2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Frodo]

Ok so the commission includes both legislators and citizens,however if the legislators manage to exert more influence and get a "compromise" bipartisan gerrymander then we could get something like this. The GOP may not be totally willing to give up a VA beach district for a locked in 7-4 so lets make a 6-1-4.



Black circles = incumbent homes
VA 1: Robb Wittman won't be the happiest here as I did take a bit of the tidewater away(will explain later) and because of NOVA's growth the district moves a bit left to where Kaine won it by 2.5 points in 2018 I could make it a bit uglier I guess to shore him up. I think I could shore up Wittman by switching some precincts between him and Connolly but still NOVA growth basically forced Wittman into here.
Lets go with Likely R here.

So pushed VA 2nd to the left with some precinct shifts etc but its mostly the same, also kept the entire Historic Triangle together so this makes VA 2nd quite a bit whiter but without affecting its partisanship. Trump +1, Tossup.

VA 3rd- Black Hampton Roads district Safe D and kept Newport News, moves 2 points right but still Clinton +25.

VA 4- ok still keeps a similar black population but its also a bit more red at only Clinton +16, so blacks should dominate the primary more and Mceachin shouldn't have too much of a problem with this as its still Safe D. Other problem is not sure if Donald Mcceachin's home is in the district as I split Richmond could probably take it back if neccesary but he probably doesn't want white liberals in Richmond anyway.


VA 5.This along with VA 6,7 were what caused the rotation in the map. Riggleman lives very close to Cline's hometown but Spanberger needs Charlottesville to be shored up. So I removed the northern part of Rigglemans district which went to Wittman and Charlottesville to Spanberger. This is now 100% Safe R with Stewart winning it by 16 points. Rigglemans at a moderate risk of a primary here to a Richmond Republican but he probably doesn't have too many allies in the legislature but he should still be relatively solid.

VA 6- again the Shenandoah and moved North a bit into parts of VA 10th, Safe R  sink
 +31 Clinton

VA 7th- Spanberger needs Charlottesville to be truly safe in a general. Also took in some white lib precints in Richmond so its now Clinton +10, Safe D but could move to Likely D if its an R wave and Spanberger gets primaried by a Charlottesville loon along with the white libs in Richmond.

VA 8th- Titanium D sink Fairfax and Arlington, Beyers district is the same

VA 9th- Titanium R SW VA sink,ok actually moved like 10 points left because I wanted to keep Roanake whole which is a good COI anyway and Griffith lives there so he's happy. Stewart didn't even break 60% here suprisingly but still as said before Titanium R, its Trump +35.

VA 10th-Wexton is now 100% Safe in a general as she gets minorities in PWC, their split coalition makes it hard for them to primary Wexton anyway, Titanium D.

VA 11th- Safe D outer Fairfax, moves a bit right but unlike 10 years ago its impossible for any Republican to get elected in this area. Gerry should be happy.

Opinions?

I'm happy with this, especially given the fact these congressional districts are mostly contiguous.  Just one minor detail -for VA 6, I presume you meant +31 Trump?

[Frodo]

Slightly different take.   I'm a big fan of the Shenandoah Valley district btw.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c7efb37e-9149-41af-8cbb-1cef67d1af22

Now that is a really good map.  Hopefully that is the map that my state will adopt for the rest of the decade....

[Frodo]

The redistricting amendment isn't as secure as it seems. The new Wason Center poll had it leading 48-28 but Republicans were opposed to it by a 10 point margin. That lead may seem insurmountable but get this: the Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and other local democratic committees are urging a "no" vote and the Democratic sample ballots will reflect that. There will undoubtedly be Democrats that hear about the redistricting amendment in vague terms and support it prior to the election but the check next to the "no" on the sample ballot will flip their vote. This all creates the opportunity for an unwieldy coalition of hardcore Virginia Republicans and NoVA Democrats to defeat the amendment.

This post did not age well. 

[Frodo]

Slightly different take.   I'm a big fan of the Shenandoah Valley district btw.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c7efb37e-9149-41af-8cbb-1cef67d1af22

Is this the kind of map a redistricting commission would draw? 

[Frodo]

After reading this I'm fairly convinced the commission was designed from the beginning to deadlock and send the map drawing the State Supreme Court.

tbh, I assumed that from the start. Particularly in a state where Republicans just lost control over redistricting, creating a commission where they could deadlock the process and having maps be drawn by a court whose members they appointed seemed like a textbook case of gaming the system. Even in a situation without the VASC, they probably would never reach an agreement anyway. There's just way too many conflicts of interest and self-interest at play.

I voted against it, let the record show. 

[Frodo]

Do we know how the 12-4 vote played out in regards to which 4 jumped ship to the other side?

Here are the ones who voted against drawing maps from scratch-

https://mobile.twitter.com/1VA2021/status/1429861176066850829
Believe it or not, a Democrat voted against it: Sen. George Barker of Alexandria. And predictably, his Senate district looks like this-

Reminder a certain senator from SW VA really would not like the Roanake metro being united.

The current state senate map is a D leaning map while the house map is mostly useless for Rs.

I thought the current state Senate map was an R gerry?

Democrats won the chamber in 2007 (anti-Iraq War backlash, mainly), so by the time of the last redistricting cycle, the General Assembly was split, with Republicans controlling the House of Delegates, and Democrats (narrowly) controlling the state Senate.  I have no doubt that had Republicans retained control of that chamber, they would have gerrymandered out nearly every rural Democrat (like they did in the House).  How big a majority they would have had we can only speculate.

[Frodo]

Below is my wild guess as to what the twin Masters will draw.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f32e4d43-c8f0-4dea-afe2-7e7f4691050a

You really don't care about applying the correct congressional district numbers, do you? 

[Frodo]

Ummm, the new and finalized lines look very different from what was initially proposed.

https://twitter.com/BPaves/status/1475942553342070792?s=20

As a Virginia voter and a Democrat, those maps (and I am not just talking about the new lines for the congressional districts) look perfectly fine to me.  And actually, they are an improvement over what we have now.