NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Calthrina950]

Hillary would be a good governor, but the RGA would spend millions in NY

Malliotakis or Lazio or someone would run against her

But if a retread like Rick Lazio reemerges, it would lead to a Zeldin or a Palumbo or some other rightwinger to run....

Then the RGA might as well light their money on fire, because there is no way Clinton would lose. Plus Cinton already beat Lazio in 2000, when NY was much less blue.

At the statewide level, but not the presidential level. Gore won NY 60-35% over Bush that year, winning by a slightly wider margin than Biden did over Trump last year.

[Calthrina950]

2014 GOP nominee Rob Astorino (lost by a 14 point blowout) considering another run:

https://brooklyn.news12.com/former-westchester-county-executive-astorino-considers-2022-run-for-governor

That's still closer than the typical margin we see in presidential or Senatorial races. 2014 began the pattern of Cuomo performing badly in Upstate New York (where he is unpopular), as Astorino managed to win Monroe and Ulster Counties against him. He probably could replicate that performance again next year if he were the nominee, although that would still be far from a victory.

[Calthrina950]

Stefanik is future House leadership. She will not be making a suicide run for Governor.

This helps to explain why she's moved so far-right in the past few years. It's an effort to curry the favor of the Republican base, and to consolidate her support among her colleagues for when she eventually makes her leadership bid.

[Calthrina950]

Stefanik is future House leadership. She will not be making a suicide run for Governor.

This helps to explain why she's moved so far-right in the past few years. It's an effort to curry the favor of the Republican base, and to consolidate her support among her colleagues for when she eventually makes her leadership bid.

I think it'll backfire on her. She didn't have much of a profile before, but since she's become so vocally awful, NY Dems have a good reason to nuke her district.

How would they do so? From what I've read, they're more likely to combine the districts of Tenney and Reed into one, which would open the door for Brindisi to mount a rematch effort.

[Calthrina950]

Lee Zeldin randomly goes full voter suppressionist, demands mandatory Voter ID.

https://twitter.com/leezeldin/status/1398836537702371328?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%...

Even with Cuomo's scandals, Zeldin has no chance, and going to the right on issues like this isn't going to help him win over moderate and independent voters. He'll be lucky if he manages to lose by "only" 10%, rather than the 20-25% margins Republicans typically lose by in New York.

[Calthrina950]

How do you see a Hochul vs Leticia James primary shaping up?

Kathy Hochul wins the primary. She then wins the general elections with around 51-52% of the vote.

Awful take. She will easily win the general. No Democrat would lose the general--not even Cuomo.

It's not 1994 anymore, no Republican has a chance in a deep blue state with modern polarization. This would be like a Democrat winning the Utah governor's race.

~snip~[/img]

reddit.com/r/punchablefaces

Massachusetts is different. They cream themselves to the idea of electing a moderate Republican to complement their Democratic legislature, and have done so the bulk of the last 25 years. The Democratic legislature typically blocks them from doing a lot of damage, although as Baker's tenure has proved, not all of it.

Are you of the view that Democratic states should not elect Republicans under any circumstances, even those who are moderate?

[Calthrina950]

They "look forward to working together," huh?

https://twitter.com/ZachReports/status/1427771641552064514

It seems like Hochul is actively trying to reach out to progressives within the Democratic Party. I'm starting to become more convinced that she will have a relatively easy path to reelection next year. If she continues with what she's doing, she will build a broad coalition that will help her going forward.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2021/09/02/de-blasio-sees-hope-in-gubernatorial-field-as-he-faces-political-wilderness-1390641

[de Blasio], who will leave office in four months due to term limits, has begun calling allies about a prospective run for governor in the wide-open Democratic primary next June.

De Blasio phoned several labor leaders in recent days to gauge support, a union affiliate familiar with the previously unreported conversations told POLITICO.

“He’s letting the leaders know that he’s considering running for governor,” said the person, who requested anonymity to speak freely about the preliminary steps.

I feel confident in saying that Hochul would defeat de Blasio if he challenged her in the primary. Hochul seems to be reaching out to all factions of the Party and is building a good reputation, while de Blasio is despised by both Democrats and Republicans, and his presidential campaign was an utter failure.

[Calthrina950]

I don't know why Zeldin is giving up his house seat for this. Seems like a completely idiotic way to throw away the remainder of his political career.

Agreed. Zeldin might have had a slight chance against the scandal-plagued Cuomo, but against the scandal-free Hochul, he has none whatsoever. He's headed to a ~20-pt. loss next year.

I don't know why Zeldin is giving up his house seat for this. Seems like a completely idiotic way to throw away the remainder of his political career.

I'm fine with it. Beyond just being awful in the typical Republican way, he has one of the most punchable faces of any politician I have ever seen.

Along with Stefanik, Zeldin was one of Trump's staunchest defenders during his impeachment, and that elevated his profile with the Republican base. It also revealed the rottenness of his character. He doesn't even have a moderate voting record in the vein of other Northeastern Republicans like Katko, Fitzpatrick, and Smith.

[Calthrina950]

Great news!

May the great people of New York finally get support a governor that backs Democrats.

I assume you will not support Hochul if she wins the primary.

[Calthrina950]

A primary with James, Williams, and DeBlasio all running at the same time would certainly work to Hochul's advantage. Her opposition is divided.

[Calthrina950]

Jesus… imagine accepting an endorsement from these crooks. I’ll be supporting Hochul if this is the alternative.
https://twitter.com/zackfinknews/status/1454149821254746113?s=21

Although Cuomo is a reprehensible human being and it was absolutely necessary to remove him from office, it does seem to me that James is an opportunist. Running for the Governorship, so soon after those scandals? And against an incumbent who is not controversial and has been governing as a Generic Democrat? I don't understand it. James would have been well-advised to run for reelection as Attorney General instead.

[Calthrina950]

Looking forward to see all the political careers of these clowns ended in defeat. They're desperately attempting to replace a scandal-free governor who has governed like a Mainstream Democrat just for opportunistic reasons.

Jumaane is the only one who will still be in elected office and may run for something else (like congress) in the future.

For a long while, I had thought that Hochul would sail to the nomination without difficulty or substantive opposition. I'm surprised that both James and Williams decided to go for it. Their ambition and desire for greater political power clearly won out over other considerations. And DeBlasio is disgracing himself by pursuing a run.

[Calthrina950]

I still don't understand why James ran in the first place. With her dropping out, that helps Hochul.

[Calthrina950]

According to Politico, James just wasn't engaged by the gubernatorial campaign in the same way that she's been engaged by all of her previous campaigns, was & remains focused on doing Trump stuff as A.G., & thus concluded that it never really made much sense to try & switch jobs in the first place. Honestly, it just sounds like she ran for Governor because it's what was near-universally expected of her - after all, not only "Almost Governor," but she literally brought Cuomo down - even though it may not have been what she really wanted to do. Which, y'know: good for her, unironically. To paraphrase Endgame (sorry, I'm on a bit of a Marvel kick right now in preparation for No Way Home), "everyone fails at who they're supposed to be, but the measure of a person, of a [public servant], is how well they succeed at being who they are."

She possesses an ability to reflect and to learn from her mistakes, an ability which many politicians on both sides of the aisle lack. That was especially true of Andrew Cuomo, and of course, it's true of Trump also. I still do entertain hopes that James will be able to nail Trump on something.

[Calthrina950]

Suozzi apparently thinks Hochul losing is guaranteed:

https://twitter.com/freedlander/status/1478398077241286662?t=FQdZxi4ocVyNLbVTxKN...

I'm not some huge Hochul stan or anything but this guy is such a prick

Hopefully, he loses. I don't particularly like Hochul either, with her coronavirus policies being the most objectionable to me, but she's better than the alternatives at this stage. Williams is too far to the left for the state, and Zeldin (the likely Republican nominee) is a staunch Trumpist who voted to decertify the election results.

[Calthrina950]

Suozzi apparently thinks Hochul losing is guaranteed:

https://twitter.com/freedlander/status/1478398077241286662?t=FQdZxi4ocVyNLbVTxKN...

I'm not some huge Hochul stan or anything but this guy is such a prick

Hopefully, he loses. I don't particularly like Hochul either, with her coronavirus policies being the most objectionable to me, but she's better than the alternatives at this stage. Williams is too far to the left for the state, and Zeldin (the likely Republican nominee) is a staunch Trumpist who voted to decertify the election results.

Talk about too far left - Williams literally supports locking down our schools.

That's true. I think his overall policy record is one that would be poisonous to the average swing voter, and he's not the most ethical politician either. But New York is a state that hasn't been particularly blessed with its Governors over the past few decades. The only decent Governor the state has had this century is George Pataki.

[Calthrina950]

I have a feeling Suozzi becomes increasingly desperate in his crusade against "interim governor Hochul".

https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1481844102849249283

Why did he run against her in the first place? They're both establishment liberal Democrats.

[Calthrina950]

de Blasio not running:

https://twitter.com/BilldeBlasio/status/1483433356293464065?s=20

de Blasio would have finished dead last if he had run, so this makes little difference. Hopefully, he sinks into obscurity now that he is no longer Mayor of New York City.

[Calthrina950]

Sources claiming Hochul will actually renew and expand (including children 2+) the mask mandate tomorrow.

Curious to see how she'll fare by further infuriating parents.

The arrogance of elite politicians is endless

Hochul, Newsom, and Pritzker-the Governors of the three largest Democratic States-have certainly taken a much stricter approach to the pandemic than the Governors of the two largest Republican States (Abbott and DeSantis).

[Calthrina950]

Emerson (yes, I know, but it’s interesting) have polled the AG and gubernatorial races with Cuomo as a late entry, and the results are… disappointing. Particularly his bizarre hypocritical strength in the gov race.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1502029691376570384

I still don't get the hate for Emerson on this forum, or for Trafalgar.

[Calthrina950]

Emerson (yes, I know, but it’s interesting) have polled the AG and gubernatorial races with Cuomo as a late entry, and the results are… disappointing. Particularly his bizarre hypocritical strength in the gov race.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1502029691376570384

I still don't get the hate for Emerson on this forum, or for Trafalgar.

They don't show as rosy numbers for Democrats like Marist and their other favorites do. Narrative > accuracy.

Emerson and Trafalgar are accurate and relatively high-rated, and I struggle to recall a result that was not logical or that closely approximated what happened.

[Calthrina950]

Emerson (yes, I know, but it’s interesting) have polled the AG and gubernatorial races with Cuomo as a late entry, and the results are… disappointing. Particularly his bizarre hypocritical strength in the gov race.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1502029691376570384

I still don't get the hate for Emerson on this forum, or for Trafalgar.

They don't show as rosy numbers for Democrats like Marist and their other favorites do. Narrative > accuracy.

No, both pollsters have objectively had major blunders in the past.

Then who do you consider to be the best pollsters?

[Calthrina950]

Its over

Obviously, but for reasons I've outlined elsewhere, I wouldn't be surprised if Zeldin cracked the 40% mark.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1581476555343114240?cxt=HHwWgMCt3Ymjx...
Could Zeldin pull this one off?

I don't think so, but I think he has a real shot at coming within single digits, if the polls are anywhere close to accurate.