NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Calthrina950]

What is everyone's final prediction for the margin here.

I don't think it will be close to single digits. Hochul +14 or +15 seems a bare minimum. So she wins a full term 57.5-42.5%.

I'd be shocked if Hochul wins by double digits at this point. If she does, then that means NY-GOV was fool's gold for the Republicans.

[Sir Mohamed]

What is everyone's final prediction for the margin here.

I don't think it will be close to single digits. Hochul +14 or +15 seems a bare minimum. So she wins a full term 57.5-42.5%.

I'd be shocked if Hochul wins by double digits at this point. If she does, then that means NY-GOV was fool's gold for the Republicans.

We'll see, it's still NY after all, and even in R-waves like 2010 and 2014, Cuomo won pretty easily.

[Calthrina950]

What is everyone's final prediction for the margin here.

I don't think it will be close to single digits. Hochul +14 or +15 seems a bare minimum. So she wins a full term 57.5-42.5%.

I'd be shocked if Hochul wins by double digits at this point. If she does, then that means NY-GOV was fool's gold for the Republicans.

We'll see, it's still NY after all, and even in R-waves like 2010 and 2014, Cuomo won pretty easily.

True, but Hochul is much less popular than Cuomo, New York has been engulfed by a renewed crime wave over the past few years, and Cuomo had much more appeal in the NYC metropolitan area than she does. Mind you, I still expect her to win tomorrow, but if it's by a double-digit margin, that would show New York is completely unwinnable for Republicans.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I'd be shocked if Hochul wins by double digits at this point. If she does, then that means NY-GOV was fool's gold for the Republicans.

True, but Hochul is much less popular than Cuomo, New York has been engulfed by a renewed crime wave over the past few years, and Cuomo had much more appeal in the NYC metropolitan area than she does. Mind you, I still expect her to win tomorrow, but if it's by a double-digit margin, that would show New York is completely unwinnable for Republicans.

Correct!

[wbrocks67]

What is everyone's final prediction for the margin here.

I don't think it will be close to single digits. Hochul +14 or +15 seems a bare minimum. So she wins a full term 57.5-42.5%.

I'd be shocked if Hochul wins by double digits at this point. If she does, then that means NY-GOV was fool's gold for the Republicans.

We'll see, it's still NY after all, and even in R-waves like 2010 and 2014, Cuomo won pretty easily.

True, but Hochul is much less popular than Cuomo, New York has been engulfed by a renewed crime wave over the past few years, and Cuomo had much more appeal in the NYC metropolitan area than she does. Mind you, I still expect her to win tomorrow, but if it's by a double-digit margin, that would show New York is completely unwinnable for Republicans.

Isn't crime down this year?

[KaiserDave]

What is everyone's final prediction for the margin here.

I don't think it will be close to single digits. Hochul +14 or +15 seems a bare minimum. So she wins a full term 57.5-42.5%.

I'd be shocked if Hochul wins by double digits at this point. If she does, then that means NY-GOV was fool's gold for the Republicans.

We'll see, it's still NY after all, and even in R-waves like 2010 and 2014, Cuomo won pretty easily.

True, but Hochul is much less popular than Cuomo, New York has been engulfed by a renewed crime wave over the past few years, and Cuomo had much more appeal in the NYC metropolitan area than she does. Mind you, I still expect her to win tomorrow, but if it's by a double-digit margin, that would show New York is completely unwinnable for Republicans.

I mean, New York IS unwinnable for Republicans so...

Anyhow, crime is down this year but the impression of crime is that it is high and that is what matters. I am predicting something like Hochul +8.

[ꙮ]

I would be pleasantly surprised with a double digit margin at this point. That being said I seriously doubt that Hochul loses. What I'll be most interested in is where she loses ground and where she gains it (if anywhere). Cuomo's been a chronic underperformer Upstate so it'll be interesting to see the trends with him off the ballot. The flip side of that is the downstate suburbs- I think Hochul is going to greatly underperform Cuomo in Long Island, Staten Island, and Rockland County.

[President Johnson]

There's hasn't been much talk about the Attorney General race here lately... James is obviously safe, but if Hochul actually underperforms, will James do much better? I guess Schumer will have the best performance of all statewide Democrats, including DiNapoli.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Wait, what's this now? I just started tuning in, it looks like Zeldin is killing it in NYC, but upstate is starting out surprisingly blue

[oldtimer]

Zeldin is winning Staten Island by a margin of 34% with 87% in.
Cuomo won it by 2.

In Queens, Zeldin is at 36% with 37% in, Molinaro got 18%.
In the Bronx, Zeldin is over performing Molinaro by 15%, he is already getting 15k more votes than Molinaro with 55% in.
In Brooklyn Zeldin is overperfoming Molinaro by 13%
In Manhattan Zeldin is overperforming Molinaro by 9%.

New York City doesn't look at this moment for Hochul.

But Hochul is beating Cuomo by 2 in Buffalo with 69% in, and by 1 in Putnam with 51% in.

It's upstate New York vs New York City once again.

[Duke of York]

So Zeldin could win this?

[oldtimer]

So Zeldin could win this?

If he holds in upstate New York, he could.

Look at Queens, Cuomo won it by a 61% margin, Hochul is only 26% ahead with 70% in.

[Duke of York]

So Zeldin could win this?

If he holds in upstate New York, he could.

Look at Queens, Cuomo won it by a 61% margin, Hochul is only 26% ahead with 70% in.

With a swing like that I’m starting to think he could.

[AGA]

So Zeldin could win this?

PredictIt has Hochul at 98 cents, so I doubt it. The Republican swings are not quite enough. He is bringing it within single digits, though.

EDIT: NBC called it for Hochul too.

[Thunder98]

Wow NY redder than PA! Hochul only won by 5.

[President Johnson]

This is beyond embarrassing, especially with Democrats doing much better nationally than expected. Anyway, a win is a win and nobody can take the title from first elected woman governor from Kathy anymore!

[oldtimer]

This is beyond embarrassing, especially with Democrats doing much better nationally than expected. Anyway, a win is a win and nobody can take the title from first elected woman governor from Kathy anymore!

Republicans have now 3 seats within N.Y.C borders, same as in 1980 and 1984.

Now Republicans have a deep bench of 12 Congressmen from all of New York's regions to run for Higher Office.

Democrats are better off "retiring" Hochul.
She cost them the House.

[Sir Mohamed]

Would James have done better if nominated? Maybe Hochul was just too uninspiring after all.

[oldtimer]

Would James have done better if nominated? Maybe Hochul was just too uninspiring after all.

I think what ought to have happened to Whitmer happened to Hochul instead.
Both come off as fairly mercurial and wooden and have identical policies.
 
Call it misogyny, but Zeldin had contrast by been a man and having campaign experience.
Dixon was just another mercurial and wooden candidate that was picked off the street at  random.

[President Johnson]

Would James have done better if nominated? Maybe Hochul was just too uninspiring after all.

Not sure, she's just 2-3 points ahead of Hochul's vote share so far. Even Schumer is only at 56%. Seems like a general underperformance by statewide Democrats. It's not just Hochul.

[iceman]

Would James have done better if nominated? Maybe Hochul was just too uninspiring after all.

Not sure, she's just 2-3 points ahead of Hochul's vote share so far. Even Schumer is only at 56%. Seems like a general underperformance by statewide Democrats. It's not just Hochul.

are there still a lot of mail ballots like in 2020?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

My initial thought is that there were just a good number of voters who wanted to send a message to the Democratic Party post-Cuomo administration. 

Is that possible? I mean, we've previously seen big swings after scandals.  IIRC, Rep. Joseph Cao (the politician, not my right-honorable moderate colleague) saw massive swings to his district in LA after his opponent's legal/ethical troubles.

[President Johnson]

Would James have done better if nominated? Maybe Hochul was just too uninspiring after all.

Not sure, she's just 2-3 points ahead of Hochul's vote share so far. Even Schumer is only at 56%. Seems like a general underperformance by statewide Democrats. It's not just Hochul.

are there still a lot of mail ballots like in 2020?

CNN says 92% are in. So even if the Democratic candidates get the lion's share here, Hochul won't win by double digits and Schumer and James just barely.

[amdcpus]

I think Zeldin has an outside shot at winning but my prediction is Hochul by 6%.

Let's see how it ends, but seems pretty close to what I guessed so far.

[Sir Mohamed]

Dems really need need to do an autopsy here how that could have happened. Schumer also underperformed.