NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates (user search)
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  NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates (search mode)
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Author Topic: NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates  (Read 110836 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: August 06, 2021, 08:34:52 AM »

Hillary Clinton campaign staffer teases idea of Gubernatorial campaign.

I mean, maybe? Genius political move by the NY Democratic Party if they could recruit her to be the savior of the office. Puts any AOC/Teachout/Nixon hopes dead on arrival as well. Party might even cancel the primary in that case.



Hillary would win the general, but she'd lose the primary.

The base hates her more than Cuomo.

What planet are you living on? The Dem base likes Hillary.

The Dem base is almost all Sanders supporters and believes Hillary should have dropped out in his favor in 2016.

Worked out really well in OH-11.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2021, 10:01:31 AM »

Guys, Cuomo isn't going to resign, be impeached, or lose the primary. Get over it. The general election is a tossup.

He's certainly going to be impeached.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2021, 11:24:41 AM »

I don't think Hochul can win a Democratic primary.

She like Gillibrand was a moderate upstate Democrat, she is a white woman, The Black base of the Democratic Party will want James or Williams or Sharpton....



Unless Hochul really screws up, I don't really see anyone trying to oust the state's first female gov after only a year.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: August 10, 2021, 11:45:13 AM »

I don't think Hochul can win a Democratic primary.

She like Gillibrand was a moderate upstate Democrat, she is a white woman, The Black base of the Democratic Party will want James or Williams or Sharpton....



Unless Hochul really screws up, I don't really see anyone trying to oust the state's first female gov after only a year.

I think she will have problems with Black voters, white cops/firefighters, etc. Likely D. Zeldin can make it a race now, because he will have EVERY police and fire union on his side

I think she will win by a decent margin. She has a year and a half to introduce herself to voters.

I think Zeldin can give her a run, he'll lock down EVERY cop in the state and firefighter, even some Black cops, and we know how ruthless police unions are now post-George Floyd...

You've said the same thing three times. Move on.

It's the truth.....

It's not though, but okay
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2021, 06:54:57 AM »

Among prominent New York Democrats, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is no longer alone in having once been a Blue Dog:

Kathy Hochul's past conservative positions raise eyebrows: report

If New York Democrats are well aware of her past, and still vote to give her the gubernatorial nomination in the 2022 primary, what will this say about the New York Democratic Party? 

People need to stop with this sh**t. Her past is irrelevant. Maybe focus on the positions she's held last 5 years versus 15 years ago?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2021, 05:20:58 AM »

It sounds like she'd be incredibly smart to bring Williams on board.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: August 25, 2021, 10:18:36 AM »

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: September 08, 2021, 02:46:57 PM »

I don't know why Zeldin is giving up his house seat for this. Seems like a completely idiotic way to throw away the remainder of his political career.

isn't he likely to be redistricted out anyway?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: September 14, 2021, 01:16:42 PM »

Hochul fav is 42/17, including 32/25 among Reps

https://www.scribd.com/document/525193942/SNY0921-Crosstabs
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2021, 04:33:30 PM »

It's still early, but Hochul seems like a perfect fit for the state at large.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2021, 05:25:23 AM »

It's still early, but Hochul seems like a perfect fit for the state at large.

Interestingly there are many parallels to Gilibrand: Both started off as a congresswoman in a red district with relative moderate views and then were unexpectedly elevated to higher office and became more liberal. However, as I stated earlier in the thread, I find Hochul much more likeable. Both apparently know and like each other though and I'm certain Gilibrand will endorse and campaign for Hochul.

Gillibrand probably would have lost a primary in 2010 if Obama and the National Democrats hadn't intervened, and I wouldn't be shocked if something similar happened to Hochul.

Hochul seems to have good favor so far, now that she will have the name rec as governor for a year, I don't see why she wouldn't win the primary at this point.

Also, James also has a positive net fav in polls, but a lot of times its like 38/20 or something, with ~40% not being sure. I think her name rec is a bit overestimated here.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2021, 12:53:59 PM »

I don't think most GOP voters actually approve of her so far, they just approve of her not being Cuomo

Even so, New York Republicans seem to be less Trumpy than other state GOPers, so it seems possible to me you have a small base that would still vote for Hochul over an R, or at least think about it. (versus other states where it's like 90/10 no matter what)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2021, 12:56:13 PM »

I don't think most GOP voters actually approve of her so far, they just approve of her not being Cuomo

Even so, New York Republicans seem to be less Trumpy than other state GOPers, so it seems possible to me you have a small base that would still vote for Hochul over an R, or at least think about it. (versus other states where it's like 90/10 no matter what)
She hasn't governed like the Blue Dog she was in Congress, so I don't see her doing any better than say 15-20% of Republicans.

Which is still good enough IMO. She seems palatable enough, where she could be an Ossoff type. Where they are pretty damn liberal in their actions and votes, but their persona comes off much more 'moderate'. A very winning formula.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: September 26, 2021, 04:19:56 PM »

I don't think most GOP voters actually approve of her so far, they just approve of her not being Cuomo

Even so, New York Republicans seem to be less Trumpy than other state GOPers, so it seems possible to me you have a small base that would still vote for Hochul over an R, or at least think about it. (versus other states where it's like 90/10 no matter what)
She hasn't governed like the Blue Dog she was in Congress, so I don't see her doing any better than say 15-20% of Republicans.

Which is still good enough IMO. She seems palatable enough, where she could be an Ossoff type. Where they are pretty damn liberal in their actions and votes, but their persona comes off much more 'moderate'. A very winning formula.

Ossoff never ran on the same ticket as the most hated governor in recent history

Hochul has pretty much done everything possible to distance herself, and she really hasn't seemed close to Cuomo at all since 2018.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: December 09, 2021, 02:58:14 PM »

Wow, that’s shocking. This race was always going to be safe Hochul but I really liked Tish. I guess I’m on board with Jumaane now!

Why not Hochul?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: March 11, 2022, 07:59:24 AM »

Emerson's crosstabs are always wonky, but this particular poll has Hochul's approval underwater and her approval % nearly the same between Independents and Republicans. Lots of stuff that would be new since those are all things we haven't seen in any other poll.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2022, 12:25:56 PM »

Emerson (yes, I know, but it’s interesting) have polled the AG and gubernatorial races with Cuomo as a late entry, and the results are… disappointing. Particularly his bizarre hypocritical strength in the gov race.



I still don't get the hate for Emerson on this forum, or for Trafalgar.

They don't show as rosy numbers for Democrats like Marist and their other favorites do. Narrative > accuracy.

No, both pollsters have objectively had major blunders in the past.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #17 on: April 28, 2022, 08:11:18 AM »

Hochul at +18 approval per Morning Consult

https://morningconsult.com/2022/04/28/governor-approval-ratings-2022-election/
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: May 03, 2022, 08:34:29 AM »

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #19 on: June 27, 2022, 03:49:19 PM »

Lee Zeldin (and especially Guiliani) do not strike me as serious candidates, so Hochul should have an easy time at least defining her opponents and how out of step they are with NY.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #20 on: June 28, 2022, 08:07:15 AM »

what do people think will happen in the Lieutenant Governor primary? I think Delgado wins but slightly underperforms  Hochul.

Either Archila or Delgado wins by a margin that's in recount territory.
It’s not going to be anywhere near that close. I had no idea who Archila was before a few days ago.

I also think it's underestimated the power of an endorsement by the gubernatorial candidate. Hochul has endorsed Delgado, and he's her running mate, so that's an automatic for most people.

Sort of similar is in PA. No one really knew statewide who Austin Davis was, but they knew Shapiro endorsed him and was his preferred running mate. He then went onto get 63% of the vote basically purely bc of that.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: June 29, 2022, 07:21:12 AM »

I'm sorry, what kind of nonsense headline is this? This is not a "Competitive" race in the fall???

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #22 on: June 29, 2022, 07:21:46 AM »

what do people think will happen in the Lieutenant Governor primary? I think Delgado wins but slightly underperforms  Hochul.

Either Archila or Delgado wins by a margin that's in recount territory.
It’s not going to be anywhere near that close. I had no idea who Archila was before a few days ago.

I also think it's underestimated the power of an endorsement by the gubernatorial candidate. Hochul has endorsed Delgado, and he's her running mate, so that's an automatic for most people.

Sort of similar is in PA. No one really knew statewide who Austin Davis was, but they knew Shapiro endorsed him and was his preferred running mate. He then went onto get 63% of the vote basically purely bc of that.

ha and what do you know, the LG race in NY results practically mirror the PA LG dem results
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: June 30, 2022, 07:55:19 AM »

NYT is now showing <95% for both races. Was there really only 1.3M total turnout with the two parties combined?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #24 on: July 17, 2022, 04:19:53 PM »

After Q2 fundraising, Hochul has $11.7M cash on hand. Zeldin.... $1.6M.

https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-new-york-city-campaigns-lee-zeldin-d8ca729f69463f8fa618ff8672636819?utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter
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