwards.

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-b4/

The new R plan is a pretty serious gerrymander. It packs all the most Democratic areas of Prince William County in one seat to create a more competitive outer district that voted for Hillary by 1. There's a Richmond to Petersburg pack to make the Southside district less competitive. The Eastern Shore to Virginia Beach seat goes from Trump +1 to Trump +7

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-a4/

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/CommissionVa/status/1448294804975202305

[LimoLiberal]

The "7 competitive districts" plan, lol

https://www.virginiaredistricting.org/legdistricting/comments/plan/328/1

Based NC border to Roanoke to Cville to suburban Henrico district

[LimoLiberal]

The Loudoun-Charlottesville NoVA to UVA commute seat is pretty funny.

[LimoLiberal]

If that's the final Senate map it would be difficult to dislodge the Democratic majority. I believe the 20th seat would be Clinton +7/Biden +17 SD-16 in Henrico County.

[LimoLiberal]

If that's the final Senate map it would be difficult to dislodge the Democratic majority. I believe the 20th seat would be Clinton +7/Biden +17 SD-16 in Henrico County.

Do you mean 20th R seat?  D's need 21 now or Sears breaks ties. 

I meant the 20th D seat, oops.

The 21st D seat would be Clinton +6/Biden +13 SD-31 in outer Loudoun and the northern half of Fauquier. Still pretty tough.

[LimoLiberal]

I don't know if Trende will allow it but Albemarle/CVille is gonna lobby extremely hard to be united and they'll know what they're doing (lib professors - see Ann Arbor).  

[LimoLiberal]

Does John Edwards have a good seat to run in here?

They compromised on a much milder gerrymander that brings his seat to Trump +7 in 2016 and Trump +0.6 in 2020. He probably couldn't hold on in this political environment but could still in 2023.

[LimoLiberal]

Does John Edwards have a good seat to run in here?

They compromised on a much milder gerrymander that brings his seat to Trump +7 in 2016 and Trump +0.6 in 2020. He probably couldn't hold on in this political environment but could still in 2023.

In total, how many Biden districts in the House and how many in the Senate, under these lines?

Senate Map

Pres 2016: 23D-17R
Gov 2017: 24D-16R
Sen 2018: 26D-14R
Pres 2020: 24D-16R

House Map

Pres 2016: 52D-48R
Gov 2017: 56D-44R
Sen 2018: 68D-32R
Pres 2020: 60D-40R

Notably, because of reapportionment and undoing some of the State House 2011 Gerry in places like Charlottesville and Fredericksburg, the GOP would need to win in 2023 by even more than in 2021 to hold the state house.

The HoD looks next to impossible for R's to hold, but the Senate probably got a bit easier for R's to pick up.  D's likely have to flip a narrow Clinton->Biden->Youngkin outer NOVA R seat to hold the Senate.  

I'm not sure that's true. Neutral year:

Ds currently have 21 seats.

D-1 in Roanoke/Blacksburg
D+1 in Richmond (Ds currently have 3, will have 4 assuming they can win the eastern Henrico seat, which did not vote for Youngkin)
D-1/+0/+1 in Hampton roads (Ds currently have 5, there are 4 solid D seats and a Clinton +3 seat in Suffolk and a Clinton +5 seat in Newport News both of which have D incumbents, so this could be anywhere from D-1 to D+1)
D+0/1 in NoVA (Ds currently have 11 seats, the new map has 11 solid D seats with the most marginal a Clinton +11 eastern PWC district, plus the aforementioned Clinton +6 outer Loudoun district as the 12th NoVA seat)

Democrats just need to win one of the marginal Hampton Roads seats and they don't even need the outer Loudoun seat.