2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Landslide Lyndon]

Jaime Harrison raked in $7M+ and Amy McGrath raked in $12M+

Am I the only one not mad about this? First of all, I'm not saying they have a "lean" chance of winning, but hey, that's a LOT of cash, so you never know what could happen. Meanwhile, it would help the Democrats down ballot in both states, so it's worth it for that alone.

Yeah, it's stupid to waste all these money in unwinnable races. But then again Republicans also donate a boatload of money to the sacrificial lamb candidates that run against AOC, Pelosi, and Omar.

[wbrocks67]

Jaime Harrison raked in $7M+ and Amy McGrath raked in $12M+

Am I the only one not mad about this? First of all, I'm not saying they have a "lean" chance of winning, but hey, that's a LOT of cash, so you never know what could happen. Meanwhile, it would help the Democrats down ballot in both states, so it's worth it for that alone.

Yeah, it's stupid to waste all these money in unwinnable races. But then again Republicans also donate a boatload of money to the sacrificial lamb candidates that run against AOC, Pelosi, and Omar.

People assume it's wasting money though, or that small dollar donors are *only* donating to these races, when that's likely not the case.

Also, McGrath and Harrison have way more of a chance to win than someone running against AOC or Pelosi.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

James Harrison will win, but Gross has a much better chance than McGrath

[morgieb]

Jaime Harrison raked in $7M+ and Amy McGrath raked in $12M+

Am I the only one not mad about this? First of all, I'm not saying they have a "lean" chance of winning, but hey, that's a LOT of cash, so you never know what could happen. Meanwhile, it would help the Democrats down ballot in both states, so it's worth it for that alone.

I remember similar bitching about donating to Beto. Look what happened there.

Fortunately though Dems do not have a shortage of small donors.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1250618530669760513

[wbrocks67]

Jaime Harrison raked in $7M+ and Amy McGrath raked in $12M+

Am I the only one not mad about this? First of all, I'm not saying they have a "lean" chance of winning, but hey, that's a LOT of cash, so you never know what could happen. Meanwhile, it would help the Democrats down ballot in both states, so it's worth it for that alone.

I remember similar bitching about donating to Beto. Look what happened there.

Fortunately though Dems do not have a shortage of small donors.

Exactly. Let people donate to other races, b/c likelihood is the people donating to Amy and Jamie are probably donating to others as well.

McConnell and Graham are not infallible, especially with that much $$$ being directed against them. It's a longshot, but hey, why not see what happens and go all out?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Firehouse Strategies/Optimus, an R-leaning pollster, has the GCB at D+12 among both all adults and RV.

https://github.com/optimus-forecasting-and-polling/Firehouse-0ptimus-Coronavirus-Tracking/blob/master/April-16-2020/Toplines_2020-04-14.pdf

[ꙮ]

NY-22 Update:

Despite receiving the President’s endorsement on Twitter, Claudia Tenney was still outraised by Anthony Brindisi this quarter. There has been little campaigning to this point anecdotally, but I was expecting more from the Tenney camp.

Fundraising Totals:
Anthony Brindisi (D) - $558,607 raised, ~$2,100,000 on hand.
Claudia Tenney (R)  -  $234,214 raised,    ~$408,000 on hand.
George Phillips (R)  -   $28,361 raised,          $43,453 on hand.

[Frenchrepublican]

NY-22 Update:

Despite receiving the President’s endorsement on Twitter, Claudia Tenney was still outraised by Anthony Brindisi this quarter. There has been little campaigning to this point anecdotally, but I was expecting more from the Tenney camp.

Fundraising Totals:
Anthony Brindisi (D) - $558,607 raised, ~$2,100,000 on hand.
Claudia Tenney (R)  -  $234,214 raised,    ~$408,000 on hand.
George Phillips (R)  -   $28,361 raised,          $43,453 on hand.

We all know that if Tenney makes a successful comeback it will be thanks to Trump coatails, not because she is a strong candidate.

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1248240443730595840
It seems that VA10th won't be a battleground district anymore

Surprised they didn't buy any ads in Indianapolis. 

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

NY-22 Update:

Despite receiving the President’s endorsement on Twitter, Claudia Tenney was still outraised by Anthony Brindisi this quarter. There has been little campaigning to this point anecdotally, but I was expecting more from the Tenney camp.

Fundraising Totals:
Anthony Brindisi (D) - $558,607 raised, ~$2,100,000 on hand.
Claudia Tenney (R)  -  $234,214 raised,    ~$408,000 on hand.
George Phillips (R)  -   $28,361 raised,          $43,453 on hand.

We all know that if Tenney makes a successful comeback it will be thanks to Trump coatails, not because she is a strong candidate.

Republicans made a mistake not coalescing around the Broome County DA

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1248240443730595840
It seems that VA10th won't be a battleground district anymore

Surprised they didn't buy any ads in Indianapolis. 

6.5 million in Philly seems crazy, but I guess the GOP wants to be aggressive with NJ-03, NJ-2 and PA-1

[wbrocks67]

$3 million against Fletcher also seems ridiculous

[Virginiá]

$3 million against Fletcher also seems ridiculous

fwiw, it's Super PAC money (so higher rates) in an expensive media market.

[wbrocks67]

$3 million against Fletcher also seems ridiculous

fwiw, it's Super PAC money (so higher rates) in an expensive media market.

The fact that Rs think they can win that district tho....

[Brittain33]

$3 million against Fletcher also seems ridiculous

fwiw, it's Super PAC money (so higher rates) in an expensive media market.

The fact that Rs think they can win that district tho....

Could this be redirected for TX-22 if they decide they need to?

[Frenchrepublican]

NY-22 Update:

Despite receiving the President’s endorsement on Twitter, Claudia Tenney was still outraised by Anthony Brindisi this quarter. There has been little campaigning to this point anecdotally, but I was expecting more from the Tenney camp.

Fundraising Totals:
Anthony Brindisi (D) - $558,607 raised, ~$2,100,000 on hand.
Claudia Tenney (R)  -  $234,214 raised,    ~$408,000 on hand.
George Phillips (R)  -   $28,361 raised,          $43,453 on hand.

We all know that if Tenney makes a successful comeback it will be thanks to Trump coatails, not because she is a strong candidate.

Republicans made a mistake not coalescing around the Broome County DA

That's also my belief

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1248240443730595840
It seems that VA10th won't be a battleground district anymore

Surprised they didn't buy any ads in Indianapolis. 

Why Indianapolis ?

IN-5 is not really competitive and if republicans are on the verge of losing a such district they have a lot of more pressing problems.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

A Republican internal for GA-06 from March has Handel +2

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1251274186389180417?s=20

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1248240443730595840
It seems that VA10th won't be a battleground district anymore

Surprised they didn't buy any ads in Indianapolis. 

Why Indianapolis ?

IN-5 is not really competitive and if republicans are on the verge of losing a such district they have a lot of more pressing problems.

I think IN-05 isn't really a battleground race so much as it's a sleeper race.  Kinda like Kendra Horn in 2018 or Joe Walsh in 2010.

[wbrocks67]

The Civiqs tracker for the GCB is back up for 2020. It has D+8 right now (51-43)

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2020?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why Dems are gonna keep their grip on House and add IA-4 and MO-2 and net more than 50 seats in Senate

[Pollster]

Steve Watkins had a very poor fundraising quarter.

His likely Dem opponent outraised him, and his primary challenger has more COH.

[tagimaucia]

The Civiqs tracker for the GCB is back up for 2020. It has D+8 right now (51-43)

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2020?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Civiqs’ final call for 2018 was D+7 and their tracker was quite stable. That’s under the actual D+8.6 result, but pretty much “correct” if you account for how many districts had no Republican challengers. I give this particular tracker a lot of creedence.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Steve Watkins had a very poor fundraising quarter.

His likely Dem opponent outraised him, and his primary challenger has more COH.

Why is LaTurner's fundraising so pathetic? The guy was supposed to be a senate contender.