FL-GOV 2022 Democratic Underperformance

[omar04]

What happened in this election for the Democratic candidate to win 937k less votes than in 2018? Desantis' popularity is the obvious explanation, but it appears that Democrats generally stayed home instead of crossing the aisle.

[SnowLabrador]

Florida Democrats are infamous for their incompetence. Enough said.

[Sir Mohamed]

Dem incompetence and long term trends were obvious factors. Especially the influx of Midwestern and/or white retirees plus the shift among Cuban Americans towards the GOP. In addition, Crist was an uninspiring, has-been candidate that lost multiple statewide races on multiple ballots (R, I and D) before.

[wbrocks67]

I think you answered your own question. Dems just stayed home, we know for a fact that partisan turnout was awful on their end. Republican turnout actually wasn't anything amazing, but it just looks better because Dem turnout was so bad. No money was spent on Dems behalf, and Dems in FL just seem deflated.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's obvious it was IAN that's what happen

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Crist ran an unexpectedly horrible campaign, doing basically everything wrong.

[Suburbia]

Crist ran an unexpectedly horrible campaign, doing basically everything wrong.

[omar04]

Dem incompetence and long term trends were obvious factors. Especially the influx of Midwestern and/or white retirees plus the shift among Cuban Americans towards the GOP. In addition, Crist was an uninspiring, has-been candidate that lost multiple statewide races on multiple ballots (R, I and D) before.

Was it those groups (particularly Cuban Americans) defecting or voting for Desantis for the first time? I suspect more it's more of the latter.

Crist ran an unexpectedly horrible campaign, doing basically everything wrong.

Yeah, I'm not sure what happened there. From what I can tell he let up on Desantis during hurricane Ian and was short on funding. Crist also has a lot of losses on his record.

[2016]

Dem incompetence and long term trends were obvious factors. Especially the influx of Midwestern and/or white retirees plus the shift among Cuban Americans towards the GOP. In addition, Crist was an uninspiring, has-been candidate that lost multiple statewide races on multiple ballots (R, I and D) before.

Was it those groups (particularly Cuban Americans) defecting or voting for Desantis for the first time? I suspect more it's more of the latter.

Crist ran an unexpectedly horrible campaign, doing basically everything wrong.

Yeah, I'm not sure what happened there. From what I can tell he let up on Desantis during hurricane Ian and was short on funding. Crist also has a lot of losses on his record.

Crist never ever had a chance EVEN if he had ran a perfect Campaign. Two Major Factors contributed to DeSantis big win: Hurricane IAN + his COVID Policies. Most people in Florida voted for DeSantis because he defied the Democratic Propaganda Machine and kept the State open. Crist openly said in various Events he held throughout the State that he would bring back Mask Mandates among other things.
A third factor was his poor Running Mate Choice with Karla Hernandez-Mats who turnout out to be quite a dumpster. Also, the Voter Registration Changes: R's had a 300,000+ Registration lead heading into the Election with many Voters coming from northeastern lockdown States such as New York, New Jersey + California in the west.

Finally Crist became a single issue Candidate for the Final Month of the Campaign turning into an "Anti-Abortion Crist" ignoring Inflation, the Border among other things. Not surprising since he had no Record to run on having voted with Pelosi, Schumer (from 2017-2021) and Biden (since 2021) 100 % of the time since he got elected during the 2016 Elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are winning Jax mayor race Deegan 54/46 replacement of R mayor,  and it's a long way to go til the SEN primary, Boswell has the advantage Bernie endorsed Tester, Kunce, Boswell, Brown for the Filibuster proof Trifecta, he was on the View. Desantis Stardom will fade once he loses this primary and he will indies and D's will cross over and vote Trump and Desantis is getting crushed in the South even if he wins IA and NH, DeSantis needs Afro Americans to vote for him and if anything like myself if IL is competetive I will vote Trump not DeSantis

Emerson had Trump tied with Biden in FL

It's wave insurance we need these wave seats due to Tester and Manchin to secure the Filibuster proof Trifecta

That why Rs lost WI by 11 Biden is at 50 percent and so is Trump but no poll has backed up 47/40 Rassy poll Trump over Biden because the Trump surge is with D's like myself whom want Trump in primary and Biden defeat Trump I'm GE lol IA is competetive Trump only up six on Biden in IA

[Pollster]

Re-upping these posts from the election night thread, bolded the key part:

I know we've mostly moved on from Florida, but I took a look this morning and it seems like DeSantis added about 500k votes to his 2018 total (not nothing!) whereas Crist fell an absolutely stunning 1 million+ votes short of Gillum's total.

Democratic turnout failure in the state really can't be overstated. The flip side of the coin also suggests that DeSantis is potentially not the driver of Democratic base anger that some think.

I’m not sweating it. You can’t extrapolate too much from Florida. It’s not very representative of the country. Democrats there are pretty conservative even. I can tell you don’t say gay would be taken a lot worst out west or in the Midwest than it would be in florida

I've conducted more research in Florida than any other state in my entire career and can tell you that this is decisively not true. With the exception of the Cuban population there is both fundamentally and functionally nothing different about Florida's electorate than other states with similar profiles.

The Florida Democratic Party's incompetence has become a meme but for good reason - and I worry that the "memeification" of it is actually causing people to not fully understand the problem. The party's strategic leaders are completely disconnected from reality with regards to fundraising and resource allocation, horrible at identifying and recruiting candidates, and have completely disregarded building any kind of turnout infrastructure. Politically, the party's legislative leaders and other key figures are feckless and inspire no confidence in voters, donors, or national party decision-makers. These two things are particularly detrimental because they only serve to feed each other and cause a doom loop rather than having one make up for the other. The Texas Democratic Party had similar problems for a while, but the difference is that in Florida there is no end in sight.

I don't mean to lash out and this isn't directed at you at all - I've just been watching this state party fail for so long despite so many people (myself included) shouting at them that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

[wbrocks67]

Crist ran an unexpectedly horrible campaign, doing basically everything wrong.

Eh, Crist was pretty uninspiring and wasn't anything spectacular but I don't think it's really his fault. Demings was a top tier candidate and she didn't do much better. Without much $$ outside help, coordinated messaging, and Dems actually being energized in the state, both in hindsight were always DOA.

[Galeel]

Democrats nominated a former GOP governor and two time proven statewide loser, not hard to see how this happened.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Democrats nominated a former GOP governor and two time proven statewide loser, not hard to see how this happened.

This time makes four, actually.

[Sir Mohamed]

Democrats nominated a former GOP governor and two time proven statewide loser, not hard to see how this happened.

This time makes four, actually.

Almost counts as perennial candidate, doesn't it?

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's an all-of-the-above situation: candidate quality, DeSantis' relative popularity, Florida Democrats' incompetence, investment differences, trends, turnout differences, etc. It all yielded a perfect storm of Florida giving the rest of the country the biggest middle finger yet, out of so many it's given in election years.

However, if the Florida GOP wasn't so crafty in waiting until after the election to pass their six week ban, and they did pass it prior to November 8, 2022 it still probably would have decreased the margins of victory for DeSantis and Rubio. Obviously they would still win substantially though. There is only so much that would do.

Going forward it might be the only thing Florida Democrats have now to run on in the state.

[2016]

It's an all-of-the-above situation: candidate quality, DeSantis' relative popularity, Florida Democrats' incompetence, investment differences, trends, etc. It all yielded a perfect storm of Florida giving the rest of the country the biggest middle finger yet, out of so many it's given in election years.

However, if the Florida GOP wasn't so crafty in waiting until after the election to pass their six week ban, and they did pass it prior to November 8, 2022 it still probably would have decreased the margins of victory for DeSantis and Rubio. Obviously they would still win substantially though. There is only so much that would do.

Going forward it might be the only thing Florida Democrats have now to run on in the state.

LOL, Demings and Crist became single Issue Candidates for the Final 4 Weeks of the Campaign running attack after attack ad on abortion against DeSantis and Rubio and it did not work. The Economy will still be the Top Issue for Voters in 2024 and Florida has among the 5th lowest UE in the Country about 2.5 to 3%.

Finally as long as the Voter Registrations don't change (Republicans currently own a 453,000 edge) D's have no shot at a Statewide Win unless Trump or DeSantis become really unpopular in the State. Plus Rick Scott can delf finance his Campaign which was the case for Rubio last year.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Dems didn't turn out

[2016]

Dems didn't turn out

Wrong. The Overall Turnout in 2022 was 53 %, in line with 2014 which was 51 %
They were never going to replicate the Turnout from 2018 which was 63 %.

[ModerateRadical]

Dems didn't turn out

Wrong. The Overall Turnout in 2022 was 53 %, in line with 2014 which was 51 %
They were never going to replicate the Turnout from 2018 which was 63 %.

Is 2014 really a good baseline, though? I'm not sure about Florida specifically, but across the board, turnout in 2014 was largely considered abysmal.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I don't realy think you could say that it was down to democrats being uninspired. Desantis was a polarizing national figure, if it was a 9-10 point loss that could he been plausible but Christ lost by more than 20 points. There has to be something deaper beyond him simply being an uninspiring canidate.

[Pollster]

I don't realy think you could say that it was down to democrats being uninspired. Desantis was a polarizing national figure, if it was a 9-10 point loss that could he been plausible but Christ lost by more than 20 points. There has to be something deaper beyond him simply being an uninspiring canidate.

As noted above, DeSantis added about 500k votes to his 2018 total while Crist fell just short of a million votes of Gillum's total. Even if we assume those ~500k new DeSantis voters all voted for Gillum in 2018 (extremely unlikely given the state's notably rapid growth), the remaining dropoff and frankly pitiful final vote count for Crist (a statewide Democrat barely breaking 3 million votes in post-2016 Florida in a high turnout election is simply embarrassing) represents a catastrophic turnout failure. No other real way to look at it. Whether it's Crist being uninspiring or the state party not knowing its right hand from its left is certainly worth a conversation, though.

[wbrocks67]

I don't realy think you could say that it was down to democrats being uninspired. Desantis was a polarizing national figure, if it was a 9-10 point loss that could he been plausible but Christ lost by more than 20 points. There has to be something deaper beyond him simply being an uninspiring canidate.

Democrats being uninspired in general is a way bigger issue than Crist specifically being an uninspiring candidate though. It goes way beyond Crist.