2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1461758918728769537

lol

Trende is a never Trumper type, I wouldn't bet on him being too kind toward Amanda Chase in VA-7.

IIRC

1. He's really not into maps that split counties/municipalities more than absolutely necessary.
2. He's ideologically somewhere between Youngkin and Romney, definitely not a Trumpist.
3. He would likely prefer to draw more districts winnable for traditionalist outer suburbs R's vs. rural populists.

#1 would help D's significantly in the HoD because their college towns downstate are all currently cracked and help R's significantly in the State Senate, because there's a bunch of Fairfax to Loudoun/PWC/Stafford crossings in NOVA on the current map and D's got nowhere in outer NOVA narrow Biden seats in 2021.  Also the SWVA Dem seat is drawn to connect as many college towns as possible.  They are too small to control a district in the upper chamber, so if it becomes a compact Roanoke seat, it becomes Likely R.  

On the congressional level, he could be very tempted to do the all-Fairfax VA-11+all-PWC safe Dem seat+Loudoun to the mountains Lean R narrow Biden+yuge Youngkin seat.  Similarly, there could be a way to do a Trump+3/Youngkin +15 version of VA-07?

That’s three safe Dem seats in NOVA right?  Fairfax, PWC, Arlington, and Alexandria have enough population for 2.5 districts.

The core Blue NOVA counties and their independent cities have the population for about 3.25 CDs. If this was a Dem map then that's enough population to radiate 4 districts out of NOVA.

The version the GOP put forward previous basically had the most GOP friendly precincts containing that surplus of almost-200K from PWC and Loudon - mainly Loudon - and then throwing them in a seat with most of the counties north of Charlottesville. The remaining core got 3 safe blue seats.

Some variation on this with different types of precincts getting yanked out of NOVA to produce different outcomes in their new districts seems to be the expected outcome. However there is an alternative where you drop Loudoun from the core group and add Stafford, Fredericksburg, and a tiny bit more. The core three would still be safe D - some of the most Dem parts of NOVA are adjacent to Stafford - but the shift of Loudoun out of the metro allows you to do different things in the adjacent metros. This is essentially the outcome suggested in the above post. What he is suggesting is that because Trende is one of those "Loudoun nostalgic" GOP'ers he might be tempted to throw it in a seat winnable by the GOP, and Grofman might agree given such a seat would very quickly become another VA-10.

[Torie]

Below is my wild guess as to what the twin Masters will draw.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f32e4d43-c8f0-4dea-afe2-7e7f4691050a

And here is a less change version from the current map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7d034f6e-447b-47f0-8ec0-c6e07ce19485

[Frodo]

Below is my wild guess as to what the twin Masters will draw.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f32e4d43-c8f0-4dea-afe2-7e7f4691050a

You really don't care about applying the correct congressional district numbers, do you? 

[Torie]

Below is my wild guess as to what the twin Masters will draw.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f32e4d43-c8f0-4dea-afe2-7e7f4691050a

You really don't care about applying the correct congressional district numbers, do you?  

No I didn't*.  You can correct that for me if you like. Thanks in advance.

*Other than of course the Fighting Ninth of fame and legend.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone have any idea what the post-2020 census HoD map will look like?

[Minnesota Mike]

VA Maps from the Special Masters.

https://www.vacourts.gov/courts/scv/districting/maps_special_masters.pdf

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1461758918728769537

lol

Trende is a never Trumper type, I wouldn't bet on him being too kind toward Amanda Chase in VA-7.

IIRC

1. He's really not into maps that split counties/municipalities more than absolutely necessary.
2. He's ideologically somewhere between Youngkin and Romney, definitely not a Trumpist.
3. He would likely prefer to draw more districts winnable for traditionalist outer suburbs R's vs. rural populists.

#1 would help D's significantly in the HoD because their college towns downstate are all currently cracked and help R's significantly in the State Senate, because there's a bunch of Fairfax to Loudoun/PWC/Stafford crossings in NOVA on the current map and D's got nowhere in outer NOVA narrow Biden seats in 2021.  Also the SWVA Dem seat is drawn to connect as many college towns as possible.  They are too small to control a district in the upper chamber, so if it becomes a compact Roanoke seat, it becomes Likely R.  

On the congressional level, he could be very tempted to do the all-Fairfax VA-11+all-PWC safe Dem seat+Loudoun to the mountains Lean R narrow Biden+yuge Youngkin seat.  Similarly, there could be a way to do a Trump+3/Youngkin +15 version of VA-07?

That’s three safe Dem seats in NOVA right?  Fairfax, PWC, Arlington, and Alexandria have enough population for 2.5 districts.

The core Blue NOVA counties and their independent cities have the population for about 3.25 CDs. If this was a Dem map then that's enough population to radiate 4 districts out of NOVA.

The version the GOP put forward previous basically had the most GOP friendly precincts containing that surplus of almost-200K from PWC and Loudon - mainly Loudon - and then throwing them in a seat with most of the counties north of Charlottesville. The remaining core got 3 safe blue seats.
Some variation on this with different types of precincts getting yanked out of NOVA to produce different outcomes in their new districts seems to be the expected outcome. However there is an alternative where you drop Loudoun from the core group and add Stafford, Fredericksburg, and a tiny bit more. The core three would still be safe D - some of the most Dem parts of NOVA are adjacent to Stafford - but the shift of Loudoun out of the metro allows you to do different things in the adjacent metros. This is essentially the outcome suggested in the above post. What he is suggesting is that because Trende is one of those "Loudoun nostalgic" GOP'ers he might be tempted to throw it in a seat winnable by the GOP, and Grofman might agree given such a seat would very quickly become another VA-10.

Lol it happened.

[Stuart98]

I have the shapefile, uploading it into DRA now.

[It’s so Joever]

What is the partisanship of 2?

[lfromnj]

What is the partisanship of 2?

Biden +1.5

I am just happy these people realized the much better way to make va02/va03/va04 rather than the legislators believing VRA district means it can't be touched at all.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1461758918728769537

lol

Trende is a never Trumper type, I wouldn't bet on him being too kind toward Amanda Chase in VA-7.

IIRC

1. He's really not into maps that split counties/municipalities more than absolutely necessary.
2. He's ideologically somewhere between Youngkin and Romney, definitely not a Trumpist.
3. He would likely prefer to draw more districts winnable for traditionalist outer suburbs R's vs. rural populists.

#1 would help D's significantly in the HoD because their college towns downstate are all currently cracked and help R's significantly in the State Senate, because there's a bunch of Fairfax to Loudoun/PWC/Stafford crossings in NOVA on the current map and D's got nowhere in outer NOVA narrow Biden seats in 2021.  Also the SWVA Dem seat is drawn to connect as many college towns as possible.  They are too small to control a district in the upper chamber, so if it becomes a compact Roanoke seat, it becomes Likely R. 

On the congressional level, he could be very tempted to do the all-Fairfax VA-11+all-PWC safe Dem seat+Loudoun to the mountains Lean R narrow Biden+yuge Youngkin seat.  Similarly, there could be a way to do a Trump+3/Youngkin +15 version of VA-07?

That’s three safe Dem seats in NOVA right?  Fairfax, PWC, Arlington, and Alexandria have enough population for 2.5 districts.

The core Blue NOVA counties and their independent cities have the population for about 3.25 CDs. If this was a Dem map then that's enough population to radiate 4 districts out of NOVA.

The version the GOP put forward previous basically had the most GOP friendly precincts containing that surplus of almost-200K from PWC and Loudon - mainly Loudon - and then throwing them in a seat with most of the counties north of Charlottesville. The remaining core got 3 safe blue seats.
Some variation on this with different types of precincts getting yanked out of NOVA to produce different outcomes in their new districts seems to be the expected outcome. However there is an alternative where you drop Loudoun from the core group and add Stafford, Fredericksburg, and a tiny bit more. The core three would still be safe D - some of the most Dem parts of NOVA are adjacent to Stafford - but the shift of Loudoun out of the metro allows you to do different things in the adjacent metros. This is essentially the outcome suggested in the above post. What he is suggesting is that because Trende is one of those "Loudoun nostalgic" GOP'ers he might be tempted to throw it in a seat winnable by the GOP, and Grofman might agree given such a seat would very quickly become another VA-10.

Lol it happened.

Called it!

I think this version with the Albemarle and Spotsylvania split falls somewhere between the Loudoun-Shenandoah scenario (almost Likely R downballot until late in the decade) and the Loudoun-Charlottesville scenario (Tilt D from day 1). 

Overall, very impressed.  This looks like a fair and well thought-out map that doesn't unduly defer to incumbent interests or favor either party explicitly. 

Looks like VA-02 gets a bit more R by pulling out of the Peninsula and going south?  Also, I wonder if Spanberger could hope to compete in that VA-05?

[Stuart98]

DRA link for the congressional map.

Working on uploading the senate and HoD maps.

6-5 by Pres 2016, 7-4 by Gov 2017, Sen 2018, and Pres 2020.

[lfromnj]

So partisan effect is VA01 is moved to Richmond suburbs instead of NOVA suburbs and becomes 8 points more R while VA07 is the opposite. VA02 becomes 3 points more R.

[LimoLiberal]

The Loudoun-Charlottesville NoVA to UVA commute seat is pretty funny.

[Skill and Chance]

DRA link for the congressional map.

Working on uploading the senate and HoD maps.

6-5 by Pres 2016, 7-4 by Gov 2017, Sen 2018, and Pres 2020.

So Clinton still won VA-02?

[GALeftist]

6-1-4 seems reasonable for a state like Virginia, and it could have gone much worse. Could have gone much better, too, if Dems hadn't shot themselves in the foot on redistricting.

[lfromnj]

DRA link for the congressional map.

Working on uploading the senate and HoD maps.

6-5 by Pres 2016, 7-4 by Gov 2017, Sen 2018, and Pres 2020.

So Clinton still won VA-02?

No she won the Loudoun seat by 1.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

DRA link for the congressional map.

Working on uploading the senate and HoD maps.

6-5 by Pres 2016, 7-4 by Gov 2017, Sen 2018, and Pres 2020.

Honestly? Really like it. Democrats could stand to have another safe safe seat, but it’s a fairly decent map

[If my soul was made of stone]

This is a profoundly dumb map, but I can't say I'm complaining about drawing out Spanberger while adding another Dem seat to compensate. Luria's new seat is a nightmare that'll probably throw her out, but I don't have much love lost for that paragon of the Right-Wing Military Mom Angry Trump Called Her Son A Loser demographic. My stepbrother and his wife, who live in her district, loathe her too.

[Skill and Chance]

The HoD map has compact outer Albemarle and Fredericksburg seats that should be at least Lean D, a single clearly Dem black-opportunity seat around Petersburg, and an extra clearly Dem seat in Loudoun.  Unless I am missing something that makes an incumbent Dem precarious in RIC/Hampton Roads, the chamber should clearly flip back at the next election. 

[Stuart98]

Senate Map

Pres 2016: 23D-17R
Gov 2017: 24D-16R
Sen 2018: 26D-14R
Pres 2020: 24D-16R

House Map

Pres 2016: 52D-48R
Gov 2017: 56D-44R
Sen 2018: 68D-32R
Pres 2020: 60D-40R

[Gass3268]

Lol, they nested the HoD districts into the Senate districts even though there is no requirement.

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1468698441572397068?s=20

[Skill and Chance]

DRA link for the congressional map.

Working on uploading the senate and HoD maps.

6-5 by Pres 2016, 7-4 by Gov 2017, Sen 2018, and Pres 2020.

So Clinton still won VA-02?

No she won the Loudoun seat by 1.

OK, wow, that one's clearly going Dem in the next election that isn't a GOP wave then, but the flip side Luria and Spanberger both likely lose next year.  

[Skill and Chance]

Lol, they nested the HoD districts into the Senate districts even though there is no requirement.

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1468698441572397068?s=20

Trende at his best!

[Pollster]

Spanberger and Wittman are double-bunked in VA-01 here, the seat went from Trump +16 to Trump +10, so probably picks Wittman in 2022 but Spanberger could certainly be back later in the decade.